Trump wanted to make stopping the war in Ukraine a top priority and expected to accomplish it in 24 hours; Polymarket initially gave 70% chance of ceasefire by day 100, but that has collapsed to less than 3% currently, indicating Trump has capitulated to hawks on Ukraine.
factualpending
Speaker
David WooEvidence Quote
“At the beginning of his presidency, Poly Market was giving a 70% chance that he was going to stop the war basically by 100 days into his presidency. And now it's right now currently less than 3% chance.”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:05:28 AM
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