If Trump made a transactional deal on Taiwan, it would likely involve the US accepting that Taiwan is not worth defending US lives for, extracting 50% of TSMC's manufacturing capacity as compensation, which Xi would 'take in a heartbeat'—a deal where Trump exchanges strategic asset for economic value.

forecastpending

Speaker

Mike Froman

Evidence Quote

part of this grand bargain given our how we now understand the president's both transactional and the transaction begins with economics would be very happy to say to President Sheay of course we're not going to spill American blood for Taiwan I mean we have a trade deficit with them we don't even like them all we need is 50% of TSMC and that would be a bargain I think President Xi would take in a heartbeat

Source

The Challenge of ChinaThe Aspen Institute
Created: 8/11/2026, 6:35:07 AM

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