forecast
US hollows out presence to obscure withdrawal
Rather than a clean break that would trigger a European 'freak out' and action, the US is hollowing out its presence in Europe while maintaining enough appearance that working-level NATO officials see no problem, masking the reality that what matters is whether the US would actually act in a 2029-2030 contingency under a Vance presidency.
forecastpending
Speaker
Max BergmannEvidence Quote
“the problem is that what matters is really at the political level of what the u.s would actually do in this kind of 2029 2030 contingency with j.d vance as president”
Created: 6/14/2026, 1:59:52 AM
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