Patel forecasts 2032 for an AI that can learn on the job as organically and quickly as humans for any white collar work—e.g. an AI video editor that after six months has as deep an understanding of his preferences and audience as a human would—reasoning that 7 years is a long time (GPT-1 was only 7 years ago) so finding a way to make models learn on the job is not implausible.

forecastpending

Speaker

Dwarkesh Patel

Evidence Quote

It doesn't seem implausible to me that over the next 7 years, we'll find some way to get these models to actually learn on the job.

Source

Why I don’t think AGI is right around the cornerDwarkesh Patel
Created: 6/13/2026, 7:00:29 PM

My Notes

Loading notes...