Claims

The West currently has the advantage of knowing exactly who its next adversaries likely are—Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea (the 'authoritarian quad')—with approximately 99% probability that the next major war will be with one of these powers.

Xi Jinping is preparing China for war quite possibly over Taiwan, as evidenced by steps to allow rapid reserve mobilization, construction of bomb shelters throughout the country, food rationing and storage for crisis, and other indicators typical of regimes preparing for war.

Western failure to deter Vladimir Putin from annexing Crimea in 2014 and invading Ukraine in 2022 established a precedent that creates urgency around Taiwan; if China successfully takes Taiwan, it will not stop there and will continue territorial expansion in its near-abroad, making Taiwan deterrence a critical defining priority of transatlantic statecraft.

The Belt and Road Initiative is entering a second phase following initial hard infrastructure spending, where People's Liberation Army naval presence, intelligence presence, or both follow shortly after BRI memoranda are signed, as evidenced in the Pacific Island region, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.

The Syrian Assad regime's collapse represents a major loss for Iran's proxy network strategy, as Syria had been a critical hub for Iranian influence and military presence in the Levant.