Claims

Control of maritime chokepoints (Gibraltar, Panama Canal, Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz, Singapore Strait) is historically the foundation of imperial power, allowing toll extraction from global trade, and the U.S. has maintained these chokepoints open for free unlike historical empires.

Mercantilism, where governments pick economic winners and losers based on national priorities rather than free market signals, is how the world operated for centuries and is the historical norm; the globalized free market is a recent and potentially temporary exception.

The policies being implemented resemble those used against Japan in the 1990s (technology controls, trade pressure) following Japan's rise as a competitive threat; the question is whether the US can avoid Japan's lost decade outcome.

There are striking historical similarities between the current moment and the 1930s, including trade wars, potential capital wars, and breakdown of the global order.

There are striking similarities between the current period and the 1930s, including trade wars and potential capital wars, plus a breakdown of the global order.

There are five forces that drive transitions between world orders: debt-money cycles that increase until unsustainable, internal political polarization over money and values leading to civil conflict, geopolitical order changes as rising powers challenge declining powers, climate and natural disasters (which have killed more people and toppled more orders than wars), and technological innovation particularly AI.

Tariffs are part of a historical pattern of order transition used by countries experiencing debt crises and internal conflict: write down debt, extract tariff revenue, build up domestic industry, adopt nationalist and protectionist policies, and increase militarization—as seen in 1930s Germany and repeatedly throughout history.

There are striking historical similarities between the current moment and the 1930s, including trade wars, potential capital wars, and breakdown of the global order.