Anna Ashton
About
Director of China corporate affairs and US-China team at Eurasia Group, expert on Xi Jinping's power consolidation and Taiwan dynamics
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Claims by Anna Ashton (3)
Xi Jinping has consolidated power to a level not achieved by any modern Chinese leader except Mao, controlling all top leadership posts with allies unlikely to push back on his decisions, which increases his capacity to implement goals quickly but also increases risk of miscalculation and policy mistakes without checks and balances.
The possibility of revolution or sweeping political change in China is minimal because Xi has built power safeguards through control consolidation, there is no opposition faction with real power to organize resistance, and most Chinese citizens have experienced improving living standards during Xi's tenure, making revolution unlikely despite zero-COVID protests.
China will not invade Taiwan in the near term because military success is uncertain, Chinese and US military leaders do not believe invasion is likely, and invasion contradicts China's core interests; however, escalating US rhetoric and Congressional pressure over Taiwan recognition may trigger Chinese military action short of invasion.
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