The IEA has described the Hormuz closure as the greatest global energy security challenge in history.

Energy sits upstream of everything: wages, inflation, industrial output, wars won and lost.

Doomberg has published a recent piece titled 'After Hormuz' that takes a long view on structural shift that could occur post-conflict, focusing on what markets are getting wrong beyond immediate noise

The Strait of Hormuz, just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, normally channels around 20% of global seaborne oil trade and is now, for all practical purposes, shut for the first time in modern history.

Refining margins will probably be higher in the coming years as countries increase storage buffers from 30 days to 3 months or longer, extending demand for refining capacity.

After the 1970s oil crisis, within 10 years oil demand was the same, showing the pattern of crisis-driven adjustment followed by resumed growth.

The 2026 economic environment is already navigating a tariff war, persistent inflation, and a fracturing global order before the Hormuz crisis, making crisis conditions compound pre-existing stressors