Newmont Mining, the world's largest gold producer, has massively underperformed and currently trades near its 1981 level, reflecting decades of value destruction despite paying dividends; this extended underperformance is typical of a sector that has been out of favor.

Recent panic selling in the S&P 500 (today's sharp decline) represents a healthy short-term signal because it tests the 20-day moving average, which has repeatedly provided strong support; historically such panics are followed by bounces as put-option buyers get caught off guard when the market rallies.

The S&P 500 has been up approximately 17-18% since the uptrend started in November, whereas the NASDAQ is underperforming and tech stocks are lagging, which is a warning sign that the rally is running out of steam because normally the NASDAQ should be significantly outperforming.

Barron's March cover story 'Bet on the Bull' declaring markets poised to go higher, combined with AI appearing in trivial consumer products ('AI in toothbrush machines'), signals we have reached a frothy market peak similar to late-stage bubbles where breathless media coverage reflects excessive optimism.

Apple is forming a double-top pattern near critical support, and if it breaks below ~$166, it could experience a precipitous fall of 15-17% that will severely damage market momentum because Apple carries significant weight and any breakdown will trigger sharp sell-offs across the broader market.

Gold is using Fibonacci extension analysis to target the 2355-2360 range in the near term, then will likely pull back from a multi-year bull-flag pattern; the monthly chart shows gold at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension of a pattern dating back to the 2015 low, which projects a longer-term target of 2670-2700.

The general lack of public interest in gold, silver, and mining stocks (most people do not want to buy them) is a positive contrarian signal because it indicates the sector is deeply out of favor and undervalued, creating conditions for substantial upside when sentiment turns.

Bitcoin has hit a new nominal high and entered a parabolic feeding-frenzy move with straight-up bars that make Rilion nervous; after the gap-up and pullback, it is now consolidating in a bull flag / pennant pattern, which if it resolves upward could push Bitcoin to $100,000, but the structure is similar to overbought consolidations that often precede sharp reversals.

Traders should never try to pick market tops; instead, they should identify when overbought assets consolidate with high volatility (bull flags, pennants) and develop a clear exit strategy: if the position breaks down, exit; if it breaks up, scale in; most traders fail because they lack a plan and hold until massive losses.

Oil has put in a rounding bottom and is breaking out through resistance; it ran higher after a breakout a couple weeks ago, and Rilion expects it to find resistance around $90-95 per barrel based on measuring the volatility depth from the base and projecting it forward onto the breakout level.

Freeport-McMoRan (major copper producer) is leading copper higher with a 15% YTD gain vs copper's 5%, and it is breaking out above recent highs; short-term Rilion is bullish on copper miners (third-best performing sector), but longer-term he expects a reversion because Freeport is at the upper end of a very volatile 4-year range with repeated sharp selloffs.

The S&P 500 could pull back to $460-470 per share (the Spy), which is only an 8-9% pullback; however, Rilion expects a much larger 15-20% pullback this year to the $410-430 range (a Fibonacci retracement zone between 0.618 and 0.38), followed by a potential 40-50% crash down to 2018-2020 lows.

The TSX will likely perform well after a financial reset and subsequent multi-year commodity super-cycle because it is resource-heavy with significant weighting to gold, energy, and commodities, which will lead the recovery out of the recession.

Energy stocks are on fire and threatening to start another huge move; they broke out a month-and-a-half ago and are screaming higher with a large pennant formation that could trigger another massive leg up.

Rilion publishes his charts and analysis daily on The Technical Traders website, shares all the trades he executes (focusing on ETFs), and has written a book titled 'Asset Revs: How to Hold Only Equities or Assets That Are Rising in Value Even During Bear Markets' that teaches his investing philosophy.

Stan Weinstein's four-stage market cycle framework (stage one = basing, stage two = breakout/uptrend, stage three = topping phase, stage four = downtrend) is the foundational analytical model guiding Rilion's market interpretation.

The New York Stock Exchange up-down volume ratio is an indicator Rilion uses to detect when there is panic selling in the market (when average investors are dumping shares into weakness).

A bear flag is a chart pattern where price sells off sharply, then consolidates sideways (the flag), creating a pause before the downtrend resumes in the same direction; repeated bear flags in a stock signal continuing downward pressure.

A V-shaped bottom is a chart pattern where price crashes sharply and then reverses sharply upward without a gradual base building; it is difficult to trade because the reversal happens too quickly and traders often miss the move.

Momentum traders are a category of market participants who buy assets that are going up and sell when they start to decline; they create positive feedback loops on the way up (buying strength) and negative feedback on the way down (selling weakness), amplifying both rallies and crashes.