The war in Ukraine creates a short-term acceleration of fossil fuel reliance in developed markets (energy security fears) but longer-term shift toward renewable energy and domestic renewable sources, particularly in Europe, as nations recognize the failure of Merkel's dependence on Russian cheap gas and seek strategic energy independence.

Putin made the worst geopolitical decision by any leader since Eurasia Group's founding 25 years ago, with no good climb-down available because he cannot withdraw without losing his job and potentially his life, making the nuclear standoff with NATO unprecedented in risk since the Cuban Missile Crisis due to absence of any off-ramp.

Putin has little near-term risk of losing power because he has surrounded himself with loyalists, built institutional protection (presidential guard, security services), and the Russian security apparatus consists of intelligent operators rather than simple enforcers; the main risk to Putin comes from security services (3-5 year horizon) and public discontent from sanctions only at 5-10 year horizon.

The Ukraine war will likely not end during Putin's lifetime; it resembles the Israel-West Bank conflict where both sides claim the same land, making long-lasting peace impossible and instead creating cycles of ceasefires and peace deals that repeatedly fail, serving as a long-term geopolitical irritant.

Iran's supreme leader may die in 2023, and the succession process is opaque and not institutionalized, creating risk that the Revolutionary Guards use the leadership transition to consolidate power into a military dictatorship more aggressive in regional operations.

The geopolitical recession (absence of a country or group able and willing to lead globally) continues to deepen structurally and will persist, meaning cooperation on climate and technology will remain limited while security sphere cooperation (via NATO/US) continues due to Russia's threat.