Energy markets are still very well supplied, with oil in the low $60s, landed LNG in Europe around $11/MMBtu, and US natural gas costing about a medium Diet Coke per million BTU.

Once a critical mass of oil majors and midstream/service providers sets up in a region (e.g. Guyana), they tend to spread out and develop neighboring resources, which is why stabilizing Argentina's Vaca Muerta or achieving regime change in Venezuela could unlock multiple millions of barrels per day and is deflationary for oil.

Gold is behaving as though BRICS countries are reinstating it as a neutral reserve asset for settling international trade imbalances, and for gold to play that role it needs to be much higher; the US also has an interest in higher gold because it lets Treasury revalue its holdings to ease refinancing the wall of short-term debt.

The US government is encouraging stablecoin and crypto speculation (via the Genius Act requiring stablecoin operators to hold US treasuries) to manufacture steady demand for short-term treasuries; ultimately Treasury could issue special stablecoin treasuries paying below-market rates (e.g. 2% vs 4%), a form of financial repression masquerading as a risk asset class.

California is an energy crisis waiting to happen: it functions as two isolated fuel islands (north and south) with no major connecting or importing pipelines, requires a special gasoline blend, has only ~11 days of inventory, and has lost refineries down to about six — so a single major refinery outage (like the El Segundo Chevron fire that supplies ~40% of Southern California's jet fuel) can cause severe shortages.

Doge and the Trump administration's inability to significantly cut government spending is a disappointment.

Gold has tripled in price since Doomberg first started using it as a savings vehicle at scale, which is another way of saying it now takes three times as many dollars to buy an ounce — the primary purpose of gold being to measure dollar debasement.

The VIX behaves like the European natural gas (Dutch TTF) chart — spikes can be faded fairly reliably — but timing such tantrums is next to impossible because everyone trades the VIX and market makers ensure premium blows out or fills are poor.

Given a five-year lock-up choosing between the oil and uranium sectors, oil is the better bet because it is 'stone cold guaranteed' the world will burn more oil in five years than today, whereas uranium consumption growth is less certain — so allocate to volume-tied oil companies.

Cheap energy is a great foundation for economic growth, and the pair trades Doomberg watches as early crisis indicators (Landed LNG vs Brent, WTI vs Brent) are currently trading in harmony, signaling no significant stress in physical energy markets.

Offshore drillers should be avoided because they produce oil and are therefore price-takers in a deflationary market, no different from natural gas drillers.

Coffee tastes better out of the Doomberg mug.

Revaluing the US government's gold holdings (currently marked at $42/oz) to market would create roughly a trillion dollars of fiscal flexibility for Treasury without selling the gold — effectively creating money out of thin air, a backdoor form of QE that is bullish for gold, stocks, and Bitcoin.

When oil super-spikes due to a crisis, you should wait for it to drop 20% and then buy out-of-the-money puts, because a collapse from there is all but guaranteed — this is far better than trying to time the spike on the way up, which just burns premium waiting for a spike that may not come.

The greatest crisis facing the Trump administration is the wall of short-term debt left behind by Janet Yellen, and reframing administration behavior through that lens makes patterns emerge and decisions make sense.

Oil is flatlining in nominal terms but actually going down in real terms because inflation is still above the Fed's target; when priced in ounces of gold, the long-term real price of all commodities is lower, which is why one should avoid investing in commodities or their producers directly.

Janet Yellen deliberately issued short-duration rather than 30-year debt and emptied every short-term tool to prop up the economy, stocks, and Biden's reelection chances, leaving the resulting refinancing crisis for Scott Bessant — reflecting a bipartisan loss of 'country first' patriotism in DC.

Oil and gas companies are the real technology sector and deflationary machines; for modeling purposes there is an effectively infinite supply of hydrocarbons underground, and producers keep getting better at finding and extracting them, which structurally puts a lid on prices.

For the US to achieve a manufacturing renaissance, the dollar needs to be much weaker not just against other G7 currencies but against gold as well, and Bitcoin's strength is itself an inverse judgment on the dollar.

Molecular switching (replacing oil with natural gas, NGLs, and coal) and engine switching to run on whichever hydrocarbon is cheapest, combined with huge supply growth in Guyana, Argentina, potential Venezuela regime change, Mexico, and OPEC increases, all put a lid on oil; the equilibrium price of oil is around $55 and going lower.