Putin oscillates between periods where things go badly for Russia and then emerges stronger, demonstrating a tactical skill at playing a weakened hand into a strong one.

The relentless pace of AI technological development proceeds with inadequate safeguards and governance frameworks, creating systemic misuse risks that will be discovered through trial and error.

Risk #1: G-Zero Wins—a world characterized by new and expanding power vacuums, emboldened rogue actors and strongman leaders, and heightened risk for dangerous accidents, conflicts, or miscalculations, where geopolitical risks grow and guard rails are thinner.

The G-Zero World (the top risk of 2025) means an absence of global leadership and functioning international institutions, with power vacuums, emboldened rogue actors, weak guardrails, and high risk of dangerous accidents and miscalculations.