The American economy has collapsed because American consumers have maxed out their credit cards after being exploited for past decades and can no longer afford to spend, which is why America now demands Chinese consumers start maxing out their credit cards and China liberalize its financial markets

China is being bullied by America through tariffs, denial of technology access, denial of market access, and arrest of executives like Huawei's Meng Wanzhou, representing America's systematic campaign to constrain Chinese development

When selling wars to the public, they are always framed as benign and limited (women's rights in Iran, delivering freedom, preventing nuclear weapons), which allows elites to delude themselves about where escalation will actually spiral

You can discuss immigration, gender, and foreign policy in public, but you must be very careful what you say because of fear of social exclusion, professional consequences, and personal reputational damage

T.S. Eliot's 'The Hollow Men' prophecy is that the world ends not with a bang but a whimper, offering the slim hope that Western decline could be a slow sad collapse rather than a catastrophic war

In the 19th century, Britain fought Russia as a potential hegemon of Eurasia through wars like the Crimean War, but pushing Russia toward Asia in the 19th century was economically backwards for Russia, whereas today it pushes Russia into China's arms as the world's largest industrial and technological power

It remains unclear exactly what Hegseth meant when he said 'no NATO'—whether he meant no NATO in a peace deal or no NATO ever—and similarly unclear regarding territory: whether Russians get what they're holding now or must withdraw partially, or get parts of four oblasts they haven't conquered yet.

The deceit of claiming Ukraine could join NATO or that the West would intervene in the war was told to keep the war going, but this was never going to happen and has been a disaster for Ukrainians who suffered because of false hope.

America's problem is that if they don't make a deal, they're pushing Russia into the hands of China, and if they don't make a deal, it's going to be a much worse deal the longer they wait.

Even Obama back in his day recognized that it would be a very bad idea to start a war in Ukraine against the Russians, given Russian proximity logistics advantage and that Ukraine is much more important to Russia's existence than to the West.

The Ukraine war has broken the unipolar moment and finished it because it demonstrated limits on Western power and required listening to other powers.

Claims that the peace deal only takes into account Russian security while ignoring Ukraine's suffering are both true but miss the reality that there is no better alternative, and that continuing to fight leads to worse outcomes.

If the Minsk agreement had been implemented in 2015, Ukrainians could have reintegrated Donbas with only autonomy and minority rights like religious rights and language rights.

A broad European security agreement would take longer to negotiate but would actually be the best possible option because everyone could benefit from it rather than a series of conflicts.

If European security continues to dismiss Russian security concerns while pivoting to the Arctic and talking about seizing Russian ships in the Baltic, this would be beyond absurd and acts of war that Russia could not tolerate.

There was no acceptance of new status quo, just continuous pivot closer to Russia, and limits exist on how much territory you can take but not on moving military infrastructure closer, which is what made Russians draw red line.

The former head of the National Endowment for Democracy suggested that after Ukraine, Russia should be worried about similar treatment, and John McCain tweeted something about 'Moscow next' after Arab Spring.

Men will not look at things the way they really are, but as they wish them to be, and for this they are destroyed or ruined—a Machiavelli quote that summarizes how the West has been approaching Ukraine.

Before 2014, no one in Russia was laying any claims to Crimea, but after the coup and continued NATO expansion, Russia annexed Crimea, showing how Western actions created the situation.

Ukraine has lost the war and there's nothing that can be done anymore—so millions have left the country, so many young men have died, industries are destroyed, natural resources are under Russian control, electric grid is destroyed.