In the Cold War, a key question was how nuclear weapons could be used as tools of geopolitical coercion and aggression by the Soviet Union, or as means of stabilizing and sustaining a favorable global status quo by the United States.

There is a gap that opens up if the US withdraws from Europe that no other good actor can fill for the time being, creating a dangerous power vacuum.

Chinese microchips and machine tools have played a really important role in sustaining and rebuilding the Russian defense industrial base over the past three years despite heavy sanctions from the West.

The autocratic coalition relationships will not go into reverse after the Ukraine war ends because Russian, Iranian, North Korean, and Chinese officials have learned there are real strategic benefits from cooperation, and they will be reluctant to let it go once the war ends.

The US will need more effort and contribution from its European allies while also needing to put forward more effort to deal with challenges in three theaters simultaneously, but this should not take the form of saying to Europe 'over to you, we're out of here.'

Russian military trade, military co-production, and military technology development with China has already accelerated China's military buildup in important ways, and Russia is now becoming increasingly dependent on and willing to trade away technological crown jewels like marine quieting technology and space launch technology to China and North Korea.

If Russia is able to force an unfavorable peace deal on Ukraine, that will be a win not just for Russia but for the larger autocratic axis where all other countries have aided Russia partly because they know they stand to benefit if the American-led liberal order is weakened.

Most alliances in history were not permanent or ideological but temporary and tactical, driven by shared interests; NATO is exceptional, not the rule, and people mistake the NATO model for how all alliances work when in fact most alliances of convenience have had serious strategic effects without lasting forever.