Jet fuel cannot be easily replaced by renewable energy investments because mobility and refining require upstream hydrocarbon sources and refining capacity that take years to develop.

OPEC members, particularly the UAE, are aware of long-term demand shift driven by EV penetration and accelerating electrification, creating urgency to expand current production and monetize remaining reserves faster than historical timelines.

As an investor, Ian's focal point is geopolitics because geopolitics determines how energy disruptions actually manifest in physical flows, inventories, and prices over near to long-term horizons.

Inventories have been a critical lever for offsetting supply disruptions, but this lever is being depleted as Asian refined product inventories (particularly diesel and jet) deplete faster than crude inventories, creating medium-term vulnerability window.

Ian does not view electricity as a hard constraint on US AI growth but rather as creating economic and latency trade-offs that operators will make to ultimately serve the demand that exists.

Local political opposition to data centers will likely end up on ballots in the form of referenda during midterm elections as a visible political issue.

Behind-the-meter power solutions (fuel cells, small turbines from fracking equipment, batteries) are proving more expansive and cost-effective than anticipated, allowing data centers to reduce grid dependence and bridge capacity gaps.

Investment in capacity to control minerals and energy domestically in a mercantilist world generates good long-term ROI despite capital intensity, and eventually leads to longer-term price deflation as supply chains replicate globally.