Jeff Snider
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Host of Eurodollar University, monetary/eurodollar analyst
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Claims by Jeff Snider (20 of 633)
The low interest rates observed in the 15 years after 2008 were caused by deflationary pressure and high demand for safe liquid instruments, not by quantitative easing; interest rates fall when market participants flee toward safety, and central banks buy the same safe assets afterward, not before.
The eurodollar is not a currency but a ledger-based system of claims on US dollars, where participants transact in bank liabilities rather than physical currency, removing the need for physical hand-to-hand currency transfer and enabling massive expansion of credit beyond what physical currency constraints would allow.
Labor force participation in the United States has declined since 2008 not because workers lost skills or became lazy, but because lack of money and credit creation has constrained the real economy's ability to employ available workers; this is evidence of deflationary constraints, similar to Japan in the 1990s and the Great Depression.
The term 'eurodollar' predates the European currency by many decades and originated from US dollars circulating in post-war Europe, becoming formalized into a marketplace centered in London and Switzerland around the mid-1950s, with participants transacting in dollar denominations but outside direct US regulatory authority.
The eurodollar system emerged partly as a practical workaround to solve Triffin's Paradox—the structural tension in Bretton Woods where the US could not simultaneously maintain gold convertibility, provide sufficient international liquidity, and maintain domestic price stability—allowing elastic credit creation beyond what the gold standard permitted.
Term premium is an incomplete economic concept used to explain yield curve slope; it assumes long bonds require higher yields simply for holding longer, but this does not explain inverted yield curves or why long-term rates move independently; market participants have heterogeneous expectations about growth and inflation at different curve maturities.
The eurodollar system involves banks creating money through lending that funds both short-term commercial needs and longer-term investments; when a European company needs dollars to do business in Malaysia, the bank borrows dollars short-term in wholesale markets and lends them longer-term to the company, creating maturity mismatch.
On-the-run treasury securities (recently issued, actively traded) are liquid and acceptable as collateral in repo markets, while off-the-run treasuries (older issues) become illiquid during stress and are rejected as repo collateral, forcing dealers to sell them at reduced prices when they cannot fund purchases in repo.
The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing purchases in March 2020 did not solve the underlying dollar shortage or collateral crisis; what actually stabilized the system was the US Treasury issuing massive amounts of treasury bills (on-the-run collateral) starting in late March after the CARES Act, restoring the collateral base.
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