Trump inherited a pretty good economic outlook when taking office: growth has been solid, job gains have been substantial, and inflation seems mostly under control.

Deregulation will be felt most strongly in financial services and oil and gas sectors, where regulatory constraints have been binding.

A shift from the rule of law to rule of a man has consequential implications for U.S. governance, with concentrated power in one person (Trump) who calls the shots over the Republican Party in Congress.

Trump is very transactional and interpersonal in his approach, believing in making connections with people (foreign leaders, business leaders), and this means companies must consider whether they have a personal relationship with Trump or his inner circle to navigate policy.

Norm erosion has been happening in the U.S. for a while, with recent examples including Biden pardoning his son and Biden using CPP authority to block the U.S. Steel acquisition by Nippon Steel for political reasons.

Trump fails to execute his agenda is a red herring—the Trump administration is set up to succeed, at least for the first 12 months, with unified government control and clear policy plans.

Trump's policy mix includes deregulation, anti-immigration policy, higher tariffs, and potentially loose fiscal policy—a combination that cuts in multiple different directions with different distributional effects.

Trump's transactional, personal approach to governance means business leaders and foreign leaders must now cultivate personal relationships with Trump, his family, and inner circle to influence policy, making business navigation highly dependent on personal access rather than institutional processes.

The Rule of Man risk reflects a shift in US governance where power is highly concentrated in Trump personally, he has consolidated control over the Republican party and Congress, and the normal checks and balances that constrained him in his first term (Republican resistance, career officials) are now weakened.

Biden's pardon of his son and use of the CFIUS process to block Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel for political reasons are examples of norm erosion that will be supercharged under Trump.

Trump avoids consequences for impeachments and legal indictments due to Republican loyalty and legal strategies, giving him latitude to act without congressional pushback.

Trump's willingness to use the Washington Post's reporting against its own reporting (contradicting a transition team leak about scaling back tariffs with a Truth Social post) shows his unpredictability and control over the narrative.

Loose fiscal policy means consumers get more money in their pockets and taxes remain low, but there is a lot of treasury debt issuance which is a concern for markets over the long term.

Tariffs and anti-immigration policy should be inflationary on balance, but the deregulatory agenda could unleash productivity growth in the United States, creating an uncertain net effect that markets are currently pricing as primarily positive.

In industries extremely exposed to trade or to foreign workers, Trump's policies could mean a slowdown and make it harder to hire people in construction and agriculture, and domestic production could suffer under new trade barriers.

Trump comes in with much more acceptance of who he is and what his administration means, and with a unified government he will have a lot of latitude to get things done, making 'Trump fails' an unlikely red herring because conditions are more favorable for Trump success than in his first term.