Sanctions against Iran are not working as effectively as they once did and have weakened, which further strengthens Iran's position.

Israel's real goal in Gaza is ethnic cleansing, not just defeating Hamas or retrieving hostages, because ethnic cleansing solves two critical problems: it eliminates the apartheid dilemma by removing the Palestinian population, and it solves the Hamas problem by expelling Hamas along with all Palestinians. Israel is making Gaza unlivable and starving the population to drive Palestinians out.

Before October 7th, Gaza was a giant open-air prison created when Israel withdrew settlers in 2005 under Ariel Sharon because Gaza was a 'hornet's nest' and Israel wanted to focus on the West Bank. Netanyahu was satisfied managing this situation and actually funded and supported Hamas because Netanyahu opposed a two-state solution while Mahmoud Abbas (Palestinian Authority) favored it, so Netanyahu played Hamas against Abbas.

To prove genocide, one must provide evidence of intent and evidence that actions are consistent with that intent. Israeli leaders have made public statements demonstrating genocidal intent, which was documented in the South African case at the International Court of Justice, and Haaretz published an article titled 'The Road to the Hague is Paved with Public Comments by Israeli Leaders.'

Replacing Netanyahu will not change Israeli policy toward Gaza or Palestine because Netanyahu and his war cabinet, along with most of the Israeli national security elite, agree with the current policies. Liberal American Jews who believe Netanyahu is an anomaly and that replacing him would allow Israel to make peace are mistaken.

Joe Biden withheld 3,500 bombs from Israel and faced immediate backlash from Israel Lobby supporters like Brett Stevens at the New York Times. Biden is afraid to put pressure on Israel because he is running for re-election and the Israel Lobby will punish Democratic politicians who are too critical of Israel.

Iran is enriching uranium up to 60% purity. To have weapons-grade uranium requires 90% enrichment, which is easy to achieve from 60%. Mearsheimer estimates Iran could have enough fissile material for three bombs in about six weeks, and it would take about six months to build three bombs, after which Iran would need to develop delivery capability.

Israel today controls everything between the river and the sea—what is called Greater Israel—which comprises Greenline Israel (pre-1967 borders), Gaza, and the West Bank, with approximately 7.3 million Palestinian and 7.3 million Israeli Jewish inhabitants creating rough demographic equality between the two populations.

Israel is defined as an apartheid state because: Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank have no voting rights and no self-determination; Palestinians in pre-1967 Israel have voting rights but lack equal civil rights; Israel has no constitution partly because enshrining equal rights would require treating Palestinians and Jews equally.

Hezbollah in the North is shelling Northern Israel in support of Hamas, forcing 60,000 to 100,000 Israelis from northern Israel to relocate to the center of the country, and Hezbollah has committed to continuing this campaign until the Gaza war ends. Additionally, the Houthis have now begun launching missiles at Israel.

Israel's strategic doctrine depends on escalation dominance—the ability to retaliate against any attack with greater force than the initial attack, punishing aggressors so severely that they regret attacking. The 2006 example is that when Hezbollah killed a few Israelis and kidnapped one, Nasrallah said two months later he would never have allowed the attack if he had known the scale of Israeli retaliation.

Israel no longer has escalation dominance with respect to Iran or Hezbollah. Israel cannot shut down the Hezbollah conflict on its northern border despite hitting Hezbollah very hard, while Hezbollah has 150,000 rockets and missiles that will only grow in number, limiting Israel's options. With Iran, the April 1st-April 19th exchange (embassy bombing, Iranian retaliation, Israeli counter-retaliation) demonstrates lack of escalation dominance.

The United States and Iran secretly coordinated through intermediaries (Oman) before Iran's April 14th attack to ensure the Iranian response was limited, avoided populated areas, targeted only one or two military sites, and was predictable so neither side would escalate beyond control. Both the U.S. and Iran actively sought to prevent escalation.

The Republican party is clearly more pro-Israel than the Democratic party. However, because the Israel Lobby influences both parties' elites, there are no significant differences between Republicans and Democrats on Israel policy—it is 'Tweedledee and Tweedledum.'

Social media and the internet have been catastrophic for Israel's ability to control narratives. While Israel still has significant influence over mainstream media (Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post), TikTok is described as 'an utter nightmare' for Israel because videos of Israelis committing atrocities against Palestinians reach a massive audience, and Israelis themselves film these actions and post them online.

Mearsheimer cites Jonathan Greenblat (head of the Anti-Defamation League) discussing TikTok as 'a disaster' for Israel in a phone call that was recorded and made public on the internet.

The United States is also a loser in these Middle Eastern conflicts because the U.S. interest is in having peace in the Middle East so it can pivot to East Asia. The most serious threat on the planet is China, and the U.S. must contain China, but cannot pivot to Asia because it is pinned down in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The U.S. wanted peace in the Middle East before October 7th (as evidenced by Jake Sullivan saying a few weeks before October 7th that 'we haven't seen the Middle East this peaceful for a long time'), and this situation was beneficial to the U.S. because it meant the U.S. was not pinned down in the Middle East.

The Abraham Accords (a quasi-alliance between the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia) have collapsed because of what is happening in Gaza. This is not in the U.S., Israel's, or Saudi Arabia's interest.

The U.S. and Israel (with pressure from Israel) withdrew from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the nuclear agreement the Obama Administration negotiated with Iran. As a consequence, Iran resumed enriching uranium, and this withdrawal from the agreement has incentivized Iran to pursue nuclear weapons.