Lobo Tigre
About
Independent commodity and mining analyst; newsletter writer and contrarian investor
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Claims by Lobo Tigre (20 of 23)
Lobo Tigre would welcome buying oil stocks opportunistically if a presidential tweet or other shock knocked oil prices down 30%, or if peace declarations caused oil to correct 40-60%, because the underlying structural constraints (underinvestment, infrastructure damage) would remain, setting up subsequent rallies.
If investors receive criticism (rotten tomatoes) from viewers for not cheerleading a particular commodity, they should be skeptical of their own emotional response and consider that analysts willing to be contrarian and honest about risks are more reliable than permabulls who only tell you what you want to hear.
Current geopolitical events in the Middle East are a wake-up call (escalating beyond 2022 Ukraine invasion) that energy independence is an urgent, pressing necessity for all countries, making nuclear/uranium the only viable solution for energy-independent nations without significant hydro or fossil fuel resources.
The ultimate goal of investment is to make money through selling high, not through being religiously committed to a particular commodity or macro scenario—regardless of whether a particular asset class corrects, volatility will create opportunities somewhere, so tactical allocation is superior to dogmatic sector positioning.
Gold's real role and utility is the maintenance of purchasing power over time, not as a short-term speculation or savings vehicle—this function explains why sovereigns like Hungary and other governments have been selling gold to fund immediate obligations without compromising gold's long-term value.
Lobo Tigre recently sold nearly all of his mining and precious metals stocks (including Wheaton Precious Metals and Agnico Eagle—the 'cream of the absolute cream') at cyclical highs, not to exit the sector permanently, but to raise cash for deploying in subsequent opportunities, giving him 10x the cash to invest compared to his inception 8 years ago.
The underlying case for oil stocks (years of underinvestment in production capacity creating supply constraints) remains stronger than ever despite the war, because conflict is actually exacerbating the underinvestment problem by destroying infrastructure—but this is now obvious to everyone, so prices don't reflect bargains.
In 2008, many investors who understood the crisis unfolding still could not capitalize because they lacked dry powder (cash reserves), resulting in the anguished complaint 'I get it. I want to buy, but I'm all in. I have no cash.' This is a repeated mistake investors make by over-allocating to positions.
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