I like some Chinese tech stocks like Tencent, acknowledging China is a black box with reported data uncertainty, but selective exposure at current valuations makes sense because China has corporate debt in real estate sector not visible in companies like Tencent.

My highest conviction trade for the next year or so is Bitcoin, because it's clearly operating on its own cycle separate from other asset classes based on its halving points and uncorrelated nature.

There's not a ton of new copper supply at current prices; more supply could be brought online at higher prices, but at current prices it's not incentivized, and there's been pretty significant exploration costs without finding much copper.

My background blends engineering and finance, with my career path starting in engineering and gradually shifting toward engineering management and applying quantitative analysis to finance and investing.

Central banks around the world have been shifting more of their assets into gold over time to take away counterparty risk, sanction risk, and de-dollarize, seen especially from Russia, Kazakhstan, and China.

It's almost an inevitable situation that copper will rise, but the timing has multiple years of variance for how long that trade takes to play out, so I like having some copper exposure but with patience.

I favor India among emerging markets, historically one of the most expensive, but it's not in bubble territory now compared to 2007, with great demographics, low debt levels, and low dollar-denominated debt, though economic data has been weaker than expected during COVID.

My base case is that because it's an election year, they're likely to pass something and kick the can down the road for another few months, with markets really hard to look more than a few months ahead because it all comes down to the next round of fiscal.

The Fed is managing credit risk in risky markets through de facto yield curve control, as shown by the New York Metro bond example where the Fed rejected market pricing and bought bonds at lower yields, indicating most markets aren't correctly pricing risk because the Fed is handicapping it.

I combine India and Russia trades together in a portfolio because India prefers lower commodity prices while Russia prefers high commodity prices, so together they hedge out some of the commodity question and whose performance is determined by commodity prices.

Gold tends to do better in disinflationary environments while silver tends to do better in reflationary environments, as shown by gold outperforming until the March crash and silver coming up strong since then as inflation expectations shifted.

I wouldn't expect to see a big multi-year bear market for gold in most scenarios, but more just a year or two-year slump period where there's nothing driving it, particularly if we get into a Goldilocks scenario of 1.5-2% GDP growth and 1.5% inflation.

The critical distinction in electoral outcomes is not whether you win, but how decisively you win—a gridlock scenario with split government looks like the Obama presidency's last six years, while a sweep enables more aggressive spending on either side, with different spending priorities between Republicans and Democrats.

For Bitcoin, daily/weekly/monthly action can be affected by liquidity and reflation on/off, but the price difference between now and end of 2021 won't be strongly influenced by other factors—it's mostly influenced by how much Bitcoin demand there is compared to reduced supply from the halving.

Previous money printing had the consequence of increasing wealth inequality over time rather than solving root issues, because it was central bank recapitalization of banks propping up the wealth effect, whereas this fiscal stimulus is more directed to economy stimulus that gets mostly monetized and feels good immediately.

India could be a pretty big source of copper demand in the 2020s because it has a much smaller copper installed base per capita than China, and China itself has less copper per capita than Western countries.

Whatever position you have in China should be smaller due to the question about how real the reported fundamentals are; if the numbers look good, discount them by the uncertainty and reduce position size accordingly.

I have a physical metals layer I'd be very slow to sell, the only time ever sold physical was 2011 and partly luck, a liquid miners/ETF layer I'd be quicker to sell, and applying the same approach to Bitcoin with cold storage I'd be slow to sell and liquid layers I'd trim if we see significant price action.

A lot of my macro framework comes from control engineering, which involves managing systems with hundreds of inputs and outputs and figuring out relationships where for every action there's an opposite reaction, similar to how a thermostat works but with hundreds of variables instead of one or two.

I've been in a weird phase for the past couple of years being bearish from a business cycle perspective, thinking we're late in a business cycle and things are expensive, but also being somewhat more bullish than I would otherwise be on equity and risk assets, which has played out well because I expected such a large fiscal response.