In a scenario where Russia weakens and the EU becomes military-focused, the EU will be incentivized to expand eastward and absorb border territories (not just Ukraine) to prevent them from becoming destabilizing no-man's lands that tempt a weakened but desperate Russia to aggressive action

China has been methodically absorbing buffer states: Tibet (2008), Xinjiang (2011), Hong Kong (2019); this represents a methodical recreation of the Chinese empire with Taiwan as the final missing piece, but unlike other scenarios, when China takes Taiwan, Japan and South Korea will panic and go nuclear themselves

The 2028 US election will mark a generational shift when both candidates are younger than the baby boom generation (under ~80 years old), ending the dominance of octogenarian leaders; this generational transition creates possibility for new consensus formation and depolarization in the 2030s

Younger generations (Gen X, millennials) are not inherently smarter or better than baby boomers, but they may have longer time horizons and be better at problem-solving and compromise, enabling them to navigate the 2030s crises better than current leadership

The US political system has been reshuffled six times historically; usually a new force (old force changing or third force emerging) takes over for a decade creating political stability; the one exception was civil war; current polarization suggests we may be at a 'Roman interval' where the system could fail