The key question is whether US copper tariffs are a pressing policy need given that US already produces 60% of its copper domestically, or whether this is misguided policy targeting a non-problem.

Matt's Elemental/Tether investor letter generated 'pretty overwhelming' feedback from both mining specialists (60% of list) and generalist investors (40%), indicating the deal resonates with broader audience.

The Hayden smelter (also known as the Asarco smelter), owned by Grupo Mexico and mothballed for decades, is likely to be fast-tracked back into production due to tariff incentives.

Freeport and Rio Tinto operate the only two active copper smelters in the US; Freeport's Miami smelter in Arizona is small, Rio Tinto's Kennecott smelter in Utah is larger; Grupo Mexico's Hayden smelter has been mothballed for decades.

The recent wave of M&A and consolidation activity in the junior royalty space—including Sandstorm/Horizon Copper, Origin/Triple Flag deal for $420 million, and Tether's investment in Elemental Altus—represents a long-awaited shift after 2-3 years of a sleepy sector.

Investment success requires taking 2-3 year views focused on fundamentals: high-quality management with skin in the game, asset quality that works at normalized prices (not policy premiums), company structure, upcoming catalysts, and price-to-value delta.

Tether now owns 52% of Elemental Altus after taking an initial stake, signing an option agreement to purchase the Alpha Stream stake in October-November 2025, and acquiring blocks from smaller institutional shareholders.

Based on conversations with shareholders and CEO Fred Bell, Tether's most likely intention is to be supportive long-term shareholders helping Elemental grow on a deal-by-deal basis, though option five is not mutually exclusive with opportunistic M&A and one-off co-investments.

Trump stated he is considering a 50% tariff on copper, causing the copper price to spike 17% and creating the largest single-day move in the copper price since at least 1968 when records began.

Late-stage U.S.-based copper development projects that produce copper cathode (rather than concentrate) are clear beneficiaries of the 50% copper tariff proposal, as tariffs apply to imports of concentrate but not domestic cathode.

The U.S. currently produces domestically 60% of its refined copper demand, meaning 40% must be imported; if Hayden is turned back online, this could rise to 70% domestic production, leaving a 30% gap for full self-reliance.

American citizens living on the margins are the actual losers from copper tariffs, as these tariffs will be inflationary and don't address a pressing self-sufficiency problem (unlike rare earths where China controls 90% of processing).

For copper tariff beneficiaries to remain good investments, their business cases must work at $425-450 copper (near current prices) rather than being dependent on the tariff premium that would bring prices to $550+.

The MJG portfolio is 35% weighted toward copper (the highest single metal weighting), but Guyger is not chasing the recent movers like Arizona Sonoran or Ivanho Electric; instead he is holding earlier-stage heavy Swiss copper exposure.

The market has been skeptical of the 50% copper tariff threat, as evidenced by the spread between COMEX and LME copper prices remaining at only 23-24%, suggesting traders do not believe the tariff will be implemented.

The royalty and streaming business model is a relatively new innovation in the long history of the mining industry and is becoming more mainstream, as evidenced by Tether's choice to deploy mining capital through royalties rather than other mining business models.

Elemental Altus stock is up 75% year-to-date and up 35% from the Tether investment announcement, placing it in the top 3-4 performing royalty names.

Guyger has been a long-term shareholder of Elemental (originally through its predecessor Altus Strategies since 2018) and has written about it in every MJG investor letter since 2021, indicating deep conviction in the holding.

Tether is generating $3-4 billion per quarter in excess cash from its stablecoin products and is deploying this excess capital through an investment vehicle (Tether Investments) to acquire hard assets; this is not money being used to back the stablecoin but rather an independent investment fund.

MJG (Matt Guyger's fund) has six of its holdings represented at the Boca Raton Rural Investment Symposium, representing roughly one-third of the portfolio.