Harris's housing solution of giving more people housing subsidies would push housing prices up more, worsening the affordability crisis rather than solving it; this is trying to fix inflation with more inflation.

Cembalest predicted Argentine dollarization would fail if implemented; this is 'a mixed bag' because Argentina backed off from dollarization and moved toward a 'buy monetary economy,' but their stabilization progress has been better than expected.

In the 10 states with the highest share of imports to state GDP, 8 are GOP states; voters would reasonably be expected to be more wary about tariffs in those states, but they were not.

The highest year-to-date equity gains in an election year since 1936 occurred in 2024 at 10%, yet this was not communicated by the Harris campaign.

The root cause of the housing problem is a massive increase in zoning regulations and land-use reform lawsuits; reversing this would require an administration that is willing to deregulate rather than increase regulations.

The Biden administration passed an Inflation Reduction Act that increased inflationary pressures; it is the most Orwellian named bill in Congressional history. Producer price reports show Transformers and Power Regulators for transmission systems and power prices rising not just in California but in Texas, Pennsylvania, and New York—very inflationary.

The hyperscalers' argument that 'the biggest risk is underinvestment' is not credible; even Google, which pioneered search and has 95%+ browser market share, cannot afford to say investment is insufficiently risky because it's a defensive strategy against AI search threats.

Self-driving vehicles must work reliably in multiple conditions beyond just Phoenix and San Francisco, which have sunny weather; the evidence is not yet in on true all-weather autonomous capability.

Cembalest predicted broadly syndicated loan losses would rise above private credit losses for the first time; this did not happen.

Cembalest's 2025 outlook will be published on January 1, following the tradition of his annual outlooks.

Javier Milei is Argentina's stabilization star, but there is risk: he is alone without institutional support, and Peronists are waiting for him to fail; Peronism is ideologically flexible and will adopt whatever political form (populism, fascism) is currently viable.