Treasury TIPS at over 2% real return are a fantastic opportunity because it's very difficult to earn more than 2% real return in investment markets, and they provide inflation protection

Liquidity is the most important factor driving markets, more important than interest rates, as demonstrated by the last 5 years including COVID and the 2008 financial crisis where 'it's all about money flow'

Gold became a major component of invested portfolios during the 1970s high inflation era, with Swiss banks holding 15-20% of client portfolios in gold, which came down to nearly nothing but is on the way up again

The era of monetary dominance brought in by Paul Volcker in 1978 was characterized by fiscal discipline, non-accommodative central banks, and low contained inflation, and this environment was fantastic for a 60% equity, 40% bonds portfolio with nothing in gold or crypto

China will want to avoid US financial assets and won't put their dollar surplus directly into treasuries, but they have to because there's nowhere else to put it; they can try to channel money into gold but the gold market simply isn't big enough

China will continue and extend Belt and Road initiatives not just in Africa but in Latin America, Central Asia and elsewhere as countries seek to deploy their trade surplus and avoid holding US financial assets

China is sitting on a vast economy with lots of wealth but has capital controls; if they removed capital controls, capital would flow out in huge size, and there is probably already a leaking capital account, which is one reason the Chinese yuan is depreciating

Cash is currently giving 5% nominal return which is pretty good in real terms, so investors should have 10-15% in cash for liquidity and optionality

The Breton Woods financial system is still in place with the dollar at the center, the IMF and World Bank policing it, and floating rates have actually increased the dominance of the dollar rather than decreased it

It's not in the interest of the Chinese Communist Party to enfranchise the consumer because there's a risk the consumer would become too powerful and kick the party out, so they maintain control over the system by controlling a large share of resources