Semolist's outlook for 2025 expects markets may end higher but anticipates a 12-15% correction along the way when 'potential chaos' becomes apparent and the administration moves to 'break something' as promised, reflecting their rhetoric of disruption and change.

The Biden Administration commissioned a study from the Huet Foundation in 2020 where they embraced MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), which concluded there is greater headroom for government spending without causing undue inflation—a document that would have terrified any prior administration.

Steve Mnuchin had far greater visibility and recognizability than Janet Yellen according to Google Trends search comparing his name during Trump's term versus Yellen during Biden administration, yet most clients and listeners couldn't identify Mnuchin in a police lineup.

A steeper yield curve and less regulation is good for banks, and this is now in place; Trump administration's approach to energy will be different than Biden's despite the massive clean energy bill spending ($1-2 trillion over 10 years not captured in original CBO scoring).

For the first time in 100 years, incumbents lost voter share in every election, yet in five of the swing states contested, Democrats won four Senate seats, indicating there was a messaging issue at the national level and within the Harris campaign that needs to be examined.

Brad Lander, NYC Comptroller, published a report showing the city is underestimating asylum costs by 10-15 billion dollars annually, whereas the mayor's Office of Management and Budget underestimated the problem.

Over time, the blue line (entitlements) kept going up as a multiple of the gold line (non-defense discretionary spending) and is out of control because the United States lacks guardrails that other countries have on this ratio.

Legal immigration structured around merit-based and needs-based criteria (following Canada, Australia, UK model) would allow the US to select for labor market requirements like truck drivers, which is more rational than the progressive wing's resistance to this approach

The Fed was able to raise policy rates without triggering a recession for the first time in 60 years.

Non-defense discretionary spending is already cut to the bone at its lowest level since the early 1960s, so 'the real money' that Elon Musk and DOGE would need to find savings is in entitlements, but tackling Medicaid would cause a crisis within the Trump administration because it is politically vulnerable.

Close to an all-time high in labor force participation rate exists, which is a proxy for job availability; manufacturing jobs have reshored after decline under Trump; industrial policy overwhelmingly benefited GOP districts, with 75% of energy bill spending going to GOP districts in swing states; largest surge in manufacturing-related construction on record; highest year-to-date equity gains in an election year since 1936; eight of ten states with highest import share to GDP are GOP states; wages are now rising faster than rents.

Voters are smart enough to understand that housing affordability and cost of living have become worse over time, and one Wharton analysis shows a perfect correlation between housing affordability in 25 different metropolitan areas and their level of zoning regulations.

To avoid tenure Treasury problems, the Trump administration needs a productivity shock from massive deregulation, and the Eisenhower Administration provides a historical precedent showing deregulation pays enormous benefits for small business.

Semolist's daughter had a deadly peanut allergy and there have been changes in the food supply related to things RFK Jr. has raised; there are legitimate FDA failures like the recalled Vioxx drug that caused heart attacks, suggesting fair questions can be asked about drug development establishment without embracing RFK Jr. theories.

AI adoption rates are going up but this could be as simple as companies checking boxes ('we have employees use GPT') without real integration or hard dollar investment; there are no answers yet on how much companies will pay for AI services when actual accounting costs apply.

Voters care way more about economic issues than they do about just about anything else, which has been crystal clear since Reagan's 'Morning in America' commercials.

Military spending is notoriously difficult to cut and has enormous potential for cutting; there are tremendous cost overruns in military contracting, but improving requisitioning processes would take years to see benefits by the end of Trump's term.

Trump spoke with NYC Mayor Eric Adams after the election and they appear to want to use New York as a test case for how fast they can reverse asylum flows; cutting inflow rates in half or to a third is more feasible than removing people already here.

Janet Yellen appeared to be someone who had just retired from a full career at the Fed, her accent is distinctly Brooklyn (giving Woody Allen vibes), and this persona wasn't resonating in the states that the campaign needed to win.

During the 1990s, Bob Rubin and his associates knew how to sell the Clinton economy—they were constantly appearing on TV and radio—and Rubin was effective as Treasury secretary because he was a former academic and Fed chair who also understood markets and how to sell that story.