Silver (SLV) experienced a large triangle breakout followed by a breakdown through the bottom of the triangle toward $70 (roughly 12-15% decline from triangle apex), tested the lower support of the triangle, and is now recovering back toward $80, which would confirm the entire decline was a 'fake out' if it breaks back above.

Oil (as tracked by USO ETF) spiked dramatically when the Iran war broke out and 'never looked back,' but everything else (stocks, gold, silver, bonds) sold off simultaneously, so investors who tried to buy 'safe haven' assets like gold and silver when the war started were whipsawed as those assets declined significantly.

On a monthly basis, gold has only had one down month (recently ended), which is 'not really a big deal in the grand scheme of things'; gold bull markets are typically 8-10 year affairs, and one monthly decline does not invalidate the multi-year bull thesis.

John and Mike added oil service stocks (ticker EXES) to their model portfolios in October-November 2024, months before the Iran war broke out, based on charts and technical breakouts indicating the sector was the strongest; the decision was driven by technical signals, not energy crisis narrative.

Preston exited positions in Brazil and Mexico after technical breakdowns (Mexico down 11% in one day after presidential election, Brazil breaking technical support) and traded calls against those positions to break even overall, following rules-based stop loss discipline rather than emotional decision-making.

According to Mike Preston (New Harbor Financial), the US dollar will probably strengthen in the near term or medium term but enter a long-term downtrend, contrasting with Johnson's framework which focuses more on relative dollar strength rather than absolute long-term direction.

Preston increased the firm's position in long-term bonds (TLT) from 7.5% to 10% after the 10-year yield broke through a key technical trend line and started moving lower, expecting yields could fall to 3% or below when the economic crisis hits, providing significant appreciation opportunity from current levels around 93.

Gold and silver are currently consolidating and have experienced recent pullbacks; Preston expects silver to pull back further to possibly 2850-2950 before resuming uptrend to 3450-3500, and gold to consolidate around 2350 before breaking above recent highs toward 2500+.

New Harbor Financial maintained its India position despite a 6-7% market decline the day after the Indian election because India's technical chart levels were not breached and their hedges (in-the-money call options) protected the position

Preston's study of the S&P 500 since the tech bubble shows 64% declines in the 2000-2003 period and housing bubble period, and he expects the market could eventually decline 60-66% back to equilibrium yields around 8-10%, suggesting current valuations are extremely stretched historically.

People who understand fiat devaluation should dollar-cost-average into selling their equity positions (sell gradually on the way up, not all at once) rather than trying to time the market, while simultaneously accumulating hard assets like gold and silver mining shares.

The market has not experienced a significant correction in a long time, with the last major drops being COVID (fast recovery) and October 2023, and markets have been in 'simulation mode' since 2009 with central bank rescue of every dip, creating psychological conditioning where almost no investors have the emotional fortitude to sell on the way down during a real crash

At New Harbor, they maintain a 45% equity allocation versus industry norms, hedge that allocation, and expect to underperform if there's a huge meltup while benefiting from their gold/silver positions during correction scenarios

T-bills currently pay 4% guaranteed with no downside risk, representing an alternative to stock market participation for risk-averse investors

Don't make investment decisions based on fear of missing out (FOMO); instead talk to a financial professional, accept that emotions drive markets against you, and use discipline and hedges rather than market-timing

The central bank has been forced into a structural bind where they must either allow markets to correct (which would cause political/economic chaos given debt levels) or continue intervening with increasing amounts just to hold the system together, creating an escalating dynamic that eventually becomes unsustainable.

Younger generations should theoretically prefer a market crash because they need valuations to be reasonable to have a chance at building wealth, but this is prevented by perpetual intervention that protects existing asset holders.

The market will eventually correct sharply in a manner that won't be a quick V-shaped recovery, meaning investors need to be emotionally even-keeled and patient, which is difficult without professional guidance.

For the first time since 2011, the Sahm Rule triggered over a year ago, but has not preceded a recession, breaking the historical pattern, creating uncertainty about whether traditional recession signals still work

New Harbor Financial uses a 45% equity allocation significantly below industry norms, maintains hedges, holds gold/silver positions, and suggests rebalancing gains and using dollar-cost averaging with hedging for new investors rather than deploying full capital at peak valuations