Crude oil advanced 1300 basis points (13 percentage points) week-over-week and was trading near $88.43 per barrel at the time of recording (approximately July 23, 2026).

The US dollar is forming a flag formation above the 50-day moving average and has broken out of a 15-month trade range, with the 10150 level as the key breakout target, while the euro is weak below 114 suggesting potential moves to 112-111.

The US dollar yen is shockingly strong, having broken out of a 2-3 week trade range and hit 163 handle, suggesting possible US dollar funding stresses.

Brent oil has recovered almost back to the 100 level, and crude oil volatility remains at only 65% despite all the geopolitical action, far below the 120% levels seen in March, indicating room still exists for option strategies around crude oil.

Gasoline and diesel have ripped to fresh highs and crack spreads remain very high, indicating strong refining economics and continued upside pressure on refined product prices despite the oil price recovery.

Patrick Szna recommends buying GLD at $376 per share with a hedge through September 18th expiration: put protection at $370-350 and short call at $415, for a total cost of $1.75 per share or $175 per 100 shares, limiting downside while capping upside at 10%.

Market breadth is currently poor (under 50%), meaning the majority of stocks are downtrending while only the mega-cap stocks like Nvidia and other Mag 7 stocks are rising, creating risk that the S&P 500 rally is not sustainable if mega-cap earnings disappoint.

The US dollar index has consolidated above its 50-day moving average and is edging toward the top of its trading range, suggesting potential for a breakout, though this has not yet occurred and remains uncertain.

Physical uranium held through ETFs like SRUUF (SPY Physical Uranium Trust) is interesting because uranium futures themselves are just getting underway while uranium mining stocks have already had a strong impulse, suggesting potential for the physical commodity to catch up.

The S&P 500 index is up 285 basis points as of October 29, 2025, trading to 6890, having surged higher with the key question being whether momentum will continue in the post-MAG 7 earnings window.

Gold has fallen from its recent highs and is correcting, with prior correction patterns showing 50-day moving average serving as support and prior corrections lasting 2-4 months; the current correction should be expected after a $1,000 rally and is not a sign the gold bull market is ending.

The Fed must start easing more than previously expected because the negative jobs number is baking into market pricing the realization that the Fed will have to ease its stance; dollar weakness in response confirms this and indicates the structural downtrend in the dollar will likely continue.

Oil is currently testing the bottom of its June-July trading range at the 64-65 level, and if recession odds continue rising with deteriorating economic data, the question becomes whether oil demand destruction will break support at these lows with a measured move to retest the 2024 double-bottom lows in the 55-56 area.

Uranium spot prices (SRUUF) are in early stages of a bullish trend following a 15-month bear market that wiped out 50% of value; the dip has been well-defended in retracement zones and represents a classic buy zone for upside breakout in physical uranium, with dips likely to be bought if uranium spot prices turn higher.

There is asymmetric opportunity in copper at support levels because downside is protected by the major $4 support line (established in late July and November-December 2024), while upside has potential to bounce back toward $5, making copper an attractive asymmetric bet despite the terrible-looking chart.

Systematic volatility-targeting funds (vault targeting funds) have largely completed their buying, reducing a key near-term source of equity demand, making future gains dependent on new catalysts such as recession probability shifts and Fed policy changes

A 5% equity market correction is common and healthy within bull market trends, and the current 3.5% pullback in the S&P 500 is within normal parameters rather than a sign of trend reversal

Markets are now approaching a distribution phase and potential topping formation as vault-targeting funds complete their buying and the initial correction from overbought conditions (300 S&P points above the 50-day moving average) has occurred; if resistance at 6450-6500 holds and prevents further upside in August, September-October seasonality could produce deeper market correction.

The Federal Reserve has a historical pattern of keeping monetary conditions too tight for too long, which inevitably spurring economic weakness and requiring later emergency easing—this cycle pattern may be repeating as 2025 progresses

WTI crude oil has been left for dead by market attention (overshadowed by gold, uranium, AI stocks) but is showing bullish behavioral patterns (establishing support, moving above 50-day MA) with the November-December spread recovering from backwardation, suggesting asymmetric upside risk if broader energy demand accelerates or supply disruptions occur.