Professor John Rockström
About
Director of the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research; represents Future Earth and Earth League
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Claims by Professor John Rockström (14)
From an earth system science perspective, 1.5 degrees Celsius is still a possible landing zone that can still be achieved, but requires a doubling of carbon dioxide reduction pace from 2 gigatons per year (linear, 5% annually) to 4 gigatons per year to achieve a two-thirds chance of success, against current global emissions of 42 gigatons per year.
We need a transition not only into decarbonization of energy systems through technologies but also need 1.5 degrees Celsius lifestyles; status quo consumption patterns and growth will not take us to the Paris range—this requires both equity and behavioral and lifestyle change.
Tipping elements are a real risk that cannot be ruled out; the IPCC scientific assessment shows that as scientific advances have progressed, the estimated global mean temperature at which tipping point risk occurs has dropped, with tipping point risk now assessed to lie between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius with low probability but high impact events.
Beyond individual tipping points, the scientific frontier shows risk of cascading interactions between tipping element systems where melting of the Greenland ice sheet releases cold fresh water slowing North Atlantic heat circulation, impacting monsoon patterns over the Amazon causing increased droughts and forest fires, which locks warm water in the southern ocean accelerating West Antarctic ice shelf melting.
Carbon pricing is scientifically shown to accelerate the scale of transition; 61 countries have adopted a price on carbon, but it currently covers only 22 percent of global emissions and is inefficiently set at too low a level, with the European Union as the first successful regional example where carbon pricing is starting to work at over 60 euros per ton.
Nature-based solutions are absolutely fundamental to have a chance of delivering the Paris Agreement; however, the challenge is to ensure robust and resilient solutions rather than fool ourselves with offsetting mechanisms that have already been factored into the climate models that give us the remaining carbon budget.
We need to correct the market economic failure in factoring in the true cost of climate damage into economic models, with the primary entry point being health: over 7 million people per year are prematurely losing their lives because of air pollutants, which must be fully factored into the costing of climate risk.
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