Sarah Paine
About
Military historian (publishes as S.C.M. Paine), Patel's most popular guest
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Claims by Sarah Paine (20 of 477)
The Suez Canal's construction reduced transportation costs by sea dramatically compared to overland routes, making oceanic trade the dominant shipping mode and obsoleting the Silk Road economic model—when Egypt blockaded the Suez in 1967 for eight years, shipping companies responded by building larger container ships and routing around Africa, further marginalizing inland trade routes.
The United States occupies a curious geopolitical position: acting initially as a typical continental power (invading Canada twice, proclaiming the Monroe Doctrine), but preferring checkbook diplomacy over military conquest, purchasing territory (Louisiana, Alaska) when financially feasible while using large armies only when diplomatic purchases failed.
When Mahan's six prerequisites are applied to Russia and China today, both fail the test: both have numerous hostile neighbors, lack reliable sea egress, lack commerce-driven economies, lack dense coastal populations, and lack stable government institutions with transparent power transitions—making them structurally incapable of sustainable maritime strategies.
The post-WWII institutional settlement—the UN, IMF, World Bank, WTO, NATO, EU, and regional security arrangements—was built by the World War II generation specifically to prevent another great depression and global war, creating a maritime-based rules-based order dependent on maintaining peace and allowing trade.
Maritime power strategy depends on negative objectives (preventing things from happening) rather than positive objectives (making things happen), which makes maritime successes invisible—if the navy prevents trade destruction and territorial expansion, it appears nothing happened rather than a strategic victory occurring.
When Commodore Matthew Perry bombarded Japan's coast with his black ships in the 19th century, Japan responded not merely by seeking modernization (importing technology) but by pursuing full westernization—reforming civil and military institutions, education, judiciary, finance, and politics—which culminated in the Meiji Restoration and a new constitution, positioning Japan to renegotiate unequal treaties with Britain within ten days.
Japan's geopolitical error in pursuing the Second Sino-Japanese War and beyond was adopting a continental foreign policy from an island location—fighting for territorial conquest on the Asian mainland rather than investing in maritime dominance and global trade, which its island geography and sea-defensibility should have dictated.
Britain developed a coordinated grand strategy for 'elephant hunting' (defeating continental powers) involving six rules: (1) protect trade to fund everything; (2) blockade enemies' trade to weaken them; (3) arm and fund continental allies fighting the main front; (4) create peripheral theaters where sea power has advantage and force the enemy to divide forces; (5) avoid direct engagement with the enemy's main army until very late in the war; and (6) only engage the main army late when the enemy is exhausted.
Alfred Thayer Mahan identified six prerequisites for a maritime power: a protective moat (natural security), a dense internal transport grid, reliable egress by sea, a commerce-driven economy, a dense coastal population producing and trading goods, and stable government institutions that promote commerce and fund navies.
Halford Mackinder's 'Heartland' theory identifies the Russian Empire as the citadel of land power, insulated by mountains, deserts, frozen seas, and dead-end rivers that preclude sea access, giving it advantages in strategic defense-in-depth and self-sufficiency, but forcing maritime powers to project power through bases, colonies, and alliances on the Eurasian periphery (the 'Rimland').
Nicholas Spykeman observed that U.S. security depends on sea power because the only way Eurasian powers can threaten the U.S. is by sea, and conversely, the only way the U.S. can project power onto Eurasia is by sea—making allied bases on the Eurasian Rimland essential to American security strategy.
Russia expanded eastward to the Pacific coast following lucrative fur trade routes, using provincial boundaries and military governorships as instruments of integrating conquered territories—a strategy similar to China's use of changing provinces and military regions to homogenize and neutralize incorporated populations.
In continental power logic, armies exist primarily to protect the ruling regime through internal control, and secondarily to garrison the empire and prevent defections—only tertiarily are they oriented to external border defense, a fundamentally different military purpose from maritime powers whose armies are always designed for expeditionary 'away games' across the sea.
World War II casualty data reveals a sharp divide between continental and maritime powers: continental powers (Germany, Soviet Union, China, Poland) suffered military deaths in the millions; maritime powers (Britain, United States) suffered far fewer. Adding civilian deaths amplifies this disparity, with continental powers losing millions more civilians than maritime powers—a reflection of fighting on home terrain.
China's 1996 ratification of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) committed it to recognizing 12 nautical miles of foreign maritime rights, yet China claims 200 nautical miles in the East and South China Seas—a direct treaty violation that reflects continental power logic attempting to impose territorial control on maritime commons.
The Industrial Revolution transformed the basis of international power from land (which produced commodities and provided conscripts) to commerce and industry, making countries that industrialize richer and more powerful than those that do not—compounding effects mean the gap between industrialized and non-industrialized countries becomes unbridgeable over time.
Malcolm McLean's containerization innovation reduced shipping costs from nearly six dollars per ton to less than 20 cents per ton, and standardized container sizes allowed goods to move seamlessly by truck, rail, and sea—this transportation revolution is ongoing and continues to reduce relative to the value of goods shipped.
The largest modern ultra-large crude tankers have capacity of 250,000 deadweight tons, while the largest container ships carry over 21,000 containers—dwarfing the capacity of rail transport (which cannot exceed roughly 600 containers per train) and making land-based routes like China's Belt and Road Initiative economically uncompetitive for cargo movement.
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