Real inflation is probably around 8 to 10%, significantly higher than reported CPI data, because oil prices, food prices, and general household expenses have not declined despite CPI appearing to hit 12-month lows.

Historical precedent shows that equity markets decline sharply after Fed rate cuts: December 1929 minus 79%, December 2000 minus 41%, September 2007 minus 55%, suggesting the current market assumption that rate cuts will boost equities is dangerously false.

Markets are not pricing in the impact of wars in Europe and the Middle East; four years into World War II, US markets were not pricing in war until Japan attacked Hawaii and then markets collapsed, and the current geopolitical situation mirrors this precedent.

The group controlling Washington policy has become so desperate to prevent Trump winning that war escalation (NATO vs Russia, Israel vs Hezbollah/Iran) or domestic shock (COVID variant, dirty bomb, assassination) is likely before the November election, with probability increasing significantly after the Trump assassination attempt.

Before end of September 2024, a massive shock to the system will likely occur through either a false flag attack on Russia (forcing Russia to make first move), cyber attack, or dirty bomb, which will send equity markets and base metals down approximately 40%.

NATO has warned member governments in early May 2024 that an attack on Russia will occur and populations should stock up on food and other essentials; this message briefly appeared in the London Times and was then deleted.

Russia's destruction of a NATO bunker in Kiev with three hypersonic missiles killed approximately 18 NATO officers; debris from the bombing fell on a nearby Children's Hospital, which was then falsely reported by media as a Russian attack on the hospital itself.

NATO has sent longer-range missiles to Ukraine that can hit neighboring countries deeper into Russia, and Finland has given access to US military to use 15 Finnish military bases, demonstrating NATO is positioning itself to attack Russia whenever it chooses.

BRICS is planning a new currency called the 'unit' that will be backed 40% by gold and 60% by local BRICS currencies (all linked to gold), which would signal the beginning of the end of the dollar's dominance if adopted.

Gold investors should hold physical gold outside the banking system in personal possession, not in banks or via paper instruments, to preserve wealth through the coming crisis.

Silver should be used as a trading vehicle rather than a long-term wealth preservation asset like gold, because while silver has industrial demand, it is vulnerable to economic weakness that would reduce industrial copper consumption.

Next year (2025), with the dollar falling and inflation resurging, end-users will replenish copper stocks, financial community will buy physical copper and futures, and prices will rise sharply on the back of a significant deficit that emerges.

From 2027 onwards, investors should exit all asset positions (other than monetary assets) due to expected rolling recessions or depression; only in the 2030s, after global powers coordinate spheres of interest, debt washout occurs, and GDP growth reverts to historic 4% average, will base metals enter a bull market.

The macro macro development (recession/depression) will be a bigger force than new copper demand drivers (renewables, EVs, data centers, grid expansion), meaning demand growth cannot offset macro weakness, so base metals will collapse despite electrification tailwinds.

China's copper consumption is increasingly supplied by cheaper sources (Russian cathode at discounts, African LME offgrade material at discounts) which allow Chinese manufacturers to undercut global competitors, while Western consumption is flat and increasingly supplied from South America.

There is a possibility (not certainty) that the 2024 US election will not occur due to war or other catastrophic event, representing an extreme tail risk scenario.

The copper market will be well-supplied in 2024 despite concentrate shortages because China's large, well-capitalized smelters can operate profitably at negotiated contract terms, while medium and smaller smelters will struggle and stop operating until concentrate supplies rebalance.

The US economy is softening rapidly beneath surface data; job losses in the household survey were down approximately 400,000, and unemployment has increased to 4.1%, while companies are shedding staff despite establishment survey lags.

Simon previously predicted gold would reach $2,500 per ounce by 2025, but now believes gold prices could spike to $3,000, $4,000, or $5,000 as his bearish outlook on geopolitical situation has intensified, with rapid acceleration likely rather than gradual increase.

According to experts, the attempted assassination of Donald Trump involved either Secret Service or intelligence fraternity incompetence or complicity, evidenced by the shooter's ability to walk across a field with a rifle, find a hidden ladder, climb a building while crowd members shouted warnings that were ignored.