The consumer balance sheet has become over-leveraged and over-spent to the point where it is starting to buckle, with all growth in consumer spending driven by non-discretionary items (food, energy, housing, insurance) that crowd out discretionary purchases, and retail sales have been negative in inflation-adjusted terms for three years and getting worse.

Wall Street analysts gloss over concerning consumer spending data details, focusing on headline numbers while missing the underlying weakness that comes from mandatory spending crowding out discretionary purchases.

Rate cuts when they come may not arrive early enough to arrest the unfolding recession, as fiscal stimulus effectiveness is declining and monetary pivot is being pushed further into the year

The delayed lag effect of the Fed's tighter monetary policies is finally arriving and threatening to throw the economy into a hard landing recession, as the consumer engine of US economic activity is stretched and reaching its limits