Stephen Cotkin
About
Historian, Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at Hoover Institution, former Princeton professor, author of three-volume Stalin biography and works on Soviet history and US-Russia relations
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Claims by Stephen Cotkin (20 of 101)
If the West does not destroy Russian production facilities and does not create political alternatives to Putin's regime, the West must break Russia's will to fight, which is the remaining lever; without ability destruction or alternative creation, forcing war termination requires breaking Russian political will.
A prevalent theory that emerged from German generals sponsored by the US military after WWII portrayed Hitler as a poor military commander who made mistakes, while Soviet victory is often incorrectly attributed to 'General Winter' (the Russian winter) rather than Soviet military achievement.
The US and European technology transfer to the Soviet Union in the 1930s—including tank prototypes, blueprints, and machinery for every major Soviet Five-Year Plan except synthetic rubber—enabled Stalin to build the military-industrial complex that produced Soviet weaponry decisive in defeating Nazi Germany during WWII.
Destroying the ability to fight (productive capacity: tank factories, airplane factories, ball bearing factories, aluminum factories) is distinct from and more decisive than destroying individual military assets on the battlefield; the US won WWII primarily by using air power to annihilate German and Japanese industrial capacity, not by killing soldiers.
The West has not destroyed Russian production facilities or the production facilities of Iran and North Korea (suppliers of munitions to Russia), and we are not bombing Russian productive capacity for artillery shells and drones, therefore we are not winning a war of attrition against Russia.
Tanks on the battlefield have a shelf life of a few days before breaking down and require skilled workers in nearby workshops for repair; sending tanks without sending thousands of workers and workshops close to the battlefield makes tank supply ineffective because damaged tanks cannot be repaired and returned to the front.
Richard Avery's recent book argues that Lend-Lease cooperation and resource sharing among the Allies was more decisive than destruction of enemy productive capacity in winning WWII; this argument is presented as an alternative to Phillips Payson O'Brien's production-destruction thesis.
Stalin was a very poor military commander with no understanding of tactics or combining tactical with strategic operations, continued to make mistakes throughout the war, but was extraordinarily skilled at organizing production on the home front and managing the Soviet command war economy with detailed knowledge of factories, directors, and production profiles.
Nazi atrocities consolidated Soviet patriotism, transforming it from a pre-existing sentiment into an unbreakable will to resist; the combination of Ukrainian valor and Russian atrocities is the driving force of the current war, demonstrating that atrocities can paradoxically strengthen enemy resolve.
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