The 10-year Treasury yield has risen above 4%, consistent with Luke Groman's September 2024 forecast that it would return above 4% in the following period, confirming that his thesis on Treasury yields was correct and suggesting his other forecasts (4.6-4.8% further upside, eventual yield curve control) may also be reliable.

The S&P 500 is down 3% on the day of the interview, the Dow is down 1,000+ points, gold is up 3% to above $3,400 per ounce, and Bitcoin is also up 3%, indicating a broad risk-off market dynamic with flight-to-safety (gold) and currency hedges (Bitcoin) outperforming equities.

In the past, when Trump has escalated tariffs, the U.S. dollar has typically risen; however, in the current period (early 2025), capital is flowing out of the dollar and the dollar index (DXY) is declining despite tariff escalation.

The S&P 500 is currently down 3%, the Dow dropped over 1,000 points, gold is up 3% to over $3,400 per ounce, and Bitcoin is up 3%—these asset moves reflect the divergence between stocks and precious metals that began in early-to-mid April.