The central bank's target of 2% inflation is arbitrary and rooted in a decision made by the New Zealand Central Bank decades ago; no one really knows why 2% specifically rather than 3% or 1%.

It is possible that China could eventually become the world's most dominant economy because its population is about 4 times that of the US, so China needs only a per capita GDP of 1/4 of the US (which it is approaching) to match total GDP; however, this is constrained by concerns about Chinese political stability.

Economic growth began accelerating rapidly around 1820, marking an inflection point where per capita GDP growth exploded from nearly flat growth to rapid growth; this date corresponds to the introduction of railroads and telegraphs in England, completing all four growth factors.

Buying foreign real estate is theoretically possible as a confiscation hedge but is very complicated, cumbersome, and messy, so Bernstein does not recommend it despite acknowledging it is legal.

If nuclear devastation were to occur, your investment portfolio would be irrelevant because everyone's wealth becomes meaningless.

People sorting themselves into geographically separated communities based on political ideology is described by the 'Big Sort' concept from a book by Bill Bishop, written 15-20 years before Michael Lewis's 'The Big Short.'

Extremist groups on both sides are increasingly reluctant to engage in organized violence because they are paranoid about agent provocateurs and government infiltration, making them wary of violent demonstrations.

Empathy encourages people to take more risk when markets are booming, and this tendency to take on excess risk during good times turns out to bite them when crisis arrives.

Credit cycles from leverage and deleveraging cycle over approximately 10-year periods, though this is rough and not reliable (e.g., the 1930s cycle lasted 30 years), making it impossible to time precisely.

When the price of money approaches zero, the price of everything else becomes volatile and unpredictable, creating economic distortion.

In the early 1960s, there was a tax on excess distributions from IRAs exceeding $100,000, which Bernstein suggests could recur under a Democratic administration and would constitute confiscation of a sort.

Inflation is the most important of four major long-term financial risks, as it is ubiquitous throughout financial history and very few nations have escaped either serious inflation or hyperinflation.

There is almost no effective way for US citizens to protect against government confiscation of assets without incurring legal risks, except for buying physical gold and storing it in foreign vaults, which avoids income reporting requirements.

The United States faces a 10-20% probability of a debt-spiral hyperinflation over the next several years to decades, driven by unsustainable government deficits that neither political party is willing to address through spending cuts or tax increases.

Deflation is a second major financial risk that typically occurs during financial panics and is usually short-lived but very damaging; in the era of vigorous central banks and fiat currency, it is relatively easy to address.

Confiscation—when governments take away assets—is a third major financial risk, with catastrophic historical examples in China and the Soviet Union over the past 150 years.

Devastation—existential risks including nuclear war—is the fourth major financial risk; the world came close to nuclear exchange during the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 and on several other occasions in the past 50 years.

The fractional reserve banking system creates inherent instability because banks create money when times are good and expand leverage, but when confidence erodes people withdraw deposits and deleveraging becomes a painful process, creating cycles of instability.

Bernstein is skeptical of cryptocurrency as a confiscation hedge because the price is very unstable (not a good store of value) and there is significant security risk; he believes the US government and potentially North Korean hackers have likely figured out ways to hack into blockchain systems.

Nuclear devastation is by far the most important existential risk facing the world; if given a choice between accepting a 10% risk of nuclear exchange or suffering the consequences of global warming, nuclear risk is the more critical threat to mitigate.