PHIL ANDERSON: Why Jim Rickards, Harry Dent and Robert Kiyosaki Will Always Be WRONG
What this covers
In this video, Phil Anderson shares why a financial crisis is not coming soon and why economists like Harry Dent, Jim Rickards and Robert Kiyosaki will always be wrong and what is missing from their economic predictions.
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Phil Anderson has studied economics and markets for over 25 years. He is the acclaimed author of The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking. Since 1991, he has provided economic forecasting services to a large following of investors who have since benefited from his life changing market insights. Back in 2001 for example, Phil successfully called the economic peak that occurred in 2007. He suggested that people prepare for a major economic bust to follow. This ended up being what we now know as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09. In addition, when the world was sure the crisis would continue Phil said that the opposite would happen, predicting that from 2010 the recovery would begin and would be led by US stocks. This is exactly what happened.
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Mainstream economic forecasters systematically fail because they exclude land as a factor of production, a deliberate omission engineered by 20th-century capitalists and universities to protect their landholdings; reinstating land in economic models reveals inevitable real estate cycles and the mechanism driving property price appreciation.
- Land was deliberately purged from economic theory around 1920 by institutions and railroads that owned vast land holdings
- Every mainstream economist since lacks the framework to understand land rents capitalize into prices, explaining why institutions like the Federal Reserve cannot forecast
- Once land is included as a factor of production alongside labor and capital, real estate cycles and property price movements become predictable
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In the mid-1800s when American capitalists and railroads created prodigious wealth, that wealth was concentrated in just a few families like the Vanderbilts, JP Morgans, oil barons like Rockefeller, triggering a reform movement demanding wealth redistribution.
“in the mid 1800s when all the the American capitalists and the railroads came in and American really got going created a prodigious amount of wealth that was taken by just a couple of people really the Vanderbilts and the JP Morgans and the like and the Oil Barons Rockefeller and so and there was a a reform movement that came through that said that the wealth had to be better distributed”
Henry George showed that land has an earnings capacity analogous to labor's wages and capital's profits, and this earnings is called rent; if communities collected land rent while allowing private land ownership, everyone would be rich.
“one of the guys was Henry George and he came through and he showed that the land is really important and land has an earnings as uh labor does with wages and capital does with profits land has an earning space too it's called rent if you collect that rent if you if you allow people if you allow everybody in the world to own the land but because they're able to own the land you you owe the the rent of the earnings of that land to the community if that was put into practice everybody would be rich”
Henry George's land rent theory found around 1880-1900s was considered deeply offensive to landlord and capitalist classes who were collecting rents, leading them to suppress and eliminate the concept from economics.
“this was found around about 1880 1890 1900s this was found to be really offensive to the landlord class to the capitalist classes to those that were collecting the rent and only and there was only a few families a job was done with the economists just after just about 100 thereabouts”
The book 'The Corruption of Economics' by Mason Gaffney and Fred Harrison documents how the concept of land was deliberately written out of economics as a factor of production.
“there was only a few families a job was done with the economists just after just about 100 thereabouts it's documented I just happened to it's in it's a book called the corruption of Economics it's written by Mason Gaffney and a very famous now called Fred Harrison they documented how the concept of land was absolutely deliberately written out of economics”
All wealth production requires exactly three factors: land, labor, and capital, and these three fundamental inputs have been understood since the beginning of classical economics through David Ricardo and Adam Smith.
“there are three things that are required to produce everything you see around you so you know you look around your own house whatever it is you have to have three things you have to have land labor and capital and I don't want to get into too too much um economic terms but you need those you need those three things um to produce wealth from the beginning of the economist David Ricardo and Adam Smith and forward”
Starting around 1920, American institutions and universities that owned prodigious amounts of land (along with railroads) deliberately removed the concept of land from economics textbooks and curricula.
“so going forward from about 1920 a bit more Mason Gaffney names the the several economists that's because the American institutions and the universities they owned and so did the railroads owned a prodigious amount of land so they wrote land out of the economy out of economics”
Every single economist trained in universities since approximately 1920 lacks a conceptual framework understanding land as a factor of production that generates wealth, causing all mainstream economists to be unable to forecast correctly.
“every single person that's gone through the economics faculty since that time does not have a concept of land being a factor of production that produces wealth and the results of that are seeing today where you've got absolutely every mainstream Economist that simply uh will never be able to forecast and will never get economics correct because they don't include land in their equation of Economics”
Banks are permitted to create credit based on capitalized land earnings (land prices), which must create volatility where land prices keep rising.
“we've got a system where we allow the banks to create credit on this earnings of land which has been capitalized into a price that must create a volatility where land prices keep going up”
The more discoveries humans make, the more people settle in big cities, and the more communal society becomes, the higher land prices must go—this is an absolute certainty.
“the more discoveries we make the more that people settle in big cities the more things that people do the more communal that we get the higher lamp PR must go it's really really simple it really is”
Once land is included in the economic equation, you have a complete picture of economics and can understand that a real estate cycle is absolutely certain and inevitable because land's earnings capitalize into a price.
“once you put land into the equation you now have a a complete picture of economics and you know that because the earnings of land is permitted to capitalize into a price you absolutely must get a real estate cycle it's just absolutely 100%”
Land earnings (now called land price) operate as a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio where earnings capitalize into price; David Ricardo proved in 1810 that land earnings must take the gains, therefore land prices must go up 100% certainly.
“once you see this it's just it's like being out of it's astounding it just opens up a whole whole Panorama of being able to actually see things before they happen the earnings of land which is now called land price because the earnings it's like a PE really the the price price is the capitalized earnings the PE when the earnings of land capitalize into a price this is what the early reformers knew and David Ricardo proved this back in 1810 land the earnings of land land price must take the gains so therefore land price must go up absolutely must 100% certain must go up”
The Federal Reserve, despite being one of the biggest institutions in the world with 3,000-5,000 economists, cannot forecast what is coming next because these economists do not include land in their economic models.
“there really is only one conspiracy that's the that land's been written out of economics and consequently the FED has three four 5,000 economists working for them this is one of the biggest institutions in the world and they don't know what's coming next right it it's it's just never ceased to amaze me”
Famous forecasters including Harry Dent, Robert Kaki, Jim Rickards, Mark Boris, and Martin North have all predicted the property market would crash, but instead the market has continued to rise over 3-5 years, proving their forecasts wrong.
“Harry Dent Robert Kaki Jim Rickards in have god um Mark Boris Martin North I have gone over all of my old tapes they've all said the property Market was going to hell in the hand basket don't buy another property you you know you're going to lose your money this was 3 4 years ago five years ago some of and here we are and the market contined to rise”
Once subscribers understand the land-based economic framework, it puts them on a completely different analytical road than they were on before, waking them up to a new way of seeing reality.
“one my subscribers and once they've seen it it puts them on a road it puts just puts them on a different completely different road than they've been on before just wakes them up”
There is a specific debate between Bill and Harry Dent around 2017 in a hotel suite where Bill predicted property would not crash until 2026-2027, while Harry Dent insisted a crash was imminent.
“I remember you and I and a whole bunch of people with Port Philip publishing yes six seven eight years ago in that stuffy hotel suite and you had a debate with Harry and Harry said then was it a 2017 maybe you Harry said that they going to crash now and you said no very calm and cool as you are I feel no Harry it's not going to crash until 2016 27”