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SATURDAY, 28.09.2024 / 19h30 VOLKSTHEATER
In this talk, one of the greatest geopolitical thinkers of today, author of groundbreaking books on the history of the Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe, and most recently the monumental biography of Joseph Stalin, STEPHEN KOTKIN, sets out a series of propositions to help us understand the contemporary world order, the key trends, the inflection points, and the ways that policymakers could intervene to shape the direction in which the world will go. In conversation with IWM Permanent Fellow IVAN KRASTEV, he looks at the current geopolitical moment in historical perspective. ------------- Part of the Vienna Humanities Festival 2024. In 2024, the festival was organized by the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM) and Time To Talk (TTT) in cooperation with FALTER, the Open Society Foundations, the City of Vienna, ERSTE Foundation, the Academy of Fine Arts Vienna, the Wien Museum, and the Volkstheater.
Learn more about the Vienna Humanities Festival here: https://www.humanitiesfestival.at
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Kotkin argues that while history moves faster than we perceive, the fundamental geopolitical structures and great power tensions have remained remarkably stable over 50 years; what has genuinely changed is connectivity, social media, and border dynamics, creating new management challenges rather than revolutionary transformations.
- The US-led international order with Eurasian opposition persists largely unchanged since the 1970s despite surface variations
- Technology and social media create destabilization and governance challenges that existing institutions may be unfit to handle
- Success itself creates new unforeseen problems (dual-use technology, demographic paradoxes, institutional obsolescence) requiring humility about permanent solutions
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Everything is now dual-use: civilian goods have both consumer and military applications, requiring governments to control the export and access of everyday innovations (mushroom bioengineering, genetically modified materials) to prevent adversaries from gaining military advantage, creating unprecedented surveillance and control challenges.
“everything is dual use now this is unbelievably complex...there was something called the military industrial complex and that was gigantic factories...now this is the military-industrial complex all civilian goods are dual use that is to say they have consumer applications and Military applications”
China is opaque as a political system compared to the transparent US system, making it difficult to determine whether Chinese military buildup is preparation for war or domestic positioning, requiring diplomatic engagement to clarify intentions.
“China is not an open Society or an open political system it's the largest economy in world recorded history that is opaque that we don't understand the decision-making processes that we don't have the United States unfortunately we understand too much”
Government shrank in only one period across a generation in recorded history (post-1815 after Napoleon's defeat); otherwise, government has been on a secular trend upward, meaning Reagan's conservative revolution did not succeed in permanently reducing government size.
“and the results of the Reagan Landslide did government shrink did government become more responsible government in the anglo-american sphere shrank once across a generation in recorded history in the period after 1815 when Napoleon Was Defeated that's it otherwise it's been secular Trend up”
China has 50 million 18-to-24-year-old males with poor marriage prospects due to a gender imbalance from decades of the one-child policy, and if China attempts to cross the Taiwan Strait, the regime can absorb massive casualties because these young men are demographically expendable, whereas democratic Taiwan cannot, creating an asymmetry in willingness to accept losses.
“look at China how many 18 to 24 year olds does China have 50 million 50 million they have this demographic demographic um catastrophe where the birth rate is producing fewer than 11 million 9 million even children a year but they have 50 million 18 to 24 year olds a lot of whom have no marriage prospects”
Success creates new problems and unforeseen challenges: Reagan's privatization of airlines succeeded but made future deregulation impossible; the left's welfare state succeeded but now cannot be expanded; Cold War military institutions built to face the Soviet Union are now outdated legacy systems that trip over themselves; in each case, the solution to yesterday's problem becomes today's constraint.
“Reagan privatized the the airline industry several other Industries you can't do that again once Reagan succeeds at some of the policies that he's aiming for he makes it impossible to be Reagan...the same thing happened to the left with the welfare state”
Problems should be managed rather than solved permanently; the solution to climate crisis will create new problems we didn't anticipate; having corrective mechanisms built in allows us to address unintended consequences even if we cannot prevent them entirely.
“problems can be managed rather than solved this is humility right this is striving trying doing everything you can but having humility about perverse and unintended consequences and having humility about permanent Solutions as long as you have the corrective mechanisms built in you can solve even the problems you unintentionally created”
China faces a fundamental geopolitical disadvantage because it has only one coast that is Desert and home to ethnic minorities in concentration camps, while its East Coast is hemmed in by US military bases and allies, unlike the United States which has two protected coasts providing control of the Atlantic and Pacific.
“China has only one Coast China has no California that's the most important geopolitical fact you're ever going to hear the United States has two coasts and they're both Moes protecting the country and their highways of Commerce China's West Coast where we have California is Desert and getting bigger desert and it's also ethnic minorities who in some cases live in the equivalent of concentration camps...China's East Coast is completely hemmed in by US military bases and US allies and partners”
The mRNA vaccine was developed faster than any previous vaccine and is extremely efficacious, and mRNA technology is bioengineering; bioweapons concerns are being deflected toward biology by AI researchers to avoid accountability for AI-caused harms, but biological solutions (like mRNA vaccines) are more effective against bioweapons than prohibitions.
“the solution to bioweapons is biology like the MRNA vaccine which is bioengineering and which was developed faster than any other vaccine and is extremely efficacious I've now had four shots”
Technology and connectivity have created a genuinely new change: everyone is now connected via pocket computers and can broadcast to any part of the world in real-time, which is completely destabilizing and empowering in ways that did not exist in the 1970s.
“everybody is now connected all of you in this room can take out your computers they're called Phones now...you can explain to anybody or you can live stream...to any part of the world this is completely new there wasn't something like this in the 1970s”
Deterrence without diplomacy is insufficient for managing great power tensions, and conversely, diplomacy without deterrence is also insufficient; managing great power conflict requires both military readiness and vigorous diplomatic engagement simultaneously, yet modern politics polarizes into 'hawks' who emphasize deterrence and 'doves' who emphasize diplomacy only.
“history shows that you need deterrence and diplomacy you need to prepare for war so as not to fight War but you need very strong diplomacy so that you reduce the possibility of disagreements the possibility of miscalculation the possibility of misinterpreting one side's intentions or the other and it should be easy to combine deterrence and diplomacy”
Authoritarian regimes have advantages in military escalation because they can treat lives as expendable and can make rapid decisions without democratic accountability, whereas this asymmetry is partially offset by democracies having corrective mechanisms and the ability to adapt, but the asymmetry remains concerning for future conflicts.
“a war of attrition where lives don't matter where you don't pay the cost and don't care for an authoritarian regime is problematic even when they face demographic crisis”
American power is undermining itself through 'Ponzi scheme' fiscal irresponsibility with no end, which is a fundamental concern about the sustainability of the US-led international order.
“I'm concerned that American power is undermining itself because of the Ponzi scheme fiscal irresponsibility that has no end”
China has looked at Japanese robotization success and is pursuing robotization to offset labor force shortfalls, while female labor participation rates and pension rates also affect how countries mitigate demographic decline.
“the Chinese have looked at what the Japanese have achieved in this and they're on their way uh to robotization so that the shortfalls in the labor force can be managed potentially making them available again for for war and then you have the issue of female labor participation and elderly labor participation what is the pension rate so demographics is a really big driver”
Giant organizational structures systematically get worse over time in their performance despite good intentions and capable personnel, and governments are no exception—this is basic organizational theory taught on day one—yet we are currently asking government to do more and more while its delivery of basic services declines, creating a trajectory where performance is declining while demands increase.
“gigantic organization structures get worse over time their performance declines...basic organizational Theory the first day in organizational Theory they tell you that there's a problem in size and no matter how well intentioned no matter how good the people and civil servants are often very good people...the performance of that system gets worse”
People can be dissatisfied with government performance even when the economy is growing and they are receiving their share of benefits, because their mood is determined by cultural factors and perceptions rather than material conditions alone.
“some people are dissatisfied with the performance of government they're dis for whatever reason they're not happy the economy can be growing they can be getting their share of whatever it is that the government has promise them they can be doing just fine but their mood is sour their mood is very sour part of that is cultural”
Deep cultural divides exist on fundamental questions like when life begins (at conception vs. birth), and these are irreconcilable compromises that cannot be split politically, amplifying democratic dysfunction when government becomes the battleground for these questions.
“we have deep profound unbridgeable in many cases cultural divide now Amplified by frighting more and more onto Government and Amplified by the fact that every one of you is a publisher we have deep irreconcilable differences about when life begins does it begin at conception or does it begin at Birth it's hard to find a compromise on questions like that”
The US-led international maritime order with West Germany and Japan as allies, opposed by a Eurasian land empire, is fundamentally the same geopolitical structure that existed 50 years ago, with the main change being that China rather than Russia is now the senior partner in anti-Western opposition.
“50 years ago there was a confrontation a cold war between the United States its allies and partners...West Germany and Japan the two principal enemies of the United States in World War II had been folded into the US Maritime open International System...you would have been opposed by a Eurasian land Empire”
The left's electoral strategy lacks a viable path to power because anti-capitalism cannot be achieved through democratic elections—people will not vote to have their property expropriated—so the left must rely on administrative imposition (what Lenin called 'party of a new type', now called 'human resources'), whereas the right has the electoral advantage of nativism, which does provide a path to power despite not delivering tangible improvements.
“what's the Electoral path to power for the left anti- capitalism you can't get elected there's no electoral path to power with anti- capitalism who's going to vote to give up their property...anti- capitalism can only be imposed by a party of a new type administratively as Lenin called it or as we call it today Human Resources”
Russia faces a severe demographic crisis with a projected declining population, and its wars of conquest are counterproductive for demographic recovery because soldiers lost in war exceed the population gained from territorial annexation, making warfare an irrational strategy for addressing demographic decline.
“Russia has severe demographic crisis and the projection going forward is poor for them and if they want to be a great power they need a larger population...once women uh start to have opportunities and make choices and once women are empowered to make even partially empowered to make choices and once fertility rates decline they don't really come back”
The Soviet Union could negotiate with the United States to stabilize the international order and accept the Helsinki Accords because it had achieved borders of victory; in contrast, Russia today has borders of defeat, which makes stabilizing relations fundamentally harder and reduces incentives for Russia to accept the current order.
“the Soviet borders were borders of Victory...so the Soviets could become a status quo power they could enter into deals with the United States...they could concede a human rights Clause...because they got recognition of their borders of Victory”
The current obsession with risks of bioweapons is disproportionate because natural bioweapons already exist in frozen form (anthrax, typhus, polio in refrigerators), and bioweapons' main challenge is delivery systems, which are also not new; therefore the fear of engineered bioweapons is partly exaggerated misdirection.
“we have a complete set of bioweapons in existence now created by Mother Nature you need want some anthrax you want some tyus you want some polio we have them in the refrigerator we don't need any bioweapons the problem with bioweapons is delivery vehicles but we have those too so we don't need the bioweapons that people are fearing”
Iran's average age has risen from 17 in 1979 (enabling the Islamic Revolution and prolonged war with Iraq) to 37 today, making such revolutionary mobilization impossible without finding young, grievance-motivated populations elsewhere, which Iran now does through its 'axis of resistance' in Gaza, Lebanon, and similar regions.
“Iran the average age in Iran in 1979 9 when they had the islamist Revolution was 17 17 you can do a lot of Revolution with an average age of 17 especially 17y old 18y old 19y old men...the average age in Iran today is 37 they can't do this anymore”
Measured by historical standards (poverty rates, infant mortality, maternal mortality, availability of technology), human welfare has improved massively in the last 50 years—yet public mood has become increasingly sour because welfare is measured relatively, not absolutely, and disappointment derives from unfulfilled expectations rather than actual deprivation.
“this the people who made up the 20% poverty rate in the United States that 50 years ago if they were measured the same way today they would be 2% of the US population now we still have mass poverty because it's a relational it's a completely relational measurement”
Modern presidential second terms tend to be less effective and sometimes catastrophic compared to first terms, with Nixon resigning shortly after his 1972 landslide and Johnson withdrawing rather than seeking re-election after his 1964 victory, suggesting even landslide victories don't produce lasting political change.
“let's remember there have been four modern landslides in American history Roosevelt...Roosevelt won big there was something lasting and enduring that came out of that Landslide...next really big Landslide was lynon Johnson in 1964...four years later Johnson didn't even run he was gone so much for that Landslide...then another big Landslide was yep 1972 Nixon he almost swept the table and how long was it after that landslide that he resigned not very long poof gone”
A free society cannot use unfree methods to preserve freedom without ceasing to be a free society; therefore, attempts to regulate social media through authoritarian means would undermine the freedoms being protected.
“I'm concerned about the social media how to assimilate that because if you're a free Society you have to be a free Society you can't use unfree methods to be a free society that doesn't really work you might as well just not be a free Society”
The European Union's greatest success—making war unthinkable among its members—has created a corresponding vulnerability: Europe has lost the ability to mobilize for conflict despite external threats, because its pacified political culture cannot easily adapt to the prospect of war.
“the major success of Europe...was to make the war Unthinkable yes and basically and Europe succeeded and now the major vulnerability of Europe is that we make the war Unthinkable so even if the war is coming Europe's response to the war is by the way like in this uh American movie in which a guy had been never living his apartment just watching uh the uh television and ch ch uh changing the channels so when he was robbed on the street he didn't know what to do”
Radio, television, and social media each presented a claim that they would end democracy or civilization, but civilization persisted and adapted; we should expect the same of social media despite legitimate concerns about its destabilizing effects.
“this is the third time the first time was radio...and the intelligencia could do nothing about it...and we got Roosevelt...and the same damn thing happened again but this time with images it was television...we got Kennedy...third time again the end of the world the end of democracy...we got Trump...but the difference this time is not that just the people who control broadcast...it's that you are the broadcasters now”
Bioengineering has been used to create materials stronger than almost anything on Earth through modification of a few cells, demonstrating the potential of biological engineering to solve materials science and manufacturing challenges.
“you have a seen plexiglass little bit of bioengineering and that plexiglass is stronger than anything on Earth just from bioengineering a few cells”
DNA can store more data than any other medium, and DNA that was frozen in the tundra for 750,000 years remains viable, making DNA superior to current digital storage systems which deteriorate within years (floppy disks become useless, hard drives fail).
“you want to store your data you you can store it on DNA you can't see DNA with the naked eye but you can store more data on DNA than you can store anywhere else and we have DNA that was frozen in the tundra that's 750,000 years old good luck any of your data today lasting 750,000 years”
Your body will become your hospital and your cells will become your laboratories for diagnostics; instead of sending samples to a $300 million lab and waiting a week for results, bioengineered diagnostics will detect disease through simple bodily tests that provide immediate results.
“your body is going to become your hospital your cells are going to become your Laboratories for testing whether you are sick or not and how to fix whether you're sick so instead of taking a covid test and sending it out to a gigantic laboratory that cost $300 million and waiting a week to get the result back you're going to be able to take stuff from somewhere else in your body and put it up your nose and your boogers are going to turn purple if you have Co otherwise you don't have Co”
Teenagers in bioscience laboratories at Stanford are conducting genetic engineering (creating new life forms), demonstrating that bioengineering is already accessible to very young people without requiring massive institutional infrastructure.
“we had this Su prin have it at Stanford they're 18 years old they sign a piece of paper that says I won't bring the new forms of life that I make in the lab home with me to the door and they're 18 so it's happened already”
Russia has failed to robotize its economy relative to other major powers (unlike South Korea and Japan), and has not even begun serious military robotization or civilian innovation in robotics, limiting its ability to offset demographic decline through technological substitution for labor.
“Russia has the lowest percentage of robotization of any major economy in the world whereas places like South Korea or Japan are leaders in this area...Russia has not done anything about robotization even in the military sphere to an extent but certainly not in civilian life and medicine and in factories”
Authoritarian regimes do not have internal trust among themselves or within their own institutions, making partnerships between authoritarian powers (China-Russia-Iran) inherently unstable and uncertain in durability.
“it's not an alliance authoritarian regimes don't have trust among other authority let alone they don't have trust inside their own regime let alone with others so it's always a little bit awkward when they make Partnerships there's always wondering about whether it's going to endure or not and for how long”
The US lost the Vietnam War militarily but won the peace in the fullness of time, as Vietnam has become a pro-American country; conversely, the US recently won the war in Afghanistan but lost the peace; the implication is that military victory and geopolitical victory are not identical.
“the US lose the Vietnam War little did you know that the US was going to win the peace in the fullness of time and Vietnam despite all the atrocities was going to become a pro-american country amazing you could lose the war and win the peace”
West Germany and Japan, defeated as enemies in World War II, were transformed into the second and third largest economies and closest allies/partners of the United States through integration into an open trading system, representing an unprecedented achievement in geopolitics.
“West Germany and Japan the two principal enemies of the United States in World War II had been folded into the US Maritime open International System this is the most astonishing transformation probably ever in geopolitics where your two uh worst enemies in in a war a total war...and then the next thing you know they're among your closest allies and partners and they're the second and third biggest economies in the world”
Healthcare spending in the US is deeply irrational: 33% of annual American healthcare spending goes to the last year of life to prolong life for a few months, and America cannot afford this spending given fiscal constraints, yet democracies cannot reduce such spending without electoral consequences.
“last year of life is 33% of American healthc are spending last year of life that's it to prolong life for a few months is 33% of American who can afford that America can't afford that we're broke”
Three zones of territorial vulnerability persist for the US-led international order: Crimea and Ukraine, Israel and the broader Near East, and the South China Sea with Taiwan, because these represent borders of defeat for the anti-Western powers, making stabilization of relations with adversaries extremely difficult.
“there are three places on the globe where the US Leed International order is territorially vulnerable it's been the case for 30 years...Crimea Ukraine borders of defeat for Russia Israel borders of defeat for Iran...and South China Sea Taiwan...borders of defeat how do you stabilize relationships with your anti-western adversaries when we have borders of defeat”
Demographics will be a major geopolitical driver; the European Union cannot survive unless it figures out what to do with Africa, as demographic decline in Europe combined with population growth in Africa creates an existential challenge for European institutions and borders.
“demographics is a really big driver...the European Union will not survive unless it figures out what to do with Africa”
Both left and right resort to fiscal irresponsibility and massive spending as compensation for their inability to deliver on core programs: the left expands welfare despite unaffordability, the right cuts taxes without cutting spending, making fiscal disaster inevitable.
“so the fiscal volcano fiscal irres responsibility is how the left makes up for its problems and the right makes up for its problems let's think about this election in the United States...so both sides are offering fiscal irresponsibility”
The Pentagon was built as a State Department for Cold War Soviet containment and now represents 36% of global R&D spending, but this massive legacy institution is structurally obsolete for current geopolitical challenges and its very organizational weight prevents adaptation.
“36% of global R&D was the Pentagon in 1960 that late that doesn't work anymore you have this gigantic organization that trips over itself”
2024 is an unprecedented year in democratic history with 70 countries holding elections and 8 of the 10 most populous countries holding national elections, representing more than two billion eligible voters—marking remarkable progress in democracy compared to 1974 when many countries were authoritarian.
“we just are having the most amazing successful year in the history of democracy in the recorded history of democracy that's right 70 countries are voting this year that's never happened before eight of the 10 most populous countries are holding national elections this year”
Success creates problems greater than the problems it solves, and nobody knows where it ends—society becomes a self-devouring system like an Escher painting, where innovation in one domain creates vulnerabilities in another.
“not only does success success potentially create these challenges greater than the challenges that you solved but you don't know which end is up everything is is one of these cliche kitch eer paintings that you had on the wall at College you discovered that this eer thing was eating feeding on itself and there was no end to it and turns out that that guy was right and everything is dual use everything is this eer”
The innovation ecosystem and empowerment of people through distributed systems is the differentiator between democratic and authoritarian systems; it's unsatisfying, disappointing, full of failure, but astonishing and represents the advantage democracies possess.
“the corrective mechanisms and The Innovation ecosystem and the empowerment of people through some of the of the ways that we're talking about is the killer app it's what differenti iates us again unsatisfying again disappointing Again full of failure and shortcomings but astonishing”
The bioeconomy is already underway (almost 5% of the US economy) and will become a distributed power technology with democratizing potential, unlike the internet which centralized into Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook; biology can be done locally with minimal infrastructure, enabling countries without natural resources or wealth to build laboratories and produce energy and food independently.
“you will live to see the world become a bioeconomy yes it's already underway almost 5% of the US economy is the bioeconomy right now healthc are food and agriculture industrial processes”
Democratic institutions may be stronger than contemporary anxieties suggest, and even consequential-seeming elections may not determine broader trajectories because of deeper structural forces and institutional resilience that limit what electoral outcomes can actually change.
“maybe democracy is stronger than we think maybe the institutions are stronger than we think maybe the differences are great but not as great as we think maybe the outcomes the the order the Republic the international order doesn't necessarily ride on them although as I said they're consequential for many people and many issues”
The challenge for governments is mobilizing political support exactly when they must confront consequences not of failures but of successes, making the psychological and political mobilization extraordinarily difficult.
“how you're trying to mobilize political support exactly when you should confront the consequences not of your failures but of your successes”
The US 2024 election presents voters with the fourth Obama term (promising continued fiscal irresponsibility) versus Trump's lame-duck second term (also promising fiscal irresponsibility), and while the election is consequential for some people and issues, historical precedent from modern landslides suggests the outcome is unlikely to be as transformative as either side claims.
“on the one side what do we have we have the fourth Obama term the fourth Obama term in five Cycles...on the other side you have the second that is the lame duck term of trump...and what's he promising yes fiscal irresponsibility”
Trump's campaign promises (cut everyone's taxes, no taxes on tips or money) are essentially a Ponzi scheme dressed up as policy, which would have been called a fraud decades ago but is now presented as standard governance.
“he's promising yes fiscal irresponsibility I'll cut everybody's taxes and nobody will pay taxes on their tips or on their money or on anything in fact I'll just pay you that used to be called a pozi scheme where we were growing up and now it's called the US government”
Middle Eastern countries are drawn into great power conflicts not because of inherent regional instability but because they sit in a zone of great power competition; China, Russia, and the US all have interests in the Middle East, and regional actors align accordingly.
“Israel borders of defeat for Iran and Iran's proxies and the Arabs of Palestine”
The tortoise and slug joke is meant to illustrate that history moves so fast we can't perceive its changes clearly.
“there's this tortoise and it's just making its way no big deal slowly as tortoises do making its way and all of a sudden out of nowhere it's attacked it's attacked by a a slug...the tortoise calls the police...what happened and the tauris says you know it happens so fast I don't really know”
Kotkin left Princeton University after 33 years (the biblical lifespan) partly because he had doubts about whether he would have a resurrection (come back to faculty) after potential institutional censure.
“I was at Princeton University for 33 years which we know is the life of Jesus yes it's true and I left just before being crucified now not because I was afraid to be crucified but because I had doubts about the resurrection whether I was going to come back on Sunday or not I didn't think it was going to happen maybe it happened once I wasn't there but in my case for sure no and I got out”