The Hard Truth About Uranium Investing: Risks and Rewards
What this covers
Fabi Lara and Terry Papineau are both seasoned uranium investors and they bring their wealth of knowledge to this panel on the opportunities and pitfalls of investing in the uranium sector. The duo discuss the major tailwinds they see fueling the sector, how they mitigate jurisdictional risk, the stocks they're both bullish and bearish on, and much more.
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Follow Terry Papineau on X: https://x.com/TerryPapineau2 Follow Fabi Lara on X: https://x.com/TheNextBigRush Fabi's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@TheNextBigRush The Next Big Rush: https://www.thenextbigrush.com
00:00 Introduction 00:49 Important Uranium Trends 03:44 Is This Pullback a Buying Opportunity? 10:15 Jurisdictional Risk in Niger 18:45 What is Going on With NexGen? 28:48 M&A Activity in Uranium 32:45 Top Uranium Stocks
#uranium #uraniumstocks #nuclearpower
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The uranium sector fundamentals are strengthening across demand (nuclear renaissance, AI/data centers, SMRs) and supply constraints, making current price weakness a buying opportunity despite near-term volatility and geopolitical risks in specific jurisdictions.
- Demand drivers are multiplying (governments backing nuclear, SMRs being built, data centers needing reliable power) while supply remains constrained
- Current pullback is consolidation phase within a bull cycle, historically followed by 2-5x moves during mania phases
- Jurisdictional risks (Niger coup affecting Imara/Goviex) are real but company-specific; broader thesis remains intact
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A nuclear renaissance is underway globally with governments actively endorsing nuclear power as part of their energy strategy, as evidenced by Ontario breaking ground on an SMR, Saskatchewan pursuing SMR development with Cico and Westinghouse, and Bill Gates' Terrapower breaking ground on natrium reactors in Wyoming.
“governments uh throughout the world are really endorsing nuclear uh I think that's that's another theme with regards to um you know a real Renaissance in nuclear and uh that's going to be bolstered by another theme which is small Advanced modular reactors uh which uh you know like the province of Ontario broke ground in December in building an SMR uh there's an agreement that was reached a few weeks ago where the province of Saskatchewan wants to uh re that agreement also includes cico and wasting house they really want to you know move forward and and build one in Saskatchewan uh build Gates and Terra power broke ground in Wyoming”
The uranium sector is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance where supply risk is high and concentrated while demand is growing with very little risk, and this imbalance is expected to drive significant price appreciation.
“it's a supply demand story uh it's an imbalance and and the the story uh is just getting better in that regards with regards to uh the supply is the risk is really all on the supply side the demand side is growing with very little risk to it”
Goviex was dealt a significant blow by being told they must begin mine construction or mining operations by July of the current year, which is essentially impossible to achieve, placing the company in a severe position regardless of permit status.
“gox was dealt to blow when you know they were they were told that they need to to to begin the construction of the mine or mining by July of this year which is basically impossible to do uh so it places the company in a very tough position”
Artificial intelligence data centers require reliable 24/7 power and are increasingly looking at small modular reactors as a power solution, creating a new and growing demand driver for uranium that was not as prominent in previous uranium cycles.
“the a ey what we're hearing with regards to artificial intelligence the data centers where these these are just uh you know uh Power hungry centers and they need reliable 247 power so they're they're really looking at you know uh setting up uh these small modular reactors to power the data centers”
Markets consistently overshoot on both the upside and downside, so if a fundamental thesis is strengthening while price is flat or declining, this represents a classic buying opportunity regardless of the commodity.
“there's no reason why it won't happen again because that's what the market always does always overshoots on the upside and on the downside as well so if there's a disconnect and the story is getting better in any commodity not just in uranium I'd say yeah usually bar you know any bar just something re very very strange happening like another covid or something like that then I would say yeah a buy an opportunity for sure”
The United States uranium sector presents attractive consolidation opportunities because uranium deposits are geographically dispersed across small deposits rather than concentrated in large standalone ore bodies, creating M&A synergies for a company that consolidates multiple US mines
“I think there's lots of really great value in that region and just geologically the US presents itself as you know a place with a lot of uranium spread out in small little deposits and so you'll see that there you know a few different companies with a few different deposits here and there but nothing uh that is too large and so I think that you know somebody is going to come and say okay let's put all of these together and make you know like the the largest us-based uranium company”
Paladin is acquiring Fission for its Athabasca Basin flagship project, which was somewhat unexpected as other companies were anticipated as more likely acquirers.
“Paladin has announced they're moving to acquire fishing I don't think many people saw this coming um what do you think of this and and what are the implications for the uranium industry”
Mining industry investors are exceptionally high-risk-tolerance and willing to invest in assets that most outside the sector consider uninvestable, making uranium juniors a valid investment class despite execution risks that would disqualify other sectors
“you can't convince the banks to you know loan your money under such circumstances and so that's what I worry most Beyond you know just getting us investers to hop on board with goak because you know we're crazy like the mining the mining investing World we're absolutely Bonkers we invest in things that are absolutely not investable to anybody with a PST outside of this world”
To invest successfully in the mining sector, investors need to be 'a little bit local'—having on-the-ground knowledge or boots on the ground in key jurisdictions—which is difficult for remote investors to achieve, creating information asymmetries in jurisdictional risk assessment.
“to invest in the mining sector you got to be a little bit local uh and uh I I I'm certainly that I I still hold shares in both companies um I I'm sort of an optimist...uh you just do not know what they're going to do and unfortunately I don't have boots on the ground in the country or or you know an ear to the ground to know how things are going to go”
Terry Papino focuses on exploration companies in early stages before discovery, recognizing there is no real value until a deposit is found and shares are undervalued relative to discovery potential.
“I'm a Speculator not an investor and I I speculate in a lot of the uh the exploration companies um and you know there's not real value there until they find a deposit and that dep and and the shares are undervalued compared to what what they should be worth”
Niger's new junta government revoked the mining permit for Orano's Imara uranium mine (estimated 200,000 tons uranium in ground) as part of broader geopolitical tensions between Niger and France, with the new government demanding French troop withdrawal.
“I want to talk about news coming out of ner the government which is a a newer government there was a coup there for those who are unaware um they have pulled French Mining Company oro's permit for the imaran uranium mine with an estimated 200,000 tons of uranium in the ground so many believe this is related to nier's devolving relations with France the the new government wants french troops out of the country um they seem to be hostile to France”
Once media attention and retail investor interest enter the uranium market (mania phase), buying decisions will be driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals, meaning even companies like NextGen with poor capital discipline will experience massive price appreciation due to flows.
“at some point we're going to get into a media phase where the people buy nextg will only know the nextg is a uranium company and the Press is going up and that's it they're not going to go through the financials um you know it's like you know the the Nvidia crowd that's gone into it now and the uh the gme crowd and and all that like when we get to a stage of more bullishness people look less at the fundamentals of a particular company and even of the thesis”
Jurisdictional diversification is important when investing in uranium because company-specific and jurisdiction-specific risks can cause large drawdowns, so allocating smaller positions to higher-risk jurisdictions reduces portfolio volatility.
“and I think that's why being Diversified geographically is is important in the uranium space um and position sizing as well if if you're going to take that risk and buy a govy ex at this time you probably want to do that with a smaller allocation than you have to camoo”
Wyoming is an exceptionally favorable mining jurisdiction with strong local and political support for uranium mining, making it one of the best regulatory environments globally for uranium development.
“you actually go to Wyoming and people are pro uranium mining uh which is is it just bizarre does not happen Mo in most other places around the world and they want the mindes to come back they want that part of the economy to to be working again”
Energy Fuels has restarted uranium production and is historically the largest uranium producer in the United States, positioning it to ramp production as contracts are secured.
“you have a company in energ enery fuels that has just restarted producing uranium uh they're the largest uh they're going to be they they were historically the largest uranium producer in the United States so you know they've got the mines they've got the mill they're they're producing the uranium”
Working for NextGen carries significant reputational value ('brand') that employees can leverage to raise capital or secure positions at other companies, so the company has delivered value to employees even if shareholder capital was misallocated.
“if you've worked for nextg you take that on to your next job and you know raise money on the fact that you were part of nextg so good on them for being able to have the discovery”
Without NextGen's cooperation on infrastructure, Fission on its own would be a 'missed opportunity,' suggesting that Fission without NextGen development faces substantial economic challenges.
“Vision on its own without you know NextGen helping it and vice versa and building out you know the infrastructure for it would be such a missed opportunity”
Fabby participated in the IPO of a Sprott uranium royalty company but sold it after deeper analysis of the underlying assets revealed overpricing, but would now hold it for trend-following reasons despite believing it to be fundamentally overpriced
“and I participated in the IPO um of I don't even remember what the company uh what the company name is but it's it's the one where they hold the royalties I think it's urum royalties or something like that uranium yeah uranium royalty Corporation yeah exactly and I sold that because when I took a deeper look into you know what they own I'm like this is this completely overpriced like it makes no sense uh and next time around if that ever happens I'm going to hold it because it will continue to be overpriced and I have been able to find a hole in in that business model in over 10 years”
For uranium investors, entry and exit points matter far more than timing precision within the mania phase; historical evidence shows uranium stocks performed very well as long as investors held until the mania phase occurs, making current weakness a valid entry for those who believe the thesis.
“there is I guess two ways of doing it you can either try to invest in the physical uranium through sput or something like it or you can invest in the stocks now historically the stocks have done really really well as long as and this is a big fat asteris I add here as long as you hold them until the Mania pH that's what a lot of people don't understand the only thing that really matters is your entry point and your exit point and how long that took and then you can compare that yearly with whatever indicator you want to compare it with and then you can say yeah this was a really good uh investment or speculation over time”
Energy Fuels' sale of uranium to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (now Strategic Uranium Reserve) at profitable terms, and its ongoing relationship with the US government from that transaction, provides optionality for future government purchases and demonstrates political tailwind support
“they've already sold uranium to the US government at quite a nice profit um into the Strategic uranium Reserve now that was a onetime deal but they now have a relationship with the US governments where they've done a transaction so as we move forward and see more and more support um on the political side from both parties for Uranium I I think that we're going to see a revaluation of Energy Fuels to the upside”
Major oil companies re-entering the uranium sector through acquisitions would be extremely bullish for uranium valuations, though such re-entry remains within the realm of possibility rather than imminent
“I I hope and what I would like to see is an oil company come back into the sector come back into the space and uh I think that would be extremely bullish um and and I think that's still in the real of possibilities”
UEEC (Sprott ownership) is always expensive relative to comparable producers because marketing and narrative around the Sprott brand drives investor demand independent of fundamental valuations.
“UE is always expensive and anything air 90 touches is always expensive and I have just accepted that and that's my answer uh the marketing behind that group is stronger than what I can figure out from supply and demand basis or from a value basis”
Money flows in mining follow a predictable path during bull markets: capital flows from large-cap names (Cicos, Kazadel, Proms) down through mid-cap (NextGen) to smaller explorers, making NextGen a beneficiary of this cascade regardless of internal capital allocation.
“when you look at you know money flows it goes from the cicos of this world into the nextg of this world and then to the little ones and that's inevitable it's just how it works there are a lot of people out with a lot of money who are going to trade the price action and not whether you know the CEO um is doing something with the money”
Mega Uranium is one of the safer uranium investment vehicles but receives minimal investor attention because it lacks the excitement of exploration upside or the drama of distressed turnarounds.
“nobody's going to say mega uranium nobody cares about Mega uranium although it's probably like one of the safest ways that you can play uranium uh but nobody really cares about the stuff in the middle”
NextGen management is partially a victim of its own success because discovering the largest undeveloped uranium deposit has given the company so much credibility that it can get away with poor capital allocation decisions that would be punished in companies without such assets.
“I think the management team is partially a victim of its own success of their own success right because they discovered something that's so precious and so valuable and they they've held on to it for so long that that um they can get away with almost everything”
Most investors miss that the uranium sector fundamentals have never been better and continue to improve quarterly, with every quarter bringing new demand drivers and supply constraints that strengthen the bull thesis.
“I think what most investors Miss and if I'm not careful you know I would fall into this category as as well like I'm not some super you know illuminated investor that never makes a mistakes far from it but I think what people are missing is just like Terry has mentioned the story itself has never been better and I can't wait I I can't believe I'm still saying this probably two years into saying the same thing again but I never thought that it would get this good and it's getting better so every month every quarter I come back and I look at the faces as a whole and see wow you know look at all of these points that are you know pulling us forward in the demand side and all of the issues believe it or not that are happening happening on the supply side things have never been better with any other commodity that I have ever seen”
Successful integration of Paladin and Fishing's Athabasca operations with NextGen's adjacent projects requires workable management relationships and cooperative infrastructure development, which is the critical variable determining value creation.
“I think the big question with the this acquisition is can they work well with the next gen guys that is almost the only thing that matters obviously second to can they raise the money to to to build everything out uh because the infrastructure capex that is going to be needed in order you know to build out their Flagship is going to really benefit both companies and so if the Paladin management team is somewhat friendly with next then I guess that is the bridge that we need to have you know that part of the Basin fully developed”
Denison Metals serves as the gold standard for capital discipline in uranium companies: they time uranium purchases at low prices (around $30/lb, pre-Sprott) and time sales strategically, demonstrating shareholder-aligned capital allocation.
“just look at Dennis and what they've done you know with the timing of their purchases and the timing of their sales as well like that has been the the goto role model of this is what you do with your limited cash and as you I guess honor your commitment to your shareholders”
U Mir Uranium maintains very low general and administrative (G&A) expenses and has a capable management team, contrasting sharply with NextGen's spending model and making it structurally better positioned for returns.
“U Mir uranium they have a a team that has very low GNA and they are sitting on a project that is expanding I am a shareholder and I know the management team”
The only true disqualifiers for uranium sector investments are structure-breaking events like another COVID-scale pandemic, not normal geopolitical or commodity cycle volatility, meaning investors should buy on pullbacks unless something truly catastrophic occurs
“so if there's a disconnect and the story is getting better in any commodity not just in uranium I'd say yeah usually bar you know any bar just something re very very strange happening like another covid or something like that then I would say yeah a buy an opportunity for sure”
Fabby does not own NextGen and does not plan to own NextGen because poor capital discipline combined with mania-phase valuation expansion creates a poor risk-adjusted return for her despite the asset quality.
“I don't agree with it I don't own it I've never actually owned xgen believe it or not and the more that I see coming out of you know the management team from a financial perspective the Le the less I want to own it”
Lobo Tipton, a noted uranium investor, sold all his Global Atomic shares immediately after the Niger coup occurred, indicating that extreme jurisdictional risk is a dealbreaker for some investors even with strong project fundamentals.
“I spoke to Lobo T and he actually sold his Global Atomic as soon as the coup first happened he said that's that's enough for me I'm not interested in that level of jurisdictional risk we have no idea how this situation is going to develop”
NextGen Power's controversial uranium purchases at high prices with unfavorable shareholder terms were justified by management as securing supply certainty for future utility contracts rather than as a speculative commodity play, a rationale that is debatable among investors.
“the latest was their purchase of uranium at what many figured was far too high a price with terms that were not favorable to shareholders um their reasoning was that they weren't buying uranium as an investment to sell at a higher price in the future they were buying it to provide some certainty to utilities they were going to make contracts with”
Swapping exposure from Energy Fuels (which has begun uranium production) to Global Atomic (which faces Niger geopolitical risk) represents a deterioration in risk-adjusted portfolio positioning because you're trading realized production and certainty for jurisdiction risk.
“I found it interesting that some some investors I'm I'm a global Atomic investor I didn't buy and I didn't sell I'm I'm of the don't just do something stand there Camp um for the most part when it comes to investing but there was a lot of people on Twitter talking about like one guy was like I sold all my Energy Fuels and I bought Global Atomic when this latest drop happened I'm thinking Energy Fuels just started production of uranium and now there's been a massive amount of jurisdictional risk added to Global Atomic I don't get what's happening here”
U Mir Uranium has a market cap of $7.3 million despite having pounds of uranium in the ground (not a prediscovery play) and significant historical exploration spending (over $70 million in today's dollars) across Wyoming projects, representing extreme value.
“U Mir uranium they have a a team that has very low GNA and they are sitting on a project that is expanding I am a shareholder and I know the management team and also I'm on the board of a company that has optioned you know their Flagship uh project or that has optioned the flag our Flagship uh to them and so it's like a co-joined uh combination at the at this moment but you know I'm just checking today's price here and it's still sitting at you know $7.3 million market cap that's usually um you know a a common market cap for a prediscovery play and they have pounds in the ground we know that for a fact I think over $70 million in today's dollars has has been spent on uh some of their projects”
Lee Courey (NextGen's CEO) justified the race car sponsorship as a way to attract a new base of shareholders, but this justification is implausible because consumers seeing a logo on a race car are unlikely to research the company and become shareholders.
“and Lee Courier said that was to attract a new base of shareholders I don't know how many people see nextg on a race car and then open their trading app and and buy it so I don't know if I buy that either”
U Mir Uranium can leverage historical geological data from past exploration (archived in boxes for decades) combined with modern exploration techniques to identify higher-grade uranium areas and expand the resource at minimal cost.
“the weirdest story is the weirdest story because it's literally information that was sitting in you know a box in somebody's basement that they were holding on to that was able to be negotiated for a very decent price if I say so myself uh in order to figure out all the work that has been done over the decades regarding you know those projects and now they're finding even more with more current uh exploration tools and so you're looking at Wyoming”
Energy Fuels has been Fabby's most frustrating investment: a forever hold with years of ownership, likely correct fundamentally but mispriced due to the market categorizing it as non-pure uranium despite producing uranium.
“Energy Fuels just as a quick comment is my most frustrating position it's my forever hold I've had it for years I don't even remember when I bought it uh but it's exactly what you guys said uh if you look at it as a company it's great and probably undervalued uh but people don't buy into them as a strong uranium play because they they kind of didn't want I don't think they wanted to be boxed in as a uranium play for some time now and so the market you moved accordingly”
Goviex (GOX) has had its share price destroyed significantly by the Niger situation, creating value for investors who can stomach the volatility and navigate the challenges, if the company emerges as a winner.
“GOC who can stomach the volatility and if they can navigate through these challenges and come out on the other side of this uh you know uh a winner I think that there's there's the share price has been destroyed fairly uh significantly so I think there's value there”
NextGen's uranium purchases were poorly timed compared to other producers who bought when uranium was around $30/lb before SRUUF existed and before SRUUF began large-scale purchases that pushed uranium prices higher
“all most all the other companies did it when the price of uranium was around $30 a pound uh they did it before uh spit came into existence when it was still uranium participation Corp and and and they did before you know it was announced that spra was buying uh uranium participation Corp you know that's when they did it and then before split started buying uranium and and pushing the price of uranium up so the timing is bad”
The Imara uranium project had a long development history (permit approved pre-Fukushima around 2012, repeatedly delayed post-Fukushima, and never came online), suggesting the permit revocation may reflect government frustration with project delays rather than purely geopolitical motivations.
“I think it was 2012 before Fukushima they had made the decision to go ahead with it and then after Fukushima they stepped back obviously and they kept pushing the date you know forward and forward and then it just never panned out”
Goviex is disproportionately at risk from Niger's permit revocation because it obtained government approval only recently after struggling for years to get green light, and the timing coincided with a coup that immediately created political uncertainty, preventing project financing despite improved project economics.
“they struggled a lot to get the green light from an economics perspective and then the moment that the economics made sense for the project that's when the coup happened so the timing could have had not been any worse for gox unfortunately”
Vanadium byproduct upside from Energy Fuels operations could generate additional profits if vanadium prices spike again (as they have historically), providing optionality for shareholders.
“they have vadium stock piles absolutely yes by product so if and a vadium if the price uh like we saw spike in the price of vadium a few years ago if the price spikes again and that that can be another source of revenue for them”
Energy Fuels has a rare earth element business that produces additional revenue, but the market undervalues it because investors are focused on uranium as the primary thesis, creating a hidden source of upside.
“they also have the Rare Earth element uh component to it which to me I think that's what's kind of dragging the stock down because people don't seem to understand that it's going to be a second source of Revenue and uh you know I just don't get why people uh don't understand the story but I I think that they've got real upside potential in both uranium and rare Earths when you look at other companies that are in The Rare Earth space uh that you know may not produce at all do they have valuations that are higher than than what Energy Fuels valuation is”
Terry Papino used to own NextGen but no longer holds it, citing the nonsensical business rationale for logos on hockey helmets and race cars when the product is uranium (not a consumer item).
“I used to own NextGen I don't own it anymore and yes you know they can get away with it because they've got that asset but it's a head scratcher I mean you know why why do companies advertise put their logos on you know on hockey helmets or or race cars and and that kind of thing is so that the general public can see and you know they have a product that maybe they like Red Bull for example you know you see the red bull logo you want to buy Red Bull well it's not like people are going out and buy uranium”
NextGen has incurred unusually high general and administrative (G&A) expenses and pursued marketing activities (hockey team sponsorship, race car sponsorship) that lack clear return on investment for a pre-production company, raising questions about management's fiduciary responsibility to shareholders.
“they've recently received some flak for obviously what many consider to be outof control GNA expenses they've sponsored a hockey team I think they sponsored Canucks in some extent to some extent they sponsored a race car driving team um you know putting the nextg logo on the car”
On an X (Twitter) poll asking investors about their largest uranium value plays, responses clustered into two categories: exploration companies with high risk but high upside potential, and heavily beaten-down names (Global Atomic, Goviex) trading at distressed valuations.
“I believe that from memory uh a lot of the answers there uh regarding you know the the the question that I posted on on Twitter on X uh is uh there there two kind of clusters one is exploration companies that are very very risky haven't really found anything of value yet but have a good following and then companies that are completely beat down like the old you know Global Atomic and and gox and and things like that”
Terrence Papino is a 100% invested uranium sector investor and noted uranium industry expert
“notable uranium investor who is 100% invested in the sector Terry papino”
The Vancouver Resource Investment Conference annually convenes panels of expert uranium and mining investors to discuss sector thesis, specific company dynamics, and valuation, providing an information-aggregation function for the mining investment community
“my name is Jesse day we are bringing the VC to you each and every week with our series of expert online panels and it's been a while since we talked about uranium”