How do elites pave the way for social decay? | Peter Turchin x Brain Bar
What this covers
One of Brain Bar 2023’s most thought-provoking talks was Oxford complexity scientist Peter Turchin’s. When Peter looks at history, he sees not significant dates, great heroes, or memorable events but trends, repetitions, and mathematical rationale.
What causes civilizations to fall apart? How can education, high-collar jobs, and wealth be a bad thing for societies? In his talk, Peter sheds light on the clear rules of world history, and how the relationship between the ruling elites and the masses has fueled unrest and wars throughout the past 5000 years.
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Societies follow predictable cycles of integrative periods and crisis periods driven by elite overproduction; while end times are inevitable structural features, they are not deterministic, and institutional development has made crises less destructive and recovery faster, offering hope through collective action.
- Elite overproduction creates intense competition for fixed power positions, leading to rule-breaking and violence as frustrated aspirants become counter-elites
- Wealth pump dynamics concentrate resources to wealthy people and create immiserated masses, both fueling elite overproduction and popular discontent
- Institutional accumulation over millennia has reduced crisis severity and acceleration recovery, as demonstrated by successful cases like the New Deal and Chartist period
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Elites are sociologically defined as the small proportion of the population (approximately 1-2-3%) that concentrates social power in their hands; this social power comes in four basic forms: coercive/military power, economic power, administrative/political power, and ideological/persuasive power.
“here we use a a neutral uh sociological definition essentially these are not the better people or Worse people or whatever it's the small proportion of the population that concentrates Social Power in their hands Social Power is ability to influence other people's behavior and it comes in four basic flavors first of all you can force people to do it so this is the military or coercive power you can pay people to do what you want this is economic power you can order them by virtue of being the boss that's the administrative or political power and the softest but extremely powerful power is ideological you can persuade dissuasion you can persuade people to do what you would like them to do”
Elite overproduction—a situation where too many people vie for a fixed number of power positions—is one of the most important forces driving societies into periods of political instability and crisis, as demonstrated by historical cases like the Russian Revolution, French Revolution, English Civil War, and the Thirty Years' War.
“one of the most important forces is what we call Elite over production essentially it's a situation when there are too many Elite wab too many people vying for a fixed number of power positions and when this competition begins to become very intense societies get into these end times and what are those end times just to give you quick examples well think about the Russian Revolution the French Revolution the English Civil War of the 17th century or the 30 years war”
Historical research on approximately 200 past societies ranging across the world and millennia shows that crises have become less steep, less destructive, and the periods for reconstitution of society and start of new integrative periods happen faster, reflecting cumulative institutional evolution where humanity collectively learns from destructive examples and builds layers of institutions.
“we have collected data of about on about 200 past societies ranging over the you know over the world and over the Millennia and so what we see is that also there is a tendency for the crisis is to become less steep less destructive and also the periods for the next reconstitution of the society and the new uh uh and the start of a new good integrative period happens faster so this is clearly the result of accumulation of Institutions as a result of evolution the humanity seems to learn collectively from this uh terrible uh examples and uh we we have now layers of Institutions”
Over the last 5,000 years, state-organized complex societies have exhibited predictable cyclical patterns where periods of integrative stability lasting roughly a century (sometimes longer or shorter) inevitably end and societies enter periods of social unrest, political fragmentation, and sometimes extreme violence or collapse.
“by studying hundreds of past societies uh we we determined that they can go for a period of time working reasonably functionally keeping internal order peace and order these times May last roughly Century sometimes longer sometimes shorter but at least so far at least in the past inevitably the good times this integrative periods as we call them ended and societies entered the periods of of social unrest political fragmentation and sometimes quite extreme violence”
Frustrated elites who fail to secure power positions turn to rule-breaking and violence, becoming counter-elites; historical examples include Lenin and the Bolsheviks, Castro and the Barbudos, and present-day American dissidents trying to take over the Republican Party.
“the frustrated Elites who don't get their positions they turn start breaking rules turn to violence we call them counter Elites who are those counter Elites well think about Lenin and the Bolsheviks Castro and um the barbudos uh think about dissident in present day America who are taking over the Republican Party All right”
At the beginning of integrative (stable) periods in societies, the fruits of economic growth are divided fairly between workers and elites; in the United States this held true from the New Deal until the 1970s, when median wages and GDP per capita grew together with worker productivity.
“in the beginning of this during at the beginning of this good periods right the integrative phases as you call them the societies are typically inbalance so the fruits of the economy or in our societies we have economic growth so the fruits of economic growth are divided fairly between the workers and and their bosses so for example in the United States from the new deal until 1970s if you were to plot the median the typical wage and the GDP per capita they would grow together until late 1970s you may have seen this famous graph of uh of prod American worker productivity which keeps going up and the compensation which goes up together with productivity until 1970s and then just stops growing”
The 'iron law of oligarchy' explains why integrative periods end: people in power use their power to reconfigure society in their own favor, creating a wealth pump that transfers wealth from poor to rich, leading to increased inequality that characterizes pre-crisis periods such as the United States over the past 50 years.
“why does it happen technical term is the iron law of oligarchy but um essentially it's because uh the because people in power they can do it right they have power and they they use this power to to reconfigure the society uh in their own favor all right so that's uh that's essentially why this Breaking Point occurs and when they do that they create this perverse wealth pump which takes wealth from the poor it gives it to the rich and that's why you see uh typically uh the inequality increase to uh during the periods before crisis as we see in United States for example over the past uh 50 years”
Competition for power positions among elites is beneficial in moderation as it allows 'better ones' to rise, but when competition becomes too intense—when there are significantly more elite aspirants than available positions—it becomes corrosive to institutions and social norms, as competitors break rules to compete.
“there's always more Elite aspirants people who want uh who want to get into Power positions and some competition is good because it allows the better ones to take the positions but if there competition begins to be too high too much of it too much competition is actually corrosive”
Once a society reaches crisis conditions, a branching point emerges with multiple possible outcomes: some societies experience outright collapse with >50% or even 90% population loss and complete political fragmentation; others see elites slaughtered in civil wars and persecutions; yet others see elites cooperate with populations to implement reforms and resolve crises without bloodshed, as in the US Progressive era, New Deal, and British Chartist period.
“but once you get to the crisis it's a CP and whole bunch of different Avenues opens up and this is why uh there there is a lot of U uh variability sometimes you see outright collapse where more than half of population is gone or sometimes 90% of population uh is gone um you know complete political fragmentation uh the elites are uh slaughtered u in uh Civil Wars and prescriptions and and things like that but other there other cases where you see the elites pull together and cooperate with the population and get the right set of reforms and policies and resolve situation without um without Bloodshed this has happened actually um in the United States as a result of progressive year a new deal this happened in the in Great Britain during the chartis period and we have several such it's not a very common outcome”
Globalism and neoliberalism are linked: neoliberal ideology prescribes that markets should decide and governments should not intervene, and requires opening markets globally; this globalist agenda has been particularly lucrative for US ruling elites and later spread to Europe, though it faces backlash from populist movements, particularly right-wing populists who are anti-globalist and America-first oriented.
“in the United States the ruling Elites now they have a globalist agenda because it is incredibly lucrative for them in Europe we see this happen later also the spread of U neoliberal ideology you can basically trace it that it has really started in the United States and uh and then spread to Europe so in Denmark you know for example which used to be very Social Democratic country we now see the elites are being swayed by this seductive ideology because it's so self-serving right and uh uh globalism is part of that um neoliberalism because for example you the market uh the market should decide oh no the governments should not be part of the equation and also you should open uh the markets globally so this is part of the globalist agenda but in the United States there is a big backlash against it so um so some of the dissidents now trying to take over over the Republican party they definitely very much anti- globalists there are much more America firsters”
Inequality growth patterns are not synchronized globally but tend to cluster and vary by region: the United States saw inequality rise starting around 1980, Germany saw it rise about 20 years later (~2000), while China is currently in its integrative period having emerged from the 'century of humiliation' much later than Europe experienced its Age of Revolutions.
“if we use again um um inequality uh growth of inequality as the proxy what we see United States was the first this is where the inequality started growing around 1980 in Germany it was about 20 years uh later all right whereas China is um in the counterphase China had a really horrible Century of emulation they emerged from it much later than the age of revolutions here in Europe and so China is currently is in its integrative uh period all right”
Democratic institutions genuinely work, and while living in a democratic society does not provide immunity to elite overproduction and crisis, it gives a better chance of avoiding the worst outcomes.
“the obvious for example the Democratic institutions they are they really do work I mean it's not pania doesn't it doesn't mean that you know if you live in Democratic Society you're immune for this but it means that you have a better chance of avoiding the worst”
Crises tend to recur every couple hundred years; if societies fail to flatten the curve this time, the next cycle will offer another opportunity, suggesting systemic resilience despite individual failure.
“if if you don't do it this time around I'm pretty I feel sure that next time uh in this U crisis tend to recur every couple hundred years right the next time around I think that we will actually be able to flatten the curve and avoid the crisis”
After the wealth pump began operating in the late 1970s in the United States, the number of millionaires, decamillionaires (those with 10+ million dollars), and billionaires exploded, with decamillionaires increasing by a factor of 10, resulting in seven times as many decamillionaires per capita today compared to 45 years ago.
“once the wealth pum got going in the late 1970s it started churning out uh wealthy people like CM millionaires decamillionaires people who have 10 million um or more of wealth 100 million or more wealth and billionaires the numbers of billionaires exploded all right in fact uh the numbers of let's say 10 people de millionaires they increased by a factor of 10 all right so uh we have now we have seven times as many decamillionaires per capita because population has also grown we have seven times as many decamillionaires per capita today compared to 45 years ago”
The United States is overproducing law degrees by a factor of 3 to 1—three times as many law school graduates as available positions—and AI will further reduce legal positions by half, approaching a 6 to 1 overproduction ratio; lawyers are particularly dangerous counter-elites because they are ambitious, well-networked, well-organized, heavily indebted, as exemplified by Lenin, Castro, Robert Speer, Gandhi, and Lincoln.
“we are over producing let's say law degrees by a factor of 3 to one there are three times as many graduates from law schools compared to the positions that they have and by the way AI is going to take half of those positions away so very soon you'll have six to1 ratio but that's another story all right so and lawyers why am I privileged in lawyers because it turns out that this is one of the most dangerous um uh counter Elites so Leen was a lawyer CRA was a lawyer Rober Speer was a lawyer uh Gandhi was a lawyer although he was using less violent uh means and um lincol was a lawyer so lawyers are first of all um especially that's uh in the United States since I know that situation very from inside out they are um very ambitious uh they're well networked well organized and they are heavily indebted because that's how you get through Loco this is the recipe for creating counter Elites”
There is no historical inevitability in whether societies avoid or experience bloody revolutions and civil wars; research is ongoing into how past societies successfully avoided these outcomes, with the implication that current societies have agency and capacity to choose paths away from violence.
“there is not no inevitability and we are studying actually how do past societies who avoided uh bloody revolutions and Civil Wars how did they do it all right and this is very much work in progress and also the institutions that we have accumulated over the past thousands of years they are actually um working if imperfectly and that to me is gives um uh some optimism in our ability to overcome this uh problems”
The book Turchin has written discusses end times as simultaneously periods of crisis and periods of new beginnings, conveying an optimistic perspective that difficult times can be survived if people collectively pull together to transition into better periods.
“the topic I would be talking about is uh depressing all right but end times and which I just uh explain at Great length in this book it's also the times of new beginnings so uh my I'm an optimist uh By Nature and that's what I would like to convey to you here today is that perhaps um we have some difficult times ahead of us but we can survive them if we collectively pull together and we can get uh into better times after surviving this period”
Many newly wealthy people want to transfer their wealth into political power, with Donald Trump as a prominent example, and this is one of the major routes by which societies create elite overproduction.
“when we start over producing wealthy people they many of them want to transfer to uh transform their wealth into political power so Donald Trump is of course a good one example of that but there are many like uh many other people so this is one of the major routes why you create elit or production which has worked over the last 5,000 years you have many more um aspirant for those political positions because of the wealth pump”
The wealth pump has three bad consequences: (1) it creates popular immiseration—declining standards of living that create discontent and mobilize the population against the social order; (2) less obviously, it creates more wealthy people and billionaires, increasing elite overproduction; and (3) it creates pressure on the immiserated masses to escape their condition through education.
“that uh has three bad consequences first of all it's uh creates what we call popular IM miseration right very simply the declining standards of living that creates a lot of discontent and that means that population can be mobilized uh against the social order which majority of them perceives as unjust because they see that they're doing worse their parents than their parents that's the obvious thing but less um obvious thing and let's now talk about societies that I studied such as United States the less obvious thing is that this wealth pump starts creating more and more wealthy people and this was in fact in the United States once the wealth pum got going in the late 1970s it started churning out uh wealthy people like CM millionaires decamillionaires people who have 10 million um or more of wealth 100 million or more wealth and billionaires the numbers of billionaires exploded all right... the third thing is even more subtle because um the wealth pump is taking away from the majority of population giving it to the rich that means that you create a lot of pressure for people in that immiserated masses to escape it and how do you do it well today everybody tells you go to college or university then you then okay then tell you get Masters PhD uh low degree whatever”
Technologies like digital currencies and AI can be used for good or bad; the responsibility lies in collective action to ensure these technologies advance broad-based well-being rather than narrow interests of top groups.
“I'm not against progress right and digital Technologies uh like any technology can be used for good or bad and so it's essentially our job to make sure that we we use this technology to advance uh broad-based well-being rather than uh narrow interests of very uh you know um top groups”
The speaker does not have a very good answer to the question of whether anti-globalist populists in America are unwittingly following global rules while claiming to be anti-globalist.
“but uh so for example even if it looks that the populists in America are doing something against globalists but it looks like they are also following some Global rules for example pushing into the digital age this is one of of them and you can feel that there are some people who can create such a conflict like oh I'm I'm anti-globalist but you are doing exactly what they want without knowing well um my thinking is this I don't have a very good answer to this”