How Thomas Friedman and Yuval Noah Harari Think About The Future of Humanity
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Two of the greatest thought leaders of the 21st century– Yuval Noah Harari and Thomas L. Friedman – discuss the Future of Humanity on March 19, 2018, with moderator Rachel Dry, The New York Times. “How To Understand Our Times” is an event series collaboration between The New York Times and how to: Academy bringing together New York Times journalists and leading figures in diverse fields to examine pressing issues in a changing world, including gender equality, artificial intelligence, and alternatives to fossil fuels, among others. For upcoming events, visit timesevents.nytimes.com.
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Harari and Friedman argue that humanity faces three existential challenges—nuclear war, climate change, and technological disruption—requiring urgent moral and institutional adaptation, while also identifying pockets of community-level innovation and resilience that offer grounds for cautious optimism despite unprecedented uncertainty about the future.
- Three global problems (nuclear war, climate change, technological disruption) can only be solved at a global level, yet political systems remain locked in 20th-century frameworks and cannot produce meaningful long-term visions
- Algorithms that understand individuals better than they understand themselves threaten liberal democracy unless governed by sustainable values and the golden rule
- Communities creating 'complex adaptive coalitions' that combine entrepreneurship with safety nets demonstrate viable models for resilience in the age of acceleration, though these remain pockets rather than systemic solutions
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Once biotech and infotech merge to create algorithms that understand individuals better than they understand themselves, liberal democracy as known for the last century will be doomed—it will have to adapt to new conditions and reinvent itself in a radical form or collapse, because the Achilles heel of liberal democracy is trust in human feelings, which fails if external algorithms can understand and manipulate emotions better than individuals or their closest relations.
“they might very soon reach the point when they create systems they create algorithms that understand us better than we understand ourselves and once you have an external algorithm that understands you better than you understand yourself liberal democracy as we have known it for the last century or so is doomed it will have to adapt to the new conditions it will have to reinvent itself in a radical new form or it will collapse because you can say that the Achilles heel of liberal democracy is the heart liberal democracy trusts in the feelings of human beings”
Algorithms that assess individuals based on accurate data (e.g., determining someone's self-motivation is 7.1 on a 0-10 scale when the company needs 8.2) will enable 'individual discrimination'—discrimination based on true assessments rather than biased statistics—which is worse than traditional group discrimination because it is accurate and individuals cannot organize against it.
“in the coming years in the coming decades we will face individual discrimination and it might actually be based on a good assessment of who you are I mean if 88 NT if the algorithms and the big data algorithms of AT&T they follow you around they look up your Facebook profile your DNA your records from kindergarten until today they will be able to figure out quite accurately who you are and if they for example find out that I lack motivation on the on the X scale on the Harare scale of the Freedmen's scale of motif of of self-motivation 0 to 10 he is just 7.1 and we don't want to accept to our company people of less than 8.2 and we know from experience that yes we can give you a little push but you just lack what we need and you will not be able to do anything or almost anything about this discrimination”
History does not unfold in ways that are purely good or purely bad; terrible and wonderful things happen simultaneously, often as components of the same developments, and the historical record is biased toward optimism because the dead cannot tell their stories.
“history just doesn't unfold in such a way usually you have terrible things and wonderful things happening at the same time maybe in different places but happening at the same time usually the same revolution the same development it's very rare when you have a big revolution in history which is doing only good or which is doing only bad and of course you have the added problem that those who lose who lose the most and those who get extinct and those who disappear they are not there to tell their story so in history there is always a certain a certain bias towards the optimistic side”
In an interdependent world, your friends can kill you faster than your enemies (illustrated by Greek and Italian banks threatening the room if they collapse), and your rivals falling is more dangerous than your rivals rising (if China loses 6% growth, it threatens the global economy more than if China gains territory).
“in an interdependent world you get a kind of geopolitical invert inversion where you're first of all your friends your friends start to be able to kill you faster than your enemies um you have Greek and Italian banks go under tonight this room is half-full a Greece Italy wait a min NATO there in the EU in an interdependent world they can kill us and an interdependent world your rivals falling is actually more dangerous than your rivals rising so if China take six more islands in the South China Sea tonight don't quote me on this couldn't care less um if China loses 6% growth tonight this room is empty”
The country 'looks so much better from the bottom up than the top down,' with national governments too slow for the pace of change and government moving at the pace of trust (which is low in polarized systems), so healthy communities are the proper governing unit of the 21st century.
“the country looks so much better from the bottom up than the top down okay so I think that as we go into this age of acceleration national governments with a few exceptions are really too slow certainly the big democracies are because we're too tribal eyes partisan eyes now they they can't move at the pace of change because government moves at the pace of trust and there's no trust the single individual single family way too weak against these forces so I think it's the healthy community that is going to be the proper of governing unit of the 21st century”
Political parties worldwide are 'basically dead' because they were built on an industrial-age model with capitalism versus labor or big government versus small government as the central axis, and this left-right axis is no longer relevant to current political problems.
“one of the things you really see is that political parties all over the world here in the UK in the United States they're blowing up some are in power so they think they're alive but they're all basically dead and that's because they in my view they were all warned of an industrial age model that the central theme was capitalism versus labor or big government versus small government”
Automation revolution of the 21st century might create a 'useless class' just as the Industrial Revolution of the 19th century created the urban working class, and much of the political and social history of the coming decades might revolve around the problems, hopes, and fears of this new class.
“so one scary scenario is that it will lead to the emergence to the rise of a global useless class just as the Industrial Revolution of the 19th century created the urban working class so the automation revolution of the 21st century might create the useless class and much of the political and social history of the coming decades might revolve around the problems and the hopes and the fears of this new class”
Trust is 'the only legal performance-enhancing drug': where trust exists (like local communities and Minneapolis with 2.5% unemployment), systems can move at the speed of trust to implement needed changes, but where trust is absent (like Washington DC), systems are paralyzed.
“my my teacher Duff Seidman always says you know Trust is the only legal performance-enhancing drug okay so where there's trust in the room you can go really fast you can go at the speed of visits and when there's no trust like in Washington DC right now you can't move two inches”
History doesn't show determinism or a predetermined winner—the future is radically open, with both good and bad outcomes possible, depending on choices humans make, which is frightening because no one can claim inevitability or destiny.
“I think history is just not deterministic and again when you look to the past when you look at the 20th century and what people could do with new technologies and you could build you can use the trains and radio to build Nazi Germany or you could use the same technology to build liberal democracy...there is no predetermined or preordained winner...there is no predetermined story which is in a way very frightening”
Democracy is fundamentally based on Lincoln's maxim that you can fool some people all the time and all people some of the time, but not all people all the time—but this assumes a free press; if government controls media, it can fool all people for a very long time and eliminate the possibility of reckoning.
“democracy is to some extent based on Lincoln's maxim that you can fool some people some of the time all the time and you can fool all the people some of the time but not all the people all the time...this is really just wishful thinking you can fool people...you can fool all the people for a very very long time and the the way to do it is to control the information they get...if the government controls in some way or the other directly or indirectly if it controls the media if it controls journalism then it can always blame somebody else”
LaShonda Lewis, an African-American woman, attended Michigan Tech for 3.5 years studying computer science, dropped out for family reasons, and worked as a school bus driver and helpdesk worker; Opportunity at Work's algorithm assessed her actual knowledge, matched her with MasterCard as a systems engineer, and she became a senior systems engineer at MasterCard without completing her BA, demonstrating how algorithmic matching can enable careers without traditional credentials.
“I profiled a young african-american woman LaShonda Lewis she went to Michigan Tech for three and a half years studied computer science had to drop out for family reasons she went back home was driving a school bus to and from a computer school couldn't make that up and working at a law firm on the helpdesk helping lawyers rediscover their lost passwords okay she was discovered by opportunity at work they partnered with MasterCard slotted her in as a stay measured her knowledge slotted her in as a systems engineer at MasterCard she's now a senior systems engineer at MasterCard and as she says in the last line of her interview and mr. Friedman I still don't have a BA”
Qualcomm's janitorial staff were transformed into 'IoT technologists' by deploying sensors on doors, windows, lights, pipes, and drains in their buildings, beaming data to iPads with user-friendly interfaces that alert janitors to problems and solutions, enabling them to diagnose and fix issues themselves, increasing their dignity and capability.
“they three years ago they took six of their buildings they put sensors on everything every door window light pipe faucet drain computer and they beamed all that data up to the cloud and now they beam it down onto an iPad with this incredibly user-friendly interface for their janitorial staff so if you leave your computer on or a pipe bursts above my head the janitor knows it before you or I do and they just swipe down to see who to call or how to fix it themselves they've actually turned their janitors into it's technologists”
College Board partnered with Khan Academy to create free PSAT and SAT prep that uses intelligent algorithms to identify each student's specific weaknesses (e.g., 'fractions and right angles'), direct them only to relevant practice, predict readiness for AP-level courses, and match them to 180+ available college scholarships, providing 3 million American students free, personalized test preparation.
“three years ago the College Board that administers the PSAT and SAT exam your a-levels and o-levels partnered with Khan Academy the online learning platform to create free PSAT and SAT prep so the way it works now is I take my PSAT and 11th grade I get the results back...it says I Tom Friedman personally because it knows me have a problem with fractions and right angles then it takes me to a practice site just for fractions and right angles doesn't waste any time on my weaknesses...last year 3 million American kids got free PSAT and SAT prep on this intelligent algorithm”
Louisville has become the capital of bourbon tourism (like Napa Valley for wine), headquarters of UPS (creating massive end-of-runway manufacturing for Amazon 24-hour delivery), and headquarters of Humana (creating citizen science projects mapping neighborhood air quality), demonstrating how diverse assets can be leveraged into resilient economies.
“Louisville happens to be the capital of Bourbon tourism so Louisville is de Bourbon what Napa Valley is - red wine...Louisville happens to be the headquarters of ups so you fly into Louisville Airport all you see are factories everywhere because when Jeff Bezos of Amazon com says you've all get to that product in 24 hours...Louisville is a headquarters of Humana wellness company so the mayor's equipped any young person in the town who wants with a web neighbor cloud connected breathalyzer and kids got in the morning trying to create citizen scientists”
Healthy communities and strong families are where the Golden Rule originates; these are also the primary institutions capable of transmitting values and building the social trust necessary for governance and resilience.
“where does the golden rule come from I think two places primarily strong families and healthy communities and that's why my focus and my work today is so much on healthy communities”
Many people born and raised to 'do what they were told' will struggle because just following instructions no longer brings average income and an average lifestyle—continuous adaptation and self-directed learning are now required for economic security, causing widespread stress.
“a lot of people were actually born and bred to do what they were told and God bless and they built your country in mind and you Falls but just doing what you're told now will not bring you average income and an average lifestyle and I think that has a lot of people really frightened”
A free press plays an essential role by enabling individuals to expose wrongdoing (e.g., photographing factory waste pollution) and amplifying it globally, where institutional reputation damage (GE stopping the waste dumping after New York Times publication) creates accountability that individual citizens cannot achieve alone.
“what's the upside of this age of acceleration is now an individual can go take a picture of that waste dumping by that factory put it up on the internet and it'll go around the world in in 30 minutes...if I take a picture of General Electric doing that and put it up on the New York Times a General Electric will stop doing that I can assure you that will not compete with cat videos”
Whatever can be done will be done; the only question in business is whether it will be done by you or to you, and every company can now analyze, optimize, prophesize (predict), socialize, customize, and digitize/automate virtually any job, product, or service using big data and AI.
“whatever can be done will be done the only question in business is will it be done by you or to you but just don't think it won't be done so I'm going to ask you what can be done and when you look at AI and some of the themes that you've all talked about I think every company they can therefore must analyze optimize sighs customize socialize and digitize / autumn Atty virtually any job product or service”
AT&T has implemented a 'lifelong learner' employment model where: leadership sets transparent yearly skill requirements; managers are matched via LinkedIn to required skills; employees receive up to $8,000/year for training in missing skill areas via partner platforms like Udacity and Georgia Tech; and the company flushes out 30,000 and hires 30,000 annually while advancing 10,000, with the social contract requiring lifelong learning for job security.
“they begin their year now where their leader Randall Stephenson he starts the year with a pretty radically transparent speech about where the companies going what businesses they're gonna be in and what skills you need as a worker at 80 that year filters down through the company then they put all their managers a hundred ten thousand people on their own in-house LinkedIn system...then they match that up with the skill sets...they've got my CV they're on LinkedIn and they realize I've got seven of the ten but I'm missing three then they partnered with Sebastian Thrun from Udacity...he created nanodegrees for all ten skill sets...um we will give you up to eight thousand dollars a year to take the Nano degrees for the skill sets you're missing”
China may be the only place in the world where there is serious work on producing a meaningful vision for the future at 20-30 year timescales, with government thinking in long-term and decadal rather than electoral or century-length terms, regardless of whether that vision is good or bad.
“maybe the only place in the world where there is serious work on producing a meaningful vision for the future is in China whether it's a good vision or a bad vision it's a different question but this is the one place I think where the government is seriously thinking in future terms and in long terms of decades and not in terms of one or two years”
Most governments today are doing a better job running day-to-day business than ever before in history (compared to medieval governance), but they have almost completely lost the ability to have long-term plans for the future because they cannot see realistic visions of job markets, family structures, or other fundamentals 30 years out.
“politics and government in most of the world today they are doing a far better job than ever before in running the day-to-day business of the of the country...but what they have almost lost completely is the ability to have a long term plan for the future because they can't see they have no realistic vision of against base things like the job market in 30 years”
Austin, Indiana (4,400 people) suffered economic collapse when two factories closed/automated, leading to massive unemployment in white working-class population, driving drug use (5% of town now HIV-positive with intergenerational drug use: son, father, grandfather all using), illustrating how job loss cascades into health crises.
“I went to excite read about the town 4400 people and a 5% of the town is HIV positive which is just the worst possible levels of epidemic you can imagine what was the story two factories in the town one closed the other got automated a lot of white working-class men and women got unemployed very quickly um the they couldn't adapt and I fell into drug use and you had son father grandfather all shooting up together”
From the perspective of a medievalist, Republicans and Democrats seem almost identical in their basic values, with their main difference being in understanding of cause-and-effect relations rather than ethical principles, suggesting the real divide is epistemological rather than moral.
“if I looked at politics in the u.s. again from the vantage point of a medievalist Republicans and Democrats seems almost identical I just don't understand what's the difference...they have a big difference in their understanding of cause-and-effect relations but when it comes down to two basic values I think the difference is is not big”
Trump voters are not a monolith; they came for different reasons (some because they felt humiliated by Clinton calling them 'deplorable,' some wanting to stop the pace of change), and they can be addressed through respect and listening rather than dismissal, which is the key to political engagement.
“I don't think there is an average Trump voter and I think that because I think people came to him for so many reasons some people came because they were humiliated Hillary Clinton said you're deplorable I'm deplorable that I'm gonna wear a t-shirt that says I'm a deplorable okay some came because things you've talked about you've all they want a wall to stop the pace of change some came for many reasons but my way of approaching them...if you start there how much you can peel peel back you know just listen to people”
America is not divided into two coasts (cosmopolitan) versus flyover America (Trump-supporting opioid users), but is actually a checkerboard of communities that are collapsing from the bottom down and communities that are rising from the bottom up, with the difference being leadership and adaptive capacity.
“America is actually a checkerboard today of communities that are collapsing from the bottom down and communities that are rising from the bottom up so I did a trip a year ago to um I was invited to give a talk at our national lab at Oak Ridge Tennessee”
Good journalism enables people to 'understand more so people will fear less,' which is critical because the current president is 'in the fear business' backed by 'Pravda-like' Fox News designed to 'make people stupid,' creating a dangerous feedback loop that good journalism must counter.
“good journalism I think that practice by the New York Times and many others has never been more important to understand more so people will fear less because we now have a president who is actually in the fear business backed up by a Pravda like Network called Fox television that's in the business of making people stupid”
Louisville, Kentucky (40 minutes south of Austin on I-70) has 30,000 open jobs, illustrating that the economic challenge is not job scarcity per se but mismatch between skills/location and available opportunities.
“I went there to interview the one doctor in the town then I got on my car and drove 40 minutes south on i-70 to Louisville Kentucky Louisville Kentucky has 30,000 open jobs anybody looking for a job Louisville Kentucky”
We are standing at a unique moral intersection in history: one person can now kill all of us (through nuclear weapons, bioweapons, or AI), while simultaneously all of us could fix everything (we have technological capacity to feed, house, clothe, and educate every person on the planet), making us simultaneously more godlike and more dependent than ever before.
“we're standing at a moral intersection we have never stood at before as a species in 1945 we entered the world where one country could kill all of us possi regime and that was the United States I'm glad it had to be one country but it was the United States I think we're entering a world where one person can kill all of us and at the same time at the same time where all of us could actually fix everything because these accelerated powers for the first time are creating world where one of us could kill all of us and all of us now if we actually put our minds to it we have the tools to feed house clothe and educate every person on the planet”
The three most important global problems that can only be solved on a global level are nuclear war, climate change, and technological disruption, with technological disruption being the most mysterious because even most experts cannot say what specific threats and dangers new technologies, especially AI and bioengineering, will create.
“the three most important of nuclear war climate change and technological disruption now the first two are quite familiar by now the third technological disruption is the most mysterious most people don't really understand what's coming even most experts cannot really say what kinds of threats what kind of dangers the new technologies especially AI artificial intelligence and bioengineering will create”
We are in the middle of three nonlinear accelerations with the three largest forces on the planet: the market (digital globalization), mother nature (climate change, biodiversity loss, population growth), and Moore's Law (exponential growth in computing power), and it is the interaction between them that is reshaping the world across five realms: politics, geopolitics, ethics, community, and workplace.
“we're in the middle three nonlinear accelerations with the three largest forces on the planet which I call the market mother nature and Moore's law...we're actually in the middle of three hockey stick accelerations all at the same time and I believe it's the interaction between them that really is not just changing our world it's it's reshaping our world and it's reshaping five realms in particular politics geopolitics ethics the community in the workplace”
Time is accelerating: the Agricultural Revolution took thousands of years for consequences to unfold, but now 'the long term is not 2,000 years or 200 years, the long term is 20 years,' and we have no idea what the job market, required skills, family structures, or gender relations will look like in 20-30 years, making it the first time in history we have no idea what to teach in schools.
“thousands of years ago something like the Agricultural Revolution takes centuries even thousands of years...but now time is accelerating so the long term is not 2,000 years or 200 years the long term is 20 years we are really in an unprecedented situation in history when nobody knows the basics about how the world would look like in 20 or 30 years”
The most important divide in the world will soon be the 'self-motivation divide' between whose children have the self-motivation to be lifelong learners versus those who don't, replacing the digital divide as the primary source of inequality.
“I believe that digital byte is rapidly disappearing...and when it is the most important divide in the world is going to be the self-motivation divide whose kids have the self-motivation to be a lifelong learner long after they've left home”
Communities that thrive during climate change are those creating 'complex adaptive coalitions'—formal coordination between business community, public schools, community colleges, 4-year universities, philanthropic sector, and government, translating real-time labor market demands into curriculum and training.
“which organisms thrive when the climate changes they call complex adaptive organisms what's happening at the community level the commutes that are rising they're creating complex adaptive coalition's and what you see in Louisville and I can show you communities all over the country these complex adaptive coalition's you have the business community you're not plugging directly into the public school system k12 community college four-year college translating in real-time their skills needs and demands”
When climate (environmental, geopolitical, or technological) changes, you need two things: resilience (ability to absorb disruption) and propulsion (ability to move forward), and Mother Nature demonstrates strategies for both through adaptability, entrepreneurship, pluralism, heterodox thinking, and creative destruction.
“I said well what do you want when the climate changes I think you want two things you want resilience maybe I'll take a blow because you get disruptive behavior when the climate changes but you also want propulsion you want to be able to move ahead you don't be curled up in a ball under your bed waiting for the climate change to pass so as I thought about that I said who do I go to to find how you get resilience and propulsion when the climate changes then I realize I knew this woman she was 3.8 billion years old her name was Mother Nature”
The central workplace challenge is turning artificial intelligence into 'intelligent assistance' (IA)—using AI to help more people learn faster and govern smarter through three mechanisms: intelligent assistance (humans with AI-enhanced tools), intelligent algorithms (systems that adapt to individual needs), and intelligent agents (systems that act on behalf of humans).
“our central challenge is how do we turn a I into ia how do we take artificial intelligence and turn it into intelligent assistance ance intelligent assistance a NTS and intelligent algorithms so more people can learn faster and govern smarter”
The problem today is not so much morality (people largely agree on values like 'don't steal') but causality—understanding the causal chains in a complex world so you can act according to your values, because stealing now operates through opaque supply chains where investors unknowingly fund environmental destruction through pension funds.
“I would say that maybe the big problem is not so much morality as it is causality that we just cause a little I mean the ability to understand the change of causes and effects in the world I think there is no lack of values today in the world but to really act well it's not enough to have good values you need to have a good understanding of the chains of causes and effects”
There may be no single future for all of humanity; different groups will have very different futures at the same time and place (e.g., children learning computer code and violin in some communities while learning to shoot Kalashnikovs in others), and the responsibility of historians and journalists is to give attention to multiple viewpoints rather than only dominant ones.
“maybe there is no single future for the whole of humankind maybe the basic understanding of the world is just that different groups are going to have very different futures maybe I mentioned earlier the question of what to teach your kids so if you live in one place and belong to a particular community or to a particular group so you teach your kids to be resilient and you teach your kids computer code and you teach your kids to play the violin and you live in another place maybe not very far away and the best thing to teach your kids is how to shoot a Kalashnikov and it's happening on the same on the same planet at the same time”
Current political frameworks in developed democracies are asymmetrically organized: left-wing parties advocate strong safety nets but rarely support radical entrepreneurship and disruption; right-wing parties support radical entrepreneurship but rarely support strong safety nets; mother nature's successful ecosystems require both simultaneously, making this political split 'stupid'.
“unfortunately in our old industrial age model of politics if you're for stronger safety nets he almost never for radical entrepreneurship if your for radical entrepreneurship you're almost never for stronger safety nets what would mother nature call that stupid that's what she'd call it because she would understand you will never produce resilience unless you're a hybrid of these two”
God is not inherently in cyberspace because cyberspace is filled with pornography, gambling, cheating, lying, and fake news; however, God 'manifests himself' through how humans behave, so we must bring God to cyberspace through our actions—this reframes ethics as behavioral practice rather than external regulation.
“is God in cyberspace...if that's your view of God he sure isn't in cyberspace which is full of pornography gambling cheating lying people smearing one another and Twitter and now we know fake news...the post biblical view of God is that God manifests himself by how we behave so if we want God to be in cyberspace we have to bring him there by how we behave there”
All of humanity today constitutes a single civilization despite widespread conflicts, because while we have different ideologies and conflicts, all countries understand the fundamentals of politics, economics, and nature in the same way, and when implementing practical systems like hospitals, economies, or nuclear weapons, they use the same methods.
“all of humanity today constitutes a single civilization yes we have a lot of conflicts but every civilization every community every family has a lot of conflicts...when it comes time to build a hospital or an economy or a nuclear bomb they do it in the same way”
Trump's disruptive effect on discourse is comparable to a 'brain-eating disease' because his outrageous statements demand coverage (normalizing him if ignored), but extensive coverage consumes journalistic capacity and public attention, so columnists risk wasting their entire output writing only about Trump rather than other essential issues.
“I described Trump as a brain-eating disease because as a columnist you're always in this position everyday where he says or does something so outrageous you feel if you don't write about it you're normalizing him but if you do write about it he stoled your brains for a day now if you do that twice a week four times or eight times a month you'll wake up after a year and discover all you've written about is that knucklehead”
In the 1990s, there was a story of 'the end of history' (liberal democracy and capitalism inevitable victors); this was naive and we have now collapsed into 'disillusionment and bewilderment' because there is no predetermined narrative of historical inevitability—history is contingent and competitive between possible futures.
“in the 1990s in the same era of the extremely optimistic vision of the internet we also had this story this idea that history is over that we know who won the great ideological battle of the 20th century liberal democracy and in free-market capitalism came out on out on top and now it seems extremely naive and the moment we are at now is a moment of extreme disillusionment and bewilderment because we have no idea where things will will go from here”
Journalists must be good listeners because listening is both epistemically valuable (you learn what's happening) and ethically important (listening signals respect), and this respect-through-listening approach enables communication that blame and disagreement prevent.
“the most important thing you need is a journalist today is that you have to be a good listener and for two reasons and the second reason is more important than the first the first is what you learn when you listen you know but the second reason is what you say when you listen listening is a sign of respect”
In an age of acceleration, naiveté is the new realism because thinking we will be okay in a highly interdependent world where everyone is super-empowered without everyone being in the embrace of the Golden Rule is what is truly naive.
“I think in this age of acceleration naivete is the new realism because what's really naive is thinking we're gonna be okay in a world that is this interdependent we're men women and machines get this super empowered if everyone is not in the embrace of the golden rule”
Small navigation errors have huge consequences at high speeds: when traveling 5 miles per hour (slow change), a bad leader gets you off track with tolerable correction costs, but at 5,000+ miles per hour (fast change), a bad leader's small navigational errors (changing two digits in flight navigation) can send you halfway across the world in the wrong direction.
“when the world is fast small errors in navigation can have huge consequences when we just needed to go fifty miles at five miles an hour well if you had a bad president or prime minister for governor or mayor you'd get off track but the pain of getting back on track was fairly tolerable but when you need to feel like you're going fifty thousand miles at five thousand miles an hour when you have a bad leader now you can get so far off track it's like a 747 pilot just changing two digits as he enters the navigation of his jet and suddenly you're halfway across the world in the wrong direction”
Friedman plans to change his business card from 'New York Times Foreign Affairs Columnist' to 'New York Times Humiliation and Dignity Correspondent' because his career has focused on covering people acting out on their humiliation (Middle East, Russia, China) and seeking dignity recognition.
“I want to change it to Thomas L Friedman New York Times humiliation and dignity correspondent because I basically spent my whole career covering people acting out on their humiliation whether it's in the Middle East you know we all know the stories they're Russians feeling committable Chinese you know and questing for for dignity”
At a U.S. Air Force base in Qatar during Trump's Charlottesville press conference, Friedman observed that the Air Force's leadership team included diverse members (Jewish head of Air Force, woman Secretary, African American female lieutenant colonel as CEO, Armenian American base commander, Lebanese American deputy, Yang as intelligence briefer), demonstrating America's core strength is the ability to 'make out of many one' and unite diverse peoples.
“I looked around at my traveling party the head of the US Air Force Dave goal find his Jewish we are traveling with the Air Force US Air Force secretary she's a woman Heather Wilson her chief executive officer is an African American woman Air Force lieutenant colonel there guards name was one the head of the air base and it was in Armenian American his deputy was a lebanese american and our intelligence briefers name was yang mr. trump which part of this sentence don't you understand okay that that is the real strength of America our ability to make out of many one”
Governments worldwide are increasingly repackaging nostalgic fantasies about the past instead of formulating meaningful visions for the future: Trump wants to return to the 1950s, Putin to the Tsarist Empire, ISIS to 7th-century Arabia, and Israel to the age of the Bible (making Israel 'win' by looking back furthest), but the past was not a good time and cannot come back regardless of effort.
“you have Donald Trump wanting to go back to the 1950s or something like that and you have put in basically wanting to go back to the Tsarist Empire a century after the Bolshevik Revolution and you have Isis that wants to go back to the seventh century Arabia and in my country in Israel they beat everybody they want to go back 2500 years to the age of the Bible so we win we have the Bell the longest term vision backwards”
Airbnb's 'Experiences' feature (monetizing passions through peer-to-peer activities like 'basketball tours in Havana with mojitos') is the fastest-growing part of Airbnb's platform, and Friedman predicts it will be the biggest job site in the world within five years, representing people monetizing their passions full-time or part-time.
“it's people monetizing their passions I will give you a tour of three man basketball games in Havana at night with a mojito at the end read that one the American mother who said I send my 18 year old on this he didn't come back till 2:00 in the morning he was having so much fun I'll teach you how to make falafel you know in job I'll teach you how to make it you know this is it full time employment maybe maybe not it's the fastest growing part of Airbnb is website and I predict in five years it'll be the biggest job site in the world people monetizing their passions”
We are living 51% of our lives in 'cyberspace'—defined as a realm where we are all connected and no one is in charge, with no courts, no police, no stoplights—through banking, brokerage, news, dating, shopping, and other functions that place us in a realm that is fundamentally 'God-free' without institutional oversight.
“we began living 51 scent of our lives in cyberspace it's not where you go to find a date find us out spouse buy a house buy a car write a book buy a book get a mortgage give alone get your news generate your news we're now living do your banking your brokerage we're now living 51% of our lives in cyberspace and my definition of cyberspace is that it's a realm where we're all connected and no one's in charge so there are no courts in cyberspace no lovely ceman no stoplights”
Friedman's job as a journalist is to 'translate from English to English'—taking complex things, breaking them down so he understands them, then explaining them to others—with the motto from Marie Curie that 'now is the time to understand more so we may fear less.'
“what I do for a living tell them I am a translator from English to English that's what I do I try to take complex things and break them down first so I can understand them and then hopefully explain them to others and I am really my motto I've adopted from Marie Curie who once said now is the time to understand more so we may fear less”
The title 'Thank You for Being Late' comes from Friedman realizing that when people are late, he eavesdrops on other conversations, people-watches, and makes unexpected connections—and he's adopting this as a metaphor for stopping, reflecting, rethinking, and reimagining in an accelerating world.
“thank you for being late comes from meeting people in Washington DC for breakfast over the years...an Energy entrepreneur Peter Carr cell came three enough minutes 15 minutes late and said I'm really sorry whether the traffic the subway the dog ate my homework and I just spontaneously said to him actually Peter thank you for being late because you were late I've been eavesdropping on their conversation fascinating I've been people watching the lobby fantastic and best of all best of all I just connected to ideas I've been struggling with for a month”
China's leaders wake up asking 'what world am I living in' and 'what are the biggest trends' and 'how do I align myself with those trends,' unlike many other world leaders, but Friedman also sees amazing leadership emerging in America at corporate and local levels rather than national government.
“I think China's leaders do wake up every day more than the average leader in the world and start the day by asking what world am i living in what are the biggest trends in this world and how do i align myself with those trends unlike I think a lot of leaders in the world but I would find I would tell you I'm seeing amazing leadership in America today in two places you've a one is at the corporate level and the other is at the local level”
Trump is a one-term problem America can withstand, but eight years would destroy institutions; underneath Trump's disruption is a 'really powerful idea of America and diversity' that even Trump cannot crush, and the opportunity is for America to return to its core identity.
“we can take four years of him we cannot take eight years of him he will destroy institutions in eight years but I know that underneath you know there's still a really powerful idea of America and diversity out there that I think even Donald Trump cannot crush and that's why I is it shared also by the average Trump voter”
Harari's next book '21 Lessons for the 21st Century' is an invitation to participate in major global debates (climate change, AI, bioengineering) because most people lack time and energy to engage, but history makes no concessions and the consequences fall regardless of participation—making the book an attempt to democratize access to global-level thinking.
“my next book is coming in August September it's called 21 lessons for the 21st century but it's not really a book of concrete lessons like do this go there whatever it's more an invitation to take part in the major debates and discussions of the world of the current moment...I think one of the problem problems that most people today face is that they just don't have the time and the energy to be part of the global debate...but history never makes any concessions and never gives any discounts just because you're in difficulty oh just because you're poor or just because you're too busy taking care of your kids if you don't have the time and the energy...it doesn't mean that you won't suffer from the consequences”
Digital globalization (everything being digitized and distributed globally) is replacing container-and-plane globalization; when graphed, digital globalization looks like a hockey stick showing exponential growth.
“the market for me is globalization but not your grandfather's globalization that was containers on ships and planes that's actually flat to going down right now but digital globalization so everything's being digitized and globalized put that on a graph whether it's measuring data consumed per month or cellphones it looks like a hockey stick”
Moore's Law, coined by Gordon Moore in 1965, has held for 53 years, stating that the speed and power of microchips doubles every 24 months (closer to 30 months now), and when graphed shows a giant hockey stick pattern of acceleration.
“Moore's Law coined by Gordon Moore in 1965 the co-founder of Intel argued that the speed and power of microchips will double every 24 months it's closer to 30 months now but never mind Moore's law has held up for 53 years put it on a graph it looks like a giant hockey stick”
Paint Nite (paint-by-numbers for adults in bars) was the fastest-growing restaurant chain in America in 2015 according to Entrepreneur Magazine, showing that entirely new job categories and revenue models are emerging that didn't exist a decade before.
“what was the fastest growing restaurant chain in America according to Entrepreneur Magazine in 2015 and you never guess it it's actually called paint nite fastest burn restaurant chain in America what is paint nite it's paint by numbers for adults and bars”