Japan Just Dealt Russia a DEVASTATING Blow!
What this covers
In this video, we explore Japan’s growing role in opposing Russia during the Ukraine conflict. Japan, once hesitant to engage directly in foreign conflicts, is now a key financial supporter of Ukraine, providing billions in aid. We’ll cover the latest blow Japan has dealt to Russia with a new investment treaty, examine its long-standing tensions over the Northern Territories, and question whether Japan may soon escalate its involvement by providing military aid. Watch to understand Japan’s evolving stance against Putin.
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Japan has shifted from decades of pacifism and passive diplomacy toward Russia to active support for Ukraine through massive financial aid and sanctions, driven by concern that Russian success in Ukraine would embolden China to attack Taiwan, while simultaneously losing its pro-Russia political allies and watching Russia militarize the Northern Territories.
- Japan moved from attempted diplomatic reconciliation with Russia (2010s) to top-five financial supporter of Ukraine ($22+ billion pledged) in response to Ukraine invasion
- Japanese strategic calculation: preventing Russian territorial conquest of Ukraine deters Chinese territorial ambitions toward Taiwan and validates Japan's own collective security arrangements
- Assassination of pro-Russia PM Shinzo Abe in 2022 removed key political obstacle to anti-Russia policy; aging out of pro-Putin politicians eliminated diplomatic bridge
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In February 2024, Japan and Ukraine negotiated a bilateral tax treaty that prevents double taxation of companies and individuals, removing a barrier for Japanese investors to pour money into Ukraine during the conflict.
“Japan's Prime Minister – Fumio Kishida – announced a bilateral tax treaty, in which both countries will codify a set of tax rules that prevent double taxation of companies and individuals.”
In his April 11, 2024 speech to the U.S. Congress, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that U.S. leadership on the global stage is 'indispensable' and said 'Ukraine of today may be East Asia of tomorrow,' warning that Indo-Pacific countries including Japan could face similar threats without American intervention.
“Kishida told Congress that U.S. leadership on the global stage is 'indispensable,' reinforcing Japan's commitment to what Putin would consider the Western global hegemony. Pointedly, Kishida also told those assembled: 'As I often say, Ukraine of today may be East Asia of tomorrow,' before further lauding the U.S. for the support it provides not just to Ukraine but the Indo-Pacific region.”
A March 2022 survey revealed that 77% of Japanese citizens believed that the international community needed to band together to stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with respondents worrying that territorial changes Russia enforced could pave the way for future attempts at change, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
“A survey conducted in March 2022 – a month after Russia invaded Ukraine – revealed that 77% of Japan's citizens believed that the international community needed to band together to stop the Russian invasion. If they didn't, the respondents worried, the territorial changes Russia enforced could pave the way for future attempts at change, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.”
Since 2015, Russia has been steadily increasing its military presence in the Northern Territories. Satellite imagery shows Putin has built infrastructure reaching as close as 14 miles away from Hokkaido, including barracks large enough for 7,000 people on Kunashiri island and storage of Bal anti-ship missiles (ASMs) on that same island, which lies just 10 miles from Japanese territory.
“Since 2015, Russia has been steadily increasing its military presence in the Northern Territories, with satellite imagery showing Putin has been building infrastructure that CSIS claims reaches as close as 14 miles away from Hokkaido. These developments include the building of barracks large enough to host a population of 7,000 on Kunashiri, along with the storage of Bal anti-ship missiles, or ASMs, on the island. That island's southernmost point lies just 10 miles away from Japanese territory.”
Fumio Kishida visited Kyiv in March 2023 as the first Japanese leader to visit an active conflict zone since World War II, a trip that coincided with Putin's summit in Moscow with China's President Xi Jinping, with both events serving as the drawing of lines in the sand between these four nations.
“His actions included visiting Kyiv in March 2023 – the first time a Japanese leader has visited an active conflict zone since World War II. Uncoincidentally, that visit to Kyiv happened around the same time that Putin held a summit in Moscow with China's President Xi Jinping, with the two events seeming to be the drawing of lines in the sand between the four nations.”
According to The Carnegie Endowment (October 2023), pro-Russia lobbies in Japan, composed of older politicians, were growing quieter since the 2010s when pro-Russia policies were at their peak. The assassination of Shinzo Abe in July 2022 was the trigger for this turnaround.
“Those lobbyists have been growing quieter since the 2010s, when pro-Russia policies in Japan were at their peak. The assassination of Shinzo Abe was the trigger for this turnaround.”
In the wake of World War II, the Soviet Union seized the Northern Territories (called Kurils by Russia), which are located 810 miles northeast of Hokkaido, Japan. This territorial dispute remains unresolved—Reuters notes that World War II hostilities between Japan and Russia have technically not ended due to differing stances on these islands.
“In the wake of World War II, the Soviet Union seized these islands, which are just 810 miles northeast of the northernmost Japanese island of Hokkaido. That seizure has been disputed ever since, with Reuters pointing out that World War II hostilities between Japan and Russia have still not ended due to their differing stances on these islands.”
Following World War II, Japan adopted a policy of pacifism and passivism in its foreign policy, purposefully avoiding direct military engagement in regional conflicts. According to Brookings Institution, this approach proved extremely lucrative for Japan economically and allowed it to weather various crises, revolutions, and wars in the Indo-Pacific and East Asia since WWII, coming out practically undamaged in all cases.
“Following World War II, Japan made the purposeful decision to focus on pacifism and passivism in its foreign policy... Brookings points out that this approach has been extremely lucrative for Japan... Plus, by taking a more passive role, Brookings claims, Japan has been able to weather the various crises, revolutions, and wars seen in the Indo-Pacific and East Asia since World War II, coming out practically undamaged in all cases.”
The increasing modernization and economic growth of China since 2000 is causing Japan to believe it is slowly losing its position as one of the chief powerbrokers in the Indo-Pacific as China's influence grows.
“The increasing modernization of China since 2000 is one such issue, with Japan likely believing that it's slowly losing its position as one of the chief powerbrokers in the Indo-Pacific as China's influence grows.”
The Nippon Ishin no Kai (a right-wing populist party in Japan) and its Upper House Secretary-General Naoki Inose sent 20 pickup trucks loaded with supplies to Ukraine in 2023, paid for using party member stipends, with Inose arguing that as long as the trucks aren't used to transport weapons, there's no problem with recipients using them for that purpose if they choose.
“Nippon Ishin no Kai – a right-wing populist party in Japan – showcases that appetite. In 2023, the party's Upper House Secretary-General, Naoki Inose, chose to send 20 pickup trucks, each loaded with canned food and other supplies, to Ukraine. He paid for this using a portion of his party member's stipends while delivering a message about the delivery: 'As long as these pickup trucks aren't used to transport machine guns, there should be no problem. It's up to the receiver if they use them in that way. As long as we ourselves do not offer the trucks with that intention, we are fine.'”
Japan agreed to sell $19 million worth of Patriot missiles to the United States in July 2024, supposedly to help the U.S. replenish its numbers after providing hundreds of these missiles to Ukraine. There are no conditions on how the U.S. uses these missile systems, making it likely that Patriot systems Japan provides will eventually find their way into Ukrainian hands, with the U.S. acting as intermediary.
“Japan had agreed to sell $19 million worth of Patriot missiles to the United States, supposedly to help the U.S. replenish its numbers after it had provided hundreds of these missiles to Ukraine. There are no conditions on how the U.S. uses these missile systems once they land in Washington. It's very possible – perhaps even likely – that the Patriot systems Japan is providing to the U.S. will eventually find their way into Ukrainian hands, with the U.S. essentially acting as an intermediary so Japan doesn't have to deliver the weapons directly.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin anticipated storming into Ukraine and taking the country in a matter of weeks, with the West not even having a chance to respond, but this did not happen.
“Russia anticipated storming in and taking the country in a matter of weeks, with the West not even having a chance to respond. That didn't happen.”
The Gulf War of 1991 marked a turning point in Japan's foreign policy evolution, when Japan contributed $13 billion to support coalition forces but refused to dedicate its own military forces. This 'checkbook diplomacy' was criticized internationally, prompting Japan to reconsider its approach to international cooperation.
“According to CSIS, this change is actually the result of an evolution that began during the Gulf War in 1991. At that time, Japan heavily relied upon the Middle East for its oil imports, though it also contributed $13 billion to support the coalition forces fighting in the Gulf. At the time, Japan's actions were criticized as 'checkbook diplomacy,' with many wondering why the country refused to dedicate any of its own forces to support the coalition soldiers.”
Muneo Suzuki was the first foreign politician Putin received after becoming Russia's president and served as an unofficial advisor on Russia's policies under Abe, but is now working under a cloud of internal suspicion due to his imprisonment for corruption in the 2000s, with every effort to visit Russia since February 2022 blocked by his own party.
“Another pro-Putin influence in Japanese politics – Muneo Suzuki – was the first foreign politician Putin received after he became Russia's president. Suzuki even served as an unofficial advisor in Russia's policies under Abe, showcasing just how strong his ties with Russia became. But Suzuki is now working under a cloud of internal suspicion. His imprisonment for corruption in the 2000s hasn't helped, with every effort he's made to visit Russia since February 2022 being blocked by his own party.”
Japan has entered into a trilateral defense agreement with the U.S. and South Korea, and is strengthening ties with NATO, India, and Australia, signaling a shift in foreign policy away from passivity.
“Add Japan's inclusion in a trilateral defense agreement with the U.S. and South Korea into the mix – in addition to strengthening its ties to NATO, India, and Australia – and you have a country that's shifting its foreign policy. Passivity couldn't work in the current global landscape.”
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Russia appeared to be on the verge of handing back the Northern Territories to Japan during the early 2010s. During this period, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pursued diplomatic talks, joint tourism projects, and Japanese investment in Russian economic development to create sufficient goodwill for an agreement, but Russia squandered this opportunity.
“Russia appeared to be on the verge of handing the Northern Territories back to Japan during the early 2010s. That possibility actually had an impact on Japan's foreign policy, claims CSIS, as former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spent much of his tenure working to improve relations between Japan and Russia to create enough goodwill to enable an agreement to be reached. Diplomatic talks, joint tourism projects, and even Japanese investment in local Russian economic development all stemmed from this approach. But Russia essentially took all of that goodwill and tossed it aside.”
The Bretton Woods system required currencies to peg themselves to the U.S. dollar, and this institutional arrangement contributed to Japan's extended periods of economic success during the post-WWII era.
“The institution of the Bretton Woods system – which required currencies to peg themselves to the U.S. dollar – led to extended periods of economic success.”
Japan's cabinet approved the country's largest-ever defense package, with the country investing $55.9 billion into its military in 2024, increasing annually to reach a peak of $62.5 billion in 2027.
“Japan's cabinet approving a request for the country's largest-ever defense package. That package will see Japan invest $55.9 billion into its military in 2024, with the number increasing annually until it reaches a peak of $62.5 billion in 2027.”
Putin signed a mutual defense pact with North Korea in June 2024, which Japan views as another sign of aggression alongside Russia's militarization of the Northern Territories and its alliance with China. North Korea represents another major threat to Japan in the Indo-Pacific and a threat to Japan's South Korean allies.
“Signing a mutual defense pact with North Korea in June 2024 was essentially Putin putting an end to any chances of rebuilding that relationship. To Japan, that pact will be little more than another sign of aggression to go along with Russia's actions in the Northern Territories and its allegiance with China. After all, North Korea represents another major threat to Japan in the Indo-Pacific, as well as a threat to Japan's South Korean allies.”
At the time of April 2023, talks were being arranged to discuss the possibility of amending Japan's guidelines to allow Japan to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons, but those talks did not lead to a change.
“At the time, talks were being arranged to discuss the possibility of making further amendments to those guidelines, which would allow Japan to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons. Those talks didn't lead to a change.”
Japan was one of the first countries to coordinate with the U.S. and other G7 members to implement punitive sanctions against Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, including asset freezes, restrictions on SWIFT payment access, and restrictions on import and export of controlled items.
“Japan was one of the first to coordinate with the U.S. and other members of the Group of Seven, or G7, nations – a collective of the world's seven strongest economic powers – to implement punitive sanctions. These initial sanctions included asset freezes, restrictions on Swift payment access, and restrictions on the import and export of various controlled items.”
In June 2024, Putin claimed that current conditions between Russia and Japan are not conducive to peace treaty negotiations, and blamed Japan for the breakdown, stating 'Everything that has been done has been done by Japan,' while seemingly ignoring that Japan's decisions are informed by his actions and the invasion of Ukraine.
“'Everything that has been done has been done by Japan,' Putin claimed, seemingly ignorant – likely purposefully – of the fact that Japan's decisions are being informed by his actions and his 'special military operation.'”
Fumio Kishida was the president of the G7 in 2023 and used that position to ensure that global attention remained focused on Russia's actions in Ukraine, according to CSIS.
“Fumio Kishida was the president of the G7 in 2023, a position he used to ensure that global attention remained on Russia's actions in Ukraine, according to CSIS.”
Atsuko Higashino, a professor at the University of Tsukuba studying the Ukraine war, argues in favor of Japan delivering Patriot missiles to Ukraine but believes such deliveries are unlikely in the near future because Japan still has a 'serious deficit' in its defense systems.
“One of those people is Atsuko Higashino, who is a professor at the University of Tsukuba studying the Ukraine war. She comes out in favor of Japan delivering Patriot missiles to Ukraine, though she also believes such deliveries are unlikely in the near future because Japan still has a 'serious deficit' when it comes to its defense systems.”
Kishida's invitation of Zelensky to meet Asian nation representatives represented a blow to Putin, as Putin saw his rival (Ukraine) engaging in diplomatic conversations with countries he would like to curry favor with.
“It was another blow to Putin, as he saw his current rival engaging in diplomatic conversations with countries he would like to curry favor with.”
If Japan chooses to start sending weapons to Ukraine, it would be a body blow to Putin followed by a 'haymaker' signaling Japan's intent to truly oppose Russia not just in Ukraine but also in efforts to expand influence in the Indo-Pacific and militarize the Northern Territories.
“If nothing else, the $12 billion it pledged in February 2024 will be a serious blow to Putin, both in terms of increased support being lent to Ukraine and the further collapse of Russia's relationship with Japan. Should Japan choose to start sending weapons, that blow will be followed up with a haymaker signaling Japan's intent to truly oppose Russia. And not just in Ukraine, but also in its efforts to expand its influence in the Indo-Pacific, as well as its work to militarize the Northern Territories.”
Japan's relationship with Russia has been characterized by tension for decades, and although recent tensions over Ukraine are significant, they alone would not explain Japan's shift from attempted diplomacy to full-blown support for Ukraine without considering additional factors.
“Japan's relationship with Russia has always featured a certain amount of tension, even during the periods when Japan was trying to extend the diplomatic olive branch. Nevertheless, these issues alone wouldn't be enough to explain Japan's slow moving away from attempted diplomacy to full-blown support for Ukraine. There are other factors at play.”
Putin claimed he will not shy away from visiting the islands that make up the Northern Territories, essentially telling Japan he is willing to reinforce their status as Russian islands and instigate further conflict.
“Putin went even further, claiming that he will not shy away from visiting the islands that make up the Northern Territories, essentially telling Japan that he is happy to instigate by reinforcing their status as Russian islands.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is in crisis mode after approximately two and a half years of fighting, with his military unable to take Ukraine despite territorial gains being met with fiercer Ukrainian responses.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin is in crisis mode. After approximately two and a half years of fighting, his military still hasn't been able to take Ukraine. In fact, for every territorial gain comes an even fiercer Ukrainian response.”
Hundreds of billions of dollars in military aid have been sent to Ukraine by Western nations, with commitments being made for many billions more.
“Hundreds of billions of dollars in military aid have been sent to Ukraine, with commitments being made for many billions more.”