YouTube14m· Sep 2024· cataloged

US Missile System 'Scares China' | China’s Surging Nationalism Bad For Business | Pakistan Base


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00:00 Introduction 00:27 South China Sea: Philippines Missile System 03:23 Japan-China: Stabbing Incident 10:11 China's Pakistan Base

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Sharpest takeaway

Tony argues that China is experiencing a critical realignment of its geopolitical and economic relationships with Japan, the Philippines, and Pakistan due to rising nationalism, military assertiveness, and strategic port expansion ambitions, while simultaneously facing economic deterioration and capital flight from foreign investors.

  • Japanese nationals and businesses are departing China at accelerating rates due to anti-Japan sentiment and violence targeting Japanese citizens, with Japanese investment declining to lowest levels since 2015
  • The U.S. is permanently deploying advanced missile systems to the Philippines near the Taiwan Strait despite Chinese demands, signaling a military commitment to containment
  • Pakistan may have granted China military base access at Gwadar, transforming China's ability to project power into the Indian Ocean and Middle East while undermining U.S. containment strategy

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0.79

The U.S. Typhoon mid-range missile system deployed to the Philippines during joint exercises earlier this year remains stationed there despite Chinese demands for withdrawal and despite the exercises having ended, with U.S. officials having no immediate plans to withdraw it.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Tony

the US's typhoon mid-range missile system is still in the Philippines a development which appears to have angered or perhaps frightened Beijing officials

0.74

The International Atomic Energy Agency approved Japan's Fukushima water releases and noted that the radioactive content was similar to or less than what other countries with nuclear power plants discharge.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 4/4· Tony

the releases were approved by the international atomic energy agency which noted that the radioactive content was similar to or less than what other countries with nuclear power plants discharge

0.73

A 10-year-old Japanese child with a Japanese father and Chinese mother was stabbed to death in Shenzhen by a middle-aged Chinese man while walking to Japanese school, marking the second such incident of Japanese school children being targeted in recent months.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Tony

yesterday we covered the tragic death of a 10-year-old Japanese child stabbed by middle-aged Chinese man while walking to his Japanese school in the South Chinese Mega city of shinen as the second such incident of Japanese school children being targeted in recent months

0.73

Japanese schools in China emerged as targets of anti-Japan sentiment following Beijing's accusation in 2023 that Tokyo was treating the Pacific as a sewer by releasing Fukushima water, after which rocks and eggs were thrown at Japanese schools in two Chinese cities, and Beijing said Japan's actions had caused these incidents.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Tony

Japanese schools in China emerged as a target of anti- jaapan sentiment last year after Beijing accused Tokyo of treating the Pacific as a sewer by releasing water from the Fukushima diii nuclear power plant into the sea

0.71

Florian Schneider, chief professor of modern China at Leiden University, argues that China's authorities have normalized nationalism as the correct way to understand the world, and while what citizens do with that understanding is not up to any individual leader, it can backfire spectacularly.

factualhigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Tony

Florian Schneider Chief professor of modern China at Leen University expressed in a piece this week that quote China's authorities have certainly normalized nationalism as the correct way to understand the world what citizens then do with that understanding is not up to any individual leader and it can backfire sometimes spectacularly so end quote

0.71

The roots of violence against Japanese nationals in China are likely much deeper than current nationalist rhetoric, tying to broader social and economic anxieties, as evidenced by China's property slump wiping 18 trillion USD in household wealth, triggering pay cuts and layoffs, and the nation wrestling with its longest deflation period in decades, while the stock market has seen close to 6 trillion USD in wealth wiped out.

causalhigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Tony

the roots are likely much deeper tying with broader social and economic anxieties end quote indeed as we have recently discussed China's property slump has wiped some 18 trillion US dollar in wealth from households according to a Barclay's report and triggered pay cuts and layoffs as the nation wrestles with its longest period of deflation in decades the stock market has seen close to6 trillion Us doar in wealth wiped out as well this has hit households especially hard

0.69

China's defense ministry spokesperson Jiang Xiang and other officials have denounced the Typhoon deployment multiple times, including characterizing it in May as bringing 'huge risks of War' to the region and describing it in July as 'a strategic offensive weapon reminiscent of the Cold War' that should never be deployed.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Tony

China has denounced the deployment of the typhoon several times including in May when Ian spokesperson for China's defense Ministry Sid Manila and Washington had brought quote huge risks of War into the region in quote

0.69

A 2020 U.S. Naval War College report highlighted that Beijing's long-standing ambitions for Gwadar would transform China's ability to project military force beyond its own region and free it from dependence on maritime energy shipping routes in Southeast Asia, while simultaneously undermining Washington's containment strategy against Beijing.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Tony

beijing's Ambitions for guar have long concerned Washington guar lies at the mouth of the strategically vital straight of homos on the shore of the Arabian Sea a military base there would transform China's ability to project Force Beyond its own region and free it from the dependence on Maritime energy shipping routes in Southeast Asia while undermining Washington's strategy of containment against Beijing a 2020 report by the US Naval War College highlighted the risk of China turning gu into a strategic strong point

0.69

The 2020 U.S. Naval War College report stated that the ability to develop Gwadar into a full-blown strategic hub hinged largely on future decisions by Pakistan's leaders to increase their political commitment to China and allow it to be militarized, and that if China-India and China-U.S. relations continue to deteriorate rapidly, China may determine a confrontational posture is inevitable and overt militarization might look appealing despite harsh countermeasures.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Tony

the naval war College report also contained an important caveat the ability to develop guad into a full-blown strategic Hub hinged largely on future decisions by Pakistan's leaders to increase their political commitment to China and allow it to be militarized if China India and China us relations continue to deteriorate rapidly China May well determine that a confrontational posture is inevitable the report said in this case overt militarization of China's Presence at guar perhaps in response to a terrorist incident or a threat in the straight of homos might look appealing even if it provoked harsh countermeasures the report added

0.69

In 2022 the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee published a report noting that Chinese ships had already begun utilizing the Gwadar port and highlighting the implications for the U.S. of a full-blown future Chinese military presence there, stating that a military base in Gwadar would allow China to maintain a permanent Arabian Sea presence, expand naval attack submarine and refueling capabilities.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Tony

in 2022 the US House of Foreign Affairs committee published a report on Chinese influence in South Asia it noted that Chinese ships had already begun utilizing the port in guad and highlighted the implications for the US of a full-blown future Chinese military presence there a military base in guad would allow China to maintain a permanent presence in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman expanding the naval footprint of its attack submarine and refueling capabilities the report said

0.69

The 2020 U.S. Naval War College report noted that Chinese investment in Gwadar to date was strategic rather than commercial in nature and did not depend primarily on commercial returns, indicating long-term military objectives rather than profit motives.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Tony

the report noted that Chinese investment in guad to date does not depend primarily on Commercial returns and was strategic in nature

0.69

A U.S. Institute of Peace report from 2023 noted that political barriers to establishing a Chinese military base at Gwadar were surmountable and diminishing over time, and that Gwadar would provide massive strategic benefits to the Chinese Navy in the event of a major war, including the ability to launch retail blockades against U.S. shipping and energy interests in the Middle East.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Tony

the US Institute of Peace report from 2023 also noted that the political barriers to establishing a base there for China were surmountable and diminishing over time it also noted the massive strategic benefits to the Chinese Navy of having a presence at guar in the event of a major war including the ability to launch retell blockades against us shipping and energy interests in the Middle East

0.68

The Japanese Chamber of Commerce stated it takes the stabbing incident extremely seriously, and a professor at Kanda University of International Studies noted that decreasing investments in China will be further affected by the incident, as will Japanese tourism.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Tony

in response to the latest deadly attack the Japanese Chamber of Commerce issued a statement on Wednesday saying it takes the incident extremely seriously Ki Ichiro a professor at Kanda University of international studies says investments in China which are already decreasing will be affected by the incident he also says it will impact Japanese tourism

0.68

Robert Ward, director of geopolitics and strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, stated that 'we are now past Japan's peak economic engagement with China.'

factualhigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Tony

Robert Ward director of geopolitics and strategy at The International Institute for strategic studies expressed on the findings quote we are now P Japan's Peak economic engagement with China end quote

0.68

Beijing is justified in being concerned about the Typhoon system because even during the 1991 Gulf War when the U.S. had complete air dominance and the most advanced surveillance technology, it proved extremely difficult to find and destroy truck-mounted Scud missiles, and the challenge for the PLA would be orders of magnitude harder given the need to locate missiles in jungles and island terrain while facing contested airspace and maritime space.

causalhigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Tony

Beijing is right to be concerned as Matt Turpin a visiting fellow at the Hoover institution specializing in US policy towards the people Republic of China expressed in a piece this week quote during the 1991 Gulf War the United States had Complete Air dominance over Iraq and the most advanced surveillance technology at the time and it still proved extremely difficult to find and destroy Iraq's truck mounted scud missiles driving around the open desert and the scud looked distinctive not like one in several 100 million shipping containers now imagine the pla's challenge today they would need to find trucks in the jungles of the islands of the Western Pacific as well as distinguish additional teels from millions of 40ft shipping containers while simultaneously facing a contested airspace and contested Maritime space for their surveillance and weapon systems in order to effectively find and Target the typhoon battery end quote

0.66

Days before the Shenzhen stabbing attack, a video surfaced on Tencent's WeChat platform showing the city's Japanese school and calling on local police to expel it from China, with similar scripts on Chinese video streaming sites suggesting Japanese schools breed spies and characterizing them as 'the new colonies' invoking Japan's occupation of China following the 1931 invasion.

factualhigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 2/4· Tony

days before Wednesday's attack in shenjun a video surfaced on 10 cents WeChat platform showing the city's Japanese school and calling on the local police to expel it from China quote a similar script can be found in many Clips on Chinese video streaming sites suggesting that Japanese schools in China breed spies and often calling the schools the new colonies a description intended to invoke Japan's occupation of China in the Years following the 1931 Invasion end quote

0.64

The Typhoon missile system can be equipped with cruise missiles capable of striking Chinese targets and is deployed on Luzon island facing the South China Sea and close to the Taiwan Strait.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 0/4durability 4/4· Tony

The typhoon system which can be equipped with with cruise missiles capable of striking Chinese targets was bought in for joint exercises earlier this year but they have remained there

0.64

There were around 31,000 Japanese companies in China last year according to Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, down by about 10% from 2020, and over the same period some 4,000 firms set up offices elsewhere in the world.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Tony

there were around 31,000 Japanese companies in China last year according to Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs down by about 10th from 2020 over the same period some 4,000 firms set up officers elsewhere in the world

0.64

According to Dropsite News' analysis of the leaked documents, there is no evidence that concrete steps have yet been taken to move forward with militarization of Gwadar, though such a move would likely poison Pakistan's future ties with the U.S. while antagonizing many Pakistanis who would object to perceived sacrifice of the country's sovereignty.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Tony

the information reviewed by dropsite does not indicate whether concrete steps have yet been taken to move forward with the militarization of guidad a move that would likely poison Pakistan's future ties with the us while antagonizing many inside Pakistan who would object to a perceived sacrifice of the country's sovereignty

0.64

China took less than 18% of Japan's exports last year, the lowest level since 2015, with values slipping almost 7% compared with double-digit growth to the U.S. and European Union, and the U.S. overtook China as Japan's largest export market for the first time in four years.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Tony

China took less than 18% of Japan's exports last year the lowest level since 2015 with values slipping almost 7% compared with double digit growth to the US and European Union as a result the US overtook China as Japan's largest export market for the first time in four years

0.61

The number of Japanese residents in China reached a two-decade low in 2022 and peaked in 2012, with the biggest drop occurring in 2013 due to nationwide anti-Japanese protests over the Senkaku Islands, and the number of Japanese in China has continued to shrink since then.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Tony

the number of Japanese Nationals living in China reached a two decade low in 2022 as relations between the two Nations faced multiple headwinds the number of Japanese residents in China peaked in 2012 with the biggest drop in 2013 because of a nationwide anti-japanese protest in China over the Saku Islands known in Chinese as the diu since then the number of Japanese in China has continued to shrink with decreasing Japanese investment

0.61

According to Dropsite News' leaked documents, Pakistani officials have become increasingly frantic in their efforts to repair relations with China by granting China approval for a military base at Gwadar (a major and long-standing strategic demand of Beijing) and authorizing joint military operations inside Pakistan.

factualhigh valuefringenovelty 3/4durability 2/4· Tony

quote Pakistani officials have become increasingly frantic in their efforts to repair relations with China including as the documents reveal by granting China approval for a military base at the Port of guar a major and long-standing strategic demand of Beijing and authorizing joint military operations inside Pakistan end quote

0.61

Dropsite News, a Substack publication started by journalists from the Intercept, published a report claiming that Pakistan has offered China a military base at Gwadar, citing highly confidential internal strategic assessments, reports, and diplomatic cables from 2023-2024 provided by sources within the Pakistani security establishment.

factualhigh valuefringenovelty 3/4durability 2/4· Tony

substack publication dropsite news an outlet started recently by journalists from us-based the intercept this week published a report claiming that Pakistan has offered China a military base at guar if accurate this would be a big deal the report says that they have viewed a quote collection of Highly confidential internal strategic assessments reports and diplomatic cables produced between 2023 and 2024 which were provided to drop sight by sources within the Pakistani security establishment and backed up by interviews with sources with direct knowledge of the government's Internal Affairs end quote

0.57

Approximately 102,000 Japanese people were living in mainland China as of 2023 and there are 11 full-time Japanese schools in the country, while over 821,000 Chinese nationals live in Japan making them the largest group of immigrants in the country, and the number of Japanese in China is declining.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 0/4durability 2/4· Tony

about 102,000 Japanese people were living in mainland China as of 2023 and there are 11 full-time Japanese schools in the country according to Japan meanwhile there are over 821 th000 Chinese Nationals living in Japan making them the largest group of immigrants in the country and the number of Japanese in China is declining

0.56

Almost half of all Japanese firms in China, surveyed by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, reported they will not spend more or will cut investment this year, citing rising wages, falling prices, and geopolitical tensions.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Tony

almost half of all Japanese firms in China pulled recently by The International Institute for strategic studies which is based in London said they will not spend more or will cut investment this year citing Rising wages falling prices and geopolitical tensions

0.56

The U.S. State Department stated that the U.S. does not ask Pakistan or any country to choose between the United States and the People's Republic of China, and that it could not comment on reported classified documents or comments by unnamed sources regarding the alleged Gwadar military base agreement.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Tony

The PLC and Pakistan have a long-standing relationship we do not ask Pakistan or or any country to choose between the United States and the PRC the US state department said in a statement provided after publication noting that it couldn't comment on reported classified documents or comments by unnamed sources

0.55

A Chinese lawyer living in Tokyo named Lee organized a vigil in Tokyo to mourn the boy killed in Shenzhen, and Lee stated that 'China wants more foreign investments and it continues to promote hatred that contradiction won't work anymore,' pointing to the contradiction between China's economic needs and its nationalist messaging.

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Tony

the jining a Chinese lawyer who lives in Tokyo joined a group of Chinese living in the city to organize a vigil to mourn the boy killed in shenen speaking to Media at the event Lee Express quote China wants more foreign investments and it continues to promote hatred that contradiction won't work anymore end quote

0.45

Professor of international relations Shi Yinhong at Renmin University in Beijing, an outspoken nationalist, characterized the Shenzhen stabbing as 'a very small and incidental event as far as the broader Sino-Japanese relationship is concerned' and said it 'reflects at the most the bad state of feelings held by Chinese and Japanese people towards each other.'

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Tony

professor of international relations and outspoken nationalist shiing Hong at reman University in Beijing wrote online that this murder quote is a very small and incidental event as far as the broader sonjapanese relationship is concerned it reflects at the most the bad state of feelings held by Chinese and Japanese people towards each other end quote