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George Friedman — The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
Join the Boston Public Library for an online talk with George Friedman, author of The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond. The moderator for this talk, which is part of the BPL's Repairing America Series, will be BPL President David Leonard.
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Friedman argues the United States operates as a self-correcting machine through recurring 50-year socioeconomic cycles and 80-year institutional cycles that create periods of crisis and transformation, enabling long-term progress despite appearing destructive in the moment.
- The founding created an inherently resilient system designed to evolve through cyclical crises rather than avoid them
- Each crisis (1776, 1820s, 1920s, 1970s) is followed by technological transformation and renewed prosperity, proving the system works
- Current moment is unique: both cycles are transitioning simultaneously, requiring simultaneous institutional and socioeconomic renewal by 2028
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The founders deliberately rejected the idea that they could trust government, so they created a system with intentional paralysis through separation of powers to protect both public and private life from government projects, meaning partisan division and failure to pass legislation is the system working as designed, not a failure.
“the government was not all that important the founders did not believe that you could trust government because people who wish to be governors usually want power and people who want power usually shouldn't rule so they surrounded him with two parliaments a supreme court with enormous power federal judges all over the place and created a system of paralysis and because of this paralysis sometimes self-uh self-enforced we were able to constantly evolve ourselves”
The United States is a unique invented country created by committee at the Constitutional Convention, designed as a deliberately weak presidency constrained by two houses of Congress, a Supreme Court, and distributed federal judges to prevent concentrated government power and enable constant evolution through technological innovation.
“the united states is unique it is an invented country it is a country that did not exist uh really at the time of the revolution there were maybe a million people here and it was a country that was defined by a committee the kind of the constitutional congress constitutional gathering and it created a system that was inherently resilient”
Slavery was not unique to the United States—it was common in Africa and many countries, and Brazil was the largest slave-holding nation—but what was extraordinary and distinctive in founding is that the US explicitly wrote slavery and human inequality into its founding legal documents rather than simply practicing it without ideological justification.
“slavery was common in africa slavery was common in many countries the largest slave owning country was brazil not the united states but the united states did something extraordinary when they met for a declaration of independence...i don't know of many who had in their founding instruments something that stated that the slaves were subhuman this was the extraordinary thing that founders did”
Progress is a value judgment, not a description of what is happening—the cycles may or may not represent progress depending on perspective, and the characteristic of crises is that when they're happening there is great debate about whether the country is being destroyed or improved, with everything being divisive and no consensus emerging.
“progress has become a value judgment it is not simply a description of what is happening it is an evaluation of whether it's good or bad okay uh these cycles may or may not be progress depending on how you look at it in fact the characteristic of the cycles is when they're happening there's great debate over whether the country is being destroyed by it or improved by it”
Experts have a fundamental defect: they know their domain beautifully but are not aware of the consequences of their knowledge on adjacent domains or the broader system, making expert-driven government inherently limited when crises span multiple domains.
“the essential problem is that these wars are planned by experts and experts have a fundamental defect they know their thing beautifully they're not aware of what they're doing on either side”
The founders of the United States did something historically extraordinary when they included in the Declaration of Independence the statement 'all men are created equal' but then at the Constitutional Convention, recognizing slavery was the economic foundation of southern states and needed their participation, wrote a clause categorizing enslaved people as 'three-fifths of a person' rather than fully human.
“the united states did something extraordinary when they met for a declaration of independence they wrote we hold these truths to be self-evident that all men are created equal they then went to the constitutional convention and they found that southerners would not give up their slaves as they were the foundation of their economy and the north understood that without the south as part of the country it couldn't work because then the british or the french would come form alliances within therein the founders at the constitutional convention i think that includes the southerners you perfectly well that the slaves are humans but they did a they wrote a clause that said they were three-fifths of a person”
The Soviet Union was similarly misassessed because analysts counted Soviet military hardware but not the systemic weakness of the Russian state, the lack of genuine enthusiasm for Soviet rule in Eastern European satellites, and the internal decay that made the Soviets appear more powerful than they actually were.
“we thought the soviet union was incredibly powerful because it counted all their tanks nobody counted their drunken men they just counted i say they were literally uh we found out that they were drunk they were not serious”
The presidency is deliberately weak institutionally (cannot pass legislation without Congress, courts, or coordination with multiple stakeholders) but powerful symbolically through the 'bully pulpit' (ability to be heard above all other Americans), creating a structural tension where the president can speak with authority but cannot deliver on promises without massive coalition-building and compromise.
“institutionally a president has very little power without getting both houses of congress aside or a court order or something so unlike a prime minister who has a overwhelming majority and is therefore virtually a dictator in a european country dar presidents are built to be weak they are primarily there to build coalitions to bring people together to move them around that's their primary job”
The United States never had a declaration of war after World War II despite multiple long-term military conflicts because President Harry Truman decided to frame the Korean War as a UN action rather than a US war, preventing formal declaration and public understanding that the nation was in existential crisis mode.
“harry truman wanted to go to war in korea he didn't know if he was going to get the votes or not probably not so he said remember the united nations we agreed to that therefore the united nations goes to war weak we go to war and since then there has never been another declaration of war despite of long periods of war and this is another institutional problem because by not having that there's not a signal to the public that this is different now okay and the public doesn't get a chance to agree or disagree through their senator as a congressman over whether it happens”
Trump's 2016 emergence and popularity was a manifestation of the industrial working class suffering economically from losses to China and technological displacement, demonstrating the crisis point of the old microchip-driven economic system
“trump represented that class in the country that has suffered the most under the old system he spoke for the industrial working class who had lost their jobs they claimed to china or whatever it doesn't matter whether it's true or not and he spoke to them and arrayed against him were what i'll call the technocrats who were making using the microchip to transform society and putting these people out of work so that crisis is there today”
China has not engaged in military conflict in modern history (last battle was 1895 against Japan, which China lost), lacks military institutional memory of warfare, and has untested troops, making military adventurism riskier for China than Western analysis typically acknowledges
“the chinese navy has never fought a battle the only battle china ever fought and see was 1895 and they got killed by the japanese war is far more than hardware it is commanders and troops that are ready for war or have institutional memories as the united states has about wars and how to handle them the chinese are cautious because they've got some hardware but do they have troops that know how to take casualties they they don't they're not sure”
The post-World War II prosperity of the 1950s-60s resulted not just from European destruction creating a vacuum, but from American internal processes of democratizing professionalism through the GI Bill, which created a mass professional class that built suburbs and transformed American society.
“what world war ii was did was solve the unemployment problem suddenly there was lots of employment and they saved their money they bought their bonds they came out of there to one of the most extraordinary things was the gi bill the gi bill created a middle class the gi bill said you can if you've been in the army you can go to college and do whatever you want and a class as class of professionals emerged where previously professionals had been a different source this is a mass movement of professionals they built the suburbs and they changed the country”
Cold War created the only true bipartisanship in modern American politics because both parties agreed on an existential external threat and accepted that the president had responsibility to manage it, and this consensus was lost when the Cold War ended.
“the only place we ever had true bipartisanship was during the cold war when we used to say that foreign policy that debate ends at the uh and we did have it we had a general consensus that there was an enormous danger and that the president was responsible for managing it and so on when the cold war ended we kind of lost that okay where foreign policy kind of sloped back into nothingness on the one hand or an area of debate”
Roosevelt's transformation era (New Deal and WWII) destroyed the economic basis of small-town agrarian America, shifting the center of gravity toward urban industrial centers, setting the stage for all subsequent transformations and creating the industrial working class that is now being displaced by the microchip transformation.
“roosevelt destroyed small town america in a way didn't destroy it it was still there but it was no longer the heart the urban industrial uh the microchip was the foundation of the new era the reagan era if you will it was the foundation and had a massive negative effect on olden old industries”
After the Great Depression and WWII crisis, the U.S. entered a period of extraordinary prosperity in the 1950s-1960s, which was followed by the crisis period of the late 1960s-1970s (stagflation, political instability, economic malaise), and then Ronald Reagan took office and implemented tax cuts on the wealthy to generate investment capital, which enabled the microchip-driven technological transformation and 40+ years of prosperity.
“then we come into the period after the chaos of let's say franklin roosevelt the president who comes in immediately after the crisis has the job of calming things down...then we ended a period of enormous prosperity at the period of 50s 60s this was enormously prosperous time well after richard nixon who was clearly a failed president”
China is structurally constrained by geographic and alliance factors: it faces a hostile alliance of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, India, and Australia with 33 trillion GDP versus China's 14 trillion GDP, and if the US blockaded Chinese ports it would strangle China's economy, making China's military threat more limited than commonly assessed.
“i regard china as an inherently weak country it has an alliance facing it of japan south korea taiwan the philippines indonesia vietnam india and australia it has absolutely no ally okay so even the soviet union so i look at this the way i looked at the cold war the russians at least had the buffer it's not the enthusiasm of poland and the eastern bloc the alliance that we have by the way they have 34 they have 14 trillion dollars in gdp alliance has 33 trillion dollars in other words it is economically larger hostile to china and it creates a situation where there are choke points for chinese vessels to get out now the terror of china is we're going to blockade their ports”
When comparing the current moment to 100 years prior, the United States clearly has made remarkable progress in capabilities, possibilities, and technical/intellectual achievements across a range of domains, validating that the system produces long-term growth despite cyclical crises.
“think of our lives today and think of our lives 100 years ago of course for some 100 years ago was good but we have an enormous number of possibilities and capabilities from technical to intellectual so on a range of things so in that sense clearly this is working”
The Erie Canal represented an enormous transformation of American geography and economic organization by connecting the Atlantic coast to inland waterways, enabling commerce patterns that changed how the nation functioned and European trade relationships.
“the erie canal which is not appreciated enough was an enormous transformation of geography how we use the mississippi river well that changed europe the way we can talk about”
The complexity of government has grown dramatically with social programs and healthcare: the Social Security Act consisted of 15 pages while the Affordable Care Act consisted of approximately 15,000 pages, reflecting the exponential growth of regulatory complexity that experts must navigate but cannot fully understand themselves.
“the social security act i believe consisted of 15 pages and transformed the country healthcare was 15 000 pages and no one has read the whole thing we're pretty sure we know what it says and the complexity that grows”
There is no female president yet because historically the issue was not female competence but deep American cultural views of male-female relationships, and Friedman predicts a female president is likely in the near future.
“i'd be very surprised that we didn't i mean there's no reason not to have female presidents nancy pelosi scares me but she is one hell of a spirit house i mean women are the issue was never women caught female competence the issue was a very deep trans-american view of the relationship between men and women and they see no reason i mean i'll bet good money that we'll have a female president”
Jimmy Carter attempted to apply Roosevelt-era solutions (taxing the wealthy to fund programs for the poor) to the 1970s stagflation crisis, but this reduced capital available for investment at a time when capital was desperately needed, worsening the crisis for major manufacturers like General Motors, Chrysler, and Ford.
“we had jimmy carter who tried to apply roosevelt's solution of cutting taxes for the poor to everyone and to do that meant that he reduced the amount of capital available for investment and as a result this was the time that general motors chrysler ford went through their first major crushing crisis”
Violence in the United States is not unique to the current period—riots broke out in many cities during the 1960s-1970s on race issues and other issues, ex-soldiers (bonus marchers) were crushed by the army, and violence has been recurring in American history, but the January 6 Capitol attack was unique and stunning because it directly attacked the seat of federal government rather than other targets.
“i would argue that that event has to be taken light of say portland yesterday where there were riots we had become violent but if we remember in the 1960s and 70s riots broke out many cities frequently on race issues but in other issues as well if you go back to the bonus marchers ex-soldiers of one of their bonuses that were crushed by the army that was there so violence in the united states is not unique right what was unique and stunning to me was attacking the capitol”
The U.S. system forces continuous technological and social evolution because the paralyzed government cannot prevent change and thus leaves space for private innovation: electricity, automobiles, railroads, and the microchip all emerged from private sector and market forces rather than government planning, and these technologies created the conditions for the next cycle of prosperity.
“we were able to constantly evolve ourselves with let's say new technologies with electricity with the automobile with the microchip we moved ourselves forward in productivity with those things some of which came from the government but none of which are truly developed by the government”
The United States operates through recurring 50-year socioeconomic cycles prefaced by crisis and political chaos (exemplified by 1776, 1820s Jackson era, 1920s-Great Depression, 1970s stagflation, and 2020s), after which a new president emerges who is forced by events to implement transformative policies enabling technological adoption and renewed prosperity.
“every 50 years we wind up in a situation where we have a massive shift in the way we operate prefaced by this kind of crisis so after andrew jackson takes over this is the period where we settle west this is a period where we transform the united states into an eastern uh rural and urban area into really one of the most extraordinarily profitable productive areas of the world after rutherford b hayes in this incredible crisis we move into the period of industrialization”
The US institutional structure undergoes cycles every 80 years where federal government power increases and centralizes: the Civil War (1861) marked the first shift from state to federal power, World War II (1941) marked the second shift requiring federal control of economy and society including creation of expert bureaucracy, and the present moment (2021) marks a third institutional crisis where the expert-driven government is failing and requires restructuring.
“the united states has an institutional cycle that shifts every 80 years amazingly i don't know why but the way the united states was founded there was tremendous power in the states and relatively little power in the federal government eighty years after the founding we have the civil war and out of the civil war comes a redefinition of the institutions of the united states where the federal government clearly asserts and claims rights over the state”
Andrew Jackson's election (1828) came after electoral fraud by John Quincy Adams (who forced the election into the House where he controlled votes) and represented a crisis resolution during a period of enormous economic upset where the US owed huge debts and pioneers couldn't buy land because the banking system was rigged against them, followed by westward settlement and economic transformation.
“50 years before that andrew jackson ran against uh john q quincy adams john quincy adams clearly stole the election by forcing it into the house of representatives where he controlled the votes to force them out then jackson came back and during this time uh was a time of enormous economic upset because the united states owed huge amounts of money to its own public and europe from the revolution and had no way of paying it back and because hoards of westernizing pioneers wanted land and couldn't buy it because the banking system was so rigged against them there was no chance”
Every crisis cycle in American history brings up the question of Black humanity and equity (Civil War, Great Depression, 1960s-70s Black Panthers era, and current moment), yet the problem remains perpetually insoluble because the founders explicitly embedded Black inferiority into the Constitution, making racial inequity a structural feature that cannot be solved through individual cycle reforms.
“every cycle brings this up the civil war uh the the depression that brings up the question of the ku klux klan and everything else the time before 1960's 1970's with the black panthers uh coming to the fore this is the constant theme of every cycle always insoluble it's always insoluble because that decision that forced decision the blacks perpetually in an institutional structure of inferiority”
Rutherford B. Hayes stole the 1876 election by manipulating the Electoral College and introduced the gold standard, which kicked off the industrial revolution in the United States, representing the transformative crisis resolution period following the Reconstruction era's chaos.
“50 years before that rutherford b hayes who you've probably never heard of but is extremely important because he introduced the gold standard and kicked off the industrial revolution in the united states well he stole the election now there used to be some debate over this but at this point historians are pretty sure you know he stole it by manipulating the electoral college”
The election of Biden solved nothing—the country remains deeply divided and mutually contentious, with those who support Biden and those who support Trump unable to understand each other's positions, so the division that existed before the election remains after it.
“the election solved nothing this country is deeply divided and worse mutually contentious those who support biden don't understand they can't understand those who support trump and vice versa so what came out of the election was what was there before a country divided”
Ronald Reagan's counterintuitive policy of cutting taxes on the rich (rather than poor) to generate investment capital was required because the country needed to rebuild infrastructure and enable investment in new technologies like Microsoft and Apple that the government could not develop on its own.
“a new president none of these presidents knew what they were going to do when they took office they were forced by events to do them and that was ronald reagan who did the unthinkable of cutting taxes on the rich in order to find investment capital in order to have money to rebuild the infrastructure of our economy and also to invest in things like microsoft or apple who kicked off the transformation of american society by having the money available to do had he not done this outrageous thing the ability to invest would have been constrained and america wouldn't have grown but it did”
The American character is built on the notion that the country is an invention—invented out of necessity by immigrants and various populations—so Americans are accustomed to constant reinvention and technological transformation, making crises appear destructive but actually serving as cleansing periods that enable the machine to evolve.
“the american character is built out of the american necessity we are invented and invented to run in a certain way and like any machine we have cycles and we go through them and necessarily when we go through those cycles we engage in massive social conflict”
Trump represented the industrial working class that has suffered under the microchip-driven technological transformation, particularly those who lost manufacturing jobs, while his opponents represented the technocratic class using the microchip to transform society and displace these workers, creating a fundamental class conflict that Biden cannot solve.
“trump represented that class in the country that has suffered the most under the old system he spoke for the industrial working class who had lost their jobs they claimed to china or whatever it doesn't matter whether it's true or not and he spoke to them and arrayed against him were what i'll call the technocrats who were making using the microchip to transform society and putting these people out of work so that crisis is there today biden can't solve it”
The COVID-19 pandemic and response will have lasting impacts on American democracy, specifically that the response to COVID represents an unprecedented societal shutdown that has never happened before in US history despite many previous disease epidemics, revealing a shift toward zero-risk tolerance that emerged in the last 15-20 years.
“are there lasting impacts of kohit for the for the u.s for american democracy yes i think we'll never have this response to a disease look we've had diphtheria we've had polio we've had others okay in the polio crisis when i was a small child my parents were terrified that i get it but life went off we went to the beach you know and so on we have a need in america for this notion of zero risk even though we don't have zero risk every time you get in your car you take a risk right well there's something that emerged in the last 15 20 years as part of the cycle has zero risk”
Education is currently broken: it is too expensive, extremely inefficient, and abhors vocational training, but federal student loans are becoming harder to access, forcing prices down and realignment with actual job needs, particularly creating demand for vocational training in healthcare fields that converges with medical technology needs.
“education uh is critical...education is too expensive it is extremely inefficient and it it abhors the concept of being vocational but yes at these prices we need our kids to go out and do things so this will also be a transformation uh we really can't afford this because loans from the federal government are not going to be as easy to get and the price has to be shifted more important it has to align with the human necessities and what we've learned here and we see coming forward is we're going to have to have a lot of vocational training in and around the medical field”
COVID-19 revealed the structural failure of the expert-driven government because experts in different domains (medicine, social policy, education) offered conflicting solutions, and the public felt disenfranchised when government implemented medical experts' solutions that carried massive social costs, making people believe government serves experts' interests rather than the people's interests.
“this system is not working and you saw it in covet one of the things about covid that was there that was important is the experts in medicine provided medical solutions the experts in social life tried to present other solutions covet created a range of problems for us one of which was medical it all emerged from there but each medical solution carried a cost a good part of the public felt massively disenfranchised because they felt that the choices that were being made by the experts were not the choices they would make”
A reasonable alternative COVID response would have focused resources on protecting those over 65 who faced highest mortality risk while allowing the broader society to function, acknowledging that this approach carried higher risk for some but would have mitigated collateral harms like family violence and child social development problems that resulted from societal lockdown.
“there are many deaths most occurred statistically in those 65 and over it was essential that those 65 and over be protected and money spent to make sure that they were protected but as you go down the line the death rate is much much lower so the idea that we close down the entire society to take care of these millions of deaths has to take into account who who are those subject to it now there's no doubt that closing down all of society was an appropriate response i mean it was certainly more secure than what i'm proposing but i see a range of consequences so for example families violence has soared okay you can imagine why children have not seen uh other children these are important things but not medical so yes i do think there was another approach to be taken it had higher risk but at the same time it took care of some of the peripheral issues”
Violence in the United States during the current crisis period is endemic on both sides of the political divide—left-wing riots in Seattle, right-wing Capitol invasion, police violence, attacks on professors—making the violence not a defining characteristic of one side but a symptom of the broader societal crisis.
“i would argue that that event has to be taken light of say portland yesterday where there were riots we had become violent but if we remember in the 1960s and 70s riots broke out many cities frequently on race issues but in other issues as well if you go back to the bonus marchers ex-soldiers of one of their bonuses that were crushed by the army that was there so violence in the united states is not unique right what was unique and stunning to me was attacking the capitol for the united states um there are many things that happened past year that stunned me the murder by police of people the professor friend i have was giving a speech and when he came out he was hit in the head by blunt instrument because somebody disagreed with him we're in a bad time okay and each side will pick the other side's violation of decency as central and much worse than before”
Medicine and healthcare will likely be the dominant technology of the next cycle because an aging population (people living longer, fewer children) creates both a political crisis (old voters voting for benefits paid by fewer young workers) and a medical necessity (preventing Alzheimer's and age-related disease is essential to keeping aging workers productive)
“well the thing that we need the most is medicine and the reason i say that is not covered necessarily with this people living much longer than they did millennials are having much your children that means as they get older and fewer children are born we're going to have a political problem the old guys are going to vote all sorts of goodies for themselves to be paid for by the young and more than that right now being over 80 means you're probably sick alzheimer's so we've got to keep these people working it's not it's not a problem to be old it's a problem to be old and sucking up resources so that we need a medical system that can deal with a group of diseases”
Presidents who emerge during transition periods between cycles do not know what they will do when taking office; they are forced by events and circumstances to develop policies, unlike earlier presidents who inherited established systems. This was true of Roosevelt, Reagan, and will be true of the president emerging around 2028.
“a new president none of these presidents knew what they were going to do when they took office they were forced by events to do them and that was ronald reagan who did the unthinkable of cutting taxes on the rich in order to find investment capital in order to have money to rebuild the infrastructure of our economy and also to invest in things like microsoft or apple”
The federal government shifted from a system where citizens could petition government and receive decisions from officials (pre-WWII) to an expert-driven system where citizens retain the right to petition but clerks lack authority to make decisions, making petition meaningless unless one is a large corporation with lobbyists, thereby disenfranchising ordinary citizens from government responsiveness.
“we can no longer petition the government something that is contained in the first amendment and is not taken seriously one of the rights we have is to petition our government that means that if you feel that your social security check is wrong you can go in and petition the government by talking to clerk but the experts who wrote the rules did not give that clerk the right to make a decision so you have the right to petition it but you should not have any expectation of being heard unless you're a large corporation in which case you have lobbyists”
Each cycle in American history is driven by a single dominant technology that socially is needed: railroads created the first cycle, electricity enabled the second cycle, automobiles enabled the third cycle, and the microchip enabled the current cycle now ending, and the next cycle will be driven by medicine/healthcare technology given aging population demographics.
“if we take a look at each cycle it's driven by a technology there are other parts to it so this cycle they were ending now was driven by the microchip it enabled everything else the other cycle the roosevelt cycle it was before then uh that radio was driven by the automobile the one before that was driven by electricity the one before that by railroads the dominant technology is the one that's needed that socially is needed”
The United States historically mobilizes late for wars compared to adversaries who can build armies quickly through centralized authority, but the US ultimately prevails because it has institutional memory of warfare, trained commanders, and troops experienced with casualties, whereas newer military powers lack these institutional advantages despite hardware advantages.
“the chinese navy has never fought a battle the only battle china ever fought and see was 1895 and they got killed by the japanese war is far more than hardware it is commanders and troops that are ready for war or have institutional memories as the united states has about wars and how to handle them the chinese are cautious because they've got some hardware but do they have troops that know how to take casualties they they don't they're not sure”
The founders of the United States created an engine with inherent cycles designed to bring prosperity through adaptation, not to run at constant output, meaning the cycles are not a failure of the system but essential to its functioning.
“if you built an engine it would have to cycle an engine does not run at full blast it does not run in one stage it goes through cycles needed to stabilize it needed to do whatever it does founders created an engine and that engine was designed to bring prosperity that was the biggest issue inevitably the way you did it before has to change the idea that i've got a model for how to develop a country and that's going to be it well the founders never thought that and so we necessarily run to the end of a cycle”
Biden administration will follow the pattern of transition presidents (like Ford, Coolidge, Hoover) who do little and accomplish little, followed by an election and a new president who also lacks direction, and only around 2028 will a president emerge with the political capital and coalition to implement major systemic change
“well first i think it's very important to understand that the election solved nothing this country is deeply divided and worse mutually contentious those who support biden don't understand they can't understand those who support trump and vice versa so what came out of the election was what was there before a country divided now the next president has to be someone who tries to calm the spirit he does that by doing little so when gerald ford announced his great american nightmare is over okay he then proceeded to do little he'll do little because he can't do much 50 50 split in the senate”
The United States is currently experiencing two simultaneous cycle transitions for the first time in history—the 50-year socioeconomic cycle and the 80-year institutional cycle are both reaching transition points at roughly the same time (2020s), which could either make the crisis worse or could enable better solutions by forcing simultaneous renewal.
“there's one other dimension that and i'll start taking audience questions after this question but um there's something about the current moment that i think you're stating is unique because we have these these two cycles and um both of them are at this moment looking for the transition to their next stage pretty much at the same time both on the institutional governmental focus level but also on the socioeconomic societal level as well it is the first time that's happened in american history”
Both the socioeconomic crisis (which requires government to 'let go' and enable private innovation) and the institutional crisis (which requires government to be more flexible and put experts in their place) have complementary requirements that 'go together,' suggesting the next phase can be well-aligned even if unprecedented.
“they also have things in common on one side the socioeconomic crisis really requires in all cases that the government let go and let apple be apple you know whatever that is okay on the other side the institutional change is going to demand that the government be more flexible and more open and that the experts be put in their place and other governors oversee them that kind of goes together”
Violence is most severe and widespread in the final periods before major transformation in American history, specifically the period before the Civil War (comparable to current moment), making the current level of violence predictable and consistent with historical pattern rather than unprecedented.
“if we remember in the 1960s and 70s riots broke out many cities...if you go back to the bonus marchers...so violence in the united states is not unique...i the one before i've read the behaves was the civil war so i want to throw it at it this is time we get violent”
There is no consensus on how to reduce harm during transition periods—half the country demands continuation of one set of policies while the other half demands the opposite, making cushioning the crisis impossible without agreement that never emerges.
“is there something that we as a society should be doing to reduce harm during these periods of transition or chaos yes there is but nobody agrees on what it is one of the characteristics of our time is you've got half the country demanding that trump's policy be followed the other half the society say my god of anything we do don't do it this is a time when there is no consensus and there's no engineering project you just work your way through it”
Both sides of the current political divide will pick the other side's violations of decency as central and more severe than their own, and both sides are right that there are serious violations (murder by police, political violence, physical assault on professors), making it impossible for an external observer to determine which violations are 'worse' because the metrics are incommensurable.
“each side will pick the other side's violation of decency as central and much worse than before so one of the things i got from a lot of readers was uh when talking about capital why aren't you talking about uh the violence in seattle well because i wasn't talking about fiance but but the point is step back see the violence see that it's endemic on both sides”
Biden will be a president who speaks greatly but carries a small stick, meaning he will promise much and deliver little due to congressional constraint, and the public's disappointment with his inability to accomplish goals will set stage for the next phase of crisis and transformation.
“the expectation that i have simply based on what happened in the past is that biden is going to be a president who will speak greatly and carry a small stick i mean he does he's got a small stick um and over time his disappointment in him will cut into didn't do more and the fact that he couldn't do more is not going to be in anybody's mind and so an election will be held which sometimes in this case means a republican will come in after him because he didn't get anything done”
The next major presidential transition and systemic transformation cycle is likely to occur around 2028, about 10 years into the current crisis period (which began around 2016-2020), following the pattern where transition periods last approximately a decade between initial crisis and major systemic change.
“so far every time it's broken through but where you should look at yourself is think about 10 years think about donald trump and you'll see that we're kind of at the beginning”
Friedman speculates that the simultaneous transition of both cycles 'should make everything worse' but he has no evidence to support this, and in fact the crises have been 'about as bad as ever,' suggesting simultaneous transitions may not worsen outcomes relative to previous single-cycle transitions.
“one could say that it should make everything worse but i have no evidence to do that it's just about as bad as ever”
Technology needs and educational needs converge in the next cycle because medicine requires a large corps of trained people and that training is vocational rather than requiring liberal arts degrees, so the transformation of education toward vocational training and the emergence of medicine as the dominant technology work together naturally.
“maybe our technology needs and opportunities and our education needs and opportunities converge as we go forward”
Political and economic voices that are small in size get lost in the political cacophony even if they represent real suffering, because powerful classes that emerge in crisis periods speak for constituencies that can swing elections, and a coalition that includes all suffering groups is 'very hard to do' because crisis periods produce winners and losers with incompatible interests.
“well it depends on their sizes i mean he the problem is voices here get lost in the cacophony they're poor but he spoke to a certain class to say one way that reagan spoke for the professional suburban class and roosevelt spoke for the industrial working class okay so each there's a there's a powerful class that emerges not necessarily the richest but the most powerful”
Americans constantly believe they live in the worst possible time and have never lived in such conditions before, but historical analysis shows these moments repeat cyclically, indicating a tendency toward catastrophic thinking rather than accurate assessment
“firstly that we always think we live in a worse time nothing could be worse than what we had seen in 1975 rarely is it the worst time we keep doing it to ourselves”
Lack of mutual respect and deep interests of different political sides characterize crisis periods, but this is not new to American history—it has occurred regularly, making the current partisan hatred unpleasant but not unprecedented.
“a lack of mutual respect which is what you get at this time and so...it really comes from very deep interests and very deep needs and a lack of mutual respect which is what you get at this time...that's that's not that's not new it's just unpleasant right”
Harvard's historical admissions process used informal criteria like 'is this someone you'd like to room with' as part of evaluation, representing an older educational model that prioritized formation of character and community over purely academic selection.
“your harvard university uh used to give out interviews uh people would interview potential candidates and they'd ask questions like is this the kind of person you'd like to room with is this the kind of person that you'd like to have lunch with you know a question of that i thought was a scot for zero novel that i had wandered into”
The 9/11 attacks briefly created a sense of unity in American politics around foreign policy, similar to Cold War bipartisanship, but this unity subsequently eroded over subsequent wars and policy debates.
“and honestly in in light of the 9 11 tragedies um there was for better or worse a sense of unity in uh in respect of that”
Friedman held a hand-held calculator in 1972 at Cornell that cost $200, which he did not understand would revolutionize the future of the country and American character, not recognizing the calculator as the microchip era in its infancy.
“i held a mic hp hand calculator in 1972 in my hands at cornell and i said who the hell's going to buy this at 200 you know i had no idea what i was holding in my head my future the future my country the american character is built out of the american necessity”
Dr. Fauci's position during COVID represented the expert-driven governance model where 'there is no tolerable risk—anything you can get rid of you get rid of,' which reflects the cultural shift toward zero-risk rather than deliberating about tolerable risk levels that might balance medical against non-medical costs.
“now as that's dr falchi there is no tolerable risk anything you can get rid of you get rid of now what is a tolerable risk well that becomes an interesting question”
The book was begun in 1975 in a bar with friends who were bemoaning the state of the country as if it were unprecedented, which led Friedman to search for historical parallels and discover the 50-year cycle pattern.
“i started writing his book in a bar in 1975. uh we were drinking some really cheap bourbon with two friends and they were bemoaning the fate of the country they'd never seen such”
The 1960s-70s crisis involved multiple dimensions: the war in Vietnam, civil rights movements (Martin Luther King assassination, Bobby Kennedy assassination, riots, Kent State shooting), economic crisis (18% interest rates, high unemployment), and a president forced from office for criminality, yet the country resolved it
“in 1967 the 82nd airborne occupied uh detroit to put down a gunfight in 1968 martin luther king was killed bobby kennedy were killed at the convention in 1968 mass riots broke out it was chaos beyond belief many people were injured 1969 also was kent state when national guardsmen shot down a group of anti-anti-war uh demons a group of anti-war demonstrators um it was also about that time when uh we were in an economic crisis of what had been unexpected proportions of interest rates running at about 18 when you bought a house unemployment high it was a time of enormous stress and not to mention it of course the president united states uh was forced out of office when it turned out he'd been a criminal”
The United States experienced unprecedented innovation in taking technological advances from military R&D (WWII) and converting them to consumer/civilian use (GI Bill creating professionals, Interstate Highway System, microchip), which was metabolized differently than in other countries and emerged as a source of competitive advantage
“we're one of the countries we came out richer and ended his depression um the next question which is also goes to this notion of how do we know where we are in the cycle when we're living through it and um also this this allows i think your analysis to step back from either the beauty or tragedy of individual historical events but the question is how will we know when we're on the other side of this current 50 or 80 year cycle well historically when the moment becomes unbearable there is no solution obvious there will be a new president and the new congress and you so on because democracy and things will change so in the past these periods of transition were about a decade long okay so you started with the crisis sometime in the late 60s and then by 1980 you get reagan if that's the case we've got a ways to go we're we're just rock you know in”
Healthcare complexity created by expert-written rules (15,000 pages vs. Social Security's 15 pages) creates a system where ordinary people cannot petition effectively or receive responsive government, contributing to public disengagement from democracy
“the social security act i believe consisted of 15 pages and transformed the country healthcare was 15 000 pages and no one has read the whole thing we're pretty sure we know what it says and the complexity that grows”