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Freeman Dyson with dry wit and self-effacing good humor explains that by heretical he means ideas that go against prevailing dogmas, and that in his self-appointed role as heretic, he is unimpressed by conventional wisdom.
Hosted by Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future on November 1, 2005.
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Freeman Dyson argues that long-range future outcomes (35-200 years) are fundamentally unpredictable and that prevailing scientific and political orthodoxies must be challenged by heretical thinking; the future will be shaped by how humanity adopts biotechnology, manages land and carbon, balances green and gray technologies, and addresses rural poverty.
- Science is organized unpredictability; predictions about complex systems are inherently unreliable and should be approached as speculative fiction rather than scientific fact
- Six specific heresies (decline of US dominance, exaggerated climate models, wet Sahara possibility, domesticated biotechnology, post-Darwinian evolution, green technology for rural poverty) challenge prevailing orthodoxies and demonstrate how current consensus may be wrong
- The long-range future depends on choices about technology adoption and resource management that have not yet been made, particularly regarding biotechnology domestication and the balance between green (biology-based) and gray (physics-based) technologies
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John von Neumann invented computer software (punch card coded instructions) not the hardware (electronic computer existed at University of Pennsylvania as ENIAC), and software gave computers agility and flexibility allowing a single machine to predict weather, simulate populations, and test hydrogen bomb feasibility.
“the mathematician John von Neumann designing and building the first electronic computer that operated with instructions coded encoded into the machine from Neyman did not invent the electronic computer the computer called ENIAC had been running at the University of Pennsylvania five years earlier what fun Lyman invented was software the coded instructions that gave the computer agility and flexibility it was the combination of electronic hardware with punch card software that allowed a single machine to predict the weather to simulate the evolution of populations of living creatures and to test the feasibility of hydrogen bombs”
Flower breeders (orchids, roses) and reptile breeders (lizards, snakes) represent thousands of amateur and professional breeders who devote their lives to producing new varieties; genetic engineering tools in the hands of these breeders will produce an explosion of diversity rather than monoculture.
“every orchid or rose or lizard or snake is the work of a dedicated and skilled breeder there are thousands of people amateurs and professionals who devote their lives to this business now imagine what will happen when the tools of genetic engineering become accessible to those people”
We do not know whether topsoil in the United States is increasing or decreasing; in the rest of the world, large-scale deforestation and erosion suggest topsoil reservoirs are probably decreasing; we do not know whether intelligent management could increase global topsoil growth by 4 billion tons of carbon per year (the amount needed to offset fossil fuel emissions).
“at present we don't know whether the topsoil of the United States is increasing or decreasing over the rest of the world because of large-scale deforestation and erosion the topsoil reservoirs probably decreasing we don't know whether intelligent man and management could increase the growth of topsoil by four billion tons of carbon per year the amount needed to stop the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere all that we can say for sure is that this is a theoretical possibility and we ought to be seriously exploring it”
Von Neumann failed to foresee computers becoming small, cheap, and ubiquitous (for household income tax calculations, children's homework, computer games), and particularly failed to foresee computer games as dominant feature of 21st century life creating indelible human-computer addiction from childhood.
“he failed to foresee computers growing small enough and cheap enough to be used by housewives for doing income tax returns or by kids for doing homework he failed utterly to foresee the final domestication of computers as toys for three-year-olds he failed totally to foresee the emergence of computer games as a dominant feature of 20th 21st century life because of computer games our grandchildren and our growing up with an indelible addiction to computers for better or for worse in sickness or in health till death do us part humans and computers are now joined together more durably than husbands and wives”
Most people using domesticated biotechnology to cause trouble will be small fry like young computer hackers spreading viruses, but there is a crucial difference: while computer viruses can be contained, real viruses like influenza and HIV cannot, so society must prevent kids from playing with dangerous pathogens even as they play with roses and snakes.
“the majority of people using domesticated biotechnology to cause trouble will probably be small fry like the young computer hackers who spread computer viruses around on the Internet on the other hand there's a big difference between a computer virus and the real virus like influenza or HIV if we allow kids to play around with roses and snakes we still have to stop them from playing around with viruses”
Since 10,000 years ago, cultural evolution (spread of ideas) has replaced biological evolution as the main driving force of change; cultural evolution runs a thousand times faster than Darwinian evolution and spreads by horizontal transfer of ideas more than genetic inheritance.
“since that time cultural evolution has replaced biological evolution as the main driving force of change cultural evolution is not Darwinian cultural cultures spread by horizontal transfer of ideas more than by genetic inheritance cultural evolution is running a thousand times faster than Darwinian evolution”
Heresy 6: Rural poverty is one of the great evils of the modern world; the lack of jobs in villages drives billions of people to migrate to overcrowded cities causing immense social and environmental problems; the world needs technology that creates wealth and jobs directly in villages.
“my sixth and last heresy is about rural poverty rural poverty is one of the great evils of the modern world the lack of jobs and economic opportunities in villages drives millions of people or billions of people to migrate from villages into overcrowded cities the continuing migration causes immense social and environmental problems in the major cities of poor countries the effects of poverty are most visible in the cities but the causes of poverty like mostly in the villages the what the world needs is a technology that directly attacks the problem of rural poverty by creating wealth and jobs in the villages”
Regarding reductionist vs. synthetic science: Both reductionist and synthetic science are necessary; Rose's point is that the 21st century may have more synthetic science and less reductionist science, representing a shift in balance rather than the elimination of either approach.
“clearly that that was what was great about it of course was that it wasn't a sure thing and it turned out to be right that's what we all hope for and as far as the balance but of course we need reductionist science as well as synthetic science and what Rose is saying is that the 21st century will have more synthetic science may be less reductionist science the balance may be shifts a bit we certainly still need both um”
In response to question about population growth: Population growth is amazingly unpredictable; Dyson grew up in England when population decline was feared, now it's growing; in many countries it's falling drastically; when women are empowered to control their lives, population falls rapidly; Mexico's average family size fell from seven to 2.5 in 50 years.
“population growth of course is again something which is amazingly unpredictable it's a I mean I was I grew up to the time in England when everybody was worried the population was falling and then of course it went up quite rapidly and now in many countries in the world it's starting to fall drastically I was in Italy a couple of years ago and they were joking that if you come back here in a hundred years they'll be nobody around except Albanians it is amazing how as soon as women are empowered to take charge of their lives population Falls and amid one of the most remarkable one of the most remarkable numbers I happen to remember is that the average size of a family in Mexico went down from seven to two-and-a-half within 50 years”
Rock paintings in the Sahara dating to 6,000 years ago show herds of cattle, giraffes, hippopotamuses, and elephants, proving the Sahara was wet at that time with sufficient rain and vegetation to support large herbivores.
“Sahara paintings are more recent than the cave paintings they come in a variety of styles and were probably painted over a period of several thousand years the latest of them show Egyptian influences and must be contemporaneous with early Egyptian tomb paintings the best of the Hurd paintings dates from roughly 6,000 years ago they are strong evidence that the Sahara at that time was wet there must have been enough rain to support herds of cows and giraffes which must have grazed on grass and trees there were also some hippopotamuses and elephants the Sahara then must have been like the Serengeti today”
There was a golden age of pre-Darwinian life when horizontal gene transfer was universal and separate species did not exist; life was a community of cells sharing genetic information, allowing clever chemical tricks invented by one cell to be inherited by all, enabling rapid communal evolution.
“he is postulating a golden age of pre-darwinian life when horizontal gene transfer was Universal and separate species did not exist life was then a community of cells of various kinds sharing their genetic information so that clever chemical tricks and catalytic processes invented by one creature could be inherited by all of them evolution was a communal affair the whole community is advancing in metabolic and reproductive efficiency as the genes of the most efficient cells were shared evolution could be rapid as new chemical devices could be evolved simultaneously by cells of different kinds working in parallel and then reassembled in a single cell by horizontal gene transfer”
Tommie Gold proposed a heretical idea that oil and natural gas in the ground originate from deep in the Earth's mantle and have nothing to do with biology, an idea experts dismissed but which recent experiments at the Carnegie Institution mixing calcium carbonate, iron oxide, and water at mantle pressure and temperature successfully produced methane, suggesting his hypothesis was correct.
“later in his life he promoted another heretical idea that the oil and natural gas in the ground come up from deep in the mantle of the earth and have nothing to do with biology again the experts are sure he is wrong and he didn't live long enough to change their minds but just a few months ago some chemists at the clinic Institution in Washington did a beautiful experiment in a diamond anvil cell they mixed together tiny quantities of three things that we know exist in the mantle of the earth and observed them at the pressure and temperature appropriate to the mantle about 200 kilometers down the three things were calcium carbonate which is sedimentary rock an oxide which is a component of igneous rock and water those three things are certainly present when a slab of subducted ocean floor descends from a deep ocean trench into the mantle the experiment shows that they react quickly to produce lots of methane which is natural gas”
Six thousand years ago was the warmest and wettest period of the interglacial era which began 12,000 years ago; deciduous forests existed in northern Europe where conifers now grow, and glaciers were much smaller than today.
“at the same time roughly six thousand years ago that were deciduous forests in northern northern Europe we can see the pollen from those forests at the bottom of lakes you're quite accurately dated deciduous forests where the trees are now conifers proving that the climate in the far north was milder then than it is today there were also trees standing in mountain valleys in Switzerland which are now filled with famous glaciers the glaciers that are now shrinking in Switzerland were much smaller six thousand years ago than they are today six thousand years ago seems to have been the warmest and wettest period of the interglacial era it began 12,000 years ago when the last ice age ended”
The carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere has two important consequences: changes in radiation physics and changes in plant biology; opinions differ on whether the physical or biological effects dominate and whether they are beneficial or harmful.
“everyone agrees that the increasing abundance of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has two important consequences first a change in the physics of radiation transport in the atmosphere and second a change in the biology of plants on the ground and in the ocean opinions differ on the relative importance of the physical and biological effects and on whether the effects either separately or together are beneficial or harmful”
There are five biologically-accessible carbon reservoirs on short timescales (atmosphere, land plants, topsoil, ocean surface, fossil fuels) of comparable size that interact strongly with each other; to understand any one requires understanding all five.
“there are five reservoirs of Claven that are biologically accessible on a short timescale not counting the carbonate rocks and the deep ocean which are only accessible on a timescale of thousands of years the five accessible reservoirs are the atmosphere the land plants the topsoil in which land plants grow the surface layer of the ocean in which ocean plants grow and our reserves of fossil fuels the atmosphere is the smallest reservoir and the fossil fuels are the largest but all five of them are of comparable size they all interact strongly with one another and two understand any of them it's necessary to understand all of them”
When plants grow in enriched carbon dioxide atmosphere, many increase their root-to-shoot ratio, meaning they grow more roots and fewer leaves; this occurs because plants must balance leaf area (collecting carbon) with root area (collecting minerals), and enriched air requires less leaf area.
“greenhouse experiments show that many plants growing in an atmosphere enriched with carbon dioxide react by increasing their route to shoot ratio this means that the plants put more of their growth into roots and less into stems and leaves a change in that direction is to be expected because the plants have to maintain a balance between the leaves collecting carbon from the air and the roots collecting minerals from the soil the enriched atmosphere tilts the balance so that the plants need less leaf area and more root area”
In response to a question about internet impact: The internet is not only a distant future tool but is right here now; it is extremely powerful and will have significant long-range impact; China particularly will develop its own version of Google.
“oh it's not only distant it's right here of course no I don't know how we used to live without Google now I recently paid a visit to with fine with 150 school children to the headquarters of Google in Menlo Park it's a fantastic place everybody ought to go there I mean that's the future apart from biology I mean that that that's doing wonderful things for the world and and it's as you say especially in China because they'll have their own Google very soon yeah”
The cloning of Dolly the sheep occurred at a rural animal breeding station in Scotland rather than in an urban laboratory in Silicon Valley, suggesting that green biotechnology will maintain rural locations and not become entirely concentrated in cities.
“after all the cloning of Dolly occurred in a rural animal breeding station in Scotland not in an urban laboratory in Silicon Valley”
To understand carbon movement through atmosphere and biosphere, one key metric is that if all carbon emitted from fossil fuels were absorbed by biomass, the average increase in biomass thickness over half the Earth's land area would be one hundredth of an inch per year, or one inch per century.
“the number that I asked you to remember is one hundredth of an inch per year let's to say one inch per century so now I'll explain what that number means consider the half of the land area of the earth that's not desert or ice cap or city or Road or parking lot this is the heart of the land that's covered with soil and supports vegetation of one kind or another every year it absorbs and converts into biomass a certain fraction of the carbon dioxide that we emit into the atmosphere we don't know how big a fraction it absorbs since we have not measured the increase or decrease of the biomass the number that I ask you to remember is the increase in thickness averaged over one half of the land area of the planet of the biomass that would result is all the carbon that we are emitting burning fossil fuels were absorbed the average increase in thickness is one hundredth of an inch per year”
A corn field in full sunlight uses up all the carbon dioxide within a meter of the ground in about five minutes, so the atmosphere must be constantly stirred by convection and winds or plants would stop growing; this demonstrates the critical importance of CO2 to plant biology.
“a field of corn growing in full sunlight in the middle of the day uses up all the carbon dioxide within a metre of the ground in about five minutes if the air were not constantly stirred by convection currents and winds the corn would stop growing”
Carl Woese discovered the large-scale Tree of Life structure with all creatures descended from three primordial branches; he recently published work showing that Darwinian evolution based on non-interbreeding species did not begin at the origin of life.
“Cabo's is the world's greatest expert in the field of microbial taxonomy he explored the ancestry of microbes by tracing the similarities and differences between their genomes he discovered the large-scale structure of the Tree of Life with all living creatures descended from three primordial branches he recently published the provocative and illuminating article with the title a new biology for a new century in the June 2004 issue of microbiology and molecular biology reviews”
Tommie Gold was a heretic astronomer whose unpopular ideas about human hearing (tuned resonators with active electromechanical feedback) took 40 years to be validated by expert discovery of hair cells in the inner ear that perform exactly this feedback mechanism.
“Tommie gold a famous astronomer who died at a ripe old age he was famous as a heretic promoting unpopular ideas the usually turned out to be right long ago I was a guinea pig in Tommy's experiments on human hearing he had a heretical idea that the human ear discriminates pitch by means of a set of tuned resonators with active electromechanical feedback the experts in order to refuse e ology ignored his work because he didn't have a degree in Physiology many years later the experts discovered the two kinds of hair cells in the inner ear that actually do the feedback as Tommy had predicted it took the experts 40 years to admit that he was right”
Heresy 3: The climate 6,000 years ago when the Sahara was wet is preferable to today's climate with a dry Sahara, and increasing carbon dioxide may help bring the wet Sahara back.
“my third heresy answers yes to the first question and no to the second it says the warm climate of 6,000 years ago with the wet Sahara is on the whole to be preferred and that increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may help to bring it back I'm not saying this heresy is true I'm only saying it won't do us any harm to think about it”
The warming caused by carbon dioxide is real but is mostly making cold places warmer (Arctic, winter, night) rather than hot places hotter (tropics, summer, day), so representing this local warming as a global average is grossly misleading.
“the warming effect of carbon dioxide is strongest where the air is cold and dry mainly in the Arctic rather than in the tropics mainly in winter rather than in summer mainly at night rather than in daytime the warming is real but it is mostly making cold places warmer rather rather than making hot places hotter to represent this local warming by a global average is grossly misleading”
Biotech games for children down to kindergarten age played with real eggs and seeds rather than screen images will teach kids organism biology intimately; games where kids grow cutest dinosaur or prickly cactus will create childhood attachment to biotechnology analogous to computer games.
“the final step in the domestication of biotechnology will be biotech games designed like computer games for children down to kindergarten age but played with real eggs and seeds rather than with images on a screen playing such games kids will acquire an intimate feeling for the organisms that they are growing the winner could be the kid whose seed grows the prickly actus or the kid whose egg hatches the cutest dinosaur”
The problem of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is fundamentally a problem of land management, not a problem of meteorology, because computer models of atmosphere and ocean cannot predict how humans will manage land in the future.
“I conclude from this calculation that the problem of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a problem of land management not a problem of meteorology no computer model of atmosphere and ocean can hope to predict the way we shall manage our land”
Public debates about climate change reveal enormous gaps in knowledge, sparseness of observations, and superficiality of theories; many basic processes of planetary ecology are poorly understood and must be better understood before accurate diagnosis of the planet's condition is possible.
“when I listen to the public debates about climate change I am impressed by the enormous gaps in our knowledge the sparseness of our observations and the superficiality of our theories many of the basic processes of planetary ecology are poorly understood they must be better understood before we can reach an accurate diagnosis of the present condition of the planet”
The world always needs heretics to challenge prevailing orthodoxy; the role of heresy is essential even though old heretics are less influential than young ones, so young people in the audience should take on the role of heretic to challenge future dogmas.
“the world always needs heretics to challenge the prevailing orthodoxy we are lucky that we can be heretics today without being burned at the stake but unfortunately I'm an old heretic old heretics don't catch much ice when you hear an old heretic talking you can always say too bad he's lost his marbles and pass on what the world needs is young heretics”
Heresy 2: The fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated; climate models solve fluid dynamics equations well but do very poor jobs describing clouds, dust, chemistry, and biology, so their predictions about the real world are unreliable.
“my second heresy will take longer to explain and discuss it says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated here I'm opposing the holy Brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the climate models of course they say I have no degree in meteorology and I'm therefore not qualified to speak but I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do but the models solve the equations of fluid dynamics and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans they do a very poor job of describing the clouds the dust the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests they do not begin to describe the real world that we live in”
Then one cell resembling a primitive bacterium found itself more efficient than neighbors and separated itself from the community, refused to share its offspring, becoming the first species; with superior efficiency it continued to prosper separately while community continued communal life.
“but then one evil day a cell resembling a primitive bacterium happened to find itself one jump ahead of its neighbors in efficiency that cell anticipating Bill Gates by three billion years separated itself from the community and refused to share its offspring became the first species reserving its intellectual property for its own private use with its superior efficiency it continued to prosper and to evolve separately while the rest of the community continued its communal life”
As a scientist, Dyson does not have much faith in predictions because science is organized unpredictability—scientists arrange experiments to be as unpredictable as possible and then observe what happens, making true predictions impossible from within the scientific method itself.
“as a scientist I don't have much faith in predictions science is organized unpredictability what scientists do is to arrange things in an experiment to be as unpredictable as possible and then do the experiment to see what will happen you might say that if something is predictable then it's not science”
Heresy 5: The open source movement in software may recapitulate in decades the history of life on Earth over billions of years, through the mechanism of horizontal gene transfer.
“my fifth heresy says the open source movement may be recapitulating in a few decades the history of life on Earth over billions of years”
In response to question about prediction in science: Occasionally scientists make successful predictions (Dirac and others), but these are exceptions and not the rule; most predictions are wrong and disappear from literature; therefore successful predictions should be valued but not relied upon for understanding the future.
“so clearly the fact is that rich Shelley was a genius and so he predicted things right and that occasionally happens but still at the time when he made the prediction it wasn't a sure thing I mean even for him and and so I mean clearly that that was what was great about it of course was that it wasn't a sure thing and it turned out to be right that's what we all hope for”
As an Englishman, Dyson has personal experience with a nation gracefully yielding its position as number one to become number two, and he advises Americans that yielding gracefully is how to handle the inevitable decline of American dominance.
“because as an Englishman I had some experience with doing that I'm telling you misfortunes are on the way your precious PhD or whatever degree you went through long years of hard work to acquire may be worth less than you think your specialized training may become obsolete you may find yourself overqualified for the available jobs you may be declared redundant the country and the culture to which you belong may move far away from the mainstream but those misfortunes are also opportunities”
Beyond disagreements about facts, there is a deeper disagreement about values between naturalists (who believe nature knows best and human disruption of nature is evil) and humanists (who believe humans have the right and duty to reconstruct nature for human and biosphere survival).
“but beyond the disagreements about facts there's another disagreement a deeper disagreement about values the disagreement about values may be described in an oversimplified way as a disagreement between natural ists and humanists natural ists believe that nature knows best for them the highest value is to respect the natural order of things any gross human disruption of the natural environment is evil excessive excessive burning of fossil fuels is evil changing nature's desert either the Sahara Desert or the ocean desert into a managed ecosystem where giraffes or tuna fish may flourish is likewise evil nature knows best”
Humanist ethics accepts increased atmospheric CO2 as a small price to pay for worldwide industrial development that alleviates misery of the poor; naturalist ethics opposes genetic engineering while humanist ethics sees engineered crops as tools to control carbon and enrich poor people in tropical countries.
“the humanist ethic accepts an increase of club and dioxide in the atmosphere as a small price to pay if worldwide industrial development can alleviate the miseries of the poorer half of humanity the humanist ethic accepts our responsibility to guide the evolution of the planet the sharpest conflict between naturalist and humanist ethics arises in the regulation of genetic engineering the natural aesthetic condemns genetically modified food crops and all other genetic engineering projects that might upset the natural ecology the humanist ethic looks forward to a time not far distant when genetically engineered food crops and energy crops will bring wealth to poor people in tropical countries and incidentally give us tools to control the growth of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere”
The naturalist ethic is the driving force behind the Kyoto Protocol; it condemns human disruption of nature (fossil fuel burning, managed ecosystems) as inherently evil.
“the naturalist ethic is I believe the driving force behind the Kyoto Protocol”
The Darwinian interlude (competition between species based on genetic isolation) lasted about 3 billion years and ended roughly 10,000 years ago when Homo sapiens began to dominate and reorganize the biosphere.
“the Darwinian interlude had begun now after 3 billion years the Darwinian interlude is over it was an interlude between two periods of horizontal gene transfer the epoch of Darwinian evolution based on competition between species ended about 10,000 years ago when a single species Homo sapiens began to dominate and reorganize the biosphere”
A possible future scenario is China becoming rich through burning coal while the United States becomes environmentally virtuous by accumulating topsoil, with carbon transported from Chinese coal mines to American soil via the atmosphere, keeping atmospheric carbon constant.
“consider a possible future with China continuing to develop an industrial economy based largely on the burning of coal and the United States deciding to absorb the resulting carbon dioxide by increasing the biomass in our topsoil the quantity of biomass that can be accumulated in living plants and trees is limited but there's no limit to the quantity that can be stored in top soil to grow topsoil on a massive scale may or may not be practical depending on the economics of farming and irrigation it is at least a possibility to be seriously considered that china could become rich by burning coal well the United States could become environmentally virtuous by accumulating topsoil with transport of carbon from the mine in China to the soil in America provided free of charge by the atmosphere and the inventory of Clavin in the atmosphere remaining constant”
Sunlight is most abundant in tropical countries where a large fraction of the world's population lives and where rural poverty is most acute, making green technology a great equalizer since sunlight is distributed more equitably than coal and oil.
“it's fortunate that sunlight is most abundant in tropical countries where a large fraction of the world's people live and where rural poverty is most acute since sunlight is distributed more equitably than coal and oil green technology can be a great equalizer helping to narrow the gap between rich and poor countries”
The problems caused by warming are grossly exaggerated because the money and attention given to climate change takes away from more urgent and important problems like poverty, infectious diseases, public education, public health, and preservation of living creatures on land and in oceans.
“what I'm saying is that the problems are grossly exaggerated they take away money and attention from other problems that are more urgent and more important such as poverty and infectious diseases and public education and public health and the preservation of living creatures on land and in the oceans”
If domestication of biotechnology becomes reality, five important questions need answers: (1) Can it be stopped? (2) Ought it to be stopped? (3) What are appropriate limits if it cannot or should not be stopped? (4) How should limits be decided? (5) How should limits be enforced nationally and internationally?
“if domestication of biotechnology is really the wave of the future five important questions need to be answered first can it be stopped second ought it to be stopped third if stopping it is either impossible or undesirable what are the appropriate limits that our society must impose on it fourth how should the limits be decided fifth how should the limits be enforced nationally and internationally”
Dyson published a book 'The Sun, the Genome, and the Internet' six years ago describing a vision of green technology enriching villages worldwide and halting rural-to-urban migration; the three components (sun for energy, genome for plant conversion, internet for rural connectivity) are all essential.
“six years ago I published a book with the title the Sun the genome and the internet describing a vision of green technology enriching villages all over the world and halting the migration from villages to cities the three components of the vision are all essential the Sun to provide energy where it's needed the genome to provide plants which can convert sunlight into chemical fuels cheaply and efficiently the Internet to end the intellectual and economic isolation of rural immunity's with all three components in place every village in Africa could enjoy its fair share of the blessings of civilization”
Non-native rabbit species introduced to England only about a thousand years ago had profound effects on ecology by opening glades in forests where flowering plants could flourish, creating greater biodiversity and demonstrating successful human management of non-native species.
“quite recently only about a thousand years ago we introduced rabbits and non-native species which had a profound effect on the ecology rabbits opened glades in the forest where flowering plants now flourish”
Heresy 1: The United States has less than a century left of its turn as the top nation; since the modern nation-state was invented around 1500, successive countries have held the top position for about 150 years each (Spain, France, Britain, America), and America's term began in 1920 so it should end around 2070 due to military, economic, and political overextension.
“my first heresy says the United States has less than a century left of its turn as top nation since the modern nation-state was invented around the Year 1500 a succession of countries have taken turns at being top nation first Spain then France Britain America each term lasts about 150 years ours began in 1920 so it should end about 2070 the reason why each top nations turn comes to an end is that the top nation becomes overextended militarily economically and politically greater and greater efforts are required to maintain the number one position finally the overextension becomes so extreme that the structure collapses”
Genetic engineering could increase biomass growth in topsoil more rapidly than conventional no-till farming by engineering crops to put more biomass into roots.
“if we use genetic engineering to put more biomass into roots we can probably achieve much more rapid growth of topsoil”
A bright future for biotechnology will occur when it follows the computer path of becoming small, domesticated, and decentralized rather than remaining large and centralized; first step was genetically modified tropical fish with brilliant colors in pet stores.
“I see a bright future for the biotechnical industry when it follows the path of the computer industry the path that fun Lyman failed to foresee becoming small and domesticated rather than big and centralized the first step in this direction was already taken recently when genetically modified tropical fish with new and brilliant colors appeared in pet stores the technology to become domesticated the next step is to become user friendly”
Technology can be classified as either green (biology-based) or grey (physics and chemistry-based); green technology gave rise to village communities 10,000 years ago with agriculture and domesticated animals, while grey technology gave rise to empires 5,000 years later with forged metals, vehicles, and weapons.
“I find it convenient to call the two kinds of technology green and grey the adjective Green has been appropriated and abused by various political movements especially in Europe so I need to explain clearly what I have in mind when I speak of green and grey green technology is based on biology grey technology on physics and chemistry roughly speaking green technology is the technology that gave birth to village communities ten thousand years ago starting with the domestication of plants and animals the invention of Agriculture the breeding of goats and sheep and cows and pigs the manufacture of textiles and cheese and wine great technology is the technology that gave birth to and empires 5,000 years later starting with the forging of bronze and iron”
The long-range future (35-200 years) is not predetermined; it is in people's hands; the rules of the world historical game change unpredictably; all current worries and prevailing dogmas will probably be obsolete in less than 35 years.
“the main lesson I'd like for you to take home is that the long range future is not predetermined the future is in your hands the rules of the world historical game changed from decade to decade in unpredictable ways all our fashionable worries and all our prevailing dogmas will probably be obsolete in less than 35 years”
If biotechnology takes over the planet in the next 50 years as computer technology has in the last 50 years, the rules of the climate game will be radically changed.
“if biotechnology takes over the future takes over the planet in the next 50 years as computer technology has taken it over in the last 50 years the rules of the climate game will be radically changed”
Green technology could replace most existing chemical industries and much of mining and manufacturing by doing things more cheaply and cleanly; it could achieve more complete waste recycling and potentially use sunlight instead of fossil fuels as primary energy source.
“the way will then be open for green technology to do more cheaply and more cleanly many of the things that grey technology can do and also to do many things that grey technology has failed to do green technology could replace most of our existing chemical industries and a large part of our mining and manufacturing industries green technology could achieve a more complete recycling of waste products and worn-out machines with great benefit to the environment an economic system based on green technology could come much closer to the goal of sustainability using sunlight instead of fossil fuels as the primary source of energy”
Public distrust of Monsanto for putting pesticide genes in food crops is analogous to distrust of von Neumann for using computers for hydrogen bomb design; genetic engineering will remain unpopular and controversial so long as it remains centralized in large corporations.
“the public distrusts Monsanto because Monsanto likes to put genes for poisonous pesticides into food crops just as we distrusted fun Lyman because fun Diamond liked to use his computer for designing hydrogen bombs it's likely that genetic engineering will remain unpopular and controversial so long as it remains a centralized activity in the hands of large corporations”
Before genetically modified termites and trees can help solve economic and environmental problems, great arguments will rage over possible damage, and many self-described green activists oppose green technology, but if developed carefully and deployed with sensitivity, it is likely to be accepted by most affected people, just as unfamiliar green technologies like milking cows, plowing soil, and fermenting grapes were accepted by ancestors.
“before genetically modified termites and trees can be allowed to help solve our economic and environmental problems great arguments will rage over the possible damage they might do many of the people who call themselves green are passionately opposed to green technology but in the end if the technology is developed carefully and deployed with sensitivity to human feelings it's likely to be accepted by most of the people who will be affected by it just as the equally unnatural and unfamiliar green technologies of milking cows and plowing soils and fermenting grapes were accepted by our ancestors long ago”
Dyson, as an Englishman, was raised in a country with great beauty and rich ecology that is almost entirely man-made: humans replaced uninterrupted and boring forest with artificial landscape of grasslands, fields, and farms with much richer diversity of plant and animal species; this makes him a humanist.
“since I was brought I was born and brought up in England I spent my formative years in a country with great beauty and a rich ecology which is almost entirely man-made the natural ecology of England was uninterrupted and rather boring forest humans replaced the forest with an artificial landscape of grassland and moorland fields and farms with a much richer variety of plant and animal species quite recently only about a thousand years ago we introduced rabbits and non-native species which had a profound effect on the ecology rabbits opened glades in the forest where flowering plants now flourish there is no wilderness in England and yet there is plenty of room for wild flowers and birds and butterflies as well as a high density of humans but that's why I'm a humanist”
Scientists studying climate sit in air-conditioned buildings running computer models rather than putting on winter clothes and measuring what is really happening in swamps and clouds, which is why climate experts end up believing their own models more than they trust empirical observation.
“it's much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models than it is to put on winter clothes and go out and measure what's really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds that's why the climate model experts end up believing their own models”
Engineered termites could be designed to chew up derelict automobiles instead of houses; engineered trees could be designed to convert carbon dioxide and sunlight into liquid fuels instead of cellulose.
“new species of termite could be engineered to chew up derelict automobiles instead of houses and new species of tree with silicon leaves could convert carbon dioxide and sunlight into liquid fuels instead of cellulose”