Real Conversations | The Outlook: McCullough & Neil Howe on the Fourth Turning
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EXCLUSIVE WEBCAST EVENT: World renowned Demographer/ Thinker/ Bestselling author Neil Howe teamed up with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on November 14th for a compelling exploration of our current position in the Fourth Turning and the trajectory that lies ahead. Gain invaluable insights as Howe navigates the complex terrain of our present generational cycle, unraveling the crises and transformative shifts that characterize this pivotal era. If you're interested in understanding where we are and where we're going, don't miss this unique opportunity to listen to the world's foremost expert.
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We are in the fourth turning—a crisis era characterized by simultaneous economic recession, demographic slowdown, geopolitical escalation, institutional collapse, and a dangerous loss of trust in democratic institutions, creating conditions similar to the 1930s where citizens will eventually consolidate behind strong leaders out of necessity rather than choice.
- Economic indicators (foreign-born worker decline, recessionary data, CPI misses driving sector rotation) signal a downturn while fiscal and monetary relief are exhausted, mirroring 1930s conditions.
- Demographic and generational data show rising pessimism (two-thirds believe best days are over), demonization of the other side (61% view civil war as likely), and loss of trust in institutions except Pentagon and Amazon.
- Crisis moments historically force societies to remake constitutions and infrastructure (1780s, Civil War, Great Depression) and elevate unlikely leaders; we are entering the moment when this becomes inevitable.
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This polarization mirrors the 1930s; many Americans of the Greatest Generation were communists or socialists when young and dedicated to overthrowing capitalism, showing a radical edge that went beyond 'apple pie' American values and actually remade the world after WWII.
“the commment turn was was uh many of the greatest Generation Keith were C carrying communist we forget that when they were young um and uh they were dedicated to the overthrow of capalm actually came out in the recent book open the recent movie open Heimer I think people got a sense of the radicalism of that generation as they came out of World War II it wasn't just they were all apple pie and American you know true American values there was a real radical Edge to that generation”
Democracy works best when there is nothing important to talk about (size of sidewalks, sewer pipes), but when people are divided on basic underlying rules of the game and fundamental vision of the future, democracy no longer works because 51% of the vote no longer commands acceptance from the 49%.
“democracy works best when there's nothing important to talk about I mean and and I mean that actually he said democracy works best when all your conversation is the size of sidewalks and and what side the the the sewer pipes are going to be said that's when democracy works really well he said when you're actually divided on the basic underlying rules of the game the basic culture your fundamental vision of the future democracy no longer works”
When people believe in nothing, they will believe in anything; this explains the rise of conspiracy theories, strange rabbit holes, and desperate movements as people seek community and meaning amid institutional collapse and loss of trust.
“and that's why it's a dangerous moment because when people don't trust anything uh or you know they'll trust anything you know what I mean they'll move to anything else and and uh and that's why we've seen the rise and all kinds of strange rabbit holes and conspiracy theories and so forth people are desperate”
At times when the country faces existential threat and potential dissolution, it makes the most permanent and long-term changes to Constitution, public policy, and infrastructure; the 1780s (post-Revolution), 1860s (Civil War), and 1930s (Great Depression) all saw major structural reforms (Constitution, Transcontinental Railroad, Land-Grant system, Social Security) passed during the darkest hours.
“what I find historically it's in those moments when we are facing total you know the possibility of uh ceasing to exist as a nation we're facing the possibility of disaster it's in those moments when we make the most permanent longest term changes in our Constitution and our public policy and our infrastructure um we never make those kinds of changes on a sunny day”
The 1780s (post-Revolutionary War) was probably the worst decade in American history with a steeper fall in living standards than the Great Depression itself, with all wealthy Tories emigrating, cities emptying, and newly independent states imposing tariffs on each other—creating a death-spiral from which the Constitution emerged as rescue.
“probably one of the worst decades in American history with the 1780s um I think historians generally agree that probably represented a standard of living fall that was probably even steeper than the Great Depression of the 30s I mean just complete Devastation you know the the the Tories all immigrated and they were the ones who owned all the wealth they were all the merchants and and basically people were moving away from the cities into the country uh uh these newly independent states were slapping tariffs on each other this country was in a death spiral”
Young people in cities like New York working on Wall Street typically cannot afford their own apartments and rely on parental support to live there, illustrating the affordability crisis and structural economic disadvantage for younger generations.
“Ryan Richie the rooster on our team he says this to me all the time Neil he says we have to tap into what's going on with my people My Generation he's like if you have an apartment in New York you're trying like you're work trying to work on Wall Street it's cuz your parents are paying for it you can't afford that”
Growing tolerance of rule-breaking authority is increasing: opinion polls show more Americans accepting the idea that it is acceptable to have a ruler who breaks the rules if it puts the country back where it needs to be, alongside rising acceptance of violence as justified.
“in that and the growing tolerance of violence I mean we've been asking this question do you think violence has ever Justified that's been going up steadily for the past you know 10 or 15 years again that's been all within the fourth turning ke I mean that's kind of been a fourth turning Trend”
In the 1930s, all societies shifted toward ethnic and cultural nationalism: Stalin began emphasizing 'Mother Russia,' Germans focused on Aryan identity, and similar trends occurred globally; today, Xi Jinping emphasizes Han Chinese identity, Myanmar emphasizes Buddhist roots, Hungary emphasizes 'greater Hungary,' and Turkey emphasizes Turkish identity—showing a return to blood-and-soil nationalism driven by young people seeking durable community.
“everyone is really big into um ethnic cultural roots of national identification right everyone really wanted to get into what was sort of feeling inside why we are together as a community right uh that was huge in the 1930s right everyone began to talk about who they were culturally you know even even the Communists even under Stalin they begin to talk about Mother Russia and the the Germans were all into their you know their Aran and so on we're doing the same thing today Keith uh Xi Jinping has all ended being Han Chinese you know and in in Myanmar they're talking about the getting back to our Buddhist roots in Hungary they're talking about greater Hungary and turkey they're talking about our Turkish”
Global trade as a share of global GDP peaked just before the GFC and has been declining since; the percentage of people living in democracies (not dictatorships or autocratic governments) peaked just before the GFC and has been declining since—both reversals of post-WWII trends parallel to the 1930s pattern.
“the peaking of global trade as a share of global GDP it peaked just before the GFC has been declining ever since the peing of of people around the world living in a democracy rather than a dictatorship or autocratic government peaked just before the G GFC it's been declining ever since”
Market violence and chaos (sense of urgency and adrenaline) must reach certain levels to trigger consolidation behind a leader; historical precedent shows this can happen very quickly (e.g., George W. Bush's approval rating reached 93% within 6 months of 9/11), even though it is not currently visible.
“you have to have some much more violent levels of let's just say let's not get into the violence the the human violence or the deaths associated are embedded therein but Market violence chaos like the reason why the way the way I put it is a sense of urgency in other words it's a little bit of a kind of adrenaline right”
The economy is slowing down globally and the US is the latest to join the slowdown; foreign-born workers have been more than half of all employment growth over the past 18 months, and a sudden topping out and fall in foreign-born worker immigration is a leading indicator of broader economic deceleration.
“the economy slowing down the global economy is slowing down everybody's slowing down right uh and the rest of the world slowed down before the United States did”
Young people (particularly non-college educated) saw large wage gains from the Atlanta wage tracker during the pandemic but those gains are now slowing; the Delta (change) in economic conditions for young people is much larger than for older people, driving greater political discontent and swing toward GOP candidates despite previous Biden support.
“you saw that in the Atlanta wage tracker you just saw young people particularly non- College young people huge increases in in wages uh of course that was undermined a little bit by inflation but they thought this was great and now that's all slowing down so the Delta for them is much larger older people they got their Market return they got their social security”
FDR (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) was not a prodigy like his uncle Theodore Roosevelt; Franklin was regarded as a lightweight with low expectations before becoming Gray Champion during Fourth Turning.
“you know Frank LEL elar Roosevelt was not like Theodore Roosevelt his his U you know third Uncle everyone knew that Theodore Roosevelt was a prodigy of nature from the time he was a young man Franklin was frankly a lightweight and no one really expected much of him”
Americans are demonizing the other side with growing polarization: on the Blue side, people believe fascists and racists have taken over the Republican party and that losing an election means democracy is permanently lost, while on the Red side people believe socialists have taken over the Democratic party and will indoctrinate youth and seize control forever—both sides see zero-sum, no-return scenarios.
“people are demonizing the other side everyone is full of the fear of the other right so if you're on the Blue Zone side you think that you know uh racists and fascists have taken over the Republican party and if they win we'll never get our democracy back I mean ever right so it's just it's endgame for you know all rules anything goes to preent that”
A 10 basis point miss in CPI data causes massive sector rotation and asset allocation decisions despite representing trivial economic noise; investors focused on short-term data swings ignore the full investing cycle and expose themselves to panic and FOMO rather than staying with longer-term frameworks.
“a 10 basis point Miss in CPI equates to some massive rotation and sector you know assd allocation like not not according to us I mean if you stay with the full Investing cycle longer term you're going to be fine you don't have to panic uh or have fomo like days like today”
A crisis event such as America going to war or a major Middle East incident would shift the economy into a completely different zone where the government mobilizes resources and demands everything from the population, unlike the current environment with no consensus at home and no clear forcing action abroad.
“I do think that there is a possibility if a crisis really hits you know America goes to war something happens in the mid East I mean my God we have just multiplying hotspots around the world right now right and if something happens then we go into a completely different zone right that's when the government starts demanding everything you know that's when we start mobilizing that's that's a completely different Zone but right now where there is no consensus at home and where there's no C clear forcing action abroad uh I see as I see the whole economy slowing down”
Young people today cite loneliness and feeling disconnected as biggest complaints about modern life, driving desperate attachment to anything offering community—this explains susceptibility to ethnic nationalism and tribal identity politics.
“one of the single biggest complaints um uh and and of of young people today uh about life in in modern society or in America is loneliness feeling of being disconnected and when people are desperate to feel connected again in a community they'll they'll attach themselves to anything MH”
When people lose trust in institutions, they turn to tribes and to individuals to lead their tribes; at present, people are looking for leaders like Elon Musk, Trump, Gavin Newsom, and others to replace lost institutional trust with personal trust in a leader's personality.
“look at a time when people don't trust institutions they turn to tribes and they turn to individuals to lead their tribes right um and that's what's going on uh Keith um people are looking for an Elon they're looking for a trump they're looking for a I don't know na a Gavin Nome or or somebody right um and to lead them and have their prison personality just replace all the Lost trust that they no longer have in the system”
Long-term pessimism is at historic highs: two-thirds of Americans think the best days are over, believe the gap between rich and poor will widen by 2050, think political infighting will worsen, and fully half now say civil war is fairly or very likely in the next few years—conditions worse than even the post-2008 era.
“the national mood is that I've never seen long-term pessimism as high as it is uh you know two-thirds of America think that our best days are over they think that the Divide between rich and poor will just get much wider by the year 2050 uh they think that political uh infighting will simply get worse”
Young people are suddenly living with their parents again (as in the 1930s); tariffs returned to political prominence around 2016 and have continued regardless of administration (Trump kept many Biden also continued them), showing a reversal of the trade liberalization consensus that dominated post-WWII policy.
“suddenly people began living with their parents in the 30s um anyone recall those Frank CA movies you know with with Jimmy Stewart Living with his parents I we're seeing that again”
NFIB small business confidence index has dropped to lowest levels since the financial crisis and is collapsing at a faster rate, driven partly by Millennials and Gen Z entrepreneurs who started businesses during pandemic realizing those businesses cannot succeed.
“no actually that's the lowest level uh Neil since the great fin Cal crisis and it's crashing there at a faster rate uh...there were a huge number of business startups actually in 2021 2022 a lot of them uh people not just Schedule C businesses right I mean they weren't actually hiring anyone but they plan to hire someone and a lot of those just aren't going anywhere right”
France fell in six weeks to Hitler because it was so internally divided between socialist and fascist factions; European democracies were collapsing to communists or fascists in the 1930s as a result of internal division.
“and this was a bad moment for democracy in the world obviously um and and in other states like France were so internally divided that they you know France fell in six weeks to Hitler uh because it was so divided between socialist and fascist”
Bond yields have fallen because recessionary data has come through across growth and inflation metrics, with disinflationary pressures (particularly in oil demand) indicating economic weakness rather than merely lower inflation.
“to get bond yields down like this you have to have recessionary data which we just did across the board in growth data in October and then again uh even the inflation number when it's disinflationary the the demand for oil is dropping obviously there's some some kind of an issue there”
The book 'The Fourth Turning Is Here' (by Howe) begins with chapter titled 'Winter Is Here,' using John Gardner quote 'History never looks like history when you're living through it,' emphasizing difficulty of recognizing crisis while in it.
“there's a reason why you start chapter one with the with winter is here I mean you're at the moment where all these collisions socially economically militarily uh you're you're at that moment there's a great quote that Neil starts the book with I mean it's it's a I think it's a John Gardner quote I just got to go back and find it um you you probably say that or cite it right off the top of your head but um it's it's like what you're looking at right now yeah history never looks like history when you're living through it”
Cycles have measurable wavelengths and periodicities; every social cycle has a length determined by generations (approximately 20-25 years per generation, the length of a life phase from coming of age to exercising maximum power), creating a predictable 80-100 year seculum with identifiable seasons.
“in that chapter I'm really trying to justify uh the the long-term seculum you know the long-term social cycle which in in my book is the the entire cycle is is is 80 to 100 years and and we're looking at these generational segments or Seasons you know 20 years or so the length of a generation the length of a generation is approximately the length of a phase of life”
Few scholars of long cycles explain what determines the periodicity of cycles; Howe attempts to do so by identifying social and biological governors (phase-of-life changes, generational formation) that create measurable wavelengths and frequency, providing a framework for understanding why cycles have predictable lengths rather than being random.
“there are a lot of people who talk about long Cycles in history very few of them I try to be an exception to that very few of them ever explain what determines the periodicity of such a cycle right they just say well there's this long TR I don't know it's kind of like this”
Fidelity 401k hardship withdrawal rates show people are pulling retirement savings because they have no money left, or because their 60/40 portfolio has blown up; this is direct evidence of household financial distress and erosion of the retirement system's ability to function.
“if you look at the Fidelity 401K hardship rate index it's at that means you're pulling it out because you have no money left otherwise your 6040 portfolio blew up”
A 60/40 portfolio (stocks/bonds) no longer works as an all-weather hedge because the correlation between stocks and bonds has changed; bonds no longer provide negative correlation with stocks, so investors can no longer afford to accept bad bond returns expecting them to offset equity downside.
“I mean you have to have these types of emergent property I mean 6040 bonds and stocks going down at the same time well and that that has to do with the with the change in correlation of stocks and bonds and you know at this point that's what we have you know the uh the the the the the kind of all weather portfolio uh no longer works”
The Federal Reserve has raised rates by the highest delta in 40 years (since Paul Volcker era), and Congress has no real option to expand fiscal stimulus because the CBO is now forecasting enormous unsustainable deficits, meaning there will be no fiscal relief or monetary relief ahead, only economic slowdown.
“this is what happens when the FED lifts its rates uh by the you know by kind of the highest Delta we've seen since Paul ER that was that was what 40 years ago and and and the Congress has no real option uh to expand fiscal stimulus”
Parallels exist between current conditions and Nazi Germany's fourth turning era, including rising anti-Semitism, but there is an important reversal: new right-wing parties in Europe (Marine Le Pen, Georgia Meloni) that historically stoked anti-Semitism now support Israel, primarily because European Muslim populations (who oppose Israel) now constitute roughly half of pro-Hamas demonstrations.
“take a look at Marine leen's party and uh where take a look at Georgia Malone's party take a look at the a take a look at all these new right parties in Europe they are sighting with Israel wasn't that interesting Kei why are they sighting with it these are the same Parties By the way which a century ago ever since the draus affair and ever since late 1890s these were the parties that were stoking anti-Semitism throughout Europe they're now on Israel's side”
Each fourth turning event has had precursors: 9/11 and subsequent wars preceded the current fourth turning; WWI preceded the Great Depression and WWII; the Mexican-American War preceded the Civil War; and in each case, the Nomad archetype (as young officers) first got its taste of action before becoming senior leaders in the fourth turning proper.
“for our current fourth turning we had 911 and the the you know the the the the wars that came after it uh World War II and the Great Depression we had World War I uh for the Cil War we had the Mexican-American War and and in each of those conflicts the um the the what we call the Nomad archetype as young officers you know first got its Taste of action um and uh they become the senior leader uh in the fourth turning proper”
Great champions are not born; they are made by circumstances and history itself, elicited by the moment when people need them and there is an opportunity for them to shine. Historical precedent (Lincoln, FDR) shows that great champions often accomplished virtually nothing of note before being thrust into crisis and exceeding expectations.
“I will stick to my Mantra that I have always stuck to uh in fourth turnings great Champions are made they're not born and they basically are elicited by the circumstances by history itself great Champions come to the four because people need them and because there's an opportunity for them suddenly to shine”
The epilogue of Howe's book contains a passage from the Bhagavad Gita (Krishna and the Chariot) offering advice on right action and duty during moral confusion; this Eastern philosophical framework is presented as his final guidance for navigating the current crisis.
“I do actually at the very end of the book uh in the epilog I actually have a I kind of recount a long passage from the bhaba Gita it's got you know Krishna and The Chariot and so on and giving his advice and that actually is my final advice”
Collective action among current leaders will not happen until the country is pushed to the absolute brink; however, unlike 10 years ago, today one can begin to foresee a moment when that will happen, suggesting the fourth turning's critical transition point is approaching visibility.
“they should all be you know joining together right and coming up with a common story for all of us no way to believe no way but they're not no and it will not happen and we've SE we saw this in American Revolution we saw this in Civil War we saw this in World War II it will not happen until the country is pushed to the absolute Brink only then will they come together but that will be a different moment”
Lower-income households are running out of savings (evidenced by discussion of when pandemic-era stimulus savings would deplete) while simultaneously upper-income households are becoming risk-averse and unwilling to risk what they have left, creating a bifurcated economy with no aggregate demand support.
“there's been a lot of talk about this about about the you know lower income households running out of money you know this was the whole thing since the pandemic when are they going to run out of money well we have two things happening simultaneously you know lower income people running out of money and upper income people no longer want to risk what they've got left you know higher inome people no longer wanting to risk what they have left”
Gen X (nomads/survivors) are now reaching midlife dominance; they were raised as individualists and survivalists who brag about overcoming hardship and make no pretense of locking arms, making them poorly suited to collective action during a crisis despite this being exactly when collective action becomes necessary.
“think of the archetype that's now beginning to reach its point of midlife dominance they're all excers they've been raised as individualists survivalists yeah they brag about the being a drug dealer or some crappy life they got they make no pretense of actually locking arms right um and this is a problem because you have a whole generation of Hard Scrabble survivors who are now at the Pinnacle of American society at a dangerous moment”
The cycle length is now dilating (getting longer) because phases of life are lengthening: it now takes 4-6 years longer for young people to come of age (move out, get full-time career, marry, have kids) than it did 50-60 years ago, and the age of first political election and retirement from senior leadership have both risen correspondingly.
“I think that the cycle is actually now dilating Ki and actually getting a little bit longer these turnings are actually becoming slightly longer is because phases of Life are getting longer uh we've seen a very uh uh abrupt lengthening in the last several decades of the length of time required for young people to fully come of age as an adult I don't care how you want to measure it uh by you know getting out from living with your parents getting a full-time career job getting married having kids it doesn't matter it's gone up by four five six years”
Millennials show a huge rise in social ethics (ESG investment, corporate responsibility concerns) driven largely by guilt among Millennials with bequest (inherited wealth); unlike X-ers and Boomers who got rich by founding new companies, most late-wave Millennials' hope is to get credentials to be hired by companies like Apple rather than found new ones.
“it's leading interestingly keate to a huge rise in this what I call the Social e ethic among Millennials this idea that we need equality and I'll tell you why the biggest rise in inequality among Millennials is from bequest think of that think of that and it's all the young people with bequest who feel so guilty they want to invest in ESG”
Peter Turchin's framework identifies three tiers: the state, the elites, and the rest of us; from the perspective of 'the rest of us' (60% of Americans with no money left, 99% of companies represented in small business surveys), elite wealth concentration and asset protection are not meaningful when 99% of the people/businesses are struggling.
“Peter turchin says you know there's the state there's the elites and then there's the rest of us I mean I stand with the rest of us I mean I'm not going to look at that small business survey which represents 99% of companies in America or look at any of the 60% of Americans who have no money left and say you guys don't count cuz schwartzman's got x amount in his savings account”
Federal Reserve and other democratic institutions (Congress, media) retain some residual trust only because they are insulated from direct democracy; Congress and media are most distrusted because they directly serve public demands and raise funding/subscriptions through manipulation.
“and no one people have contempt for these people today I mean again there's no trust at all I mean you look at levels of trust in and I will say this and and this may sound like a really dark comment but to the extent that the FED is not a democratic body it probably retains a little bit of trust I'm meaning that at the very bottom is Congress and the media which are which are just for public attent you know they'll they'll say anything or do anything that people want them to say right um because that's how they all get paid and that's how they all raise money or or or raise subscriptions”
Discipline and rigor in any chosen craft, pursued with absolute seriousness, will set a person up for success in any future endeavor, even more than the specific field chosen; this principle applies to younger people uncertain about their career path.
“and my advice to them is it doesn't matter what you go into if you just choose anything but do it with absolute rigor and discipline and try to come out the other side of whatever it is you're practicing and trally accomplishment it will set you up for success in anything you decide to do it doesn't make any difference what you choose I mean I almost mean that literally you could go out and just be the best brick layer in the world and I guarantee you if you truly work on that it will transform you”
Stoicism and task-oriented discipline—staying in your lane and zone, measuring and mapping cycles correctly without listening to other people's characterizations—is a response to contemporary noise and divisiveness, though it may not constitute a full leadership solution.
“I mean it would be the I guess people would put it in the category of stoicism maybe uh where you know nothing phases you you're task oriented you do it you do it you do it and it's just um I mean that's one way to get rid of all the emotional baggage and all the noise of US versus them and the hate versus the trust it's it's it's to just stay in your lane stay in your Zone”
Advance in understanding cycles requires maintaining discipline in measurement, reading primary data rather than accepting others' characterizations, and doing work rigorously ('do it right, as Arnold Schwarzenegger would say') rather than taking shortcuts.
“every day get up at 4:30 in the morning write it down study it with discipline measure and map the cycle properly don't listen to or other people's characterizations of numbers that are already on the page like do it right and that's a hard job and it's a hard if you want to do hard things which is another favorite book of Mine by Steve Magnus”
Private equity and commercial real estate are much larger sectors now than they were historically but are flying under the radar because they are not marked-to-market like publicly traded firms; all parties are hoping conditions change within 6-18 months to allow debt refinancing before these assets must be valued at current market rates.
“the two sectors that are that are the that are the uh uh that are flying under the radar right now which are much larger than they were before uh is is private equity and Commercial Real Estate and none of them are priced to Market we have no idea how they're doing I mean it's very different than for the you know all these publicly traded firms right and and right now I think they're just all praying you know um I hope everything changes in the next you know six you know in next six to 18 months right so that I can roll over my debt”
The only institutions Americans still trust are the Pentagon and Amazon, indicating that faith in democratic, civic, and media institutions has collapsed to the point where only military and corporate technocratic institutions retain legitimacy.
“we no longer trust any of the democratic institutions the only institutions we still trust are the Pentagon and Amazon so why not just let them take over I I mean I mean seriously just let them make the decisions”
Peter Turchin's analytical framework distinguishes state, elites, and rest of us as three structural units in society; Keith aligns with 'rest of us' rather than elite interests.
“and as Peter turchin says you know there's the state there's the elites and then there's the rest of us I mean I stand with the rest of us”
Elite concentration in the stock market (seven large-cap stocks) and private equity/real estate concentration mirrors historical power concentration before fourth turning crises; the transmission mechanism to darkness is the eventual loss of purchasing power/market access that reduces the utility of these concentrated assets.
“there's one thing to have the power in all of the in the US Equity Market the private Equity Market Etc there's another thing to get all these people in their 401ks to believe that that is sustainable in now seven stocks”
Wall Street celebrated recessionary labor data (lower employment expectations) because it removes rate-cut pressure on the Fed, allowing the stock market to rally—the opposite of what would normally be expected, showing perverse alignment of bad macro conditions with equity market preferences.
“that's all part of the story of what all these analysts talking about you know declining uh you know declining uh uh uh uh term premium on the stock you know and that's been the big phrase been I don't know last three or four weeks then bandied around by the FED but they need it to be true again I mean they being an entire generation of investors I mean that is today's celebration that was by the way the celebration of having recessionary labor data hey they're about to lose their job that's Great Wall Street says because I get my cowbell back”
NFIB index composition is changing: it is no longer dominated by older, typically Trump-supporting hardware store owners but now includes more younger entrepreneurs, indicating broader demographic representation in small business sentiment.
“five or 10 years ago you looked at that nfib index and you always thought well that's kind of your older you know kinly Trump voter you know you're kind of your older hardware store owner right um and no it it actually is changing a little bit and it's composition”
Gen X friends of McCulla quickly reject potential leaders (DeSantis, Vance) without committing, showing behavioral pattern of selective evaluation without consolidation around a leader—suggesting leadership crystallization hasn't occurred yet.
“I have friends I'm not Republican or Democrat as you know but I live in a very Democratic state in Connecticut and so I have a lot of friends on that side I have a lot of friends on the other side on the Republican party that's how they they've dealt with it it's like oh I could like the santis NOP oh I could like vet nope like they they're so quick to I could but then to pull back and and I'm talking about my friends who are all Gen xers M mainly”
Analysts have recently emphasized declining term premium in stocks as a major narrative, and the Fed would prefer this to be true again (requiring stable inflation expectations and low real rates), but the structural conditions that created term premium have shifted.
“that's part of the story of what all these analysts talking about you know declining uh you know declining uh uh uh uh term premium on the stock you know and that's been the big phrase been I don't know last three or four weeks then bandied around by the FED but they need it to be true again I mean they being an entire generation of investors I mean that is today's celebration”
Keith McCulla watches data obsessively and prioritizes long-term demographic/generational cycles over short-term noise, setting him apart as someone who understands that 10-basis-point CPI misses shouldn't drive sector rotation.
“there's no one who can contextualize the cycle within long-term Cycles across countries across Generations like Neil how but he also he's on top of every data point like so today's like guys can you show today's U nfib survey”
Howe put extensive work and time into writing 'The Fourth Turning is Here' book, and people are getting educated from it.
“I know you know given uh I know what your workflow looks like like how much of yourself you put into that book”
McCulla and Howe have not been able to stay to exactly 60 minutes in previous conversations, but in this instance they did stick to 60 minutes.
“I do think that you and I have ever stuck uh right to 60 minutes but we're going to do it like we just did it you just did it”