Will AI Take Your Job? AI Automation Explained
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Progress has an accelerating rate of change due to the compounding effect of these technologies, in which they will enable countless more from 3D printing, autonomous vehicles, blockchain, batteries, remote surgeries, virtual and augmented reality, robotics – the list can go on and on.
These devices in turn will lead to mass changes in society from energy generation, monetary systems, space colonization and much more! All these topics and then some will be covered in videos of their own in the future.
In this video we will be discussing automation, which is often confused with being the ‘technological revolution’ in it of itself as it is what the mainstream focuses on, and for good reason, as how we handle automation will determine the trajectory or collective future takes.
00:00 Intro 01:30 Progress Traps 03:50 Automation 11:51 Retraining 13:55 The Gig Economy
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Sources ➤
[1]Diamandis, Peter. Kotler, Steven. Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think, 2012. [2]Pinker, Steven. Enlightenment Now. 2018. [3]Wright, Ronald. A Short History of Progress. 2004. [4]https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy.aspx & http://www.foodsystemprimer.org/food-production/industrialization-of-agriculture/ [5]https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/11/21/why-trumps-factory-job-promises-wont-pan-out-in-one-chart/ & https://www.ft.com/content/dec677c0-b7e6-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62 [6]https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Advanced%20Electronics/Our%20Insights/Growth%20dynamics%20in%20industrial%20robotics/Industrial-robotics-Insights-into-the-sectors-future-growth-dynamics.ashx & https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/2240363/Report%20-%20How%20Robots%20Change%20the%20World.pdf [7]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42170100 [8]https://public.tableau.com/profile/mckinsey.analytics#!/vizhome/InternationalAutomation/WhereMachinesCanReplaceHumans [9]Roose, Kevin. Futureproof. 2021. [10]https://time.com/5876604/machines-jobs-coronavirus/ [11]https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-great-acceleration [12]https://startupsanonymous.com/blog/gig-economy-statistics/ [13]https://www.epi.org/publication/uber-and-the-labor-market-uber-drivers-compensation-wages-and-the-scale-of-uber-and-the-gig-economy/ [14]https://www.govtech.com/opinion/The-US-Is-Unprepared-for-Workforce-Automation-Opinion.html [A1]https://www.bvp.com/assets/media/bessemer-state-of-the-cloud-2020.pdf\ [A2]https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth [A3]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV [A4]https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/Digital%20Disruption/Harnessing%20automation%20for%20a%20future%20that%20works/MGI-A-future-that-works-Executive-summary.ashx [A5]https://www.statista.com/statistics/921593/gig-economy-number-of-freelancers-us/ [A6]https://public.tableau.com/profile/ips.inequality/ & https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/chart/
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Automation driven by the convergence of computing, connectivity, big data, and AI represents a progress trap that threatens massive job displacement across all sectors by 2030, requiring proactive solutions like retraining, platform cooperatives, and universal basic income to prevent societal collapse.
- Unlike past industrial revolutions that displaced muscle labor but created new jobs, current automation replaces cognitive work paired with physical automation, threatening both blue-collar and white-collar employment simultaneously
- Projections show 800 million to 1 billion jobs globally at risk by 2030, with potential US unemployment reaching 25-50%, compared to 25% during the Great Depression
- Current pandemic has accelerated automation adoption by a decade, creating a K-shaped recovery that concentrates wealth gains among tech companies while permanently displacing lower-wage workers
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A progress trap is a solution to a problem that initially succeeds but over time creates conditions and problems worse than the original problem, exemplified by paleolithic hunters who vastly increased mammoth kills by herding entire herds off cliffs, lived well temporarily, then starved.
“a progress trap is a solution to a problem that at first is successful but in time can create conditions and problems that are worse than the original a powerful metaphor to highlight this is that of paleolithic hunters who by learning how to kill two mammoths instead of one had made progress those who learned how to kill 200 by driving a whole herd off a cliff had made too much they lived high for a while and then starved”
An innovation in how gig economy and workers can benefit from technological change is platform cooperatives, which already generate more than 2.36 trillion dollars in revenue globally.
“one innovation in how we can rethink the gig economy and workers can still benefit from technological change is called a platform co-op which already generates more than 2.36 trillion dollars in revenue across the globe”
Fermondo is a German digital selling platform that operates like eBay except the sellers on the platform are also its owners, exemplifying platform cooperative model.
“there are abundant models for this including fermondo a german digital selling platform that operates much like ebay except the sellers on the platform are also its owners”
Global population growth is now slowing, which means by extension fewer workers will be needed, adding to the challenge of automation-driven job displacement.
“another factor that adds fuel to the fire is that global population growth is now slowing so by extension less workers will be needed”
What might be considered high pay in one part of the world like Nairobi or Thailand could barely be minimum wage in another like England or USA, creating wage compression and arbitrage opportunities that undermine worker protections.
“what might be considered a high rate of pay in one part of the world say nairobi or thailand could barely be scratching the minimum wage in another say england or the usa”
The combination of K-shaped recovery, automation job losses, and civil unrest following pandemic represents an early warning of the automation progress trap, with civil unrest and issues continuing to increase if automation remains unaddressed.
“we view this as an early warning of the automation progress trap we now face and as automation moves across society if unaddressed civil unrest and other such issues will only continue to increase”
A growing class of 'working poor' individuals work full-time hours but earn wages so low that they cannot break out of poverty due to living expenses and bills.
“the majority of these lost jobs are held by a growing class of the population referred to as a working poor individuals who work full-time hours but because their wages are so low they cannot break out of poverty due to living expenses bills and so on”
From 2000 to 2010 the US lost approximately 5.6 million manufacturing jobs, with 85 percent of those losses attributable to technological change and automation rather than outsourcing or other factors.
“from 2000 to 2010 the us lost about 5.6 million manufacturing jobs with 85 percent of those losses attributable to technological change more specifically automation”
The internet has democratized access to knowledge, thereby giving everyone the ability to learn any skill from anywhere, eliminating geographic and institutional barriers to education.
“the internet has democratized access to knowledge thereby giving everyone the ability to learn any skill from anywhere”
Gig work and its growing prevalence should serve as a buffer and fallback as automation progresses; in the USA, 36 percent reported working as freelancer/gig worker in 2019, with 53 percent of people aged 18-34 reporting gig work as primary income source.
“this type of gig work and its growing prevalence should serve as a buffer and fallback as automation progresses and in many cases has in the usa 36 percent of the country reported working as a freelancer gig worker in 2019 with 53 of people between 18 and 34 reporting gig work as our primary source of income”
Beyond direct job displacement from technological automation, cascading effects must be considered: with fewer human truckers on the road, less hospitality and retail jobs would be needed for highway hotels, motels, fast food restaurants, and other support services.
“in addition to the lost jobs caused directly by technological automation we must also consider the cascade effects for instance with less human truckers on the road less hospitality and retail jobs would be needed in the form of highway hotels and motels fast food and restaurants”
Cognitive work replacement by machines has been occurring for decades in slower fashion as computing improved; robotics employment shows the trend: in 1980 there were 25 people employed per 1 million dollars in manufacturing output, declining to 5 people by 2018.
“this has been happening for decades all be it in a slower fashion as computing technology has improved and thus fields such as robotics in 1980 25 people were employed for every 1 million dollars in manufacturing output as of 2018 that number is now down to 5 people”
During the pandemic, tech stock valuations and affluent individual net worth increased substantially while millions were losing livelihoods, illustrating the K-shaped recovery where tech/automation winners gain while everyone else suffers.
“we can see proof of this looking at the valuation of tech stocks and net worth of affluent individuals during the same time period where millions are losing their livelihoods”
AI has been promoted to middle management in various industries from service to banking and food prep, where software now performs supervisory work of training workers, monitoring quality, and reviewing performance.
“in many of today's workplaces ai has even been promoted to middle management and industries from service to banking and food prep software now does a supervisory work of training workers monitoring quality and reviewing performance”
OpenAI's GPT-3 language learning model can produce articles that look like they were written by journalists and are appearing with increasing frequency across the web, putting journalism jobs at risk.
“for instance openai's language learning model gpt3 which can produce articles that look like they were written by a journalist and are starting to be seen with increasing frequency across the web”
The current pandemic has greatly accelerated the automation transition, compressing what would have taken a decade into the course of a year.
“the current pandemic has greatly accelerated the automation transition what would have taken a decade to play out has now happened over the course of a year”
Jobs created by computers themselves are being replaced by robotic process automation (RPA), pieces of software sometimes called 'boomer removers' because they displace workers at greater speed in common office jobs like data entry, invoice generation, expense reports, and payroll.
“even jobs created due to computers in the first place are being replaced due to robotic process automation rpas pieces of software more morbidly referred to as boomer removers because they are replacing at greater speed in many common office jobs such as data entry invoice generation expense reports payroll”
The foundational pillars of the current technological revolution are computing, global connectivity, big data, and AI, from which countless new technologies will emerge including 3D printing, autonomous vehicles, blockchain, batteries, remote surgeries, VR/AR, robotics, and others.
“there are four foundational technologies that serve as the groundwork for new technologies to be built off of the pillars of the technological revolution computing global connectivity big data and ai there are numerous ways these core pillars will interact with one another which will lead to countless technologies devices and knowledge gained from 3d printing autonomous vehicles blockchain batteries remote surgeries virtual and augmented reality robotics”
Due to rapid growth in gig employment and how new this type of work is, there are many valid concerns to be addressed regarding worker protections and economic sustainability.
“however due to this rapid growth in gig employment and how new this type of work is there are many valid concerns to be addressed”
Companies like Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, and Instacart have lobbied to classify gig workers as independent contractors rather than employees, avoiding minimum wage, retirement plans, education plans, and health care coverage obligations.
“these same companies have lobbied to make it so they don't have to classify their gig workers as employees such as with prop 22 in california this means they still don't have to pay minimum wage and additionally don't have to provide retirement plans education plans health care coverage”
Employee retraining, upskilling, and education represents one of the most obvious solutions to the automation conundrum, deployed as a strategy in past revolutions where people were trained to become machine operators.
“one of the most obvious solutions to the automation conundrum is employee retraining upskilling and education which has been a strategy deployed in past revolutions”
Companies like Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, and Instacart show wage pressure in gig economy: after accounting for insurance, vehicle wear and tear, and other expenses, drivers often make less than minimum wage, with some reports indicating up to 75 percent of drivers earn below minimum wage.
“another instance this can be seen in is with companies like uber lyft doordash and instacart in which after insurance wear and tear on your vehicle and more often drivers end up making less than minimum wage with some reports indicating that up to 75 of drivers are making below minimum wage”
If an individual is not interested in retraining in STEM subjects and is unable to find a job in their field of interest due to automation, they face the prospect of being stuck in the gig economy.
“so then if an individual is not interested in retraining or educating in stem subjects and are unable to find a job in the field they are interested in are they forever stuck in the gig economy”
Minimum wage laws are antiquated and cannot adequately address the complexity of global gig economy competition across jurisdictions with vastly different pay expectations and living costs.
“in many cases minimum wage laws are antiquated and cannot deal with the complexity of this problem”
Universal basic income is the most popular and most likely to be implemented long-term solution to the automation conundrum, to be extensively covered in the next video in the technological revolution series.
“luckily long-term solutions do exist with the most popular and most likely to be implemented being a universal basic income a topic which we will extensively cover in the next video in this technological revolution series”
Wealth inequality will worsen as automation profits accrue to executives and shareholders rather than to society, because to a certain degree wealth is earned but after that point it does not correlate to what individuals produce or give back to society.
“while to a certain degree wealth is earned after a certain point it does not correlate to what an individual produces or gives back to society and these levels of wealth inequality will only get worse as profits from automation productivity go to executives and shareholders and not to the society that enable them”
As mechanized industrialization and electrification freed up physical labor, an increasing number of individuals could pursue higher education, leading to emergence of STEM fields and creation of new knowledge and technologies, particularly electronics and computing.
“just as in the agricultural revolution where not every member of society had to be a hunter-gatherer so too in machines and electricity freeing up physical labor could an increasing number of individuals pursue a higher education leading to the birth of many of what we now call the stem fields and thereby the acquisition of new knowledge and emergence of new technologies arguably the most important of which was electronics and computing technology”
Many of the pandemic job losses impacted workers that need jobs most—those in the lower end of the wage spectrum, whose jobs are dissipating as autonomous robots can work 24/7 with no lunch, bathroom breaks, lights, or even air conditioning.
“unfortunately many of these lost jobs impact the workers that need it the most in the lower end of the wage spectrum these jobs are dissipating as autonomous robots are able to work 24 7 with no lunch or bathroom breaks lights or even ac”
Industrial robotics growth is accelerating and on a projected track to eliminate another 20 million manufacturing jobs globally by 2030.
“growth in industrial robotics is increasing year over year at an accelerated rate and we are currently on a projected track on the low end to lose another 20 million manufacturing jobs globally by 2030”
During the Great Depression unemployment reached 25 percent; with automation by 2030, US unemployment could range from 25 percent at minimum to upwards of 50 percent.
“during the great depression the unemployment rate was 25 and with automation by 2030 we can be looking at rates ranging from 25 at a minimum to upwards of 50 percent”
Not everyone will want to focus on becoming a programmer or other STEM professional, nor should they, because society's richness depends on diverse skill sets and progress should enable people to pursue what they are truly passionate about.
“it is unlikely that everyone will want to just focus on becoming a programmer or another stem job role nor should they what makes a society rich is a diverse set of skills and the key point of progress is that it allows people to pursue what they are truly passionate about”
Automation of manufacturing jobs in the rust belt created anger that was directed toward immigrants, and largely contributed to the election of Trump and related political consequences.
“due to automation and therefore manufacturing job losses in the rust belt of america that anger was taken directed towards immigrants and in large part led to the election of trump”
Platform cooperatives are illustrated by imagining if Uber drivers owned significant equity in the company, or if Spotify was partly owned by the musicians whose music it streams.
“what are these cooperatives thank uber if drivers own significant equity in the company think spotify if the music streaming service was in part owned by its musicians”
Rather than worrying about killer droids and kamikaze drones, the real danger comes from mundane, mediocre apps and services that allow companies to process payroll 20% more efficiently or determine benefits eligibility with fewer human case workers, which have massive aggregate displacement impact.
“we may want to stop worrying about killer droids and kamikaze drones and instead start worrying about the mundane mediocre apps and services that allow companies to process payroll 20 more efficiently or determine benefits eligibility with fewer human case workers”
Progress can be objectively defined as increases in measurable human welfare dimensions including life over death, health over sickness, abundance over poverty, peace over war, safety over danger, freedom over tyranny, equal rights over discrimination, literacy over illiteracy, knowledge over ignorance, intelligence over dullness, happiness over misery, and opportunities for family, culture and nature over drudgery and monotony.
“most people agree that life is better than death health is better than sickness substance is better than hunger abundance is better than poverty peace is better than war safety is better than danger freedom is better than tyranny equal rights are better than bigotry and discrimination literacy is better than illiteracy knowledge is better than ignorance intelligence is better than dull witness happiness is better than misery opportunities to enjoy family friends culture and nature are better than drudgery and monotony all these things can be measured and if they have increased over time that is progress”
Progress for its own sake is a wrong approach; society must be thoughtful about how it applies progress to avoid traps, and must be able to respond quickly when traps are discovered.
“what these problems teach us is that progress for the sake of progress is a wrong approach to take and we must be aware of the potential traps to avoid or be able to respond to them quickly as we discover them”
Technological skills such as programming must be taught from a young age in schools to prepare children for the new job market shaped by automation.
“it is imperative that these technological skills such as programming are taught from a young age in schools to prepare children for the new job market”
Platform cooperatives will go a long way in solving problems of wealth inequality by ensuring that workers benefit from automation productivity they enable, though they alone cannot be complete solution without other initiatives and policies.
“they will also go a long way in solving problems such as wealth inequality while to a certain degree wealth is earned after a certain point it does not correlate to what an individual produces or gives back to society and these levels of wealth inequality will only get worse as profits from automation productivity go to executives and shareholders and not to the society that enable them platform co-ops are one way to create a fairer more equitable market and solve the problems of the gig economy however without other initiatives and policies implemented this only serves as a short-term solution to the automation conundrum”
Humanity is entering a period of radical technological transformation driven by exponential progress from compounding technological advancement, which will enable provision of goods and services once reserved for the wealthy to all who need or desire them within a generation.
“humanity is once again entering a period of radical transformation in which technology has potential to significantly raise the basic standards of living for every man woman and child on the planet within a generation we will be able to provide goods and services once reserved for the wealthy few to any and all who need them or desire them”
Automation is targeting every industry including agriculture, construction, logistics, retail, and food service through automated warehouses, autonomous vehicles, robotic farming, additive construction, and self-service systems.
“from automated warehouses automated cooks autonomous logistics robotic vertical farming additive construction self-service concierges and so on automation is coming for every industry”
Job displacement caused by technological change has been occurring for hundreds of years, traceable to the 18th century industrial revolution where mechanized industrialization began reshaping society through textile and agricultural industries.
“job displacement caused by technological change while seeming like a modern concept has been happening for hundreds of years and can be traced back to the 18th century the beginnings of the industrial revolution in which mechanized industrialization began to reshape society as we have previously discussed this first impacted the textile and agricultural industries”
The gig economy is characterized by prevalence of short-term contracts and freelance work as opposed to permanent jobs, with freelancers and independent contractors not being new but taking on new extremes through internet platforms.
“the gig economy refers to a labor market characterized by the prevalence of short-term contracts and freelance work as opposed to permanent jobs now the concept of freelancers and independent contractors isn't anything new from marketers programmers graphic design etc due to the democratization of the internet and maturation of online platforms gig work takes this concept to a new extreme”
Gig work can cover wide array of jobs across platforms like Fiverr and Upwork including music production, voiceovers, business consultation, YouTube video creation, music on Spotify, Uber driving, and pet sitting on Rover.
“gig work takes this concept to a new extreme and can cover a wide array of jobs as seen on platforms such as fiverr or upwork from music production voiceovers and business consultation to making videos on youtube putting music on spotify driving for uber walking pets on rover”
Atomic physics represents a progress trap: the study of atoms led to scientific knowledge but also enabled the creation of atomic bombs with catastrophic destructive potential.
“the same logic can apply to various technologies such as the study of the atom leading to the atomic bomb”
Hyper-connectivity of modern society represents a progress trap: while connecting people globally is beneficial, it has created severe mental health problems as a negative consequence.
“our hyper-connected society leading to horizon mental health problems”