Why Gold Will Dominate in 2025, Dollar Collapse | Alasdair Macleod

China's economy is in better shape than Western journalists report, and with Russia and Asian hegemons through BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, there is a larger world (by purchasing power and population) that will thrive while the West falls apart.

“Chinese economy is actually in better shape than uh you would believe from uh Western journalists”

We are now in the largest credit bubble in recorded history, and when this one collapses it will take out the currencies as well

“we're now uh in the largest credit bubble in history in recorded history and when this one collapses is going to take out the currencies as well”

President Hoover, contrary to popular narrative, was actually a big interventionist who stuck his oar into everything before Roosevelt, so the New Deal was a continuation of government intervention rather than a revolutionary change

“uh President Hoover uh who preceded Roosevelt was actually a big big interventionist he stuck his or into everything so the idea that this new deal was government is going to you know rescue the private sector actually was already being done by his predecessor”

The dot-com bubble peak in 2000 was characterized by frenetic activity with bankers unable to answer phones because they were so overwhelmed with buyers, dealmakers coming out of the woodwork, and the extraordinary madness that Charles Mackay described in his book on bubbles

“I remember um trying to get hold of by you know my dealers back in London you couldn't get hold of them you just you know they were so busy with Buyers coming in and I was also doing Corporate Finance the people who were coming out of the woodwork trying to you know get get themselves listed in all the rest of it it was frenetic it was just like Charles maai described the top of every bubble that was the year 2000 the beginning of 2000”

Central banks are insolvent in the sense that their debts exceed their equity many times over; the ECB in particular cannot be recapitalized because it requires agreement across multiple jurisdictions at the political level

“you've got central banks which are insolvent I'm not talking with commercial Banks the central banks are insolvent uh they're insolvent in the sense that uh they their their debts uh exceed their Equity many times over many many times over um now that can be recapitalized but you can't recapitalize the ECB I mean that's that's virtually a no no um because it's a two-step process and it requires agreement in multiple jurisdictions uh at the political level”

Central banks themselves, particularly the ECB, are technically insolvent because their debts exceed their equity by many multiples, and the ECB cannot be recapitalized because it requires agreement across multiple sovereigns, making the Euro fragile

“you've got what have we got in 2025 we've got the potential for uh these debt traps really to be r on uh major currencies uh or the governments that are responsible for major currencies um you've got central banks which are insolvent I'm not talking with commercial Banks the central banks are insolvent uh they're insolvent in the sense that uh they their their debts uh exceed their Equity many times over many many times over um now that can be recapitalized but you can't recapitalize the ECB I mean that's that's virtually a no no um because it's a two-step process and it requires agreement in multiple jurisdictions uh at the political level so um you know I just can't see that happening so the the Euro you know could be on the way out uh that's a very serious statement”

Gold is not rising in price; rather, fiat currencies are collapsing in purchasing power, and when analyzed through the lens of currency debasement rather than speculative demand, gold's strength reflects currency weakness not gold appreciation

“it's not gold going up so much um it's more a question of currencies going down um this idea that when you get a a recession um inflation disappears is is is complete nonsense”

Foreigners own approximately $32 trillion in dollars and dollar-denominated financial assets, plus another roughly $80 trillion in temporary positions in foreign exchange markets according to the Bank for International Settlements, making total foreign exposure to a collapsing dollar absolutely huge

“the foreigners are roughly $ 32 trillion of dollars and financial Assets denominated in dollars so you know they're up to their necks in this and not only that but they're all the sort of if you like the temporary POS itions that occur in the foreign exchange markets which according to the bank of international settlements adds another 80 trillion or something to the to to the foreign uh owned total”

The Fed's statement on policy futures indicates it understands it cannot cut rates as much as the market expects, and equities will crash when the market realizes this disconnect.

“when the market understands this you will find that equities are wildly overvalued on any historic basis compared with the yield in us treasuries and I've put out a chart on this before we are currently I mean equities are twice as overvalued compared with bonds as they were in the dot bubble”

The only G7 countries with debt-to-GDP ratios below 100% are Germany at 62% and Canada, both of which are rapidly deteriorating.

“the only G7 countries which don't have debt gdps of over 100% and Germany which is where you are at the moment 62% yeah and uh and Canada um Canada's rapidly going downhill”

Diocletian's Edict of Maximum Prices from 305 AD contained prices of commodities that are equivalent in gold terms to modern prices, demonstrating that gold's relative value to real goods is stable over millennia

“I had a look at dian's Edict of Maximum prices which was 305 ad round about give or take a year and there quite a lot of things in there which are priced exactly the same as they are today in Gold you know because you you know he he put in the relationship between gold and silver uh which incidentally was was a gold silver ratio of 12 for those that are interested”

Trump does not have the mandate that Milei had in Argentina to implement structural fiscal reform; this is why American policies will likely lead to higher budget deficits despite DOGE efforts

“and I would say this very very firmly and that is that uh Trump does not have the Mandate that Miller had when he went when he was elected to do what he's done so um I just I don't see I don't see um uh uh America achieving anything like that and if anything uh American policies I think in in the short term I mean over the next one two possibly even three years would lead to higher budget deficits not government spending in Greater control”

US Treasury 10-year yields will break through 5% as bond vigilantes lose confidence; yields could go considerably higher and could reach 20-30% in an uncontrolled scenario

“you call them Bond vigilantes um it's almost it sort of implies that there are people U you know deliberately acting in concert to uh um uh determine the levels at which government funding take place no you got a lot of scared people out there and they're going to be a lot more scared and they're not going to buy it that is the problem and I think that you know 5% uh yield on the 10year US Treasury is first stop after that I see it going considerably higher and I don't see how it can stop”

Syria's collapse in 2024 was orchestrated by Americans and British intelligence primarily to support Israeli interests, with Americans stealing Syrian oil and cutting off Hezbollah from Iran supply, and the aftermath will be a tribalistic and religious mess similar to Libya

“the motivation I think um is Israel um the Americans support Israel uh the Americans have been taking uh oil out of Syria I mean as if it was their own they've been stealing the oil if you like from the state uh and that has deprived that deprived Assad of um of revenues um so the country has been limping along basically financially broken uh for the last seven eight years 10 years whatever”

Central banks and foreign holders of US treasuries including China and Japan are net sellers of dollars and net buyers of gold because they can see the debt trap and currency collapse coming

“you've already got the two largest uh foreign um holders of us treasuries uh uh turning sellers I mean you got China isn't buying anymore she's she's easing her position out she's actually selling dollars to buy gold uh and uh the Japanese institutions are in exactly the same position they've got losses if you like on their dollar Investments”

Unlike the 1930s Great Depression, the current situation differs in that the dollar is completely fiat (not on gold standard), which means that when confidence in the dollar collapses, the devaluation will occur in the market rather than by government decree, and the devaluation could exceed the 40% that occurred in 1934.

“the big the big difference was that the dollar was on a gold standard um you know at $20.67 to the Ounce uh this time uh we are completely feared so the devaluation which occurred in 34 when the dollar was uh devalued by 40% it's going to happen in the market and I don't think it'll stop at 40% but anyway that's that's that's another topic”

Russia is not fighting Israel vs. Russia in Syria but rather America is supporting Israel to advance Israeli and broader Western geopolitical interests in the Middle East; the conflict is fundamentally about Western imperial strategy, not a proxy war between superpowers.

“I don't think so um I mean obviously there are Russian interest there which uh the Americans will try and get rid of um you know particularly the port facilities in the in the Mediterranean um but I don't see this as something which is um you know America versus Russia I rarely think this is America supporting Israel um I think it's actually no more complex than that and of course what they've done is they've cut Hezbollah off from from Iran the next thing and the Deep state will will push for this uh because this is is what Israel wants what Israel say wants the Deep State goes for”

Foreigners own approximately $32 trillion in dollar-denominated assets and financial instruments, plus another $80 trillion in temporary FX positions per Bank for International Settlements, totaling massive exposure to dollar collapse.

“the foreigners are roughly $ 32 trillion of dollars and financial Assets denominated in dollars so you know they're up to their necks in this and not only that but they're all the sort of if you like the temporary POS itions that occur in the foreign exchange markets which according to the bank of international settlements adds another 80 trillion or something to the to the foreign uh owned total”

US Treasury yields will rise to at least 5% and likely much higher because foreign buyers are fleeing, which will pop the equity bubble and create a cascade of defaults as collateral values collapse

“I think that you know 5% uh yield on the 10year US Treasury is first stop after that I see it going considerably higher and I don't see how it can stop because of the debt trap”

The euro could be on the way out as a currency because the ECB cannot be recapitalized

“so um you know I just can't see that happening so the the Euro you know could be on the way out uh that's a very serious statement”

Money supply contracted by 40% during the Great Depression, but the real catalyst for the slump was Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which destroyed international trade

“I mean Hoover signed the spoot Hy Tariff Act into law and there is no doubt if you look at the trade history and all the rest of it in the 1930s that that was the uh big big reason for the slump now we also know that you know money supply contracted by 40% but that was Banks and everything else going bust as a result of the mismanagement first by Hoover and then by uh uh ruselt uh of the economic situation but the real Catalyst in this of course was smooth Hy”

Every previous credit bubble since the 1980s has been stopped from popping by pushing interest rates down hard to the point where the zombies sigh of relief and continue being zombies, resulting in accumulation of one bubble into the next bubble into the next bubble

“every previous um credit bubble rarely from the 1980s has been stopped from popping basically by pushing the interest rates down hard to the point where the zombies uh sigh of relief and continue being zombies the result is that get an accumulation if you like of uh of of one bubble into the next bubble into the next bubble into the next bubble”

The Fed has a primary duty to rescue the government's finances, which is in a debt trap; the Fed also has responsibility to rescue the banking system which will be suffering from all the bad debts in an economy as zombies get wiped out by higher interest rates

“it tries to rescue what it can because it's got a primary duty to rescue the government's finances which incidentally is in a debt trap he got a um a primary responsibility to rescue the banking system which will be suffering from all the bad debts in an economy as these zombies get wiped out by higher interest rates”

Inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon, not a price phenomenon; the modern use of 'inflation' to mean price increases is incorrect and obscures what is actually happening—the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies

“you have to understand that inflation as such is not inflation in the in a sensible uh uh definition I mean originally the definition of inflation was a monetary thing not a price thing for start and uh secondly it doesn't actually capture what's going on I mean what is happening is that the purchasing power of Fe currencies is declining”

The US dollar is the least dirty of fiat currencies because other currencies are worse, making it the last to collapse, not the first.

“you know this is a currency game suddenly and uh you know the dollar is the king rat of f currencies um it's the it's the Le dirty of the lot and uh on that basis whether you know when things start going wrong with the dollar the other currencies are toast I mean and that's what the charts are now telling us of studing very very clearly”

Inflation is properly defined as a monetary phenomenon (increase in money/credit), not a price phenomenon, and current confusion about this definition prevents understanding of currency collapse.

“you have to understand that inflation as such is not inflation in the in a sensible uh uh definition I mean originally the definition of inflation was a monetary thing not a price thing for start and uh secondly it doesn't actually capture what's going on I mean what is happening is that the purchasing power of Fe currencies is declining”

The Fed's primary duty is to rescue the government's finances, which is in a debt trap, and when the credit bubble collapses the Fed will try to rescue what it can but cannot prevent currency collapse

“when the tide breaks on this one what does the FED do I mean basically it tries to rescue what it can because it's got a primary duty to rescue the government's finances which incidentally is in a debt trap”

Irving Fisher identified this collapsing credit cycle mechanism in a paper in the early 1930s; it is the core mechanism through which credit bubbles destroy the real economy, not just financial markets.

“it's all this 1930s stuff which IR Fisher um you know first identified in a paper written I think in the early 30s so you can see that um this collapsing credit bubble isn't just an inconvenience for investors it's actually very distructive for the basic economies”

Interest rates should stabilize the exchange rate (dollar against gold), not manage economic outcomes; the Fed uses rates for the wrong purpose and is clueless about what it's doing

“part of the problem I think is that the FED is using interest rates to try and manage economic outcomes that is not the purpose of interest rates the purpose of interest rates is to stabilize the exchange rate so really it needs to raise rates in order to stabilize the exchange rate and I'm here I'm talking about the the exchange rate the dollar against gold but of course they think that gold is now part of the monetary system you know they they've their propaganda basically is they've got rid of gold so they're completely clueless as to what they're doing”

Irving Fisher identified the debt deflation process in a paper in the early 1930s that explains how collapsing collateral values trigger cascading defaults and forced liquidations in recessions, a mechanism operating in the current bubble deflation

“you can see that the whole of the collateral side uh in a collapsing bubble is actually where the danger lies because you're going to get foreclosures you're going to get business is going bust you're going to get Banks sort of saying well hold on a minute uh we are no longer covered uh here we're going to have to get more collateral in or else we've got to liquidate the position so you know it's all this 1930s stuff which IR Fisher um you know first identified in a paper written I think in the early 30s”

China and Japan, as the two largest foreign holders of US Treasuries, have shifted from buyers to sellers; China is actively selling dollars to buy gold; Japanese institutions have incurred losses on their dollar investments despite gains on exchange rates

“you've already got the two largest uh foreign um holders of us treasuries uh uh turning sellers I mean you got China isn't buying anymore she's she's easing her position out she's actually selling dollars to buy gold uh and uh the Japanese institutions are in exactly the same position they've got losses if you like on their dollar Investments they may have profits on the exchange rate but they've got losses on the underlying Investments so they're not going to go and buy things out along the U curve that's for sure”

Syria's current situation will be 'a complete and utter mess' similar to Libya, characterized by tribal infighting and religious infighting

“but it does seem that the Americans uh if you like pursuing Israeli desires or policies have been really at the Forefront of organizing the the Rebellion against the assads um British intelligence has been in there as well they basically back the white helmets um the idea that uh you know we haven't been involved I think is a myth we you know we have very definitely being a party to uh this destruction and rather like we were party to the destruction of Gaddafi um you know I think the consequences of this are going to be really horrendous for Syria I just see tribal infighting I see religious infighting I mean the you know the new leader of HTS who's sort of um you know seems to be assuming the role of President um you know sort of indicated that that that uh you know he will tolerate other religions but I understand that his main appointee um is an expert in Sharia law so is this really going to happen you know I mean this is a mess we don't know how it's going to turn out other than that it's going to be terrible absolutely terrible”

Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 was the big catalyst for the Great Depression slump, not money supply contraction, though both contributed to economic collapse

“I mean that was in those days it was principally to protect farmers and things like that um but what happens when when you introduce tariffs like that you know say against the European Union against China you know they hit back with their own tariffs or their own restrictions in terms of um uh needed you know uh exports so I mean uh China has already put a band list on on some of her Rare Earth export exports to to America”

Sterling is in a very sickly position and will depreciate; there will be consolidation at $1.20 to the dollar, then $1.10, and then possibly $1.00 quite quickly without major government change or an IMF intervention like in the 1970s

“uh Sterling is also in a very very sickly position that is going down south and I think it won't be terribly long before we see it back down to well there'll be a bit of consolidation at$ 120 to the dollar then 110 then I I rarely think um unless this government changes hugely and I don't see an IMF coming in as they did in the 1970s to tell the government what to do um you know I think I think you know one pound $1 doll I could see that happening and I could see it happening quite quickly too”

The real geopolitical shift is toward Asian hegemons and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, which represent a larger economy than the West on a purchasing power basis and larger population, undergoing an industrial revolution that will thrive as long as they avoid Western interference (debt calls, regime change).

“hope for the future I think actually does lie in the Asian hegemons and the Shanghai cooperation organization and bricks and so on so forth there is a whole world there which is actually larger than ours certainly on a purchasing barar basis and also in terms of population which um is going to thrive I mean you got an industrial revolution which is happening um throughout everybody associated with that which is why so many countries want to be involved with it”

The dollar may appear strong (Dixie Index at 107.5 while gold is at $2600) because it is the 'least dirty of all currencies,' but gold's strength reflects currency weakness, not gold strength, creating a confusing appearance while the dollar is fundamentally undermined.

“the dollar is the king rat of f currencies um it's the it's it's the LE dirty of the lot and uh on that basis whether you know when things start going wrong with the dollar the other currencies are toast I mean and that's what the charts are now telling us of studing very very clearly”

The dollar is the 'king rat of fiat currencies' and the 'least dirty of the lot'—all other currencies are worse; when the dollar weakens, all other fiat currencies are destroyed

“the dollar is the king rat of f currencies um it's the it's the Le dirty of the lot and uh on that basis whether you know when things start going wrong with the dollar the other currencies are toast”

Trade and tariffs, not individual rate policies, will be the big geopolitical problem in 2025

“in terms of uh other geopolitical factors I think that uh we are looking at trade which is now going to trade trade tariffs going to be the big problem I think in 2025”

Israel is expanding its territory in Syria by taking control of the Golan Heights and parts of Southern Syria; Turkey is grabbing territory in Northern Syria; Syria will become divided among regional powers and will not be reconstructed as a unified state.

“it looks as if Israel is expanding its territory to the north across the goolan Heights and will take over some of um Southern Syria the Turks will grab what they can in the North um and they will be fighting against the uh curs”

We are now in the largest credit bubble in recorded history, and when this one collapses it will take out the currencies as well

“so that we're now uh in the largest credit bubble in history in recorded history and when this one collapses is going to take out the currencies as well”

Sterling (British pound) is in a very weak position and could decline to parity with the dollar ($1 GBP = $1 USD) within a foreseeable timeframe.

“uh um the you look at the chart of the long guilts and uh they are soaring it the yield is soaring which means that the price is collapsing uh and uh Sterling is also in a very very sickly position that is going down south and I think it won't be terribly long before we see it back down to well there'll be a bit of consolidation at$ 120 to the dollar then 110 then I I rarely think um unless this government changes hugely and I don't see an IMF coming in as they did in the 1970s to tell the government what to do um you know I think I think you know one pound $1 doll I could see that happening and I could see it happening quite quickly too”

The Russians have not yet signed formal defense agreements with Iran, but they will be signed, which will make future military actions against Iran extremely dangerous due to Russian retaliation.

“because of the defense agreements which I know have yet to be signed between Russia and Iran but they will be signed this is um you know it this this could actually turn out to be extremely nasty”

Europe is a net seller of gold ETFs while Asia is accumulating, suggesting Europe doesn't understand or has given up on real money protection.

“Europe is a net seller of old edfs yeah which is absolutely puzzling maybe it is maybe and we we have to cut here at some point Alistair but maybe it is just because of our fin e economical situation we're officially in a recession maybe we just can't afford to do it maybe we just can't afford to buy it I have no idea I'm I'm running out of excuses and ideas of why that is the case maybe it is a difference in economic situation and that we don't understand yeah I I I think I I think the ECB has got a lot to do with it”

Peter Schiff's claim that the Fed lost the inflation war is accurate because the Fed was not actually winning and never could have won using rates for economic management rather than currency stabilization.

“Peter shiffy yesterday said well the feds lost the war on inflation um would you agree with that statement yeah absolutely I mean I don't think they ever you know I don't think they were ever winning the war inflation really”

Trade and tariffs will be the major geopolitical flashpoint in 2025, with Trump setting tariff policy unilaterally via executive action rather than congressional process like Smoot-Hawley, leading to trade wars with China and potentially devastating effects similar to 1930s tariffs on global supply chains

“I think that uh we are looking at trade which is now going to trade trade tariffs going to be the big problem I think in 2025 um assuming that Trump means what he says that trade is the most beautiful world word uh and assuming that Scott bessent is uh nominated uh treasury secretary um doesn't actually sort of stamp on that”

Russia is winning the war in Ukraine and the Russians control the negotiating situation; Trump's claims about resolving it in a day are unrealistic because Russian demands (keeping Eastern Donbas, Crimea, and guarantees Ukraine stays out of NATO) would be unacceptable even to Trump's administration

“the Russians are winning in Ukraine I mean there's no doubt that um they will defeat um Ukraine ukrainians um and uh under Trump as he comes in I mean he said he'll resolve this in a day I mean you know don't believe that at all um he's going to be fighting his own deep State as long as well as um you know the Russians who have got the um the whip hand in any negotiations over Ukraine”

On a purchasing power parity basis, the Russian economy is now the fourth largest in the world

“the amazing thing I wrot an article not so long ago on the Russian economy did you know that on a purchasing power par basis it's now the fourth largest economy in the world I didn't one thing I learned today aliser was that they have 23% interest rates”

Russia has government debt-to-GDP of less than 20% and a balanced budget despite military spending and war; these are conditions the West would dream of having

“and I mean you know these are conditions we would dream of in the west uh we're the ones going bust by the way just to make it absolutely clear this is actually quite I mean hope for the future I think actually does lie in the Asian hegemons and the Shanghai cooperation organization and bricks and so on so forth”

The next enemy for Israel and the US Deep State will be Iran; this is dangerous because of defense agreements between Russia and Iran which have yet to be signed but will be

“the Deep state will will push for this uh because this is is what Israel wants what Israel say wants the Deep State goes for the next enemy as far as the Americans are concerned is Iran and so you know if we see um an expansion if you like of the problems in the Middle East I think it's going to very much um focus on attacking Iran but that's very dangerous because of the defense agreements which I know have yet to be signed between Russia and Iran but they will be signed this is um you know it this this could actually turn out to be extremely nasty it's it's a developing situation”

The only G7 countries which don't have debt to GDP ratios over 100% are Germany at 62% and Canada, though Canada is rapidly deteriorating

“so you know you've got what have we got in 2025 we've got the potential for uh these debt traps really to be r on uh major currencies uh or the governments that are responsible for major currencies um you've got central banks which are insolvent I'm not talking with commercial Banks the central banks are insolvent uh they're insolvent in the sense that uh they their their debts uh exceed their Equity many times over many many times over um now that can be recapitalized but you can't recapitalize the ECB I mean that's that's virtually a no no um because it's a two-step process and it requires agreement in multiple jurisdictions uh at the political level so um you know I just can't see that happening so the the Euro you know could be on the way out uh that's a very serious statement so I mean if you're you know we referred to the world is sort of split into two hearts you know you got the Russian and Chinese interests all their bits and you got the Western Alliance you know we're the guys who are falling apart uh the other lot are okay but they've got to protect themselves from The Fallout of our stupidities so um you know they're going to continue to sell our currencies that's what it boils down to what do they buy they buy gold they might buy some silver they might buy you know whatever I mean hang on to needed Commodities start uh you know building strategic stockpiles because at the end of the day if there is a correlation between gold and anything it is particularly against a basket of Commodities so that's really what it represents yeah that sort of fits a Bloomberg Outlook report that just came out today actually that they expect go to appreciate while while the other Commodities might depreciate in price over the next 12 months based on recessionary fears you know looming debt crisis across the across the globe as well with gold pretty much the only asset class put potentially appreciating in value here next year going to $3,000 and maybe bouncing there yeah they've got a something which is fundamentally wrong and that is they think that the dollar is money so they're they're looking at gold as an investment you know they're saying they're speculating that gold would go higher um because of demand whatever whatever they are not looking they take they're not putting into this any Credence for uh the difference between money and credit they think that the dollar is money they think that gold is something sort of out there which uh you know perhaps gives you a bit of comfort when things start going wrong uh and they see heightened risk so when there's heightened risk they think the gold price goes up what they don't understand is it's their currency going down and this is the problem actually throughout also the the uh the whole of the banking system and derivative Market ETS and it's you know a lot of it because they have to account in dollars or Pounds or Euros or whatever the the the national currency is so you know a good year is one where you've got a profit in pounds or Euros or dollars um so you tend not to look at gold other than through these blinkers of your panell cart in F currencies and so people like Bloomberg have got no idea actually what the role of gold is is and why it appears to be rising it's not Rising it's their currency is going down now the moment they start writing on that basis you could see that the credibility of currencies will start disintegrated quite rapidly and this is a very very important point at some stage perhaps some of these analysts will begin to realize that put uh the relationship between credit and real legal money in that context uh if they do then it's going to start undermining the value of fair currencies even more”

Equity markets are currently twice as overvalued compared with bonds as they were at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000

“we are currently I mean equities are twice as overvalued compared with bonds as they were in the dot bubble now just think about that for a moment the do bubble bubble exhibited all the traits that you will have read about in Charles makai's um uh you know book about bubbles um the extraordinary Madness and delusions and all the rest of it”

Russia's military has 23% interest rates; wage inflation is 20-30%; these are not translating into price inflation because workers are saving rather than spending for the first time in decades

“I know they were going to put them up have they they were going to put them up that I know yeah um but you know what's what's happened there is fascinating because um uh the you know wage wages have risen quite substantially in Russia um there is a shortage of Labor um after I mean Decades of not being paid very much ordinary laborers are now getting decent wages and they're saving it and this is why you know something like uh 20 to 30% wage inflation is not translating into price inflation prices are rising yes I think officially around about eight or nine maybe 10% something like that but the difference is because these guys for the first time in their lives are actually saving some of what they earn”

The only things that will be left standing when the credit bubble pops are real money (gold and to a lesser extent silver and copper coins), not equities, bonds, or any form of credit-based assets

“how do you protect yourself you just get the hell out of credit this is what I've been you know the message I've been trying to get get to everybody what is credit credit is you know obviously equities I mean equities are are credit people think they're not the their credit is that you you know the management has an obligation which is a debt to you as a shareholder to deliver an income stream that is credit it's not you know defined if you like in an agreement uh between say a bond holder and a you know and a borrower but it is nonetheless credit everything is credit and when that goes you know this is very bad news the only thing which is really going to be left standing is real money which is gold and to a lesser extent because it's not monetized is silver and also if you go back in history not too far away and I remember copper in the coins so you know this is real money and nobody's got it”

Bloomberg's report forecasting gold appreciation while other commodities depreciate reflects a fundamental misunderstanding: Bloomberg frames gold as an investment that benefits from risk-off sentiment, not as a measure of currency failure.

“they've got a something which is fundamentally wrong and that is they think that the dollar is money so they're they're looking at gold as an investment you know they're saying they're speculating that gold would go higher um because of demand whatever whatever they are not looking they take they're not putting into this any Credence for uh the difference between money and credit they think that the dollar is money they think that gold is something sort of out there which uh you know perhaps gives you a bit of comfort when things start going wrong”

The Russians are winning in Ukraine; under Trump, Ukraine will be defeated, though Trump cannot resolve it in a day as he claims; the situation is essentially a done deal despite mainstream media framing

“I think I mean in 2024 what we saw was the evolution if you like of the real hotspot being from Ukraine to uh the Middle East and certainly in terms of press reporting that's the case I think the Press has got rather tired of Ukraine uh the other problem is that um the Russians are winning in Ukraine I mean there's no doubt that um they will defeat um Ukraine ukrainians um and uh under Trump as he comes in I mean he said he'll resolve this in a day I mean you know don't believe that at all um he's going to be fighting his own deep State as long as well as um you know the Russians who have got the um the whip hand in any negotiations over Ukraine so that I think um is more or less a done deal though um few people in the mainstream media would look at it that way”

A gold-backed trade settlement currency for BRICS was floated by the Russian Embassy in Nairobi in 2023 but was rejected because China did not want to upset the global currency system and India (Keynesian to the core) feared it would limit its government's macroeconomic management ability.

“the idea that they were going to immediately do away with the dollar um no that was a that's going to be a long long process... the idea that the Russians could sort of suddenly change this um I think was actually stopped in 2023 when uh the Russian Embassy in Nairobi floated the idea that um you know a gold backed uh uh trade settlement currency would be on the agenda in Johannesburg and it didn't make the cut why China didn't want to up you know sort of if you like upset the world upset the entire F currency system by backing this India certainly didn't want to do it”

Germany is remarkable because it has had two currency collapses in the last century (1920s and post-WWII) but still shows very low interest in physical gold as an asset

“and what amazes me Kai is that in Germany which has had two currency collapses in the last Century the interest in gold is about that physical gold it's it's a very small Select Market that focuses on gold and we see it at our conference and you've been to our conference ellister as well it's it's not a mass Market product”

The gold-silver ratio mentioned in Diocletan's Edict was 12:1, which is relevant for understanding current precious metals relative valuations.

“he he put in the relationship between gold and silver uh which incidentally was was a gold silver ratio of 12 for those that are interested”

The Dow Jones has experienced 8 days in a row of losses, the longest losing streak since June 2018; the S&P 500 has had 11 consecutive days of more decliners than advancers, the longest record since 1990

“I saw a headline in the Wall Street Journal uh I think it was yesterday that there's been the longest uh uh run of falls in the Dow Jones index uh since 1980 four or something know five days in a row or six or 10 I you know it's like I got some stats here it's down eight days in a row it's the longest losing streak since June 2018 I'm sure there's a few extra days added to that I'm not I don't have the dates so same same with the S&P 11 consecutive days of more decliners than advancers in the S&P Tai's longest record since 1990”

The US is in a debt trap where debt to GDP is 135% and rising; it will reach 150-160% if the economy contracts

“last time we talked uh you you sort of questioned you know are they really 135% debt to GDP I the answer is yes and it's going to get worse because if the economy TS if the economy goes down then that ratio shoots up and it won't be very long before you see a debt to GDP of 150 160%”

Russia's annexation of Eastern Donbas and Crimea is expected to be permanent, and US/NATO recognition of this is likely because it's Russian-controlled territory that will not be recovered.

“when it comes to Russia there is not going to be an easy solution there as uh Trump um has told us that I mean basically the Russians control the situation and uh their their demands are are likely to be very simple they would want to keep on to uh the Eastern norblast uh Crimea um have absolutely no doubt that that is Russian and um they would want um guarantees convincing guarantees that uh the rest of Ukraine will be neutral and not join NATO under any circumstances whatsoever”

German historical experience with two currency collapses in the 20th century (1920s hyperinflation and post-WWII mark collapse) should make Germans the most gold-aware population, yet Germany is a net seller of ETF gold and has low physical gold market penetration

“what amazes me Kai is that in Germany which has had two currency collapses in the last Century the interest in gold is about that physical gold it's it's a very small Select Market that focuses on gold”

India is not a Trojan horse in BRICS for the US because India has always maintained closer ties with Asia and the Soviets historically, and currently has to walk a tightrope between trading with both West and Asia.

“I mean India is in this position where she trades with the West um she trades also with Asia she's had long-standing ties with Asia I mean going all the way back to uh partition in 1940 was it 46 or whenever it was 48 48 I think um you know they've always you know under the gandis and all the rest of it they've always had had this closer relationship with the Soviets rather than with the West um so they've had to walk a tight rope and they're still doing it”

Everything is credit, not just bonds and mortgages; equities are credit because management has an implicit debt obligation to deliver income to shareholders

“what is credit credit is you know obviously equities I mean equities are are credit people think they're not the their credit is that you you know the management has an obligation which is a debt to you as a shareholder to deliver an income stream that is credit”

Milei's success in Argentina despite economic difficulty shows he has popular support that Trump lacks; Trump does not have the mandate to implement deep structural reforms like DOGE plans because he faces entrenched bureaucratic and congressional opposition that Milei did not face

“after DEC Decades of corrupt peronist rule in Argentina The Wider population in Argentina voted very very heavily in favor of melee and if they had an election today his majority would probably be even greater now the point I'm trying to make is that you know even though I have enormous admiration for Elon Musk uh Vic graami i' know less about but um you know it's one thing being a total genius as an entrepreneur in the private sector it's another thing dealing with bureaucrats in government and I would say this very very firmly and that is that uh Trump does not have the Mandate that Miller had when he went when he was elected to do what he's done”

The Americans have been stealing oil from Syria and have been at the forefront of organizing the rebellion against Assad, aided by British intelligence; Syria's destruction is similar to Libya

“the motivation I think um is Israel um the Americans support Israel uh the Americans have been taking uh oil out of Syria I mean as if it was their own they've been stealing the oil if you like from the state uh and that has deprived that deprived Assad of um of revenues um so the country has been limping along basically financially broken uh for the last seven eight years 10 years whatever uh and uh uh it seems and you know this is information which we have to get if you like um not from the mainstream media but from alternative sources uh which you have to filter really quite carefully but it does seem that the Americans uh if you like pursuing Israeli desires or policies have been really at the Forefront of organizing the the Rebellion against the assads um British intelligence has been in there as well they basically back the white helmets”

The Fed's statement yesterday tried to slow down expectations about interest rate cuts in 2025; bond yields are rising and the long guilts chart shows yields soaring and prices collapsing

“fomc statement yesterday po uh you know trying to sort of say well you know slow down on your ideas about cuts and interest rates in 2025 I mean for goodness sake I've been telling people that you know bond yields are going a rise now what the FED does with that um you know is a separate question but bond yields are going higher and they're going to go a lot lot higher and uh um you know we're beginning to see them break out on the upside again I mean certainly if you look at Sterling rates uh you got you got a double whammy there because uh um the you look at the chart of the long guilts and uh they are soaring it the yield is soaring which means that the price is collapsing uh and uh Sterling is also in a very very sickly position”

The dollar has lost over 99% of its purchasing power since the time it was fixed at $20.67 per ounce; current price is over $2,600 per ounce

“if you look at um look at the dollar um I mean it was 20.67% so it's lost over I mean current pric is at over 26 uh 100 it's lost n 99% of its purchasing part”

The Dow Jones index was down 8 days in a row (longest losing streak since June 2018) and the S&P 500 had 11 consecutive days of more decliners than advancers (longest record since 1990), indicating early stages of market bubble bursting

“I got some stats here it's down eight days in a row it's the longest losing streak since June 2018 I'm sure there's a few extra days added to that I'm not I don't have the dates so same same with the S&P 11 consecutive days of more decliners than advancers in the S&P Tai's longest record since 1990”

Argentina's Javier Milei rejected joining BRICS because doing so would make it impossible for him to implement his currency board arrangement with the dollar and stabilize Argentina's currency, as the US would have opposed it; his rejection was economically rational despite ideological opposition

“the reason he backed out of brics I think is quite simple he would not be able to do what he did um uh if you like being part of brics he needed not to have America as enemies and his advisers uh very much were if you're going to stabilize the Argentinian currency you would basically have to have some sort of currency board arrangement with the dollar”