What this covers
Michael Oliver, a technical analyst and founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, walks through his case that the stock market is executing a slow, protracted top similar to 2000 and 2007, with a major downturn beginning in the first quarter of 2026. Rather than relying on price action alone, Oliver examines long-term momentum structures—which he argues have already broken their massive uptrend lines even as prices made marginal new highs. He frames this as the signature non-confirmation typical of major market peaks. The conversation, hosted by Adam Taggart, ranges across the technical setup, the historical precedent for laborious topping processes, and the economic backdrop that Oliver believes will make the coming bear market worse than the Global Financial Crisis.
The discussion moves through several distinct arguments. Oliver positions Fed rate cuts not as market support but as panic signals that historically preceded recessions in 2001 and 2007. He characterizes the past fifteen years as an unprecedented asset bubble created by rates held in the bottom third of a seventy-five-year range, inflating the S&P roughly elevenfold and the NASDAQ 100 more than twentyfold on effectively free money. On the outlook, Oliver sees a major rotation into monetary metals—gold, silver, and miners—whose spread charts against equities are breaking out of multi-decade bases. He forecasts gold reaching $8,000 and silver potentially hitting $150–$200 within six months as these assets revert from depressed ranges, and views miners as deeply undervalued leverage plays. The conversation also touches on Bitcoin's correlation to the NASDAQ and its likely decline to $60,000, the bond market's loss of control signaling official concern, and the broader political and institutional fractures a severe downturn could trigger.
Oliver argues that long-term momentum structures show the stock market is in a slow, laborious topping process mirroring the 2000 and 2007 tops, with a far worse bear market and economic crisis beginning in Q1 2026, while a major asset-class rotation out of equities and bonds into monetary metals (gold, silver, miners) is just beginning.
- Momentum factors (not price charts) have already broken massive long-term uptrend structures even as price made marginal new highs
- Fed rate cuts historically mark central-bank panic and precede recessions/market tops rather than supporting markets
- Spread charts (gold/S&P, miners/S&P, silver/gold) are breaking out of multi-decade bases, signaling the start of a metals bull, not the end
This asset isn't compiled yet
You're seeing its claims, ranked. Compile it to build the argument threads, weight them, and check each claim against your library — the full view.
Market tops are typically laborious year-long processes rather than crashes: in 2000-2002 the S&P dropped 50% and NASDAQ 82% over two years without a crash, and in 2007 the market teased above old highs, sold off, then made new highs after a surprise Fed rate cut before topping for good.
“it took a a year of laborious action, topping out, teasing new highs by just a little bit and then fumbling around but not breaking. It wasn't until early 2002 that the 2000 to 2002 bear started in a way that people started to notice and S&P dropped 50% in two years without a crash and as the 100 dropped 82% in two years”
The US Treasury bond market is behaving abnormally: after the 2020-2022 collapse from ~190 to 117, bonds have failed three momentum waves to rally even during sharp stock weakness, did not recover when stocks sold off recently, and do not correlate well with the Fed funds rate—prompting the New York Fed (Williams) to announce bond purchases due to 'illiquidity,' signaling official concern.
“the president of the New York Fed, Williams, two weeks ago said uh in a talk, no doubt approved by higherups, uh that we're going to start buying US bonds uh because of quote illi liquidity”
Bitcoin trades as an overlay of the NASDAQ 100 with a near-1.0 monthly correlation since 2020, behaving like an emotional risk asset rather than alternative money; its quarterly momentum signaled a breakdown, and after breaking the ~$74,000 pivot it will likely gush down to about $60,000 and is unlikely to resume a bull trend, with its 'reality' potentially exposed as a non-reality.
“You could take a Bitcoin monthly price chart. Go back to 2020 and a monthly price chart of NASDAQ 100. Erase the time the price scale on the left and overlay them. They're the same market. It's a correlation of near one.”
Because roughly 87-93% of financial assets and ~50% of retail spending are held by the top 10%, a market correction that triggers a negative wealth effect among the wealthy will curtail their spending, causing layoffs and corporate cost-cutting that ripple down and crush the ordinary worker—so the market now wags the economy rather than the reverse.
“the vast vast majority of financial assets are owned by the top 10%. I mean, I've seen estimates somewhere between 87 to 93% of all financial assets are owned by the top 10%”
Fed rate cuts are a sign the central bank is panicked and historically have marked near-ideal times to go short, because cuts begin just as recessions start; in both 2000-2001 and 2007 the Fed cut into a market that subsequently imploded.
“There was rate cuts are a sign that the central bank is panicked. And frankly, if if you look back at both of those peaks and circled the rate cuts, that was those were almost ideal times to just go short.”
When a market has been abnormal too long (too high or too low), reverting to the mean it typically overshoots far beyond the mean before eventually returning; thus $200 silver would merely match prior peaks when adjusted for real dollar debasement, and gold/silver moves are likely to overshoot.
“Usually when a market has been abnormal for too long, either too high or too low, when it goes and corrects and goes to a new reality, it usually goes excessive... It doesn't stop at the mean. It goes way beyond”
Since 2008-09, Fed funds have stayed in the bottom third of the past 75 years of rates, with roughly 10 of 15-16 years at zero, creating a 15-year 'chichin chong' asset bubble in which the S&P rose ~11-12 fold and NASDAQ 100 over 20-fold because money was effectively free; this is the biggest asset bubble the US has ever seen.
“you had a 11 12-fold increase in the S&P since 2009 and a 20 plusfold increase in NASDAQ 100 and money was free. So, it's like, you know, injecting something in everybody's investor arm, giving them all the liquidity they want”
Recessions do not stop surges in oil or commodities; historically (e.g., the late-1970s global stagflation recession) oil and commodities exploded higher during recessions, so the assumption that a weak economy will keep oil down is mistaken, and oil has momentum trigger levels in the mid-60s that would signal a slingshot move in Q1 2026.
“recessions do not stop surges in oil period... Late 70s for example, we had a global recession, right? Stagflation. What did the oil do? Exploded then”
Historically, in almost every case before a recession the Fed hiked then plateaued rates, and the recession (declared in arrears) began as the Fed started cutting, with the unemployment rate bottoming and then violently spiking; the current cycle of hike-hold-cut matches this pattern.
“if you look at the historical pattern in almost every case before we entered a recession, the Fed had hiked interest rates then plateaued them and it was when the Fed started cutting is when the the the start of the recession was declared”
Inflation and rising asset prices are primarily caused by degradation of the money unit (loss of dollar purchasing power) rather than supply shortages; the example of a house costing $4,500, then $45,000, then $450,000 across three generations reflects currency debasement, not genuine price increases.
“When your father built the house, the medium price was $45,000. You want to build one, it's now $450,000... it's the degradation of the money unit.”
The silver-versus-gold spread (December silver into December gold, ~1.24%) is breaking a four-year trendline and approaching a multi-year ceiling at 1.31%; prior such breakouts (1979 and 2010-11) preceded silver quintupling in five months and rising 2.5x in seven months, and silver could rapidly reach $150-200 within six months, with the ratio potentially tripling toward 3%+ as in 2011.
“The last time silver had a spread breakout like this... was in 1979 and 2010 to 11. That's when silver quinttoled in go in price in five months... Silver could go to, I'm guessing, $150 to $200 in 6 months.”
Long-term momentum factors plotted in bar-chart format have already broken massive uptrend structures, and the rally to new price highs looks like price bumping the underside of a broken trendline; this non-confirmation of price highs by momentum is the typical signature of major stock market tops.
“long-term momentum factors when you plot them in bar chart format which is what we do we we look at price secondarily have already broken massive uptrend structures and the rally that we've had to a new price high for momentum it looks like a price chart bumping the underneath side of that which it broke”
Gold at $4,000 is only roughly four-fold off its 2015 low, whereas the prior two bull markets (1976-1980 and 2001-2011) were both eight-fold moves, so on a ratio scale gold is only halfway to matching prior bulls; matching them implies ~$8,000+ gold, and metals reverting from a long downtrend typically overshoot the mean.
“If you go back and look at the two prior bull markets, 76 bare low to 1980 high, 2001 to 2011, both were eightfold moves... So on a ratio scale, we're only halfway to what those two bull markets already did.”
Gold miners (XAU index) are deeply undervalued relative to both the S&P and gold: the XAU/S&P spread is breaking a four-point trendline and miners are roughly double their performance lows versus the S&P, while the XAU/gold spread that lived at 17.5-30% for three decades now sits near 7%, so miners could double or triple just reaching prior resistance and are likely to outperform gold over the next year or two.
“If you take the XAU and go back to the 1980s... this spread, which is now just below 4 and a.5%. Was living in a range from 17.5% to 30%... now it's at 4.4% the price of gold... That spread could double or triple just to go to resistance”
The gold-versus-S&P spread chart (gold front-month divided into the S&P, ~61.8% as of last Friday) is breaking out above an 11-year base top defined by four pivotal highs at a ~60-65% resistance line, signaling a massive shift in asset performance and money flow into monetary metals and out of the S&P that is just beginning, not ending.
“You've now emerged above an 11year base top, clearly defined by four pivotal highs... You close here, you got a breakout... there's about to become a massive shift in asset performance and preference into monetary metals and out of the S&P.”
Silver remains stuck in a price range it has held for 50 years while comparable base metals (copper, lead) broke out of similar multi-decade ranges in the mid-2000s and quadrupled-to-quintupled in a couple of quarters before living in a new reality; this implies silver is overdue to break out of its abnormally depressed range.
“Copper came out of that range, multi-deade range in 200 late 2005 and quadrupled in price in a matter of a couple quarters... How come silver is still stuck in its range of 50 years?”
Financials (XLF) are relatively weak versus the S&P, trading back below their January highs after a marginal new high while the S&P rose ~12-13% further, with the XLF/S&P spread near three-year relative-performance lows—mirroring the financial-sector weakness seen in 2007.
“if you plot a spread of the XLF versus the S&P, it's imploding. It's near three-year lows relative performance-wise.”
The current period is a 'fourth turning'-style lifetime event rather than a normal 20-year market cycle, in which the status quo of the prior three turnings breaks down and is replaced; the painful detour through attempts at state socialism will fail and be discarded, leaving better-functioning arrangements.
“This is a lifetime event, not a 20-y year event.”
Investors should shift toward monetary metals (gold and especially silver and their miners) and commodity-related stocks while avoiding government debt entirely (short and long end) and dollar cash, because the Fed will print ever more to save paper assets as markets fall, accelerating dollar debasement.
“I have no interest in government debt at all... Zero interest in government debt at all. Short end, long end, neither one.”
The coming crisis will fracture institutions and prevailing assumptions—potentially the two-party system, the income tax/IRS as a revenue source, and even the Federal Reserve itself—because emotional population-wide panic affects politics, as evidenced by fracturing in both US parties and the Argentine implosion that elected an anarcho-capitalist dismantling government.
“What presumed assumptions about the Federal Reserve is it going to be here in two years? ... Income tax. Uh Federal Reserve always going to be here. All those things go out the window. Two-party system even.”
The coming bear market will be far worse than any seen before, including worse than the Global Financial Crisis, and the economic outcome will likely meet the merits of a depression.
“Far worse. I think the economic outcome will be far worse as well”
The downside break in the stock market that finally convinces people the top is in will not appear until early next year (first quarter 2026); between now and then the market will labor with possible mild selloffs but no horrendous break, mirroring the laborious topping processes of 2000 and 2007.
“I think that the downside break we're going to see in the stock market that finally convinces people oops is not going to show up until early next year.”
Markets and information move much faster today, so the regurgitation of the last 15 years' distortions could happen rapidly; a lot of the downside expulsion may occur very quickly in 2026 as certain markets shift from incremental moves to chaos-theory-type action, leaving the earth rapidly.
“a lot of what we're about to see will be chaos theory type action, not incremental upside or downside. It will be extremely rapid.”
A traditional crash (defined as roughly a 30% drop in a couple of weeks) is rare and unnecessary for a major decline; in 2000-2002 and for the first year after the 2007 high there was no crash, and the first leg down typically takes about a 20% haircut before a fight ensues.
“It could be a massive decline that has never had a crash event in it. Crash event is defined as like 30% drop in a couple weeks. Okay. Uh that that's rare.”
Nvidia and the top weighting of the indexes dominate market direction—the first five NASDAQ 100 stocks make up ~50% of the index and tech weighting is ~30% of the S&P—so these few symbols impact the indexes more than 50 other stocks combined, which is why the narrow market has not broken down despite weak breadth.
“in the first five stocks of NASDAQ 100 50% of the entire index okay Nvidia upfront okay and if you go to the S&P yes it's it's not quite so weighted but it's about 30%”
Nvidia rose as much in one hour as it might normally take three weeks to do after earnings, then failed and closed weak in the same day, breaking a short-term technical structure and leaving it wobbly.
“We went up as much as you might take three weeks to do. They did it in one hour. Okay. But then it it failed in the same day”