Worst Bear Market Of Our Lifetime To Start In 2026? | Michael Oliver
What this covers
Michael Oliver, a technical analyst and founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, walks through his case that the stock market is executing a slow, protracted top similar to 2000 and 2007, with a major downturn beginning in the first quarter of 2026. Rather than relying on price action alone, Oliver examines long-term momentum structures—which he argues have already broken their massive uptrend lines even as prices made marginal new highs. He frames this as the signature non-confirmation typical of major market peaks. The conversation, hosted by Adam Taggart, ranges across the technical setup, the historical precedent for laborious topping processes, and the economic backdrop that Oliver believes will make the coming bear market worse than the Global Financial Crisis.
The discussion moves through several distinct arguments. Oliver positions Fed rate cuts not as market support but as panic signals that historically preceded recessions in 2001 and 2007. He characterizes the past fifteen years as an unprecedented asset bubble created by rates held in the bottom third of a seventy-five-year range, inflating the S&P roughly elevenfold and the NASDAQ 100 more than twentyfold on effectively free money. On the outlook, Oliver sees a major rotation into monetary metals—gold, silver, and miners—whose spread charts against equities are breaking out of multi-decade bases. He forecasts gold reaching $8,000 and silver potentially hitting $150–$200 within six months as these assets revert from depressed ranges, and views miners as deeply undervalued leverage plays. The conversation also touches on Bitcoin's correlation to the NASDAQ and its likely decline to $60,000, the bond market's loss of control signaling official concern, and the broader political and institutional fractures a severe downturn could trigger.
Michael Oliver argues the stock market is in a multi-year topping process that will culminate in a severe bear market and economic downturn in 2026, while simultaneously signaling the beginning of a major rotation into monetary metals (gold and silver) as investors lose faith in fiat currency and central bank competence.
- Technical momentum indicators show a decade-plus topping pattern similar to 2000 and 2007, with laborious price action masking underlying weakness
- Gold vs. S&P spread and silver vs. gold spread have broken key resistance levels, signaling asset class rotation away from equities toward monetary metals
- The magnitude of the coming downturn will be worse than the 2008 GFC due to vastly larger asset bubbles, higher government debt, and broader global imbalances
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Market tops are typically laborious year-long processes rather than crashes: in 2000-2002 the S&P dropped 50% and NASDAQ 82% over two years without a crash, and in 2007 the market teased above old highs, sold off, then made new highs after a surprise Fed rate cut before topping for good.
“it took a a year of laborious action, topping out, teasing new highs by just a little bit and then fumbling around but not breaking. It wasn't until early 2002 that the 2000 to 2002 bear started in a way that people started to notice and S&P dropped 50% in two years without a crash and as the 100 dropped 82% in two years”
Average middle-class people who are hanging on are primarily supported by stock market gains in their 401k retirement accounts, and if those gains are taken away in Q1 of next year after enjoying positive returns, they will face emotional distress that will lack all other positive financial factors in their lives (mortgage debt, maxed credit cards, inability to pay taxes).
“the only thing the average guy right now who's is not controlling his own investments but does have his retirement account...that's the only thing he's smiling about...But if you you take that away in the first quarter of next year, he's got nothing to smile about. Therefore, emotion comes in to play...let's say he's 5 10 years from retirement is he's smiling at least I got my retirement account he's probably later on his mortgage his credit card is maxed out uh he has to file for delays on his tax return because he can't afford to pay it”
The coming market decline will destroy wealth and remove the 'wealth effect' that has been supporting consumer spending and the broader economy, which will be especially damaging given that the top 10% own 87-93% of financial assets and generate about 50% of retail spending, creating a negative feedback loop
“if there is the correction that you're looking for not necessarily a crash but but the beginning of a of a grind downwards. I think yes, the the guy who's hanging on is all of a sudden not going to have that that lifeline that the his 401k has been providing to him and he's going to start really feeling pain”
The US Treasury bond market is behaving abnormally: after the 2020-2022 collapse from ~190 to 117, bonds have failed three momentum waves to rally even during sharp stock weakness, did not recover when stocks sold off recently, and do not correlate well with the Fed funds rate—prompting the New York Fed (Williams) to announce bond purchases due to 'illiquidity,' signaling official concern.
“the president of the New York Fed, Williams, two weeks ago said uh in a talk, no doubt approved by higherups, uh that we're going to start buying US bonds uh because of quote illi liquidity”
Bitcoin trades as an overlay of the NASDAQ 100 with a near-1.0 monthly correlation since 2020, behaving like an emotional risk asset rather than alternative money; its quarterly momentum signaled a breakdown, and after breaking the ~$74,000 pivot it will likely gush down to about $60,000 and is unlikely to resume a bull trend, with its 'reality' potentially exposed as a non-reality.
“You could take a Bitcoin monthly price chart. Go back to 2020 and a monthly price chart of NASDAQ 100. Erase the time the price scale on the left and overlay them. They're the same market. It's a correlation of near one.”
Because roughly 87-93% of financial assets and ~50% of retail spending are held by the top 10%, a market correction that triggers a negative wealth effect among the wealthy will curtail their spending, causing layoffs and corporate cost-cutting that ripple down and crush the ordinary worker—so the market now wags the economy rather than the reverse.
“the vast vast majority of financial assets are owned by the top 10%. I mean, I've seen estimates somewhere between 87 to 93% of all financial assets are owned by the top 10%”
Fed rate cuts are a sign the central bank is panicked and historically have marked near-ideal times to go short, because cuts begin just as recessions start; in both 2000-2001 and 2007 the Fed cut into a market that subsequently imploded.
“There was rate cuts are a sign that the central bank is panicked. And frankly, if if you look back at both of those peaks and circled the rate cuts, that was those were almost ideal times to just go short.”
When a market has been abnormal too long (too high or too low), reverting to the mean it typically overshoots far beyond the mean before eventually returning; thus $200 silver would merely match prior peaks when adjusted for real dollar debasement, and gold/silver moves are likely to overshoot.
“Usually when a market has been abnormal for too long, either too high or too low, when it goes and corrects and goes to a new reality, it usually goes excessive... It doesn't stop at the mean. It goes way beyond”
Fed rate cuts are a signal of central bank panic and distress, not a positive signal for the market, and historically have coincided with major market peaks and ensuing declines, as seen in 2001 (rate cuts in January as market rolled over) and 2007 (half-point surprise rate cut in September after Bernanke claimed mortgages were contained, followed by market party into October then new highs which failed)
“Rate cuts are a sign that the central bank is panicked. And frankly, if if you look back at both of those peaks and circled the rate cuts, that was those were almost ideal times to just go short. Okay? Uh it meant something's wrong.”
The market has had three asset bubbles in the past 25 years (dot-com, housing crisis, everything bubble), which historically happened only once per generation due to the devastating aftermath, suggesting we are now in a regime of continuous mal-investment driven by central planning distortions.
“most people, most of my audience is 45, 50 and older. We've lived through three asset bubbles in the past 25 years, right? We had the.com bubble, we had the housing bubble 1.0, and now we have what what's called the everything bubble.”
Financial sector stocks (XLF ETF) are showing significant weakness relative to the S&P 500, trading below January highs while the S&P made new highs in 2024, a pattern similar to 2007 before the financial crisis, signaling underlying stress in the banking and financial system
“XLF, the financial ETF, which has brokerage firms, banks, etc., insurance, all that stuff in it. Uh, it's trading below its January highs. Okay, that, in other words, when we made the April break, it broke along with the S&P and the NASDAQ. It turned back up, made a marginal new high. S&P made new high by like a dozen%, 12, 13%. S&P is now pulling back, but XLF is back below its prior January high.”
The S&P 500 fell 50% over two years without a crash in the 2000-2002 bear market, while the NASDAQ 100 fell 82% over the same period, showing that bear markets don't require sudden crashes; they can be grinding declines.
“the 2000 to 2002 bear started in a way that people started to notice and S&P dropped 50% in two years without a crash and as the 100 dropped 82% in two years”
The last time silver had a spread breakout where it beat gold was in 1979 and 2010-2011, when silver quintupled in 5 months (summer 79 to early 1980) and doubled in 7 months (2010-11), suggesting a similar explosive move is imminent.
“The last time silver had a spread breakout like this where once the spread broke out, you gushed to the upside, silver beating gold was in 1979 and 2010 to 11. That's when silver quinttoled in go in price in five months in 79 summer 79 to the peak of early 1980. It quintupled in five months and in 2010 111 between the month it broke out and hitting its high in April 2011 it went a double and a half in seven months.”
The internet wasn't a lie about changing lives positively and massively, but it got overpriced and dropped 82%, taking the NASDAQ 100 from its 2000 high until 2016 just to get back to the prior high.
“It wasn't it wasn't a lie that internet would change our lives in a positive way, in a massive way, but it got overpriced and dropped 82%. After the 2000 high at NASDAQ, in fact, it took it till 2016 for the NASDAQ 100 to even get back to its do high.”
The market tail now wags the economy dog, rather than the economy wagging the market tail, showing the inversion of normal relationships where market wealth effects drive economic behavior.
“you know it used to be the economy that that wag the market tail. It really does seem to be the market tail now that wags the economy.”
When a market has been abnormal for too long (either too high or too low), when it corrects to a new reality, it usually goes excessive, overshooting the mean rather than stopping at the mean, then maybe returning to the mean.
“Usually when a market has been abnormal for too long, either too high or too low, when it goes and corrects and goes to a new reality, it usually goes excessive. Right? When it reverts to the mean, it usually doesn't stop. It goes way beyond and then maybe comes back to the mean again.”
The three major investment banks (Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and others like Jeff Gundlach) have made the statement that the 40-year bond bull market is over and are recommending moving away from the traditional 60/40 portfolio; this is a historic shift in institutional positioning.
“I have also heard similar predictions and this is from these are big Wall Street names like these are things Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, uh uh Jeff Goodlock, um uh that um you know the the 40-year bond bull market is over and going forward maybe it shouldn't be a 6040 portfolio.”
Since 2008-09, Fed funds have stayed in the bottom third of the past 75 years of rates, with roughly 10 of 15-16 years at zero, creating a 15-year 'chichin chong' asset bubble in which the S&P rose ~11-12 fold and NASDAQ 100 over 20-fold because money was effectively free; this is the biggest asset bubble the US has ever seen.
“you had a 11 12-fold increase in the S&P since 2009 and a 20 plusfold increase in NASDAQ 100 and money was free. So, it's like, you know, injecting something in everybody's investor arm, giving them all the liquidity they want”
Recessions do not stop surges in oil or commodities; historically (e.g., the late-1970s global stagflation recession) oil and commodities exploded higher during recessions, so the assumption that a weak economy will keep oil down is mistaken, and oil has momentum trigger levels in the mid-60s that would signal a slingshot move in Q1 2026.
“recessions do not stop surges in oil period... Late 70s for example, we had a global recession, right? Stagflation. What did the oil do? Exploded then”
Historically, in almost every case before a recession the Fed hiked then plateaued rates, and the recession (declared in arrears) began as the Fed started cutting, with the unemployment rate bottoming and then violently spiking; the current cycle of hike-hold-cut matches this pattern.
“if you look at the historical pattern in almost every case before we entered a recession, the Fed had hiked interest rates then plateaued them and it was when the Fed started cutting is when the the the start of the recession was declared”
Inflation and rising asset prices are primarily caused by degradation of the money unit (loss of dollar purchasing power) rather than supply shortages; the example of a house costing $4,500, then $45,000, then $450,000 across three generations reflects currency debasement, not genuine price increases.
“When your father built the house, the medium price was $45,000. You want to build one, it's now $450,000... it's the degradation of the money unit.”
Global government debt at the central government level (US, Japan, UK) is at crisis levels and can no longer sustain indefinitely, with the US Treasury bond market showing signs of dysfunction (acting like it's in crisis despite official statements of stability), forcing the Federal Reserve to announce purchases of US bonds due to 'illiquidity'
“right now we have a debt problem that is at crisis level that is way beyond just mortgages. We're talking about central government debt, Japanese debt, UK debt, US debt. Uh we've got a US T-bond market that acts like it's comatose. And even the the president of the New York Fed, Williams, two weeks ago said uh in a talk, no doubt approved by higherups, uh that we're going to start buying US bonds uh because of quote illiquidity.”
The stock market has been in a topping process since late last year (2023) through early 2024, with most major indices making their highs between November-December of last year and January-February of this year
“A lot of stocks and indexes made highs late last year, November, December, and some of them made their highs in January, February this year. But basically around that four-month period, let's say, we think the market began a topping process.”
Jamie Dimon has said fundamentally the recurring government debt cycle can't just keep going on, indicating even major bankers recognize the unsustainability of current debt levels.
“Jamie diamond has said fundamentally, you know, this recurring government debt cycle, uh, it can't just keep going on. This is a real big problem.”
The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have become excessively narrow, with the top 5 stocks representing 50% of the NASDAQ 100 and about 30% of the S&P, violating the breadth rule that requires broad market participation, yet the market hasn't broken down despite this violation
“in the first five stocks of NASDAQ 100 50% of the entire index okay Nvidia upfront okay and if you go to the S&P yes it's it's not quite so weighted but it's about 30% okay so what those those symbols do Nvidia being the pre-minent uh impacts his indexes more than 50 other stocks. Okay. Now, we all know this. Everybody is now focused on the fact that gee, the market's narrow. Okay? And yet it doesn't the market doesn't break down despite that violation of a rule.”
The momentum structural analysis methodology used by Oliver's firm looks at momentum factors in bar chart format rather than price, and this analysis has proven to be better at predicting tops and bottoms than price charts alone; long-term momentum has already broken massive uptrend structures.
“we we look at price secondarily have already broken massive uptrend structures”
The silver-versus-gold spread (December silver into December gold, ~1.24%) is breaking a four-year trendline and approaching a multi-year ceiling at 1.31%; prior such breakouts (1979 and 2010-11) preceded silver quintupling in five months and rising 2.5x in seven months, and silver could rapidly reach $150-200 within six months, with the ratio potentially tripling toward 3%+ as in 2011.
“The last time silver had a spread breakout like this... was in 1979 and 2010 to 11. That's when silver quinttoled in go in price in five months... Silver could go to, I'm guessing, $150 to $200 in 6 months.”
Long-term momentum factors plotted in bar-chart format have already broken massive uptrend structures, and the rally to new price highs looks like price bumping the underside of a broken trendline; this non-confirmation of price highs by momentum is the typical signature of major stock market tops.
“long-term momentum factors when you plot them in bar chart format which is what we do we we look at price secondarily have already broken massive uptrend structures and the rally that we've had to a new price high for momentum it looks like a price chart bumping the underneath side of that which it broke”
Gold at $4,000 is only roughly four-fold off its 2015 low, whereas the prior two bull markets (1976-1980 and 2001-2011) were both eight-fold moves, so on a ratio scale gold is only halfway to matching prior bulls; matching them implies ~$8,000+ gold, and metals reverting from a long downtrend typically overshoot the mean.
“If you go back and look at the two prior bull markets, 76 bare low to 1980 high, 2001 to 2011, both were eightfold moves... So on a ratio scale, we're only halfway to what those two bull markets already did.”
Gold miners (XAU index) are deeply undervalued relative to both the S&P and gold: the XAU/S&P spread is breaking a four-point trendline and miners are roughly double their performance lows versus the S&P, while the XAU/gold spread that lived at 17.5-30% for three decades now sits near 7%, so miners could double or triple just reaching prior resistance and are likely to outperform gold over the next year or two.
“If you take the XAU and go back to the 1980s... this spread, which is now just below 4 and a.5%. Was living in a range from 17.5% to 30%... now it's at 4.4% the price of gold... That spread could double or triple just to go to resistance”
The gold-versus-S&P spread chart (gold front-month divided into the S&P, ~61.8% as of last Friday) is breaking out above an 11-year base top defined by four pivotal highs at a ~60-65% resistance line, signaling a massive shift in asset performance and money flow into monetary metals and out of the S&P that is just beginning, not ending.
“You've now emerged above an 11year base top, clearly defined by four pivotal highs... You close here, you got a breakout... there's about to become a massive shift in asset performance and preference into monetary metals and out of the S&P.”
Silver remains stuck in a price range it has held for 50 years while comparable base metals (copper, lead) broke out of similar multi-decade ranges in the mid-2000s and quadrupled-to-quintupled in a couple of quarters before living in a new reality; this implies silver is overdue to break out of its abnormally depressed range.
“Copper came out of that range, multi-deade range in 200 late 2005 and quadrupled in price in a matter of a couple quarters... How come silver is still stuck in its range of 50 years?”
Financials (XLF) are relatively weak versus the S&P, trading back below their January highs after a marginal new high while the S&P rose ~12-13% further, with the XLF/S&P spread near three-year relative-performance lows—mirroring the financial-sector weakness seen in 2007.
“if you plot a spread of the XLF versus the S&P, it's imploding. It's near three-year lows relative performance-wise.”
Bond market momentum is already broken and the long-end of the Treasury market is dysfunctional, failing to rally even when stocks sold off sharply, which historically bonds should do as a diversifier but are failing to do so, signaling underlying instability
“Bonds didn't recover. Bond prices laid there at high yields. Prices just wouldn't rally. Yields wouldn't drop. They don't control the long end of the debt market. And now they're trying to meaning they're concerned about something. I don't know what cuz they all say everything's fine, but obviously they're concerned about something”
The current period is a 'fourth turning'-style lifetime event rather than a normal 20-year market cycle, in which the status quo of the prior three turnings breaks down and is replaced; the painful detour through attempts at state socialism will fail and be discarded, leaving better-functioning arrangements.
“This is a lifetime event, not a 20-y year event.”
Commodity-related stocks are not as attractive as monetary metals directly but represent a 'safe place' to be investing and are 'vastly underpriced' relative to the stock market; they won't match gold or silver performance but will outperform stocks during the coming decline.
“It's another place to look at is the commodity related stocks. It's we didn't get on that, but it is a it is a good it won't match gold or silver, but it looks like a good safe place to be investing is in commodity or commodity based stocks, agricultural related base metals, etc.”
Bitcoin is not behaving as an alternative monetary asset but is instead highly correlated with the NASDAQ 100 (correlation near one on a monthly basis since 2020), suggesting it is merely a risk-on equity proxy rather than a hedge or independent store of value
“You could take a Bitcoin monthly price chart. Go back to 2020 and a monthly price chart of NASDAQ 100. Erase the time the price scale on the left and overlay them. They're the same market. It's a correlation of near one. Oh, it's almost it's almost month by month.”
Investors should shift toward monetary metals (gold and especially silver and their miners) and commodity-related stocks while avoiding government debt entirely (short and long end) and dollar cash, because the Fed will print ever more to save paper assets as markets fall, accelerating dollar debasement.
“I have no interest in government debt at all... Zero interest in government debt at all. Short end, long end, neither one.”
In 2007, Oliver's firm predicted the S&P high would be between 1550 and 1600 at the end of 2006; it hit 1550 in mid-2007, had a selloff, then came back up to make new highs in September 2007 after the Fed's surprise rate cut, which proved to be an ideal shorting opportunity within 3 weeks.
“We had a a target at the end of 2006 where S&P then was 1400. We said the high is going to be next year and it's going to be between 1550 and 1600. Well, in summer, early summer of 2007, it nipped out above 1550 and it had a sell-off. And the selloff that a lot of people thought, 'Oh, that's it. It's broken down.' And it came back up in September of 2007 and punched out that high. And then the Fed cut rates, surprise rate cut, half point, and the market partied.”
The current stock market bubble is the largest asset bubble in US history, created by 15 years of near-zero interest rates (2009-2024) and quantitative easing that injected massive amounts of free liquidity into markets, causing an 11-12 fold increase in the S&P since 2009 and a 20+ fold increase in NASDAQ 100
“I think we have the biggest asset bubble the US has ever seen. And whenever these stock market downturns occur, that's when the data points go dark as hell, you know, and the Fed really gets gets panicked. Uh, but notice what we've done for 15 years. We've been in the bottom third of reality for the last 75 years in terms of the Fed's determination of what money should cost.”
Fiat currency degradation over decades has created the illusion of rising prices (houses, costs) when in reality the purchasing power of the currency unit itself is declining, and this degradation accelerates when central banks print money in response to crises
“Like when your grandfather built the house, cost him $4,500. When your father built the house, the medium price was $45,000. You want to build one, it's now $450,000. Okay. What's that? Because the housing prices are really rising. No, it's the degradation of the money unit.”
The coming crisis will fracture institutions and prevailing assumptions—potentially the two-party system, the income tax/IRS as a revenue source, and even the Federal Reserve itself—because emotional population-wide panic affects politics, as evidenced by fracturing in both US parties and the Argentine implosion that elected an anarcho-capitalist dismantling government.
“What presumed assumptions about the Federal Reserve is it going to be here in two years? ... Income tax. Uh Federal Reserve always going to be here. All those things go out the window. Two-party system even.”
This is a lifetime event, not a 20-year event, and people need to be educated and really try to understand what's going on because it might be quite different than what the history books of people's lives have shown.
“This is a lifetime event, not a 20-year event...get educated like really really try to understand what's going on because it might be quite different than what what the history books of our life.”
Sound money principles and gold-backed or commodity-backed currency systems, which many governments including China are exploring, will eventually replace fiat currency systems as the current system proves unsustainable
“And return to money period. You know fiat currencies have been around you know not forever. We used to have gold silverbacked money units. In fact there's some major governments in the world in surprising places who are saying they're going to do that maybe. You know not us but you know the Chinese are talking about it so forth. Uh once there's a realization that fiat money has been a a prolonged drugged cycle, people will reject it.”
Argentina's recent economic collapse, including the abandonment of the two-party system and rise of an anarcho-capitalist candidate, serves as a precedent for what could happen in the US and other developed nations during severe financial crises and institutional breakdowns
“It's already happened in Argentina. We had a total implosion of the two-party system there and rise of a guy who declares himself to be an anarcho capitalist. uh and he's dismantling government peace meal uh and you so in other words it's hands in the air what do we do now attitude and that's when things change drastically more so than in 2020279”
The gold-to-S&P 500 spread (ratio of gold price divided by S&P price) has just broken above a decade-plus resistance level (the green line at ~60%), a technical signal indicating the beginning of a major asset class rotation from stocks into monetary metals rather than the end of such a move
“You've now emerged above an 11year base top, clearly defined by four pivotal highs. Nobody's looking at this chart. They're all just looking at, oh, gold's 4,000 plus. That's a huge move, which it isn't. I'll explain in a second. You close here, you got a breakout.”
Recessions do not stop surges in oil prices or commodities—historically, oil and commodities have rallied during recessions (late 1970s stagflation, 1980, etc.) as investors flee depreciating currencies into real assets
“it's done it before. You got to go back and look at crude oil futures. Go back decades and overlap it with the movement in let's say silver, gold, and also the S&P and you'll see recessions do not stop surges in oil period. Okay. The Bloomberg commodity index can go up during a recession as well.”
The coming bear market will be far worse than any seen before, including worse than the Global Financial Crisis, and the economic outcome will likely meet the merits of a depression.
“Far worse. I think the economic outcome will be far worse as well”
Socialism as an ideology is already a dying hand reaching out of the mud and will go down the sewer when the current system is reset; Russia and China are no longer communist in substance (despite nominal labels), having already abandoned central planning for market mechanisms, showing that socialism has already lost the ideological battle.
“I think that that attempt to regain state socialism will will go down the sewer. it will not work. But it is interesting that it's created it's come back sort of like a dying hand reaching up out of the mud. Okay? Because the concept even where it used to be has been abandoned.”
Despite the painful process of the coming downturn, Oliver is optimistic about the long-term outcome and what emerges from the 'fourth turning', as the destruction of failed systems and ideas (including socialism and fiat currency) will create space for better approaches based on sound money and market mechanisms
“Oh, yeah. Very optimistic. Uh I'm sitting back like at the end of the bleachers watching a football. I'm not a sports guy, but this is like one prolonged sports game and I I think it's going to work out the way we assess. And there's broader reasons for it than just simply technical analysis.”
The Venezuelan stock market appears to be a great place to invest because it's vertical due to massive money printing, but this is a warning: excessive Fed printing during the upcoming crisis could lead to similar dynamics where nominal valuations soar but real purchasing power collapses.
“You have the Venezuelan stock market. If you look at it, you think, boy, what a great place to be. Just vertical. Okay. Yeah. That's because they print money like crazy and it doesn't mean anything. To some extent that applies to our market.”
Oliver calls the current market a 'Cheech and Chong bubble'—named after the concept of injecting free money into investors' arms like a drug—where the stock market was pushed to historical excess because money was cheap, not because of fundamental improvements in the businesses.
“What I call this is a chichin chong bubble. Okay. The stock market bubble. What people say well this is one of the biggest bull markets in history...it's like, you know, injecting something in everybody's investor arm, giving them all the liquidity they want to go bye-bye bye. And they preferred the stock market and they pushed it to a point of historical excess.”
The real breakage and decisive downside move in the stock market that will convince investors of a downturn will not appear until early next year (Q1 2026)
“I think that the downside break we're going to see in the stock market that finally convinces people oops is not going to show up until early next year. That between now and then the market will labor.”
The bear market that is coming will be far worse than the 2008 Great Financial Crisis in terms of both economic outcome and market magnitude, potentially meeting the definition of a depression rather than a recession
“Yeah. No, I think it's going to be different in a way that the the bear market you see is worse than any we've seen before. But otherwise, the pattern you're talking about is is you've nailed it here.”
The primary investment strategy should be to shift capital out of stocks and bonds into monetary metals (gold, silver, and mining stocks) and commodity-related assets, avoiding government debt entirely, as the current bubble burst will devalue paper assets while real commodities and precious metals protect purchasing power
“primarily uh the monetary metals and as a wave behind the monetary metals they don't always in sync by the way commodities don't always move with gold. I think they will coattail gold coattail behind it less performance but still be a safe place to be. They're vastly underpriced especially relative to the stock market and I think it's a place to be that is safe and it's real. You're standing on it.”
The third and fourth turnings (Howe's framework) suggest we are at a generational inflection point where the status quo will be replaced by fundamentally different systems, and the pain of the transition is necessary for real change
“you know this about this a lot more but but there's many other things I want to get to. I guess I'll just say I personally share your point of view and and I when I think about this and I've mentioned this to Neil before. I I I reflect on the um the Winston Churchill quote uh about Americans, although I think it applies to most humans in general, which he says, 'I love Americans. You can always count on them to do the right thing after they've exhausted every single other potential option'”
Gold is only at three-fold appreciation from its 2015 low ($1,150 to $4,000+), whereas the two prior bull markets (1976 to 1980 and 2001 to 2011) both achieved eight-fold moves, suggesting gold is only halfway through a normal bull market cycle and has significant upside ahead
“Golds are 4,000 bucks. Okay. You know, made a low in 2015 where 1,150. So, we're four four-fold. Okay. If you go back and look at the two prior bull markets, 76 bare low to 1980 high, 2001 to 2011, both were eightfold moves. bare low to bull high.”
Oil is currently in a sideways trend and hasn't yet triggered Oliver's technical buy levels, but when it does break above those trigger levels (expected in Q1 2026 around mid-60s), oil should slingshot higher and join the commodity complex in a major rally
“Oil is still in a net sideways trend really is what oil's been in for a couple years now after that pullback. We have trigger numbers that will occur well before any price chart level is triggered. And I think oil will snap back and and surprise the president, you know, and people who assume that he's going to keep gas prices down.”
The downside break in the stock market that finally convinces people the top is in will not appear until early next year (first quarter 2026); between now and then the market will labor with possible mild selloffs but no horrendous break, mirroring the laborious topping processes of 2000 and 2007.
“I think that the downside break we're going to see in the stock market that finally convinces people oops is not going to show up until early next year.”
Markets and information move much faster today, so the regurgitation of the last 15 years' distortions could happen rapidly; a lot of the downside expulsion may occur very quickly in 2026 as certain markets shift from incremental moves to chaos-theory-type action, leaving the earth rapidly.
“a lot of what we're about to see will be chaos theory type action, not incremental upside or downside. It will be extremely rapid.”
There is a possibility of margin calls and forced selling across all assets early in the decline (2026), but this is unlikely for monetary metals because the mechanism driving them (currency degradation and Fed printing) will accelerate rather than reverse during such stress.
“Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me that you get such, but I'll make you a bet. You break that silver gold spread out and you break the gold versus S&P out. It's after a massive surge and then the stock market triggers something, let's say first quarter, second. Well, they they're surging and they say, 'Oh, we'll have a correction, too, but it won't be at these levels.'”
Bitcoin collapsed from a high around 108,000 and then 101,300 (trigger levels Oliver had defined) down to 82,000 as part of the broader asset correction that has hurt wealth holders and young investors who believed cryptocurrency would be an easy wealth generator.
“Look just what happened to Bitcoin which by the way we called. We said there's a potential crash here. We've been arguing that for about 6 months. We defined the trigger number. The first number was 108,000. Okay, we broke that, you know, six week, five so weeks ago. Uh, and then we had another level at 101300. 101,300...next thing you know, we're at 82,000.”
Silver could reach $150-200 per ounce within 6 months if the silver-to-gold spread breakout occurs as expected, which would be only normal when accounting for the true degradation of the dollar's purchasing power
“Silver could go to, I'm guessing, $150 to $200 in 6 months.”
Bitcoin has broken down from its bull market structure and will likely decline to approximately $60,000 before stabilizing, and the long-term bull case for Bitcoin is questionable as it may not resume a bull trend for quite some time if ever
“I think ultimately there's a level on Bitcoin even on price that a price guy could see and say, 'Oh god, this is you better not go here.' And that's around 7,400. That was the high in a couple years ago. Then it was the low last year, I think. Sorry, you said 7,400. Did you mean 74,000? Excuse me. Yeah, I keep I keep forget. Pardon me. Yeah. Uh I've been examining Bitcoin since it was futures contract 17. So at one point it was 7,400. Pardon me. But uh when you break that pivot point, they're going to gush all the way. And I think we're going to go down to about 60,000 before you get any serious bounce.”
The current bubble burst and subsequent downturn will trigger emotional reactions, political fragmentation, and potential institutional/governmental instability, including possible challenges to the Federal Reserve's legitimacy and the two-party political system
“emotion comes in to play. And already we're seeing emotion out there because we're seeing partisan splits within the Democrat party. There's a lot of emotion. Republican party is splitting now, fracturing in ways that probably are not going to come back together. So, you're seeing evidence of the consequences of this bubble burst even before it bursts.”
Large monetary metals moves will occur suddenly and very rapidly, not gradually, once the technical triggers break, meaning investors who wait to get better entry points after a corrections may miss most of the move if they haven't already positioned themselves
“a lot of the expulsion to the downside is going to occur this year this coming year very rapidly. It's not going to drag out over it may drag out over three years but a lot of the pain will come suddenly... you're going to have certain markets literally leave the earth and other markets not. Okay? Uh, and I I I have good solid technical reasons for that... we're going to continue. But I think a lot of what we're about to see will be chaos theory type action, not incremental upside or downside. It will be extremely rapid.”
The momentum structure of Bitcoin shows one reality that makes you smile (price charts), but another one shows something alarming (momentum oscillators), suggesting that while price looks good, the underlying structure is broken.
“The structure was like a if you saw the quarterly momentum oscillator of Bitcoin and you looked at the monthly price chart of Bitcoin, you'd see one reality that made you smile and another one said, 'Oh my god, what's what right below my feet is a floor that if I break I'm just going to go gush”
In six months following the technical trigger pulls, Oliver expects dramatic net price movements in monetary metals, especially movements that will 'take your breath away' and be unlike normal market behavior.
“it's at that point that my working assumption based on historical analysis is that in the six months following the trigger pulls that I'm going to show you, you'll see dramatic net price movements, especially in the monetary metals. Something that'll take your breath away. Not normal.”
The Nvidia earnings-driven 6% rally that reversed into a 3% loss on the same day (early November 2024) represents a technical break in momentum that, while not catastrophic in itself, signals wobbling in the key indices (NASDAQ 100 and S&P) and sets up the conditions for the larger breakdown
“What Nvidia did on Friday before the earnings report came out, we put out a report uh prior to the close that day when the report, you know, their earnings come out after the close. Uh we said if it really needs to rally first because it it certain short-term technicals didn't look right for it to have a bad report right out of the gate. And sure enough, they took the lid off of it. We went up as much as you might take three weeks to do. They did it in one hour. Okay. But then it it failed in the same day, which is a bit surprising, and closed weak enough for us to say, 'Oops, you broke something.'”
The US T-bond market collapse from 2020 to 2022 took prices from about 190 down to 117 (a real implosion), and for the subsequent three years they haven't been able to get off that floor despite three waves of upside momentum trying.
“The bond market is one you need to watch...We analyze them basically weekly...they had a collapse from 2000 year 2020 to 2022 that took price from about 190 on the T- bonds down to 117. That's a real implosion. That's when yields went crazy on the upside. But you haven't been able to in the subsequent three years to get off that that floor. And they've had three waves of upside that we can measure by our momentum metrics in T-bonds trying to get going. And they can't do it”
A traditional crash (defined as roughly a 30% drop in a couple of weeks) is rare and unnecessary for a major decline; in 2000-2002 and for the first year after the 2007 high there was no crash, and the first leg down typically takes about a 20% haircut before a fight ensues.
“It could be a massive decline that has never had a crash event in it. Crash event is defined as like 30% drop in a couple weeks. Okay. Uh that that's rare.”
Nvidia and the top weighting of the indexes dominate market direction—the first five NASDAQ 100 stocks make up ~50% of the index and tech weighting is ~30% of the S&P—so these few symbols impact the indexes more than 50 other stocks combined, which is why the narrow market has not broken down despite weak breadth.
“in the first five stocks of NASDAQ 100 50% of the entire index okay Nvidia upfront okay and if you go to the S&P yes it's it's not quite so weighted but it's about 30%”
The US government could shift to a sales tax rather than income tax if individuals can't afford to pay income taxes following an economic downturn, fundamentally changing the tax structure and people's relationship with government.
“what if uh the average guy just can't can't pay enough pay his taxes on time uh you know talking lessening next year after a downturn and suddenly the government has to make a decision. Heck the IRS simply is not a source of revenue for the government anymore. Not effective anyway. Let's go to a sales tax.”
Nvidia rose as much in one hour as it might normally take three weeks to do after earnings, then failed and closed weak in the same day, breaking a short-term technical structure and leaving it wobbly.
“We went up as much as you might take three weeks to do. They did it in one hour. Okay. But then it it failed in the same day”