NWC 2025 INS Lecture - Dr. Sarah Paine: Geopolitics, Cold War Lessons and the Way Forward
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This Issues in National Security Lecture took place on January 28, 2025. The views presented by the faculty or other guest speakers do not reflect official positions of the Naval War College, DON or DOD.
Synopsis: This lecture starts with the geopolitical cards dealt to the United States, Russia, and China. While the United States and its partners and allies are attempting to maintain a maritime global order to foster trade, China and Russia are great continental powers increasingly fixated on dominating territory. These differences have precipitated a Second Cold War. The second section will examine the views of those on both sides, who oversaw the end of the last Cold War, to explain how the democracies won without fighting a hot war. The final section will suggest some possible ways forward based on the geopolitical hand that the United States holds, the potential strategies that such a hand can support, and the strategies that proved most fruitful the last time around.
Speaker bio: Sarah C.M. Paine, the College's William S. Sims University Professor of History and Grand Strategy, has published Wars for Asia, 1911-1949, Japanese Empire, and with Bruce A. Elleman, Modern China: Continuity and Change 1644 to the Present and five co-edited books on naval operations. The Economist just featured her in its annual special issue, “The World Ahead 2025.”
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Payne argues that maritime and continental powers operate under fundamentally different geopolitical logics—maritime powers profit through trade and global order-building while continental powers consolidate territory through dominance—and understanding this distinction explains both Cold War outcomes and current strategy options against rising continental rivals.
- Maritime powers (Britain, US) defend via navy, seek open seas and global markets; continental powers (Russia, China) defend via army, seek territorial exclusion zones—these create mutually exclusive worldviews
- The Cold War was won through cumulative presidential strategy (Nixon through Reagan), ideological appeal (human rights), economic exhaustion of the USSR, and critical decisions by Bush and Kohl to fast-track German reunification while exploiting Soviet economic collapse
- Current second Cold War requires sustaining maritime alliance systems and economic strength while allowing continental powers' internal contradictions (Russia-China tensions, overextension, non-performing economies) to exhaust them—not through hot war but through strategic patience
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Continental versus maritime empires ran business in fundamentally different ways—maritime powers like Britain derived power from trade and naval control of sea lines of communication, while continental powers like Russia and China derived power from territorial consolidation and land-based armies, and the Industrial Revolution upended both by introducing economic growth that shifted the source of power from land to commerce and industry.
“Continental Maritime Empires ran business in fundamentally different ways how they wanted to organize themselves and how they wanted to organize others but then the Industrial Revolution came and put both of them out of business and introduced a maritime incoming Maritime rules-based order”
Maritime and continental powers have fundamentally different primary defense requirements: maritime powers can defend primarily at sea and derive power from trade and naval supremacy, while continental powers must defend primarily by land and rely on territorial consolidation and large standing armies.
“the first distinguishing characteristic of Maritime versus Continental Powers is whether you can or cannot defend primarily at Sea look at Ukraine they cannot defend primarily at Sea so uh if you can having a big Navy would be a thing for you and if you can uh can only defend by land then you need to go to Army”
The Soviet economy stagnated in the 1970s with growth rates of 1-2% per annum compared to the West; command economies systemically misallocate capital because units lie about inventory (claiming less than they have) and input requirements (claiming more than needed), making macroeconomic statistics garbage and preventing accurate capital allocation and pricing of goods.
“the Soviet economy has been growing from 1 to 2% less per anom compared to the west...in a command economy you have Moscow Central telling everybody what resources they get what they're going to produce but when you're unit on the bottom what you have to do is you lie about what inventory you have you say it's less than it is and then you lie about how many inputs you need...the macroeconomic uh statistics are garbage so people are allocating capital and labor Without Really knowing what their True Values are”
The Helsinki Accords (1975) included human rights clauses (the 'third basket') that were expected to be ignored, but instead sparked sustained human rights and dissident movements across the Warsaw Pact as activists held the Soviet government accountable to its own signed commitments. Jimmy Carter then amplified this strategy by making human rights a fundamental tenet of US foreign policy, helping destroy communist ideological belief and contributing to the Cold War's end.
“lo and behold this is the third basket of the human rights Clauses of the Helsinki Accords lo and behold human rights activists in the west and dissidents throughout the Warsaw Pact started trying to hold the Soviet C government accountable saying okay where is The Liberation that communism has promised uh why are we dealing with this uh dictatorship that's been delivered and by the way you signed all of these things”
Arnold Toynbee observed that 'civilizations die from suicide not by murder'—the USSR died more from its own systemic failures than from Western pressure. The empire collapsed because once democratic contagion reached one Warsaw Pact country and demonstrations spread, Soviet leaders lacked the stomach to deploy the violence necessary to suppress them, creating a domino effect of defection.
“here's Arnold Toby he was one of the finest historians of the 20th century observing that civilizations die from suicide not by murder so I've been talking about the murder right why other countries did to the Soviet Union now I'm going to get to the suicide the self-defeating things that the Soviets did”
The Maritime rules-based order created after WWII is positive-sum (where both parties to trade gain value) while the Continental order is negative-sum (where one side's gain comes from the other's loss through conquest and destruction), making maritime order structurally more efficient and sustainable—this is why the post-WWII international institutions (UN, IMF, NATO, EU predecessors, WTO) were designed to enforce maritime logic globally.
“instead the maritime order is positive sum right the the Continental order is negative some why because the loser's loss is less than the Winner's win because you're you're you're capturing damaged goods but in this world it's all about positive sum trade transactions where both parties win that's why you do trade”
Britain's grand strategy for defeating Napoleon (and later applied in WWII) involved six integrated elements: keep home economy growing to fund military and allies; shut down enemy trade and force enemies to rely on dwindling resources; find continental allies directly threatened by the enemy; secure peripheral theaters favoring maritime access; force the enemy to fight on divided attention; and only commit ground forces after the enemy is badly weakened and with allied support.
“first of all keep the home economy growing... second don't let the elep the enemy elephant forage you want to shut them right down and force them back for resources... then you want to rent an elephant you want to find the Continental power most directly threatened... then you want to have a theater peripheral to that Main theater... rule number five is don't take on the U certainly not as your opening move”
The United States nearly lost in Vietnam because Americans sent military personnel to fight in an away game where they had no strategic advantage, whereas during the Cold War, the US strategy was to avoid direct confrontation with the Soviet Union and instead use allied continental powers (Germany in WWII, China in Cold War) to fight the main front while America focused on peripheral theaters and economic superiority.
“The thing about Ray Dalio's approach is he treats the economy like a machine. He calls it the 'economic machine'”
Current US strategy for the second Cold War must adapt to nuclear deterrence reality: neither side can pursue the 'elephant hunting' strategy of WWII Britain because no side has an 'invulnerable home' from nuclear strike. Therefore, modern strategy requires: maintaining economic growth at home and in allied economies, closing down enemy trade through sanctions (not blockades), supporting continental power-threatened states peripherally and cautiously, and maintaining maritime alliances through international institutions.
“in the first half what I talked about elephant hunting uh I talked about how the British ran their elephant hunting strategy which they did quite well when they applied it to World War II but there's a huge difference now it's Precision Nuclear Strike none of us has an inv vulnerable home anymore and so by all means keep the economy running and probably your friend's econom is running and by all means close down enemy trade you probably don't want to do it with blockades and commerce rating much better with sanctions”
The Industrial Revolution upended both maritime and continental empires by introducing compounding economic growth, shifting the source of power from land to money derived from trade, industry, and commerce, which catastrophically disrupted traditional societies whose security paradigms no longer functioned.
“the Industrial Revolution upended both types of Empires because it introduces economic growth whose compounding effects were truly revolutionary... what it does is it changes the currency of international power formerly power was a function of land right... well once you have compounding growth the source of of uh Power in this world's money that's going to come from trade industry and commerce”
Arnold Toynbee observed that civilizations die from suicide not murder; the Soviet Union lost the Cold War through self-defeating actions (empire collapse, economic stagnation, ideological undermining) more than through Western pressure.
“here's Arnold Toby he was one of the finest historians of the 20th century observing that civilizations die from suicide not by murder so I've been talking about the murder right why other countries did to the Soviet Union now I'm going to get to the suicide the self-defeating things that the Soviets did”
The Soviet economy stagnated in the 1970s and grew only 1-2% annually compared to the West in the decade before Gorbachev took power; this reflected structural problems where central planning created systematic lying about inventory and input needs, causing massive capital and labor misallocation with no visibility into consumer preferences or productivity.
“the Soviet economy has been growing from 1 to 2% less per anom compared to the west... in a command economy you have Moscow Central telling everybody what resources they get what they're going to produce but when you're unit on the bottom what you have to do is you lie about what inventory you have... everyone's lying to each other so the macroeconomic uh statistics are garbage so people are allocating capital and labor Without Really knowing what their True Values are”
Alexis de Tocqueville observed that the most dangerous moment for a bad government is when it begins to reform; Gorbachev's reform efforts (glasnost and perestroika) based on incorrect assumptions about history and Eastern European loyalty accelerated rather than prevented Soviet collapse.
“here is a very famous man uh Alexis dville and a very famous quotation from him... the most dangerous moment for bad government is when it begins to reform and people in Russia disagree about many things but they agree at least on this one point that gorbachov's role was absolutely Central in what how it all turned out”
Presidents must make decisions whose implications take a long time to become visible; the Interstate Highway System invested by Eisenhower was partly designed for national defense with wide bridges for landing planes, but its strategic implications (economic development) took decades to manifest.
“a lot of things are not visible until the fullness of time... President Eisenhower invests in the highway system and part of that the idea was to have the highways wide enough so you could land planes anywhere you want well not anywhere they're Bridges but... actually what that does is allows all kinds of Economic Development all over the United States but it takes a long time for all that to happen”
The Silk Road and control of trade routes: The Silk Road connected East and West trade for millennia; whoever controlled the Western terminus collected tolls; the Muslim Conquest settled this; later the Ottomans controlled the Western terminus; Spain and Portugal bypassed this by seeking an ocean route to Asia, bumped into the New World, and found gold/silver, diverting them to heavy metals instead of luxury goods.
“the Silk Road connected these two worlds east and west and there has been much money to be made on East West trade for a very long time and whoever controlled the Western Terminus there a big toll booth made a lot of money for a while the Muslim Conquest settled that problem but then uh for a while no one controlled the rims and this is when the Crusades take place which is in part of who's going to control the toll booth uh for a long time the Ottomans settled that that problem they controlled it and therefore the Spanish and the Portuguese got creative they decided to get to Asia the long way around except they bumped into the new world new to them not so much to other people bumped into gold and silver and decided forget about the high-end dinner where they're going to do heavy metal instead”
The United States started as a typical continental power with the Monroe Doctrine, territorial expansion through regional wars (against Mexico and Native Americans), and Manifest Destiny ideology, but shifted toward maritime power in the late 19th century under the influence of Mahan's ideas, transforming its geographic dependence on trade into an advantage through naval superiority and global commerce networks.
“the United States started out as tradition typical Continental power here's President Monroe the Monroe Doctrine typical Continental power steers of influence telling the Europeans stay out of the Americas it's ours and here's how the United States expanded again like a typical Continental power it did a series of re Regional Wars with Mexico the longest counterinsurgency in US history fought against the Native Americans uh but the twist that Americans liked was checkbook de diplomacy you know paying money to people and that's what the Louisiana Purchase and uh buying Alaska were all about”
A competing explanation for Soviet Cold War loss is that Boris Yeltsin, Gorbachev's successor, deliberately ended the Soviet Union by removing Article 6 of the Soviet Constitution (eliminating Communist Party monopoly on power) and then signing the Belovezha Accords with Belarus and Ukraine, which formally dissolved the Soviet Union—suggesting that Cold War loss was not historical inevitability but deliberate choice.
“others would say no no no it's not sins of omission still a sins of commission but by this charmer Boris yelton who's gorbachov's successor what did buddies do he got rid of I think it's article six in the Soviet Constitution which had given the Communist Party the Monopoly of power now you're going to have multi-party competitions and also he got together with the heads of belus and Ukraine and signed a formal document the Bel Accords that dissolves the Soviet Union so by this way of reasoning it's suicide on purpose”
Margaret Thatcher opposed German unification (fearing it would eclipse Britain) and wanted Soviet troops to remain in Germany for the duration, while France opposed unification but eventually gained solace through negotiating the Maastricht Treaty that created the EU and committed to bringing Eastern European countries into both the EU and European Community—these negotiations over German reunification shaped the post-Cold War institutional structure.
“this is um prime minister Margaret thater of Britain and president of of France neither one of them wanted to see a unified Germany why because it would Eclipse their own countries they were correct uh but so France midan uh eventually finds Solace by uh negotiating the MRI treaty that's going to create uh the European Union that's going to bring in all the Eastern European countries”
US Cold War strategy can be extracted from examining four presidencies (Ford/Carter, Reagan, Nixon) to show that beneath different approaches (détente, military buildup, opening to China), the consistent policy objective was: unrestricted free trade, liberal democracy, and containment of communism. Both political parties agreed on these objectives despite disagreeing on strategies.
“the policy objective was relentless free trade democracy containment of Communism the two political parties Republicans and Democrats agreed on this they had different strategies how to achieve it but they agreed on that”
Since the Industrial Revolution, there has been gradual expansion (with ups and downs) of a maritime trading order based on negotiating rules for trade; this is catastrophic for traditional societies many of which have never gotten over it, particularly China, which never liked the incoming maritime order in the 19th century and remains unhappy about it today.
“ever since uh the Industrial Revolution there's been a gradual expansion with ups and downs of this Maritime trading order which is all about negotiating rule often quite acrimoniously but negotiating rules for trade but it's a catastrophic uh event for traditional societies many of which have never gotten over it the Chinese never like the incoming Maritime order in the 19th century and they aren't happy about it now”
In the continental security model, power is a function of land, neighbors are dangerous even if small (instability spreads across borders), and the primary mission of an army is to keep the ruling regime in power—making the army function as a praetorian guard—with the second mission being preventing defections from the empire, and border defense only third.
“in this sort of uh world power is a function of land neighbors are dangerous even the itty bitty ones can cause problems because the instability can spread over the border... the Army's number one mission is to keep the ruling regime in power so if you think people's Liberation Army you think it's it's the petorian guard of the Chinese Communist Party the second most important thing for your army is to prevent any uh defections from the Empire and then only third is at border defense”
Contemporary continental powers (Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, North Korea) have incoherent alliance structures compared to WWII axis powers: each has different primary enemies (Russia's is Ukraine, China's is Taiwan/India, Iran's is Israel, Pakistan's is India, NK's is South Korea), and they make insufficient sacrifices for each other. This prevents them from forming unified coalitions against maritime powers, whereas WWII axis had agreed on Germany as primary theater and enemy.
“it isn't a coherent Alliance System you've got basically a bunch of Eur Asian dictators sure they share the United States as a shared secondary enemy but think who the primary enemies are Russia's primary enemy right now is Ukraine China's primary enemy I don't know is it Taiwan is in India or if they do some Belt Road something is it's somebody up there but it's not us uh Iran's primary enemy is Israel Pakistan's is India North Korea South Korea none of this aligns for anyone to make meaningful sacrifices for the others whereas you compare the World War II Alliance System uh there's an agreement Germany primary theater Germany primary enemy”
The 1969 Sino-Soviet border war over islands in the Amur River prompted the USSR to ask the US permission to use nuclear weapons, which the US refused; this reshuffled great power alignments so that China and Russia became each other's primary adversary, forcing the USSR into a bankrupting militarization of its Far Eastern frontier.
“in 1969 Russia and China were going at it in a border war and over some islands in the Amore River and the Russians approached the United States and said would it be okay if we nuke these people and the United States said no way okay and Mal figured it out the one that wants to Nuke you is is the primary adversary... After this is over China and Russia are each other's primary adversaries and the United States decides since it's the Swing Vote let's go gang up with China against Russia and this forces Russia into a bankrupting militarization of its law Frontier”
Alfred Thayer Mahan identified six prerequisites for maritime power: first, a moat (insulation from attack); second, a dense internal transportation grid for peacetime commerce; third, reliable egress by sea for wartime naval deployment; fourth, dense coastal population to run the commerce-driven economy; fifth, a commerce-driven economy itself; and sixth, stable government institutions with transparent executive transfer and rule of law.
“Alfred the Mahan who is by far the most famous person ever associated with this college uh of of enduring International uh influence uh he looks at the world and thinks well actually it's not so much uh con Continental consolidation that is the origin of power and position in this world but the the wealth uring from Maritime trade and he said there are six prerequisites for playing this game of Maritime security Paradigm number one you need a moat you need insulation from Attack number two you need a dense inter internal Transportation grid to get the goods out in peace time you need reliable egress by sea to get the Navy out in Wartime you need dense Coastal population these are the people running this Commerce driven economy and you need uh the Commerce driven economy that goes with them and you also need stable government institutions because uh this is going to mean you have stable laws that uh promote uh Commerce and also promote the Navy”
The post-WWII international institutions (UN, IMF, NATO, EU, WTO) were deliberately built by the Greatest Generation to prevent war and depression through institution-building on a global scale, creating the 'insurance system' for the maritime order until Putin's invasion of Ukraine began to overturn it.
“World War I generation who were conscripts when they were young... decided that the solution to World War and great depressions was institution building on a global scale and they're the ones who really rapidly build uh they get the the UN going the IMF NATO you're going to get the predecessor institutions of the uh EU and World Trade Organization to hold the peace institutionally and it did in the industrialized World until Vlad the bad uh worked his magic and Ukraine”
Gorbachev believed that without the Warsaw Pact there would be no NATO, and without Comecon there would be no EU, miscalculating that the Western alliance would disband if the Soviet threat vanished; he also believed the US would oppose German reunification as a continental power would, so he went on vacation during the reunification process.
“gorbachov believed if there was no Warsaw pack there would be no NATO that NATO would disappear... he also thought that the United States like a continental power no great Powers don't want them and would oppose German unification so gorbachov goes on vacation while all the unrest is happening Germany poor life choice because what's actually going on is President Bush and Chancellor Cole of Germany are coordinating on the fastest reunification of Germany ever”
Continental empires operate through binary coercion—either neighboring peoples adopt the empire's culture and become 'honorary' members, or they face annihilation or enslavement—as evidenced by how Han Chinese laid waste to competing Zungar and Mongol empires and continue suppressing Uyghurs.
“this is how Continental Empires run business uh either you get with the program or they will kill you right it's a binary choice either you become Han honorary Han or that's it and in our own day I believe the Wagers are slated for Gen side this is not a world for the faint-hearted”
Ronald Reagan's military buildup, combined with estimates that the Soviet military consumed up to 70% of the Soviet economy (compared to only 55% for Nazi Germany), so suffocated Soviet economic quality of life that the USSR could not sustain the arms race.
“what Ronald Reagan did a big military buildup and the Russians at the end of the Cold War some have estimated that as much as 70% of their economy was devoted to the military and it was absolutely suffocating and if you think about the Germans the Nazis in Hot War they only spent 55% of their economy on this stuff and so it was a problem for the Soviets”
Georgi Arbatov, Soviet expert on the United States, observed that Reagan's strategy of funding anti-communist insurgencies worldwide caused the Soviets their own 'Vietnam' problem in Afghanistan, with both sides funding insurgencies as a wealth-destroying strategy.
“here's GGI arbatov who was the Soviet Prime expert on the United States who's watching Reagan funding anti-communist uh caner insurgencies all over the world this is how you destroy wealth by having both sides funding insurgencies and uh in Afghanistan he go yeah we got our Vietnam uh problem for us”
The US foreign policy objective during the Cold War was consistent across administrations: relentless free trade, democracy, and containment of communism, with Republicans and Democrats agreeing on objectives while differing on strategies.
“the policy objective was relentless free trade democracy containment of Communism the two political parties Republicans and Democrats agreed on this they had different strategies how to achieve it but they agreed on that”
The Soviet leadership had no confidence in the loyalty of the East German Army or their own forces when confronted with mass demonstrations; Anatoly Kovalev, Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister, noted the Soviets had no confidence whether East German or Soviet forces would shoot demonstrators or the regime.
“here is anatol koval's take on it he was longtime Deputy foreign minister of the Soviet un look and there was no confidence whatsoever uh the Soviets had no confidence whatsoever whom the East uh German Army is going to shoot us or the demonstrators”
Soviet satellite states dependent on Soviet subsidies (funded by oil revenues) became economically dysfunctional when oil prices collapsed in the late 1970s; the Soviet Union itself had derived up to 55% of its government budget from oil revenues, making it unable to subsidize failing satellite states while managing its own internal nationalist uprisings.
“in the late 70s commodity prices including oil go way down and these places depend on that the Soviet Union for some years as much of its government budget as 55% was based on oil so not only did the non-performing pals have no money and need bigger subsidies but the Soviet Union was less in a position to subsidize them... Soviet I's own internal nationalities simultaneously erupt and they all want to secede”
Marshall Sergeyev, looking at NATO's relative wealth and Soviet economic implosion, concluded 'we can't counter these people we've got to figure out some way of calling it off,' suggesting Soviet elites recognized they had lost the economic competition.
“here's Marshall Aram yazov looking at all this and go look and NATO they're they're just Rich we can't counter these people we've got to figure out some way of calling it off”
Boris Yeltsin, Gorbachev's successor, dissolved the Soviet Union by removing Article 6 from the Soviet Constitution (which had guaranteed Communist Party monopoly) and signing the Belovezha Accords with the heads of Belarus and Ukraine, which formally dissolved the Soviet Union, representing 'suicide on purpose.'
“others would say no no no it's not sins of omission still a sins of commission but by this charmer Boris yelton who's gorbachov's successor what did buddies do he got rid of I think it's article six in the Soviet Constitution which had given the Communist Party the Monopoly of power... also he got together with the heads of belus and Ukraine and signed a formal document the Bel Accords that dissolves the Soviet Union”
George H.W. Bush and Helmut Kohl were ideally positioned leaders who coordinated tag-team diplomacy to achieve German reunification: Bush had Congressional experience, China ambassadorship, UN representation, and 8 years as Reagan's Vice President; Kohl was West Germany's longest-serving Chancellor since Bismarck and negotiated reunification by paying East Germany and Hungary to open borders and allowing Eastern Germans to vote with their feet.
“George Bush uh quite a resume he'd had stints in Congress a representative China representative of the UN and then of course he'd been vice president under Reagan for 8 eight years so he's very well qualified and helmet Cole was the longest serving Chancellor of of West Germany... they worked on fast-tracking this as soon as k m Cole came into Power he decided to unify with uh East Germany by one tourist at a time... he also gave the hungarians big money to let East Germans out out through the Austrian border”
Bush and Kohl moved so rapidly on German reunification and offered such large financial inducements to Gorbachev that he could not react; the Soviet economy was imploding and desperately needed cash, so they secured Gorbachev's consent to German unification, unification with West Germany, and both halves joining NATO—three successive concessions the Soviets would never have granted otherwise.
“and they worked on fast-tracking this as soon as k m Cole came into Power... they are doing it so fast and they're offering really big money to gorbachov that he can't react and he's his the Soviet economy is imploding and they desperately need the cash so they get gorbachov to agree first to German unification second to unification with West Germany and NATO and thirdly unification with both halves in NATO”
Margaret Thatcher of Britain opposed German reunification because it would eclipse Britain's own power; France (under Mitterrand) eventually secured the Maastricht Treaty creating the EU to manage German power through integration; Thatcher lost her bid to retain Soviet troops in Germany, which she believed would constrain German power.
“France midan uh eventually finds Solace by uh negotiating the MRI treaty that's going to create uh the European Union that's going to bring in all the Eastern European countries and merge it with the European Community but Margaret Thatcher just plain lost out she wanted to retain some Soviet troops in uh Germany for the duration imagine dealing with Putin today if they'd had their way they didn't”
Anatoly Chernayev, Gorbachev's foreign policy adviser, said Gorbachev's belief that granting freedom would lead Eastern Europeans to adopt 'socialism with a human face' was an 'enormous mistake' because 'these countries brutally turned their back on us'—they had experienced Soviet oppression, leadership assassination, wealth extraction, and imposed non-performing economic models without escape.
“here's CH of gord thought that bringing freedom to our Eastern European satellites... would lead them to adopt socialism with a human face whatever that is uh he made an enormous mistake because these countries brutally turned their back on us uh it was totally unexpected for us really you invade the neighbors you kill their leaders you siphon off their wealth you impose a non-performing economic model on them and then you never leave and you wonder why these people don't like you”
Poland's Solidarity movement gained unprecedented legitimacy and strength in 1988 as the economy collapsed; roundtable talks in February 1989 led to contested elections where Solidarity won all but one seat it could compete for, and the 'none of the above' option on the ballot won the remaining party-designated seats, ending communist legitimacy in Poland.
“in 1988 it gets really bad because the economy is a mess... solidarity hits the streets and the government is afraid of the economy going to freef fall so they offer solidarity a place at the bargaining table... The uh Communist party in Poland decides to hold elections... what happens is solidarity wins everything seat but one for which it could compete and in the party designated seats the party only gets three and who gets all the rest of them the Box on the ballot called none of the above that's the end of Communist Party legitimacy in Poland”
Maritime powers require six prerequisites to successfully execute maritime security strategy: a moat (insulation from attack), a dense internal transportation grid for goods, reliable egress by sea for wartime naval operations, dense coastal population to run commerce-driven economies, a commerce-driven economy itself, and stable government institutions to ensure predictable laws and naval support.
“he said there are six prerequisites for playing this game of Maritime security Paradigm number one you need a moat you need insulation from Attack number two you need a dense inter internal Transportation grid to get the goods out in peace time you need reliable egress by sea to get the Navy out in Wartime you need dense Coastal population these are the people running this Commerce driven economy and you need uh the Commerce driven economy that goes with them and you also need stable government institutions”
The World War I generation (conscripts during WWI, raised during the Great Depression, strategic leaders in WWII) decided that the solution to war and depression was institution-building on a global scale, creating the UN, IMF, NATO, and predecessors of the EU and WTO to hold the peace institutionally; this system maintained peace in the industrialized world until Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
“the greatest Generation the World War I generation not the World War II who claimed it a World War I generation who were conscripts when they were young trying to raise families that gr the great during the Great Depression and then their the Strategic Leaders of World War II uh they decided that...the solution to World War and great depressions was institution building on a global scale and they're the ones who really rapidly build uh they get the the UN going the IMF NATO you're going to get the predecessor institutions of the uh EU and World Trade Organization to hold the peace institutionally and it did in the industrialized World until Vlad the bad uh worked his magic and Ukraine”
The Silk Road connected east and west trade for a very long time; whoever controlled the western terminus (where it met Mediterranean trade) collected enormous tolls; the Muslim conquest disrupted this, leading to the Crusades (partly a competition over who would control the toll booth); the Ottomans eventually controlled it, prompting the Spanish and Portuguese to seek Asia by circumnavigating Africa.
“the Silk Road connected these two worlds east and west and there has been much money to be made on East West trade for a very long time and whoever controlled the Western Terminus there a big toll booth made a lot of money for a while the Muslim Conquest settled that problem but then uh for a while no one controlled the rims and this is when the Crusades take place which is in part of who's going to control the toll booth uh for a long time the Ottomans settled that that problem”
Those who claim Ronald Reagan won the Cold War point to his military buildup and the exhaustion strategy it imposed on the USSR, which was devoting as much as 70% of its economy to military spending (compared to Nazi Germany's 55% at the height of WWII), creating permanent economic crisis. Soviet Ambassador Valentin Falin acknowledged this exhaustion strategy wrecked Soviet quality of life; Soviet expert Georgy Arbatov noted Reagan's funding of anti-communist insurgencies worldwide destroyed wealth on both sides.
“Ronald Reagan did a big military buildup and the Russians at the end of the Cold War some have estimated that as much as 70% of their economy was devoted to the military and it was absolutely suffocating and if you think about the Germans the Nazis in Hot War they only spent 55% of their economy on this stuff”
The Sino-Soviet border war of 1969 was the pivot point of Cold War strategy: when Russia approached the US about attacking China with nuclear weapons and the US refused, Mao recognized Russia as the primary adversary. The US then exploited this by forming an alliance with China against the USSR, forcing Russia into 'bankrupting militarization' of its far eastern frontier on top of its already-militarized European frontier—a financial strain that contributed decisively to Soviet overextension and collapse.
“in 1969 Russia and China were going at it in a border war and over some islands in the Amore River and the Russians approached the United States and said would it be okay if we nuke these people and the United States said no way okay and Mal figured it out the one that wants to Nuke you is is the primary adversary and this reshuffles the uh the great Powers P prior to this China um the United States have been the primary adversary of China and Russia after this is over China and Russia are each other's primary adversaries and the United States decides since it's the Swing Vote let's go gang up with China against Russia and this forces Russia into a bankrupting militarization of its law Frontier with China”
The nuclear-powered attack submarine targeting Soviet nuclear submarines in their home bastions under Carter and especially Reagan created a perception among Soviet military leaders that they had lost reliable second-strike capability, causing existential fear. Marshal Akhromeyev conveyed that the USSR could not counter the submarine threat technologically or financially, forcing them to seek an end to the Cold War.
“there was a much more aggressive strategy of targeting uh Soviet nuclear subs in their homeat bastions and the Soviets were scared to death that they didn't have a reliable second strike capability and so here you have our Marshall acev who is in the United States telling his host uh we're surrounded uh that's why we're concerned we know that you know where our subs are and we don't know where yours are you you the United States Navy they the problem we go Navy uh so the USSR could not counter technologically or financially the US submarine threat and to its ralit nuclear forces so some would argue this is why they had to settle in the Cold War”
In the continental security paradigm, there is no insurance policy: if a power miscalculates strategy, its entire civilization can disappear forever, as happened to Imperial Russia and Imperial China; this existential fragility means continental powers cannot afford to lose wars the way maritime powers can.
“in this world if you botch strategy your Known World can just just vanish forever and this is what happened to Imperial Russia Imperial China and many of these great civil Iz ation of Eurasia...the Continental world is a world without insurance policies”
When Poland held elections on June 4, 1989 (the same day Deng Xiaoping called out tanks in Tiananmen), the Solidarity party won all seats it could compete for, and in the Communist Party designated seats, only 3 out of many went to party members—the rest went to 'none of the above,' ending Communist Party legitimacy in Poland and triggering democratic reforms across Eastern Europe.
“the Communist party in Poland decides to hold elections and they those elections were held on the very same day that dun sha ping calls out the tanks...solidarity wins everything seat but one for which it could compete and in the party designated seats the party only gets three and who gets all the rest of them the Box on the ballot called none of the above that's the end of Communist Party legitimacy in Poland”
East German border guard Gunter Schabowski, at a press conference on November 9, 1989, was asked about new travel regulations and, not knowing the actual policy, winged it by saying 'immediately'; huge crowds massed at the Berlin Wall, border guards opened it rather than use force, and within a week over half of East Germany had visited West Berlin—a pivot point with no going back.
“gter shabi is at a press conference and he's being asked well what are the travel regulations going to be implemented and so instead of admitting he didn't know he winged it and he said immediately well immediately huge crowds started massing at the six Gates uh of East Berlin and at one of them the Border guards decided that discretion is the better part of valor they opened it and people just streamed into West Berlin and within a week uh over half the country had visited West Berlin”
Bush and Helmut Kohl coordinated the fastest possible reunification of Germany; Kohl paid East Germany and Hungary to liberalize travel restrictions, and Bush and Kohl offered massive financial incentives to Gorbachev to accept German unification in NATO, moving so fast that Gorbachev could not react; Gorbachev went on vacation while this unfolded, a poor strategic choice.
“helmet started paying them big money to let more people out and he also gave the hungarians big money...he and uh Bush do tag team diplomacy where they are doing it so fast and they're offering really big money to gorbachov...gorbachov goes on vacation while all the unrest is happening Germany poor life choice”
The United States' initial geographic posture was as a typical continental power (Monroe Doctrine, territorial expansion through regional wars and 'Manifest Destiny'); but in the late 19th century, with Mahan's influence, the US transformed itself into a maritime power oriented toward sea trade and Navy-based strategy.
“the United States started out as tradition typical Continental power here's President Monroe the Monroe Doctrine typical Continental power steers of influence...the twist that Americans liked was checkbook de diplomacy...Americans in the 19th century consider themselves an Empire proud of it but the view changes in the late 19th century and here Alfred the Mahan”
Iraq was a major Soviet client state that owed the Soviet Union 10-13 billion dollars; Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iraq (1990) threatened to disrupt the Soviet-US negotiations over German unification; President Bush carefully limited the US response to avoid further upsetting the imploding Soviet Union and forcing Gorbachev to withdraw support for German unification.
“complicating Factor uh a month and a half before the reunification treaty was signed you get sodam uh Hussein invading Iraq and Iraq was a major Soviet client State uh owed the Soviets between 10 and 13 billion do...Bush finesses this problem he doesn't go too far into Iraq to upset the Soviets”
The non-aligned movement (Soviet client states in Africa and Asia) became economically burdensome as commodity prices (especially oil) collapsed in the late 1970s; the Soviet Union was simultaneously subsidizing these non-performing allies while facing internal nationalities' demands to secede; with no ability to suppress both external satellites and internal secessionist movements, the Soviets faced multiple simultaneous crises.
“if you look at this map circa 1960 all those tempting green places they're about to become independent...Soviet Union...in the late 70s commodity prices including oil go way down...the Soviet Union for some years as much of its government budget as 55% was based on oil...not only did the non-performing pals have no money and need bigger subsidies but the Soviet Union was less in a position to subsidize them...Soviet I's own internal nationalities simultaneously erupt”
The containerization revolution (Malcolm McLean's standardized shipping containers that reduced loading times and costs by orders of magnitude) is what actually drives modern maritime dominance, making sea shipping exponentially cheaper than land-based alternatives—ultra-large container ships carry 21,000+ containers worth over a billion dollars in cargo in one voyage, versus 600 containers per train, making Belt and Road overland initiatives economically uncompetitive.
“Malcolm mlan really sets things moving on the mar expansion of the maritime order he ran a trucking company and he took his trucks minus the chassis and put them on ships what we call uh containers and this radically reduced shipping times loading times so it becomes so much cheaper to send things by sea than by land”
The Han Chinese consolidated prime real estate in China through conquest and elimination of competing Zunghar and Mongol empires—a pattern exemplifying how continental empires enforce binary choices on subject populations: either assimilate to the dominant ethnic/political group or face destruction, with no middle ground.
“the Han occupy all the prime real estate in the curious might ask uh how did that happen and the answer would be they laid waste to the competing zunar and Mongol Empires but you haven't heard about the zunar the uh H Ching Dynasty wiped out them out year uh hundreds of years ago and this is how Continental Empires run business uh either you get with the program or they will kill you right it's a binary choice either you become Han honorary Han or that's it”
The Dutch pioneered trade-focused maritime empire but were vulnerable to land-based European defeats; the British became the true pioneers of maritime empire because they transformed their geographic dependence on trade into an advantage: by making money on trade, they could fund navies; if anyone invades, the Navy drowns them at sea, providing homeland defense while adversaries waste wealth on destruction.
“the Dutch are the real people who focus on an Empire that's all about trade and their trading bases their problem was their exposed position in Europe so that they could be defeated in Europe so the real P pioneers of Maritime Empire the British so whereas every other country in Europe had to maintain a large potentially cou generating standing army that's expensive and that also is probably going to want to have economic policies privileged the Army Britain uh could take its disadvantage its dependence on trade and transform it into an advantage that if they could make lots and lots of money on trade that would fund a Navy if anyone tries to invade you drowned at Sea so you've got homeline defense and meanwhile while your adversaries are busy destroying wealth at a really rapid clip Britain is going to maximize its money so this is a prevent defeat strategy”
Anatoly Kovalev (Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister) acknowledged Soviet leadership had no confidence in whether their own East German or Polish armies would shoot demonstrators or sided with them, revealing the alliance system had no basis in trust or coercive reliability.
“anatol koval's take on it he was longtime Deputy foreign minister of the Soviet un look and there was no confidence whatsoever uh the Soviets had no confidence whatsoever whom the East uh German Army is going to shoot us or the demonstrators same thing for the Poes and the hungarians great with an alliance system like this you got troubles”
The second Cold War began between 2012 and 2014, marked by Vladimir Putin disposing of term limits in 2012, Xi Jinping coming to power, and Putin's 2014 invasion of Ukraine, after which both leaders emphasized their rejection of the rules-based international order.
“I believe my Reckoning is it began between 2012 and 14 why those dates 2012 is when Vlad the bad comes to power actually he disposes term limits that year and uh and then you get Xi Jinping coming into power and then 2014 is when uh Vlad the bad moves into Ukraine”
The rules for success in the continental security paradigm include: first, avoid two-front wars with multiple neighbors; second, avoid great-power neighbors because today's friends become tomorrow's foes; third, take on neighbors sequentially, setting them to fail, destabilizing rising threats, and absorbing buffer zones when opportunity arrives; fourth, alternatively, sow mutual resentments among neighbors with disinformation so they weaken each other while you play the jackal, stealing the kill.
“rule number one neighbors are numerous so no twoof front Wars if multiple neighbors try to come get you you're in trouble secondly no great power neighbors why because today's friend can be tomorrow's fo and that will spell trouble so what do you do you take on your neighbors sequentially you set them to fail up to fail you destabilize the rising ingest the failing set up buffer zone in between and you wait the opportune moment to pounce and absorb that is Vladimir Putin's game um better yet you get the neighbors to do the work for you you seow their Mutual resentments by deluging them with fake news and anything else you can think of so that Russia can act to play the role of a jackal state to steal the Kill made by others”
The second Cold War will likely persist for generations because changing how other people think requires changing their will, which takes time. Gorbachev's and Xi Jinping's generations (in their earlier careers) changed their minds about what they wanted; it will likely take the current Russian and Chinese leadership generations a long time to change theirs. Therefore, sustained maritime strategy (not quick military solutions) is the realistic approach.
“the current cold war is going to be going on for Generations because uh you don't change how other people think they decide uh changing what they thought gorbachov and his Generations changed their minds of what they wanted to do dung sha ping and his generation changed their minds of what they wanted to do and it'll probably take the Russians and Chinese a long time to change um”
International trade during the inter-Cold War period (post-WWII to 1990s) demonstrated the miracle of maritime order: international trade lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, generating continuous compounding growth. However, this period has ended; the maritime expansion phase is over, replaced by great power funding and counter-funding of insurgencies globally, which is 'incredibly wealth reducing.'
“if you look at the inter Cold War period or even uh at the end of World War II you look at the skyrocketing international trade that uh lifts hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and in the inner Cold War period um from the the 90s upwards look at it it just goes up up and away and this is the miracle of our times but I'm sad to tell you it's over the inner Cold War period over uh everybody the uh there's going to be this funding and counter funding of insurgencies the globe over which is going to be incredibly wealth reducing”
Continental powers suffer vastly higher casualty rates in war because most fighting occurs on home territory, particularly if they lose, exposing civilian populations to no sanctuary from combat; comparing World War II statistics, maritime powers (Britain, United States) suffered far fewer military and especially civilian deaths than continental powers (France, Italy), with the difference growing sharply when civilian deaths are included.
“these are deaths in World War II lot of axis uh deaths military deaths and then a lot of uh Allied landow deaths High numbers but when you compare Britain and France the uh Britain and the United States the two Maritime Powers with France and Italy by some statistics uh they suffer less and France France wasn't even the in the war that long and then if you add in civilian deaths the difference between the maritime deaths and the Continental deaths just Skyrocket and why is this because in the Continental World a a lot of the fighting happens on home territory particularly if you lose so you have your citizens have no Sanctuary from this”
In World War II, death statistics reveal stark differences between maritime and continental powers: Britain and the US (maritime) suffered far fewer military and civilian deaths than continental powers like France, Italy, or (especially) the Soviet Union; this is because maritime powers can choose when and where to fight, while continental powers must fight on their own territory, which exposes civilian populations to violence.
“so these are deaths in World War II lot of axis uh deaths military deaths and then a lot of uh Allied landow deaths High numbers but when you compare Britain and France the uh Britain and the United States the two Maritime Powers with France and Italy by some statistics uh they suffer less...and then if you add in civilian deaths the difference between the maritime deaths and the Continental deaths just Skyrocket”
Gorbachev made critical strategic mistakes based on false assumptions: he believed history was irreversibly moving toward communism (so Eastern Europe would naturally embrace socialism), that Eastern Europeans would see him as a liberator rather than Russia as a conqueror, that Soviet withdrawal from Eastern Europe would cause NATO to disappear (it didn't), that the EU/European Community would not include Eastern Europeans (it did), and that the US would oppose German reunification (it supported it)—these miscalculations were catastrophic.
“gorbachov made his decisions based on a number of uh incorrect assumptions first uh that history was irreversible it's always forward towards communism and of course Eastern Europe madebe U-turn back to capitalism”
East German leader Erich Honecker had been forced out due to his disaster strategy of living off debt since 1971; on November 9, 1989, a border official inadvertently opened the Berlin Wall when press spokesman Günter Schabowski mistakenly announced immediate travel rules without confirming implementation details.
“Eric huker was already out of a job because his disaster uh strategy of living off debt since when he came in power I think it's 71 or something had just wrecked the place... at one of them the Border guards decided that discretion is the better part of valor they opened it and people just streamed into West Berlin and within a week uh over half the country had visited West Berlin”
It is better for the West to have more friends rather than fewer friends in the current geopolitical struggle; the maritime order, despite its flaws, is the best bet for working with allies and friends through international institutions to coordinate against authoritarian continental powers.
“it is better off to have more friends rather than fewer friends in this kind of world and the maritime order as uh flawed as it is uh is your best bet to work with uh allies and Friends through International institutions to coordinate against these crazy people”
In the first Cold War, the West maintained prosperity while compounding communist poverty: Japan, South Korea, and Western allies parried the Soviet nuclear threat without using nuclear weapons, maintained economic growth, and as the maritime order compounded economic growth, communists lived in compounded poverty of their own making—a sustainable long-term strategy.
“the uh goal of maintaining Prosperity uh hasn't changed uh if you think about how it worked last time around the West Japan South Korea all uh together parried the nuclear threat no through a nuclear a nuclear bomb at anyone all maintained economic growth and so as the maritime world is compounding economic growth the Communists are living in compounded Poverty of their own making uh and so as Les you despair on all of this understand that people in the west during the Cold War not everybody but most people were living quite well certainly much better than compared to how the Communists were living so that uh there was Prosperity while all this was going on”
China and Russia cannot successfully operate as maritime powers because neither possesses Mahan's six prerequisites: neither has defensive moats (both are surrounded by numerous hostile or potentially hostile neighbors), neither has reliable sea access (both surrounded by narrow, island-cluttered coastal seas controlled by neighboring states), Russia lacks dense coastal population and a commerce-driven economy, and neither has stable government institutions (lacking regular transparent transfers of executive power).
“if you look at China and Russia Today neither one of them has a full list of six start with moat they most certainly do not have Moes either one of them in fact they each have more neighbors than any other two countries on the planet and a lot of those places don't much like them for excellent reasons moreover uh China has an improving internal transport ation grid but Russia's remains lamentable neither one has reliable access by sea because they're all surrounded by um narrow Island cluttered uh Coastal seas that are surrounded by all kinds of neighbors that shut down in Wartime”
International trade lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty during the post-Cold War era, but this trend has ended as the period of inter-Cold War cooperation has given way to funding and counter-funding of insurgencies globally, which is wealth-reducing.
“look at the skyrocketing international trade that uh lifts hundreds of millions of people out of poverty... from the the 90s upwards look at it it just goes up up and away and this is the miracle of our times but I'm sad to tell you it's over the inner Cold War period over uh everybody the uh there's going to be this funding and counter funding of insurgencies the globe over which is going to be incredibly wealth reducing”
The second Cold War began between 2012 and 2014: in 2012, Vladimir Putin removed term limits from the Russian Constitution, and Xi Jinping came to power in China; in 2014, Putin invaded Ukraine. Since then, both Putin and Xi have signaled they are not interested in the rules-based order and have alternative plans.
“I believe my Reckoning is it began between 2012 and 14 why those dates 2012 is when Vlad the bad comes to power actually he disposes term limits that year and uh and then you get Xi Jinping coming into power and then 2014 is when uh Vlad the bad moves into Ukraine and and ever since Putin and she have been emphasizing that they're not particularly interested in this rules based order and have other plans for us”
The maritime order is positive-sum (both parties to trade win) while the continental order is negative-sum (winner's gain less than loser's loss because conquered territories are damaged), making the maritime order the only sustainable model for long-term human prosperity.
“the Continental order is negative some why because the loser's loss is less than the Winner's win because you're you're you're capturing damaged goods but in this world it's all about positive sum trade transactions where both parties win that's why you do trade”
Chinese claim to territories through Yuan and Qing dynasties is self-contradictory: the Han ethnic majority claims 'historic lands' by invoking Yuan (Mongol) and Qing (Manchu) dynasties when, ironically, Han people were subjugated under those foreign-ruled empires—meaning China's territorial nationalism is based on claiming lands acquired when Han were ruled as conquered subjects.
“and so what's quite ironic today when the Chinese government starts claiming what its historic lands are they go back to the Mongol Yen Dynasty or the Manu Ching Dynasty when quite ironically the Han were subjugated people”
Maritime world objectives are largely negative (preventing bad outcomes) rather than positive (conquering territory)—the Navy's primary peacetime mission is preventing destruction of global trading systems and preventing violations of sovereignty through deterrence and blockade. This makes maritime success invisible when it works (nothing happens, no wars, trade flows smoothly), which leads observers to underestimate maritime power effectiveness.
“on a good day Navy day absolutely nothing happens looks like the Navy is doing nothing but it's incredibly important”
US Cold War strategy consisted of five elements extracted from the period's history: (1) extensive military buildup with allies; (2) broad strategic communications campaigns (Radio Free Europe, Voice of America, etc.) to get accurate news to subject populations; (3) alliance building for friends and alliance-busting for enemies; (4) amplifying overextension of enemies (Russia's inefficiency at occupying others indefinitely, abusive behavior); (5) leveraging geographic advantage without lifting a finger (narrow seas naturally contain Russia and China).
“but you can extract what US strategy was uh an extensive military buildup with allies uh also a very broad strategic Communications campaign it wasn't just uh human rights at the end but from the very beginning it's getting accurate news to subject populations Radio free Europe Radio uh uh Voice of America Etc and then a lot of unbi Alliance building for friends and Alliance busting for enemies and what you want to do is amplify overextension of your enemy of all the stupid things they're doing in the case of the Soviet Union it was they're ere extended by it's not efficient to to occupy someone else's country and stay there forever and uh also the Russians were quite abusive and we leveraged that and of course they had a non-performing economic model and so you want to amplify those errors uh also geography without us lifting a finger naturally contains Russia and China H they're surrounded by narrow Seas”
Continental powers face multiple neighbors and cannot risk two-front wars; they must instead fight neighbors sequentially, setting them to fail, destabilizing rising neighbors, creating buffer zones, and waiting for opportune moments to absorb weakened neighbors. This is Vladimir Putin's explicit strategy, sometimes executed through sowing mutual resentments via disinformation so Russia can act as a 'jackal state' stealing kills made by others.
“rule number one neighbors are numerous so no twoof front Wars if multiple neighbors try to come get you you're in trouble secondly no great power neighbors why because today's friend can be tomorrow's fo and that will spell trouble so what do you do you take on your neighbors sequentially you set them to fail up to fail you destabilize the rising ingest the failing set up buffer zone in between and you wait the opportune moment to pounce and absorb that is Vladimir Putin's game um better yet you get the neighbors to do the work for you you seow their Mutual resentments by deluging them with fake news and anything else you can think of so that Russia can act to play the role of a jackal state to steal the Kill made by others”
The question of whether human beings require catastrophic disasters to think strategically is open. Americans rejected the Marshall Plan after WWI (demanding repayment of debts) but embraced it after WWII. This suggests that catastrophe may be necessary for strategic clarity. However, the current generation (Afghan/Iraq veterans) has 'really important lived experience about what works and what doesn't work' and should document and publish their analysis to pass lessons to the next generation.
“I have a question about human beings I don't know if human beings require a catastrophic disaster in order to get real because um you get the Marshall Plan which is big bucks there's no way you would have gotten Americans to agree to that after World War I after World War I we're all about collecting our debts give us the money back give us the money back um and then we get World War II and maybe we should have more money back and it would have been so much cheaper”
China could pressure Russia over Siberian resources using historical claims to territories the Romanov Dynasty seized from China, which exceed US territory east of the Mississippi in size. Additionally, with North China having depleted its water table, and Siberia containing massive freshwater reserves (20%+ of world's surface freshwater), China has leverage to demand water resources from Russia, giving China geopolitical tools Putin has handed it through Ukraine overextension.
“if you look at uh what the territories that the the Romanov Dynasty took from the Chinese it exceeds US territory east of the Mississippi and you think Chinese have forgotten not so much uh Putin says boundary treaties don't matter right because it's ripped up to it it's with uh Ukraine and his these historic things what matter well the Chinese can play that back at him because the key resource right now that Siberia has is water North China has blown through its water table and Bal has 20% or more than that of the world's surface freshwater and the Chinese can uh you can pipe it down if you would like to”
Americans need to stop 'f-ing with each other' and treat each other with respect, kindness, and honesty to work together effectively. If the US engages in 'scorched earth' on itself and its allies while foreign adversaries 'assist gladly,' that is a strategy of suicide. Maintaining internal political cohesion is a prerequisite for competing effectively against external continental powers.
“we're in dangerous times uh Americans need to stop f with each other and treat each other with respect and kindness and honesty and work together and if we do scorched Earth on ourselves and our allies that is a strategy of suicide and others will assist us gladly if we play that game”
Neither China nor Russia possesses the geopolitical prerequisites for successful maritime dominance that Mahan identified: both lack a moat (insulation from attack), have poor internal transportation grids, lack reliable sea access due to surrounding neighbors and narrow island-cluttered seas, and lack stable government institutions with regular transparent transfers of power.
“if you look at China and Russia Today neither one of them has a full list of six start with moat they most certainly do not have Moes either one of them in fact they each have more neighbors than any other two countries on the planet... neither one has reliable access by sea because they're all surrounded by um narrow Island cluttered uh Coastal seas... neither China nor Russia has stable government institutions and what would be the defining characteristic of that well uh regular trans parent uh transfers of executive power and dictator for life does not remotely qualify”
In the modern era of precision nuclear weapons, maritime powers cannot rely on the British strategy of elephant hunting because neither side has an invulnerable home anymore; instead, the strategy must be to maintain economic growth, use sanctions rather than blockades to reduce enemy trade, and cautiously support peripheral allies without direct military engagement.
“there's a huge difference now it's Precision Nuclear Strike none of us has an inv vulnerable home anymore and so by all means keep the economy running and probably your friend's econom is running and by all means close down enemy trade you probably don't want to do it with blockades and commerce rating much better with sanctions”
Presidents Nixon through Reagan produced cumulative presidential effects that defeated the Soviet Union by sequentially opening opportunities: Nixon played the China card, Ford continued it, Carter began the human rights campaign and military buildup, and Reagan accelerated militarization while operating from positions of military and ideological strength.
“each one oper open opportunities for successors so Nixon plays the China card which then Ford keeps using and then starts playing the human rights card Carter runs with that begins a military uh buildup that Reagan really runs with and this puts Reagan and Bush later uh operating from a position of military and ideological strength”
Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative has flawed mathematics because modern containerized shipping (with ultra-large tankers carrying 250,000 dead weight tons and container ships with 21,000 containers) is vastly more cost-effective than land-based rail (600 containers per train), and the Belt and Road's land routes would require continuous track gauge standardization and face wartime closure in narrow, island-cluttered seas surrounding China.
“in 1960 the average tanker size was 20,000 dead white tons in our own day the smallest ultra-large crew tanker is a quar of a million dead white tons... the largest container ships now... is about 21,000 containers over a billion dollars in cargo one ship whereas you're going to do a train 600 containers... also in peace time uh the things will move but in Wartime uh Xi Jinping is going to even have trouble with the maritime part of his belt Road initiative because China is surrounded by narrow uh cluttered Island cluttered Seas”
Maritime powers focus on negative objectives (preventing bad outcomes like invasion or trade destruction) rather than positive objectives (territorial conquest), making maritime success strategically invisible because 'on a good day Navy day absolutely nothing happens' while the Navy quietly prevents the destruction of the global trading system.
“in the maritime [world] particularly if you're successful it's about negative objectives you're um preventing stuff from happening... the Navy focuses mostly on negative objectives in peace time... the Navy is preventing the destruction of the global trading system... on a good day Navy day absolutely nothing happens looks like the Navy is doing nothing but it's incredibly important”
The Helsinki Accords of the 1970s included human rights clauses that Soviet leaders believed would not be enforced, but these clauses enabled human rights activists and dissidents throughout the Warsaw Pact to hold Soviet governments accountable, triggering a dissident movement that undermined communist legitimacy.
“we say we're going to have some human rights Clauses in here which we know they aren't going to respect and lo and behold this is the third basket of the human rights Clauses of the Helsinki Accords lo and behold human rights activists in the west and dissidents throughout the Warsaw Pact started trying to hold the Soviet C government accountable... this dissident movement human rights movement took on a life of its own”
The Cold War could have ended very differently: multiple explanations for its outcome (Reagan buildup, human rights pressure, China card, submarine technology, Polish solidarity, Soviet economic collapse) suggest that removing any one factor might have produced a different result, indicating Western victory required the entire 'shebang' of interconnected strategies.
“here's a pessimistic way of looking at it it's like no no no the Cold War ended very much on Western terms because it required all of these factors the whole list that I gave you today and you remove any one of them and you get a different outcome and you might uh may maybe don't even end the Cold War and it took the whole the whole shebang so the West barely won the Cold War”
If continental powers botch their strategy, their known world can vanish forever, as happened to Imperial Russia, Imperial China, and many Eurasian civilizations; the continental world operates without insurance policies—there is no institutional mechanism for reset—making overextension particularly dangerous.
“in this world if you botch strategy your Known World can just just vanish forever and this is what happened to Imperial Russia Imperial China and many of these great civil Iz ation of Eurasia... the Continental world is a world without insurance policies”
Putin misidentified Japan as his primary adversary and fought the Russo-Japanese War (1904-05) instead of investing in railways and armament production to deal with Germany, which destroyed his dynasty 10 years later; Putin is similarly misidentifying his primary adversary by fighting Ukraine when China represents a greater long-term territorial threat to Russia, exemplifying how recreational wars allow real adversaries to gain advantage.
“uh here's the the problem with misidentifying your primary adversary and fighting a recreational War where you don't need to uh Nicholas II tried this he decided that Japan was his primary enemy and off he goes to the Russo Japanese war great buddy uh so instead of investing in Railways and Armament production to deal with Germany which comes and destroys his dynasty 10 years later he's fighting Japanese well Putin is doing his emptied out his Cold War arsenals uh on Ukraine and the ukrainians never were after Russian territory the Chinese might well be so if we play our cards right the Russians and the Chinese will take care of each other”
The question of when the Sino-Russian relationship breaks up is not 'if' but 'when,' and if maritime powers play their cards right, Russia and China will 'take care of each other.' The correct maritime strategy is therefore to maintain more friends rather than fewer, work through international institutions, and allow continental powers to exhaust each other through their structural contradictions and overextension.
“the question isn't when the Sino Russian relationship's going to break up but when and here's the the problem with misidentifying your primary adversary and fighting a recreational War where you don't need to... Putin is doing his emptied out his Cold War arsenals uh on Ukraine and the ukrainians never were after Russian territory the Chinese might well be so if we play our cards right the Russians and the Chinese will take care of each other but we're going to be on a long wait while this occurs and uh it is better off to have more friends rather than fewer friends in this kind of world and the maritime order as uh flawed as it is uh is your best bet to work with uh allies and Friends through International institutions to coordinate against these crazy people”
Maritime powers hold alliance systems together using diplomacy, sanctions, embargoes, containment, blockades, and commerce raiding; sanctions work by shaving 1-2% off enemy growth; waiting a few generations creates the difference between North and South Korea—the maritime power maximizes its own and allies' wealth while the continental power's piggy bank shrinks.
“Maritime Powers uh the way they hold it together with alliances diplomacy sanctions embargos Containment all kinds of uh things going on the Navy's deterrence blockades Commerce rating and you can look at um the sanctions and things and go well the rogue's still there true um but if you shave one or two% of growth off your Rogue uh wait a few generations and it's the difference between North and South Korea so you're make you're shrinking the the opposing piggy bank”
In continental power logic, the Army's primary mission is not expeditionary warfare but (1) keeping the ruling regime in power, (2) preventing defections from the empire, and only thirdly (3) border defense; away games are rare and most fighting happens on home territory where winter becomes a strategic asset.
“the purpose for an Army in this world is not the maritime power army which is expeditionary Warfare the expedition mean you cross the ocean to go somewhere else uh-uh in this world the Army's number one mission is to keep the ruling regime in power so if you think people's Liberation Army you think it's it's the petorian guard of the Chinese Communist Party the second most important thing for your army is to prevent any uh defections from the Empire and then only third is at border defense so in this world away games are rare most of the fighting is on home territory and the winter takes and keeps the field”
US intervention in civil wars yields different outcomes than Soviet occupation: the US delivers economic aid and leaves; Eastern European countries still don't like the US, yet Payne asks 'I don't know why the Russians think they're so special'—implying that Russian occupation alienates neighbors permanently, while US intervention is less resented because aid is delivered without permanent occupation.
“the United States intervenes in Civil Wars all over the world but we we Deluge them with economic aid and we even leave people don't like us I don't know why the Russians think they're so special all right you invade the neighbors you kill their leaders you siphon off their wealth you impose a non-performing economic model on them and then you never leave and you wonder why these people don't like you”
Nicholas II mistakenly identified Japan as his primary enemy and fought the Russo-Japanese War, diverting resources from railway and armament production; his failure to prepare for Germany (his actual primary enemy) led to his dynasty's destruction 10 years later; Putin is repeating this error by fighting Ukraine (not his primary enemy per Payne's analysis) while leaving Siberia exposed to China.
“Nicholas II tried this he decided that Japan was his primary enemy and off he goes to the Russo Japanese war great buddy uh so instead of investing in Railways and Armament production to deal with Germany which comes and destroys his dynasty 10 years later...Putin is doing his emptied out his Cold War arsenals uh on Ukraine and the ukrainians never were after Russian territory the Chinese might well be”
If the West engages in 'scorched Earth' on itself and its allies through internal division, this constitutes a strategy of suicide, and other authoritarian powers will gladly assist in the West's self-destruction.
“if we play that game thank you very much... if we do scorched Earth on ourselves and our allies that is a strategy of suicide and others will assist us gladly if we play that game”
American security depends on the maritime rules-based order, which allows plastic credit cards to function as global currency and contracts to be honored without military enforcement; Americans take this for granted but do not understand that this trading system requires sustained institutional maintenance and naval force.
“your security is dependent on this Maritime order I don't think Americans today have a BW about it... you take your little piece of plastic you go wherever it is in the world and then you take that little plastic and you go I want to buy this thing or whatever and they give it to you right and so you've traded plastic which is nothing... well that only works in a rules-based order right”
Geography 'naturally contains Russia and China' without US effort—they're surrounded by narrow seas; peaceful trade doesn't matter in these seas, but wartime closure paralyzes them because merchant traffic stops and navies can't navigate narrow channels; the geographic containment is a passive strategic advantage for the West.
“also geography without us lifting a finger naturally contains Russia and China H they're surrounded by narrow Seas it's just facts and the one up north there's not much going on up there it those narrow seas in peace time it's great doesn't matter the traffic goes but if you're going to do a hot War the merchant traffic doesn't go and your Navy won't go if you're located uh on a really narrow sea”
Americans fundamentally misunderstand their own security dependence on the maritime rules-based order. Security depends on this order working—when you use a credit card anywhere in the world, merchants accept it and honor contracts because of the rules-based order enforced by maritime alliances. Without international institutions and contracts, you would have to 'send armies and do gumbo diplomacy,' making everything exponentially more expensive. Most Americans take this for granted without understanding it.
“your security is dependent on this Maritime order I don't think Americans today have a BW about it... think about it you take your little piece of plastic you go wherever it is in the world and then you take that little plastic and you go I want to buy this thing or whatever and they give it to you right and so you've traded plastic which is nothing and oh they even give you the plastic back a little piece piece of paper you get and then you take the good with you well that only works in a rules-based order right we take it for granted you take it for granted in a business when you sign a contract with I don't know where it is that they honor it if they don't you're going to have to send armies and things and do gumbo diplomacy uh how expensive”
In continental empires, there are no enduring alliances because subject states eventually realize the hegemonic power brings only trouble in the long run; additionally, there is a tendency toward overextension with no clear limit on territorial conquest before the empire chokes on its own expansion.
“there are no enduring alliances because people figure it out eventually the hegemonic power only offers trouble in the long run uh and there's also a tendency for overextension like there's no counsel how much is enough uh territories enough before you choke on it”
Jimmy Carter's emphasis on human rights as fundamental to American foreign policy in his Notre Dame commencement address, emphasizing political freedoms denied throughout Eastern Europe, destroyed communist belief in communism itself according to longtime Soviet diplomat Anatoly Gromyko.
“here is Jimmy Carter... he said look we have Refirm reaffirmed America's commitment to human rights as a fundamental tenant of our foreign policy... Carter was emphasizing precisely the political freedoms that were being denied throughout the Easter e block and here is Alle G gki... saying look the Communist ideology is associated above all with the Soviet Union and when you reject it a vacuum a real problem”
The nuclear-powered submarine with advanced targeting capabilities determined the Cold War outcome because Carter and Reagan pursued aggressive strategies to target Soviet nuclear subs in their home bastions, and the Soviets were terrified they lacked reliable second-strike capability.
“it's this platform the nuclear powered nuclear arms submarine that determined the outcome of the of the Cold War because under Carter and then certainly under Reagan there was a much more aggressive strategy of targeting uh Soviet nuclear subs in their homeat bastions and the Soviets were scared to death that they didn't have a reliable second strike capability”
Putin, Xi Jinping, and their allies do not constitute a coherent alliance system like WWII Axis powers; they share the US as a secondary enemy but their primary enemies are different (Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan/India, Iran-Israel, Pakistan-India, North Korea-South Korea), meaning they will not make meaningful sacrifices for each other.
“it isn't a coherent Alliance System you've got basically a bunch of Eur Asian dictators sure they share the United States as a shared secondary enemy but think who the primary enemies are Russia's primary enemy right now is Ukraine China's primary enemy I don't know is it Taiwan is in India... Iran's primary enemy is Israel Pakistan's is India North Korea South Korea none of this aligns for anyone to make meaningful sacrifices for the others”
The current second Cold War will last for generations because changing how other people think requires generational timescales; Gorbachev and his generation changed their minds about what they wanted, Deng Xiaoping and his generation changed their minds about China's direction, and it will probably take Russians and Chinese a long time to change their current trajectory.
“the current cold war is going to be going on for Generations because uh you don't change how other people think they decide uh changing what they thought gorbachov and his Generations changed their minds of what they wanted to do dung sha ping and his generation changed their minds of what they wanted to do and it'll probably take the Russians and Chinese a long time to change”
The current generation of military officers (veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq) possess important lived experience about what works and what doesn't work in warfare; they are potentially formative for a 'greatest generation of the next one in the making' if they make wise decisions and document their experience.
“your generation is tremendously important for those of you who are veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq because you have really important lived experience about what works and what doesn't work and uh I don't know whether you're the greatest generation of the next one in the making if you can make uh wise decisions and learn from your experience”
Americans must stop fighting each other and treat each other with respect, kindness, and honesty, and work together strategically; this is not merely a moral imperative but a strategic necessity because divided democracies cannot compete against unified authoritarian powers.
“Americans need to stop f with each other and treat each other with respect and kindness and honesty and work together”
Putin is attempting to reconstitute a continental empire in an age of nationalism when dominated peoples no longer accept subjugation; this leaves him unable to consolidate conquered territory while facing Chinese threats to Siberia—a region with natural resources and water reserves that China desperately needs as North China's water table is depleted.
“Vladimir Putin who's trying to reconstitute an empire in the age of nationalism uh good luck with that one it that uh dominated peoples no longer sit Supine and uh take it they resist... Putin is doing uh the fighting himself... if you look at uh what the territories that the the Romanov Dynasty took from the Chinese it exceeds US territory east of the Mississippi... the key resource right now that Siberia has is water North China has blown through its water table”
The United States interventions in civil wars globally are followed by economic aid and often troop withdrawals, yet recipient populations still dislike the US, whereas Russia invades neighbors, kills their leaders, siphons wealth, imposes non-performing economic models, never leaves, and then wonders why people don't like them—a stark contrast in imperial logic suggesting Russian leaders fundamentally misunderstand why empires fail in the modern era.
“the United States intervenes in Civil Wars all over the world but we we Deluge them with economic aid and we even leave people don't like us I don't know why the Russians think they're so special all right... you invade the neighbors you kill their leaders you siphon off their wealth you impose a non-performing economic model on them and then you never leave and you wonder why these people don't like you”
The cumulative view is that Western Cold War victory required ALL of the following: Reagan's military buildup AND Carter's human rights campaign AND Nixon's China card AND submarine technological superiority AND Gorbachev's non-violent approach AND internal Soviet collapse AND Eastern European democratic contagion. Remove any single factor and the Cold War might not have ended the same way. This was narrow victory, not inevitable outcome.
“I can now end on give you a couple of umbrella explanations one of them is any of any of the above reasons I've just given you it's inevitable or all of the above it barely one here's how that goes let's start with uh any of the above uh there were so many problems with the Soviet Union that you could argue that its demise was inevitable... here's a pessimistic way of looking at it it's like no no no the Cold War ended very much on Western terms because it required all of these factors the whole list that I gave you today and you remove any one of them and you get a different outcome”
The invasion of Iraq by Saddam Hussein one month before the reunification treaty was signed complicated negotiations because Iraq was a major Soviet client state that owed the Soviets 10-13 billion dollars; Bush finessed the problem by limiting US penetration into Iraq to avoid upsetting the economically desperate Soviets.
“a month and a half before the reunification treaty was signed you get sodam uh Hussein invading Iraq and Iraq was a major Soviet client State uh owed the Soviets between 10 and 13 billion do that's a lot of money for a broke creditor and but Bush finesses this problem he doesn't go too far into Iraq to upset the Soviets”