Trump Wins — ft. Anthony Scaramucci | Prof G Markets

Strong-man and autocratic leadership concentrates wealth at the top while devastating the broader population through cronyism and quid pro quo exchanges.

“when you move towards strongman leadership and you move towards autocratic thinking a lot of people at the top get very very rich but the rest of the people get devastated because cronyism uh and and the ideas of quidd proquo exchanges come into play”

Oil and gas industry will be a big winner under Trump presidency due to deregulation

“the oil and gas industry is a big winner I believe obviously Bitcoin is a big winner”

Prediction markets should remain legal but require more regulation to prevent thin trading and undue manipulation while maintaining open access for broader participation

“I think they should remain legal I think there is a free market I think ultimately those prediction markets were correct...I would just like them more regulated uh I would like people uh to basically be able to bet in those Market”

Trump administration launching Meme coins weeks before election was a ridiculous Ponzi scheme and norm-busting, yet he's the sitting president while trying to enrich himself in this way

“so you want talk about Norm busting or rule breaking these guys are launching meme coins two or 3 weeks before the election you know and now that Meme coin did fizzle they didn't get a lot of demand for that mean boom because it was Prim of fascia what it was was just a ridiculous Ponzi scheme but he's the sitting president he's one of the most powerful people in the world”

Voters who support Trump made a calculated trade-off: they voted for him despite (not because of ignoring) his racism and misogyny, accepting those characteristics as the cost of his economic or policy agenda.

“I'm not saying the people that voted for Donald Trump or misogynist or racist but they did accept his racism and they did accept his misogyny okay and so you have to look at that now you have to look at that in the mirror and say has America really changed”

Adversaries (Russia, China) are deliberately using social media fragmentation to 'rile us up' and create tribalism in America, and Trump is 'the perfect medium' for this to occur.

“because of the fragmentation in social media our adversaries are in the process with us now and they're trying to rile us up they're trying to create lots of tribalism uh and Donald Trump was the perfect medium for that”

You cannot cut $2 trillion from the federal government without massive austerity that would throw people out of work and create 'rebellious dissension'—austerity doesn't work, as demonstrated by 14 years of British austerity.

“you cannot cut $2 trillion from the federal government I'm sure there's overspending I'm sure there's excess in the government but you can't go into a massive austerity program to that magnitude unless you want to get rid of the military yeah you can't take six to eight% of the GDP right okay and not put it to work you'll crush the economy and when you crush the economy you're going to throw people out of work and you're going to create rebellious dissension in the society Trump is not a stupid person he's not going to do that okay moreover you don't want him to do that you know the the Brits would tell you they've had 14 years of austerity it doesn't work”

Rich, smart people (e.g., Bill Ackman, Elon Musk) may think they are smarter than everyone else, but they are not; wisdom requires diverse perspectives ('wisdom in crowds'), which is why decentralized government works better than autocratic concentration.

“Rich smart people don't get it right on everything I don't want Bill Amman operating on my brain I know he's worth more money than me and I know as a result of that he may think he's smarter than me and he may think he's smarter than everybody on planet Earth but he also may not be okay Scott Galloway may be smarter than him in so many different ways and you too Ed and so my point is we got to take a step back and recognize that the system that we put in place there is wisdom in crowds”

Previous presidents (Carter, GHWB, Clinton, Reagan, GWB, Lincoln) looked at the country and said 'I'm here to serve' and worked within the norms of the constitutional system, which has been 'grounded with experimentation over hundreds of years' and is therefore wisdom-laden even if imperfect.

“imagine a Jimmy Carter set up that way or a George Herbert Walker Bush or a Bill Clinton okay like or dislike any of the politicians I just mentioned Ronald Reagan George W bush they all looked at the country and said okay I'm here to serve the country and I'm I'm here to work inside the nor forms of the system because this system has been grounded with experimentation over hundred year of hundreds of years it may not be perfect it may not work perfectly but it works for the most amount of people”

At the end of WWII, the U.S. was at 125% debt-to-GDP but didn't 'pay it back'—instead, it grew the economy exponentially so that the debt became manageable, and this is the model to follow now, not austerity.

“what works is you're at the end of World War II you're 125% debt to GDP and uh you're not paying it back but you're growing the GDP so exponentially that the debt is actually manageable by your taxpayers and manageable by by the system that you set up”

Moldova election showed that a pro-democracy woman won against a Putin puppet despite Putin's social media machinery, signaling that small country democratic resistance is possible but fragile

“the mdova election the other night that woman won that election she's a pro-democracy person she was up against a Putin puppet and she was up against all the social media Machinery that was engendered by by Putin uh if mdova is a small country but if it falls it falls right you know and all of a sudden The Dominoes start falling”

Finland and Sweden, despite 74 years of NATO independence, chose to join NATO in its 75th year specifically because Vladimir Putin's nationalism and military expansion required the security alliance

“there is a reason uh podcast listeners pay attention there's a reason why Finland and Sweden 74 years of NATO they don't want to be part of NATO in its 75th year they're like hey guys we need to be part of NATO okay”

45 of the people who worked for Trump in his administration were trying to warn people about his capabilities and character

“there is a reason why 45 of us who work for him were trying to warn people of what is his capabilities are”

The original SEC was designed to make capital markets safer through apolitical, rigorous policy rather than being weaponized as an instrument of political power, as happened under Gensler and Elizabeth Warren's tenure

“the original standing of the SEC it wasn't a political instrument of power for a party or a politician what Roosevelt wanted and there's a great book on this uh Susanna henriquez wrote a book called taming the street and it's a it's a history of the early part of the SEC what we were trying to do is just make the Capital Market safer in the country it was very apolitical”

After the January 7, 2021 insurrection, many people denounced Trump; now those same people are on stage with him after his 2024 victory, demonstrating the 'way people will pette for Donald Trump.'

“after uh the Insurrection on the 7th many people denounced Donald Trump 7th of January 20 2021 those very people are on stage with him last night remember JD Vance called him the American Hitler and he's his vice president so so you'll you'll be impressed with the way people will pette for Donald Trump”

Trump won't be able to find anything to cut from the federal government to offset tax cut revenue losses, and will cause a 'sugar high' for the economy followed by a reckoning when other countries stop denominating things in dollars and start using hard assets and gold.

“he'll try to push through that tax cut uh the CBO will tell him that this will create massive massive deficit spending uh he won't be able to find anything that he's going to cut in the government to offset the tax cut the reduction in revenues uh and that'll cause a you know look it'll cause a sugar high for people uh you know we're very powerful country we're a dollar dominated world and so we can extend our debt longer because we're paying it back at our own currency which we in fact can create uh we'll extend our debt longer but if the brick countries other countries start denominating things and hard assets and gold and things like that you know then then I think we're going to at some point we're going to have a reckoning”

Gary Gensler was the worst SEC chairman in the 90-year history of the SEC, weaponizing the agency alongside Elizabeth Warren for political purposes

“Gary Gensler the worst SEC chairman in the history the 90-year history of the SEC him and Elizabeth Warren came in there and weaponized the SEC okay”

Trump was able to convince JD Vance, who previously called him 'the American Hitler,' to become his vice president, demonstrating his capacity to flip rivals

“after uh the Insurrection on the 7th many people denounced Donald Trump 7th of January 20 2021 those very people are on stage with him last night remember JD Vance called him the American Hitler and he's his vice president”

Trump won election despite people saying he couldn't, including Anthony himself; sportsmanship requires accepting defeat and congratulating the winner

“he did something that they said he couldn't do and frankly I said he couldn't do and so just like in sports when things are not going your way and you get trounced you have to own it and you have to wish the other side well he is the American president now uh or the president-elect I should say and so I congratulated him last night”

Naturalized immigrants are not monolithically Democratic voters; many are traditional families and Roman Catholics with conservative values who would split their votes between parties

“do you know if you naturalize those people they're not all voting blue like Elon Musk says many these people are traditional families and Roman Catholics that have elements of conservatism in their personalities guess what happens to these people guys they vote like every other American some of them are going to vote red some of them are going to vote blue”

Lend-Lease program provided material support to Soviet Union and Britain during WWII; Trump administration would not have done this, and current Ukraine support is the same type of commitment

“Len lease is sort of the same thing that we're doing for the ukrainians right now through the Biden Administration imagine Donald Trump in the second world war would he be practicing Len lease with Joe Stalin and Winston Churchill I mean I think we know the answer to that it's self-evident”

There are 104 million eligible voters who did not vote in 2024 election; political entrepreneurs should focus on understanding and mobilizing this group with effective messaging rather than chasing existing voters

“if you're an entrepreneur listening to this if you're a political entrepreneur listening to this you don't like the direction that this is going in Think Like an entrepreneur how do you get the 104 million people that didn't vote last night or didn't vote in this process that are eligible to vote how do you get them involved how do you go from zero to one with them in terms of messaging narration uh explanation of History”

Living in America for 25 years while Trump is politically dominant (from age 16 to 29 by 2028) consumes mental bandwidth and life energy; focusing on personal development, career, and meaningful activities rather than Trump obsession is the healthier approach

“I'm 25 years old I was 16 years old when Trump first announced his candidacy by the time his term is up I will be 29 years old which means that by 2028 I will have spent more than half of my life thinking about this person every single day and the reality is I just don't want to think about this guy anymore I'm just tired of thinking about it”

Trump is a 'human Kaleidoscope' where supporters and opponents each see what they want in his contradictory statements, allowing him to claim credit for anything and escape accountability

“he's a human Kaleidoscope you look through the lens you see what you want to see if you don't like what you see you turn the aperture slightly in a new pattern forms he say okay I like that better so Trump says so many different things if you're supporting him you pick the things that he says that you like”

If Trump executes even 15% of his stated policy agenda, he will damage the prosperous system that benefited millions of people; markets are not believing he will follow through, but he has indicated he will

“if he does 15% of what he says he's going to damage this system that has made so many people prosperous are we need in need of tweaking the system we certainly are are we a need in making the system better no question but to bring down the system and to change the world order okay”

Trump's supporters are actually social conservatives who want government intervention in culture (abortion, gender, sexuality) but are fiscally liberal and want government services and transfer payments, creating a political coalition based on contradiction

“Trump understands something about his supporters that everyone needs to understand they are social conservatives they want a job in your bedroom they want to oversee what you're doing in your bedroom and if you're a woman they certainly want to have some control over your uterus okay but they are fiscally liberal they want the government services they want the uh the the transfer payments from the government”

Trump's media stock (DJT) could collapse post-election now that it no longer functions as a prediction machine; it could only remain elevated if billionaires artificially prop it up to help Trump sell shares or if government contracts are funneled to a social media platform

“I've been thinking about Donald Trump's stock a lot because I wonder if I mean basically it became a vessel a predictions machine now that he's won it's no longer a predictions machine but I wonder if if the stock ends up going and this is confirmation bias because I shorted it but I wonder if it ends up going way down because now it's like it's no longer a prediction machine what is it and unless he can figure out a way to convince his buddies to go in and prop it up so he can sell or he can figure out a way to get funnel government contracts to a social media platform which I think would be Real Gymnastics”

Post-WWII international order (represented by figures like David Sarnoff, Bill Paley, and the military-media coordination) maintained rectitude and process, but Vietnam has broken that culture and Trump has brought rule-breaking and form-breaking to governance.

“the US benefited from millions and millions of men and women being in the American Military taking oaths of the Constitution working together from different parts of the country and then after the war there was a sort of rectitude and a process that was followed that part of America is now completely over the Vietnam bone SP spur def ferment is the is the process now and he's brought that culture with him so it's a rules breaking it's a form breaking”

Markets believe Trump will either not follow through on his campaign promises or that a split government will limit his ability to execute them, explaining why markets rallied despite his rhetoric

“I believe the market what the market is sort of saying is that we'll see some inflation in the short run or fears of inflation we'll see some stimulus in terms of tax cuts um and we'll see obviously this will favor favor crypto um but also what I think the market is saying is that it'll be a split government”

Good long-term leadership is the ability to do hard things in the face of adversity to pay off long-term or prevent tragedy; Trump's approach is to be loved and use unlimited credit to provide short-term stimulus

“my sense of good long-term leadership is doing hard things in the face of adversity to pay off long-term or prevent a tragedy...my sense is that's not Trump that he wants to be loved and he has the biggest credit card in the world in the form of our printing press”

The Democratic Party must undergo fundamental reform to compete in future elections, because their current messaging and approach has failed with working-class voters, women, and immigrant communities

“the Democrats will have to reform themselves and present something very different to the American people uh than what they've been doing recently”

Trump's transactional, capricious nature means relationships with him—including with his VP JD Vance, Elon Musk, and other associates—will inevitably end in conflict because anyone receiving attention becomes a threat to Trump's centrality and will be discarded

“Trump is very good at what I call the Donald Trump Carousel you come in you're waving to the crowd you're with Trump he hands you the Maga hat you're smiling and as you go by him he plunges the knife in your back uh and then the next guy shows up and he does the same thing to that guy and then the next guy shows up he has been masterful at always finding opportunistically people that are willing to help him”

This election represented the first 'podcast campaign' rather than previous Twitter/Facebook campaigns, with old media no longer trusted and centralized authority figures no longer credible

“this was the the podcast campaign the old media is no longer trusted by this country the suits are no longer trusted”

Exit polling of thousands of people showed universally 80/20 that Trump supporters do not believe Trump will follow through on his promises despite voting for him

“I asked the following questions thousands of people does Trump mean what he says is he going to do what he says or is Trump just saying that the bellicosity versus rhetoric is nonsense he's not going to follow through on it it's 8020 universally 8020 that he does not mean what he says okay”

The country is not ready for a female president, as evidenced by Harris's defeat despite her qualification, which represents a setback for gender equity and an indication that misogyny remains a powerful force in American politics

“what I'm feeling right now is basically just a mixture of sadness and depression um two main reasons one is and this is more the the depression I was I was just decided to have a woman president I just think it's time I find it very strange that we've never had one um I'm a little bit tired of the fact that we've never had one and what's clear to me this morning is that this country still isn't ready for that we still think that a woman couldn't handle the job”

America needs population influx and more workers, not depopulation, and the irony is that if illegal immigrants were naturalized, many would vote Republican (traditional families, Roman Catholics with conservative values)—Trump's deportation agenda is therefore economically and politically self-defeating.

“we need population influx you don't need pop you don't need depopulation in this country we need more workers we need more people in the country the great irony of what Donald Trump is suggesting I'm going to deport 10 million people oh by the way do you know if you naturalize those people they're not all voting blue like Elon Musk says many these people are traditional families and Roman Catholics that have elements of conservatism in their personalities guess what happens to these people guys they vote like every other American some of them are going to vote red some of them are going to vote blue”

Hard-right ideologues have 'velcroed themselves' to Trump in the last two years and want to 'systematically change things' about American culture (women's reproductive rights) and government processes; these people are dangerous and Scaramucci will continue to speak against them.

“but up against that thought he's got a lot of hard right people that have velcroed themselves to him him in the last two years and they want to systematically change things about our culture uh women's Reproductive Rights Etc and systematically change things about the way we process our government and so I think those people are dangerous I've spoken out against those people and uh frankly I will continue to try to do that”

Elon Musk will not actually serve in government because he has too many conflicts of interest (Tesla, SpaceX) and allowing him to would create an oligarchic path with cronyism and quid pro quo exchanges

“well he's got too many he he's got too many conflicts of interests I mean I mean listen if we're going to break every norm and break every Rule and we're going to let Elon Musk be a government official and run uh multiple billion dollar trillion is dollar companies okay then you know that's that's going to be in its own way a path towards a very weird oligarchy in this country”

Jay Clayton is a non-political policy expert who would restore apolitical standards to the SEC and should be reappointed, allowing prediction markets and crypto regulation to be based on safety and transparency rather than politics

“somebody like uh Jay Clayton I don't know if you guys recognize that name he was Trump's SEC uh chairman I helped him get that job when I was on the transition committee he's a former uh Sullivan and Cromwell partner uh he's raised his hand he's willing to go back to work for Donald Trump he's not a political person he's more of a policy uh and I I would like to have more people like that”