Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Is Now Raging...And It's Gone Global
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History tells us that civilizations and societies boom, bust and rise anew to repeat the pattern -- a pattern that demographer Neil Howe says is surprisingly predictable in both its timing and trajectory.
Howe refers to these "seasons" of societal change as "turnings", and has famously has declared America is now well into a Fourth Turning, the "bust" part of its cycle -- where the status quo falls apart -- often chaotically -- and is replaced by a brand new order.
Well, in its first 100 days, the Trump administration has certainly made big -- and some would day disruptive or even chaotic -- strides in its attempt to replace the previous status quo with a new playbook, both domestically and internationally.
Is this the kind of textbook Fourth Turning upheaval that Howe expected?
To find out, as well as what further transformation he expects ahead, we'll ask the man himself.
#fourthturning #trumpeconomy #nationalism
0:00 - Rise of nationalism over globalization 7:01 - Trump as chaos agent in Fourth Turning 15:46 - Fourth Turning as a global phenomenon 19:16 - Collectivism vs. individualism 25:48 - Trump’s "Golden Age" as a First Turning contender 32:43 - Need for conflict to reshape institutions 34:00 - Potential catalysts 40:17 - Skepticism on Trump’s policy coherence 45:05 - The forces of history make the leaders, not the other way around 52:25 - Economic trends & resilience strategies 59:07 - Long-term investment outlook 1:07:10 - Resources to follow Howe’s work
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We are in a fourth turning—a crisis period of societal upheaval where the old order is breaking down and institutions are being reshaped. Trump is a catalyst unleashing these forces, but the specific direction and outcome remain unknowable; what is certain is that America will emerge as a more protected, less globalized economy with tighter top-down control and greater civic institution-building.
- Fourth turnings follow a predictable generational pattern and are now globally synchronized, not just American
- Trump's chaotic executive approach via tariffs, regulatory rollback, and court confrontation reflects necessary institutional destruction before reconstruction
- Contradictions in Trump's policy bundle (trade barriers + deficit spending + capital inflows) will force reckoning with national savings, federal deficit, and likely recession
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During the Great Depression, Americans were deeply polarized with half thinking fascism was coming and half thinking communism was coming; violent labor strikes occurred in 1936-37; many people thought FDR was playing dictator; but in 1938-39 if you asked most Americans what the next crisis would be, they would have predicted internal left vs. right conflict, not the rise of fascism abroad or World War II.
“Great Depression as you may know was a period of enormous uh internal polarization uh in the United States. I mean half of America thought that we living in the fascist decade. The other half thought we were living in the the the communist decade. No one believed there was any future for sort of liberal capitalism. We had uh violent labor strikes in in in 1936 37...if you would ask most Americans on the street in 1938, as as late as 1938 or 1939, uh, if there's a big crisis in the future, what would it be? They probably would have said, well, if there's a big crisis, probably going to be, you know, right versus left in America.”
A tariff regime is implicitly an industrial policy—a centralized approach where a leader with real power protects and shelters blue-collar America and ensures jobs, rather than leaving it to the free market as Adam Smith advocated, making this a much more centralized administration.
“I mean, the old idea was what was Adam Smith all about, right? Free trade. Just let people do what they want to do, right? Well, now you're going to have an industrial policy. Within the whole idea of a tariff regime is the whole idea implicitly of an industrial policy. You want a leader, a cappo with real power who's going to look after bluecollar America, make sure they all have jobs, not going to leave it to the marketplace, right?”
Leaders typically come to office less impressive than observers expect and grow into their role under pressure—FDR was considered a second-rate intellect (unlike Herbert Hoover, who was impressive) and Lincoln's entire executive experience was running a two-man law office, yet both grew to meet generational crises.
“other leaders are are very unprepossessing when they come in. I mean, FDR uh everyone considered him to be kind of a second rate, you know, second rate intellect. He certainly wasn't an econ he didn't understand anything about the economy unlike Herbert Hoover was a was a virtual you know I mean Herbert Hoover was a very impressive guy um uh FDR's uh you know second cousin Teddy Roosevelt everyone knew he was a dynamo he was he wrote books he he I mean he was larger than life right no one really had much of an impression many of the impressions were pretty were were were were not very good of of of FDR and his capacities, but he but he grew in response to the crisis that he faced”
Fourth Turnings historically have both internal and external conflict dimensions—the American Revolution had external conflict against Parliament and King George but also significant internal violence with American patriots killing American Tories, especially in the South.
“We've had four turnings that were some combination of internal and external at the same time. You know, you think about it. The American Revolution, was that an external conflict of the American colonies against Parliament and and King George or was it internal? Actually, most of the killings in the American colonies were American patriots killing American Tories. You know what I mean? That's right. There was a huge amount of internal violence, particularly in the South, which was mostly Americans killing Americans”
Trump cannot achieve his stated policy goals of eliminating trade deficits while simultaneously attracting massive foreign capital inflows, because trade flows and capital flows are two sides of the same coin—if you restrict trade imports, you necessarily restrict capital inflows, which directly contradicts his goal of attracting foreign investment.
“he wants there to be no trade deficit, but he wants everyone to invest in America. How's that gonna work? How are you going to get capital inflows with us having a net exports over import? I mean, you know what I mean? It doesn't work. That's not how flows work.”
The Trump administration faces a fundamental unresolved contradiction: it wants to eliminate trade deficits while simultaneously attracting massive foreign capital inflows and running larger federal deficits, but trade flows and capital flows are two sides of the same coin—restricting trade necessarily restricts capital inflows, which means the deficit expansion will lead to crowding out and real interest rate increases that will starve domestic capital investment.
“I mean, for example, he wants there to be no trade deficit, but he wants everyone to invest in America. How's that gonna work? Yeah. How are you going to get capital inflows with us having a net exports over import?”
The May jobs report showed the first decrease in foreign-born employment and increase in domestic-born employment in many years, demonstrating that Trump's border restriction policies have already begun affecting labor market composition.
“the May jobs number was the first jobs report in I don't know how many years where we actually saw um a decrease in jobs by foreignb born workers and an increase in domestic born work. It was like the first time we've seen an increase in jobs of domestic born workers in a long time. So you know clearly shutting the the border was the catalyst for that.”
There is no moderate middle left in American politics; the country is now purely binary (one side or the other), meaning consensus governance is structurally impossible and Trump's executives action is a symptom of this polarization, not its cause.
“We now have a country in which there are no moderates, right? You are either on one side or the other.”
Much of Trump's agenda transcends the rule of law and will confront federal courts at every level, from tariff authority to immigration enforcement to regulatory circumvention via the Administrative Procedures Act and impoundment of funds, forcing a confrontation with even a conservative-majority Supreme Court over the constitutional 'major questions doctrine' requiring Congressional action.
“there's a there's a popularity to a lot of what he's doing. Uh there's also what you might consider a more uh conventional conservative side to this, cutting the size of government, cutting the size of government programs. Um and then there's some aspects of it really not sure what box to put them in. We don't know what they are. We don't know what he wants to do with defense. I mean, presumably like uh like like many good Republicans, certainly the heads of the armed services committees in both the House and the Senate, he wants to expand defense. Uh how much, we don't know. Uh but there are a lot of contradictions. Uh and there's a lot of chaos surrounding it. Uh one of the chaos uh cha more chaotic elements is of course Adam that uh is a lot of this stuff uh uh uh transcends the rule of law right practically every element of it is going to confront the the federal courts right so it's either in a district court or appeals court or it's going to the supreme court right now and you can go down the whole string of things the law by which he's actually putting these tariffs into place the law by which he's uh you know rounding up ICE is rounding up and and and you know getting rid of these immigrants who are in the United States, how he's uh kind of shortcircuiting the administrative procedures act when it comes to you know regulations and so forth. The u the empoundment of funds uh he thinks he can he has the power to just simply stop funding for a program or just scrap an entire program altogether.”
The Charles Lindbergh-led America First Committee of the 1930s-40s was one of the most popular Republican movements of that era and supported American isolationism; the Trump administration's reconciliation bill is named the 'American First Budget Resolution,' directly echoing this historical precedent and showing how history literally repeats.
“by the way I bring that up it seems newly relevant because one of the most popular uh Republicans at that time was was Charles Lindberg who was head of the one of the heads of the America first committee which the budget the budget resolution that now sitting there the reconciliation resolution is called the American first budget resolution. So this is how history literally comes back. You see what I mean?”
Fixed income securities (bonds) are a bad investment bet over the next 10 years because in a fourth turning crisis, inflation is a solution and mechanism for sharing burdens; creditors holding nominal bonds will lose as inflation erodes their real returns.
“I certainly believe as a long-term trend over the next 10 years inflation is to worry about right inflation in a crisis is not a problem it's a solution uh it is a it's a way of sharing burdens and it's very important to understand that if we ever have to mobilize if we have have to start consuming less and investing more either paying back our debts or paying for defense or doing all the other things net exports or whatever we have to do. Inflation is a way of equalizing burdens. What do you do? You take away from creditors. Anyone who's purchased a nominal bond. So I would say this this tells you to the kinds of assets to stay away from those that are you know fixed income securities.”
The awakening and second turning of the 1960s-70s was not uniquely American but was a global phenomenon: youth rebellion in Paris, Prague, Berlin, European terrorism, student massacres in Mexico City and Santiago, and disappearances of young revolutionaries throughout South America demonstrate that it was an enormous global awakening against post-WWII orders.
“we think of the 60s as an American thing, but it Americans do at least, but it was it was not. I mean, there was the um there was the there was the youth rebellion in Paris, in Prague, in Berlin. There was the Euroterrorism in Europe. There was it was actually a lot worse in Europe than it was here. You had young people who were, you know, blowing up bombs and stuff. You had the massacre of of of students in Mexico City in Santiago, the disappearances of of young revolutionaries throughout South America.”
Shutting down immigration (legal and illegal) will significantly impact US employment and labor markets because foreign-born workers were responsible for more than half of all US employment growth in the past 2-3 years; stopping this inflow will force a major adjustment in the labor market.
“I'm suddenly stopping all the inflow of foreign labor, right? So I think the impact on on employment is going to be huge because we now know over the past two years the biggest contribution to employment growth was foreignb born.”
FDR was widely considered a second-rate intellect upon taking office and had no economics background (unlike his predecessor Hoover), but he grew into his role through the crisis he faced; similarly, Abraham Lincoln had minimal executive experience (one failed House term, running a small law office), yet became a transformational leader through crisis—demonstrating that leaders are made by historical circumstances, not born.
“FDR uh everyone considered him to be kind of a second rate, you know, second rate intellect. He certainly wasn't an econ he didn't understand anything about the economy unlike Herbert Hoover was a was a virtual you know I mean Herbert Hoover was a very impressive guy um uh FDR's uh you know second cousin Teddy Roosevelt everyone knew he was a dynamo he was he wrote books he he I mean he was larger than life right no one really had much of an impression many of the impressions were pretty were were were were not very good of of of FDR and his capacities, but he but he grew in response to the crisis that he faced”
If Trump shuts down trade flows, he necessarily shuts down credit flows and capital flows, but the US currently depends on huge amounts of foreign lending to sustain its abysmally low national savings rate and its running 6% of GDP deficit at the peak of the business cycle—if we enter recession, that will go into double digits, completely unsustainable.
“if you are going to shut down trade flows that means by of necessity you're shutting down credit flows right so you're shutting down capital flows well what are the capital flows currently right there are huge amounts of foreign lending coming into the United States to sustain our completely abysmally low national savings rate and the fact that we're running a 6% of GDP deficit at the peak of the business cycle. If we go into a next recession, that's going to go up into the double digits. Completely unsustainable, Adam.”
The last global Fourth Turning (the Great Depression and World War II era, ~1930s-1945) involved simultaneous institutional crisis and total war or national revolutions across Europe, Russia, South Asia (India's independence), China, and Japan—a truly synchronized turning that reshaped the world order.
“the last fourth turning which is really uh uh the great depression and world war II which involved total war or national revolutions in so much of the world right all of Europe including Russia South Asia, I mean India obviously got its independence. I mean, China with there was an enormous crisis and a revolution and in Japan”
The late 1960s-1980s second turning (awakening) was not an American phenomenon but a global one, involving youth rebellion in Paris, Prague, Berlin, Euroterrorism, student massacres in Mexico City and Santiago, and disappearances throughout South America, making it worse in Europe than in the U.S.
“think of the 60s as an American thing, but it Americans do at least, but it was it was not. I mean, there was the um there was the there was the youth rebellion in Paris, in Prague, in Berlin. There was the Euroterrorism in Europe. There was it was actually a lot worse in Europe than it was here.”
Great Depression era America (1930s-1939) was characterized by enormous internal polarization with half the population fearing fascism and the other half fearing communism, violent labor strikes in 1936-37, and most Americans expecting internal conflict (left vs. right) rather than external war, making the sudden shift to WWII unpredictable.
“Great Depression as you may know was a period of enormous uh internal polarization uh in the United States. I mean half of America thought that we living in the fascist decade. The other half thought we were living in the the the communist decade. No one believed there was any future for sort of liberal capitalism. We had uh violent labor strikes in in in 1936 37. Um, and people thought this nation was coming apart.”
The rise of fascism, defeat of France, Battle of Britain, and then Pearl Harbor changed everything—America went from being profoundly isolationist (exemplified by Charles Lindbergh and the America First Committee) to the arsenal of democracy, a shift that would have been hard to anticipate in 1938-39.
“the rise of fascism the defeat of France the battle of Britain and then suddenly everything changed right America started became the arsenal of democracy and eventually Pearl Harbor and all the rest of it it's amazing how profoundly isolationist we were as a country right up until that point right how hard that would have been to anticipate that shift”
The previous Fourth Turning, which involved the Great Depression and World War II, included total war and national revolutions across much of the world—all of Europe including Russia, South Asia (India's independence), China with enormous crisis and revolution, and Japan—all part of a global Fourth Turning.
“The last fourth turning which is really uh uh the great depression and world war II which involved total war or national revolutions in so much of the world right all of Europe including Russia South Asia, I mean India obviously got its independence. I mean, China with there was an enormous crisis and a revolution and in Japan and right I mean all of this right it was all part of a great forth turning”
The American Revolution involved substantial internal conflict (American patriots killing American Tories) in addition to external conflict with Britain, particularly in the South, demonstrating that Fourth Turnings have both internal and external dimensions simultaneously.
“The American Revolution, was that an external conflict of the American colonies against Parliament and and King George or was it internal? Actually, most of the killings in the American colonies were American patriots killing American Tories. You know what I mean? That's right. There was a huge amount of internal violence, particularly in the South, which was mostly Americans killing Americans”
Trump transcends the normal filibuster-constrained legislative process by using two mechanisms: inserting provisions into reconciliation bills (which require only 50 Senate votes) and using the Congressional Review Act to bypass normal procedures; this 'slow nuking' of the filibuster is a structural shift in how executive power works.
“If he's able to get around the filibuster um through these two important ways, one is is by putting stuff into the reconciliation bill that that should is not normally there or putting something into the uh Congressional Review Act. These are ways in which I I consider to be a kind of a slow nuking of the filibuster. And I I think we're on the way. I think ultimately the filibuster is a bad idea.”
Financial advisors and wealth managers should prioritize absolute return (wealth preservation and positive returns in all conditions) over relative return benchmarked to market indices like the S&P 500; advisors who focus on relative return are constrained by benchmarks that may perform poorly, while absolute return investors must deliver positive returns regardless of market conditions.
“my only advice would be when you talk to financial professionals um pay most attention to those that talk a lot about absolute return and don't get sidetracked in looking at the relative return to other indexes. Right? If people talk about relative return, they probably, you know, lashed and bound themselves, right, to the S&P 500. And you don't want to be at the mercy of where that goes.”
Stopping illegal foreign-born labor inflows will have enormous impact on employment, as foreign-born worker growth has driven more than half of US employment gains over the past 2.5 years post-COVID, with May 2025 being the first jobs report in years showing declining foreign-born employment and rising domestic-born employment.
“Right. And sorry to interrupt but just to put a quick clarification there. We're stopping the inflow of illegal foreignb born labor. There is still foreign labor coming into the country but it is a small fraction of what the total volumes were when you add in the legal system. Yes. So the CPS actually ask a question every month on their you know on their where they track unemployment and everything else they they ask are you born in the United States? So that is very simple. So we have actually been able to track that. Well, the the foreignb born growth rose hugely, you know, those postcoid uh you know, two years, two and a half years and and that was uh responsible for more than half of all US employment growth.”
Leaders are made by history, not born; historians and cyclical theorists who believe in generational cycles almost have to believe that leaders serve primarily a catalytic function rather than as independent forces driving their own direction.
“I think you could say the same thing for Abraham Lincoln... anyone who espouses as I do a fundamentally uh uh cyclical notion of of social moods and of generations and how they push social moods forward, right? generational aging and how that pushes social moods forward. Almost has to believe that leaders serve more as a catalytic function than as a as a sort of an independent force in moving off in their own direction.”
Bill Clinton frequently complained that his presidency lacked a real crisis and he never had the opportunity to be a transformational leader, receiving his only major crisis (Monica Lewinsky scandal) near the end of his term after the Cold War had already ended.
“some some presidents to the end of their term always complain that they never had a crisis. I mean Bill Clinton used to do that. Oh my god. That you know what happened in the 1990s? Almost nothing. You know what I mean? Uh except just before well the end of the cold war just before Bill Clinton became president.”
The world will not be the same after Trump; the United States will become more protected, more autarkic, with less trade and less capital inflow, which may be necessary to force fiscal discipline, representing a lasting structural shift in America's economic model and role in the world.
“but I will say this, the world will not be the same after Trump. Uh you know what I mean? The a lot of these things he's pushing toward toward toward barriers, toward walls. I mean, we are going to be a more protected economy. We are going to be more Ataric to use an economist word, right? Less trade. um there's going to be and and as a consequence less capital inflow.”
Potential energy for crisis is currently building—multiple dangerous flashpoints exist (Iran, India-Pakistan, China-Taiwan)—and the timing of when these flashpoints ignite remains unknown, but Americans should be aware that significant disruption is likely.
“I mean what if Trump has a huge confrontation of the Supreme Court? And and and and by the way, I think if the Democratic start do that, they would actually get a lot more respect from Americans than they do currently when they just sit there doing nothing.”
The risk of US recession in 2025 is significant not only because of Trump's policy contradictions, but because we were already overdue for recession before Trump—inverted yield curves, tight monetary conditions, and 18+ months of elevated recession indicators preceded his election, suggesting an economic downturn was inevitable regardless of his policies.
“Well, you know, look, I mean, last year and a half, I mean, we had an inverted yield curve. We had we had uh the US was tighter than the rest of the world. I mean, I I I I have been doing a indicator show, you know, and I go over these every month and and we had so many long-term recession indicators that were up over most of, you know, late 2023, 2024, going into 2025, right? So, it's almost as though we're kind of we were overdue already before Trump.”
Personal resilience—building social capital, knowing neighbors, growing food, preparing for potential home-front disruptions (cyber attacks, EMPs, satellite attacks)—is a critical preparation for the fourth turning; billionaires are already preparing with bunkers and underground facilities, signaling that they view significant disruptive risk as real.
“So you would then be long personal resilience heading into this future, you know, uh put put in a victory garden, you know, get to know your neighbors a little bit more, work on your social capital, that type of stuff. Absolutely.”
The filibuster rule in the Senate is fundamentally incompatible with democratic governance because it allows a minority to block the will of the majority; Alexander Hamilton argued in Federalist 22 that minority veto always leads to incapacity, sclerosis, and dysfunction.
“I think ultimately the filibuster is a bad idea. Uh particularly in a time like this. You know, there comes a time at which you simply have to let a majority uh govern. Yeah. Have to let a majority govern. Um the one of the most famous uh passages uh decrying uh filibuster rules was written by Alexander Hamilton. I believe it was Federalist 22. And you can just say how unfair and how um how uh reprehensible it is that you should have a law that enables a minority to prevail over a majority. He said this always leads to incapacity and sclerosis and dysfunction. He said it should never be allowed to happen.”
Trump showed prescience in recognizing three major long-term historical trends that others missed: the end of globalization and the need for American protectionism, the rise of populism and the opportunity for Republicans to steal the working class from Democrats, and the resurgence of conservative values both in the US and globally.
“I think also to to Donald Trump's credit some leaders see the future better than others and I think one of the things that's most impressive about Donald Trump when you consider his career is that He saw the future better than the leaders of either party when it came to this long-term this long-term move against globalization. um and the the uh and as well as this uh uh long-term move toward populism and and the populization that was going to that was going to occur in the Republican party and how the Republican party it's it its great opportunity was to steal the working class from the Democratic party even if it had to give up professionals along the way. And third, this longer term move toward um uh conservative values, which I think you're seeing uh is something that he was convinced that would happen, right?”
The United States has benefited greatly from having a prosperous democratic world order and the dollar as world reserve currency—what Valéry Giscard d'Estaing called an 'exorbitant privilege' that has been an enormous advantage for the United States for all these years—but the current regime believes this is a bad idea and is turning away from it.
“the United States has gotten a lot out out of having a uh a prosperous democratic world order if you know if that is one of the things that's gone along with globalization and certainly worked to our favor uh and certainly having the dollar as a world reserve currency has been an enormous uh uh you know to to quote Jizard Dang you know an exorbitant privilege that the United States has enjoyed for all these years. Uh but we have a regime now in place which thinks it's a bad idea and we're going to turn away from it.”
Even a conservative Supreme Court filled with Federalist Society justices will invoke the major questions doctrine to require Congress to decide important constitutional questions before the president can implement significant policy unilaterally.
“even a John Roberts court, even a John Roberts court filled with federalist society of conservatives is going to say, "No, Mr. President, Congress has to decide important questions." That is the major questions doctrine which almost all of these conservatives believe in. Congress has to actually say something right for this to be constitutional.”
The filibuster rule is fundamentally bad policy, especially in times of crisis, because it allows minorities to prevent majorities from governing, leading to incapacity and sclerosis—a principle Alexander Hamilton articulated in Federalist 22, arguing for majority rule and 'energy in government.'
“I think ultimately the filibuster is a bad idea. Uh particularly in a time like this. You know, there comes a time at which you simply have to let a majority uh govern.”
Interest rates could decline if the US enters a recession, which would temporarily favor bonds; investors should be cautious about shorting long-term bonds in the near term because recession-driven flight-to-safety could create a tactical opportunity for bond gains even if the long-term inflation trend favors real assets.
“There is a possibility that this year we could be moving into a recession. Absolutely. And if that happens, you're going to have to judge these medium to long-term trends with the possibility that short term we may go into something where, you know, holding bonds temporarily might be good, right? Interest rates would go down. In other words, some of these things may reverse a little bit near-term. not so much the sectoral shift of America but but some of these financial particularly in the area of interest rates. You you may actually find it for example if your idea to take advantage of uh rising inflation, rising real rates um is to go out and you know short a bunch of uh 10-year bond indexes later this year might not be a good time to do that.”
Leaders are made by history, not independent forces—they are catalytic figures whose options are constrained by generational dynamics and social moods; they neither drive history nor are purely passive but operate within a field of necessity shaped by generational aging and cyclical social trends.
“I think you could say the same thing for Abraham Lincoln. I mean, Abraham Lincoln's entire leadership experience consisted of a very unsuccessful one term in the House of Representatives as a wig who protested feebly and in vain against the Mexican-American War. And that was kind of it. I think otherwise his entire executive experience was running a a two a two-man lawyer, you know, law office. That was it. and yet suddenly he's thrust into the presidency and look at how he did, right?”
The trend across the West and the rest of the world has been a synchronization of turnings, where we are seeing a global generational shift toward populism, authoritarianism, and ethnocentrism that began after the 2008 financial crisis and is now accelerating with the Trump administration's explicit reversal of post-WWII globalization policies.
“I would say that the trend in the west certainly and now the rest of the world has been we've seen a synchronization of these turnings right that's where we that's where we are but it's global it's it's now global”
A major timetable of crisis decision points looms: Trump must decide on Iran by June, on the federal debt ceiling by July-August, and the reconciliation budget resolution will drive through major spending/tax changes by September, creating what Howe calls 'Christmas in September' with massive tax cuts and spending increases.
“he's gonna have to decide what to do about Iran. He's given an ultimatum to Iran in July or August. He's going to have to decide what to do about the federal debt ceiling, right? That's coming up and no later than September. Uh they're going to put through that reconciliation budget resolution.”
Trump's administration is trying to enforce diversity of viewpoints in universities through government policy and funding control; this is a major departure from the historical hands-off American approach to academic freedom and represents a new form of centralized control by government.
“the new White House wants to enforce a diversity of viewpoints in universities. Enforce a diversity of viewpoints. What does that sound like to you? When is the last time government actually intervened in monitoring viewpoints in a university? I mean, just think about that, Adam. We've never The government's never really interfered at all with what universities do. We let academics kind of do what they do and and and govern themselves. This is new, you have to admit.”
The 'Christmas in September' budget resolution that the Trump administration is planning will involve large tax cuts and spending increases disguised as normal budgetary process; if this occurs during a recession, some of it might be defensible as stimulus, but sooner or later the country needs to address its unsustainable fiscal trajectory.
“I mentioned earlier on this show uh that bit about Christmas in September. That's what they're planning for. Why why do I call it Christmas? Huge tax cuts and a lot of spending increases. And um uh now if we're in recession by then, well then you might say, 'Well, some of that might be good economic policy, but sooner or later, Adam, we need to get off of this course we're on when it comes to national savings. It it will kill us.'”
A potential dark-scenario outcome exists where Trump defies Supreme Court rulings and invokes Andrew Jackson's precedent ('John Roberts has made his decision, let him enforce it'), triggering a constitutional crisis where Democrats cease participating in normal legislative institutions and the system breaks down entirely.
“What if Trump has a huge confrontation of the Supreme Court? He doesn't Andrew Jackson. He just basically says, 'Well, you know, uh, you know, John Roberts has made his decision. Let him enforce it. Let him enforce it.' Yeah. So, if he does that, what are the Democrats going to do? I can envision a scenario where the Democrats will say, 'Well, wait a second. We're not doing anything through Congress.' Um, and you've just basically said we're going to rule without the courts. Why are we even sitting here in this institution, right? We're going to all start meeting up in Lake Placid, New York or something.”
The Fourth Turning is characterized by a tightening of top-down control and demand for government intervention to solve intractable problems, which appears contradictory to MAGA's deregulatory rhetoric but is actually consistent with collectivist Fourth Turning dynamics—as seen in Trump's enforcement of diversity viewpoint monitoring in universities and industrial policy through tariffs.
“the new White House wants to enforce a diversity of viewpoints in universities. Enforce a diversity of viewpoints. What does that sound like to you? When is the last time government actually intervened in monitoring viewpoints in a university? I mean, just think about that, Adam. We've never The government's never really interfered at all with what universities do.”
The transformation of Millennial investment behavior—choosing target-date funds that track the entire market rather than niche active funds—reflects both a belief that 'somebody will back them up' if the whole market falls and a collectivist preference to rise or fall with peers rather than compete individually, contrasting sharply with Gen X's lifeboat mentality of individual survival.
“I think one of the most interesting things about millennials is that they're all investing in um in target date funds. They're basically all just, you know, they're all investing in the entire market, right? Yeah. Uh because they're convinced that if if they invest in any little, you know, niche uh actively uh uh invested fund and that thing goes down, I don't know, filled with maybe some companies out of there in the Russell 2000, no one's going to care if they go bankrupt, right? But if they're invested like everybody else in the home market, someone will have to back them up.”
In a major power conflict involving the United States, America will not be protected as it has been in past wars due to cyber warfare, EMPs, and satellite attacks, meaning domestic infrastructure vulnerability is a real concern that most Americans ignore but wealthy individuals (Bill Gates, Oprah Winfrey) are already hedging via bunkers and underground compounds.
“if we have a if we have a a real uh crisis which involves some kind of public mobilization, remember that in any kind of major power conflict, the United States will not be protected as it has been in past wars. You know what I mean? Uh, you know, there are ways in which we our life here can be affected. you know, whether through this, you know, cyber wars or or or god knows EMPs or, you know, satellite attack. I mean, who knows what might actually happen, right? So, in other words, um we may we may face problems here at here at home.”
Trump as a Fourth Turning figure will necessarily 'knock big things off the shelves' of the institutional order and cause crisis until real institutional reshaping occurs, but whether or when a 'first turning' (golden age) emerges is indeterminate—Trump's contradictory policies and unfocused effort across multiple domains mean most policy balls will fail, leaving only the few that stick to drive actual change.
“And and it will it will it will knock big things off the the the the China shop shelves and and things will start breaking until you could get a real crisis, right? Um and and at that point, that's when you really reshape institutions, right? we in in ways which become creative, right, and which point the way toward a new order. Well, we haven't we haven't quite seen that yet, but we will eventually.”
A fourth turning requires not just policy upheaval but real crisis and public mobilization to force institutional reshaping; the specific nature of that catalyst—whether internal conflict, external war, or economic collapse—is historically unpredictable and often only becomes clear late in the fourth turning.
“History also suggests we need some sort of conflict, right? We need something that that would really ensure that people actually reshape institutions for a reason. All right? And and and and public mobilization. Now, it's interesting whether or not that could occur in response to an economic crisis. Typically, historically, it's occurred because it's, you know, it's been kinetic, right?”
The trend in the west and now the rest of the world has been a synchronization of turnings, where we are seeing a global fourth turning characterized by the decline of globalization, rise of populist and authoritarian leaders, and a shift from open trade to protectionism and nationalist policies.
“I would say that the trend in the west certainly and now the rest of the world has been we've seen a synchronization of these turnings right...the decline of globalization really started at the end of the GFC and it's now accelerating”
Gold has historically performed well during Fourth Turnings and continues to do so as the dollar declines and long-term inflation pressures build, making it a reliable hedge alongside defense ETFs.
“I would think would be good in this type of future as well. As as ever. As ever. And we'll see. I mean, we'll see that that the dollar hasn't been looking very good, right? And that's that whole problem of what the rest of the world is going to think about investing in America. Uh but but uh gold as u just like defense ETFs, right, has done very well as we've been moving into this uh new era, this new era of liberation. Uh and u it will it will probably continue to do well.”
AI is important for national security but is likely overpriced as an investment because it has been valued primarily for discretionary consumer benefits (entertainment, convenience) rather than for its strategic/defense applications; individual AI companies are particularly expensive, and even defense-related AI companies may not offer good value at current price levels.
“Look, AI is important, but it may be overpriced. You know what I mean? Because everyone's been on AI. And I think people are on AI more because of the whole discretionary economy side. You know, all the ways it'll make our lives easier. It'll choose all our entertainment for us and choose our vacations and um and and AI will be important. It's just I'm not sure it's priced at a point that it makes sense to invest in separately.”
Commodities, particularly through futures contracts rather than spot purchases, and across a wide diversified index rather than single commodities, will outperform over the next decade as fourth turning requires building and infrastructure investment; gold specifically has done well and will continue to do well as the dollar weakens.
“I think and and how to invest in commodities, that's a whole another discussion. There many various ways you can do it. At the very least, um you know, historically futures have done much better than spot and also you need to have a a very wide index because that you you have just tremendous volatility drag on a single commodity.”
Volatility is continually underrated heading forward; tail hedging strategies and instruments that profit from sudden large moves (straddles, out-of-the-money puts) are positioned to deliver outsized returns because the VIX and other volatility measures are underpricing the actual volatility expected in the next 3-6 months.
“volatility is going to be continually underrated moving forward and that gives the opportunity for certain kinds of um you know tail hedging strategies you know certain kinds of straddles. I think the the idea of sudden huge moves in the market that we've certainly seen recently, right, both on the downside and the upside is something that if you if you know that the the VEX as high as it is could actually be underestimating the volatility over the next six or you know three or six months that actually gives you an idea of of trades you can make, right?”
India and Pakistan are in a state of heightened tension that recently surfaced; Iran has been given an ultimatum by the Trump administration requiring a decision sometime in June; China's strategy toward Taiwan appears to be blockade/strangulation rather than invasion, using embargo or inspection of ships to slowly strangle the island and avoid direct military confrontation.
“I already mentioned the the Iran ultimatum. We have India and Pakistan sitting there somehow just recently came up last week. Uh and and obviously China, which looks in increasingly like it's not going to be invasion, it's going to be a strangulation. You know what I mean? It's going to be some sort of embargo or or or I don't know. China will start inspecting all the ships coming in and out to Taiwan as sort of, you know, a slow strangulation and try to avoid that coming to a see what Trump will do.”
The Trump administration is conducting a 'slow nuking of Congress' by using reconciliation processes and the Congressional Review Act to sidestep the 60-vote filibuster requirement, converting more policy areas from requiring 60 votes to 50-vote majority rule.
“I call the slow nuking of Congress of getting either working through reconciliation or looking working through the Congressional Review Act to bring more and more items in the 50% majority and getting around the 60 filibuster in the Senate.”
Risk management and intelligent hedging should be prioritized in investment strategies during the Fourth Turning, with a general philosophy of taking no losses and focusing on downside protection rather than upside capture.
“presumably in this type of era, um risk management, um intelligently using hedges, things like that. So, so prioritizing a bit more of first take no losses, right?”
Gen Xers when in their 20s and 30s had the attitude that only a few of them would survive and they wanted to be on the one thing that was above the rest—'lifeboats all headed out in different directions'—whereas millennials tie lifeboats together, going up or down as one community.
“Gen Xers when they were in their 20s and 30s, their attitude was only a few of us are going to survive. I want to be on that one thing that's above, you know, in other words, with Gen Xers, the lifeboats all headed out in different directions, right? Knowing that only a few of them are still going to be afloat. with millennials, they're tying the lifeboats together together.”
During a fourth turning, America will shift from a discretionary consumption and services economy toward a goods-production economy focused on building physical infrastructure and defense; this sectoral shift has major implications for equity investing—favoring defense ETFs, materials, energy, and infrastructure over consumer discretionary sectors.
“I think you have to think more about you know less um uh discretionary consumption um and uh a lot more investing particularly you know for instance you're mobilizing for conflict just think of all the manufacturing right think of all the defense ETFs have done superbly over the past three or four years Adam and and that trend is not stopped that's going to continue right yeah so defense infrastructure I would imagine you you put energy in there and materials. Materials of all kinds. I mean, materials always are huge in Fourth Turnings because everyone's building stuff.”
Trump should not be seen as an independent force driving history, but as a catalyst who unleashes primal forces already building in society; he plays an indispensable role in the fourth turning but does not fully understand or control where those forces go, consistent with Hegel's 'cunning of history' where great figures are instruments of deeper historical currents.
“Hegel I should quote Hegel here that great you know 19th century German idealist but he used to talk about the cunning of history and he says these these figures like Napoleon and Caesar and so on they they unleashed things that had to be unleashed but they didn't know what they were unleashing. You know what I mean?...It it's as though they the cunning of history is that these people play an absolutely indispensable role, but where history goes was not really in something they entirely understood. And I and I think Trump is can be legitimately seen as that kind of figure, a necessary figure, right? And will unleash something is in the process of unleashing something pretty primal.”
The shift from globalization to a more protected American economy with barriers to trade and labor will be lasting, not temporary, and will redefine America's sense of itself and its role in the world; this shift may be necessary to force the US to wean itself off foreign credit inflows and thereby compel fiscal reform.
“we are going to be a more protected economy. We are going to be more Ataric to use an economist word, right? Less trade. um there's going to be and and and as a consequence less capital inflow. Now that may be necessary as a condition to get our fiscal house in order. Maybe we first thing we need to do is wean ourselves off foreign credit inflows so that we are compelled to actually do something about our budget...this more protected America, this with with greater barriers both to labor and to trade and therefore to credit as well is going to be a lasting shift and it will redefine America uh both its sense of itself and its role in the world.”
When evaluating financial advisors, prioritize those focused on absolute return and wealth preservation rather than relative return (beating benchmarks), because relative return metrics often tie advisors to the S&P 500 or similar broad indices—if the entire market declines, beating the benchmark is meaningless.
“my only advice would be when you talk to financial professionals um pay most attention to those that talk a lot about absolute return and don't get sidetracked in looking at the relative return to other indexes. Right? If people talk about relative return, they probably, you know, lashed and bound themselves, right, to the S&P 500. And you don't want to be at the mercy of where that goes. You see what I mean?”
The 'America First' budget resolution name echoes Charles Lindbergh's 'America First Committee' from the 1930s isolationist era, demonstrating how historical patterns literally recur in language and leadership—Trump is not copying Lindbergh consciously but rather history repeating because the same generational and institutional dynamics are operating.
“one of the most popular uh Republicans at that time was was Charles Lindberg who was head of the one of the heads of the America first committee which the budget the budget resolution that now sitting there the reconciliation resolution is called the American first budget resolution. So this is how history literally comes back. You see what I mean?”
Most Americans would prefer Democrats to establish an independent governance structure and show backbone through opposition to Trump rather than maintain passive institutional absence, which would paradoxically increase Democrats' political standing even if it accelerates constitutional breakdown.
“and and and and and by the way, I think if the Democratic start do that, they would actually get a lot more respect from Americans than they do currently when they just sit there doing nothing. At least they'll have a backbone. They'll show that they're doing something, right? They'll show that they're in opposition.”
America is now well into a fourth turning, the bust part of its generational cycle where the old status quo falls apart, often chaotically, and is replaced by a brand new order, with the timing and trajectory of these cycles surprisingly predictable based on generational patterns.
“history tells us that civilizations and societies boom bust and then rise a new to repeat the pattern. A pattern that demographer Neil Howe says is surprisingly predictable in both its timing and trajectory. How refers to these seasons of societal change as turnings and is famously declared that America is now well into a fourth turning, the bust part of its cycle, where the status quo falls apart, often chaotically, and is replaced by a brand new order.”
When government strips universities of tax deductibility over ideological content, it is not merely defunding—it is redefining institutions as something other than universities, an institution-killing threat.
“when you start stripping people of their of their tax deductibility, that means you're actually redefining them as something other than a university. Yeah, that is true. That that's a pretty institution killing threat, right?”
Trump's core policy approach—having many initiatives in flight simultaneously and discarding those that don't work while doubling down on winners—is rooted in his business background and is fundamentally empirical and adaptive; he is willing to try many doors to see which ones open, rather than committing to a fixed master plan.
“when you look back at I think one of the best guides to to thinking about how Trump operates was his original art of the deal, which was back in the 1980s, right? And he basically talked about he says, 'I usually have 13 balls in the air at the same time. Most of them I know will fail. I just see which ones work.' I mean, here's a guy who's disarmingly honest about how his mind functions. He just tries to open a lot of doors, bangs on them, see which ones will open.”
Millennials are investing disproportionately in target-date funds and broad market index funds because they believe that if the entire market index fails, the government will rescue it; they reason that personal risk management is futile, so they pool risk with everyone else knowing that systemic rescues are politically inevitable.
“I think it's very much in the sensibility of the millennial generation to believe that. First of all, you know, they believe in community so that it it avoids the problem of being richer or poorer than your friends. You all go up or down together. Yeah. Which is very different because Gen Xers when they were in their 20s and 30s, their attitude was only a few of us are going to survive. I want to be on that one thing that's above”
The 90-day to 10-year yield curve is still inverted or flirting with inversion, and this is typically a sign of actual recession rather than just the beginning of an inversion, indicating economic slowdown is imminent.
“you look at the yield curve, you know, uh uh 90day, 10 year still still inverted. You know, we're still flirting with going from an inversion rack back to sort of, you know, back to normal, which is almost this typically a sign that you're actually in a recession, right?”
The government's threat to strip universities of tax deductibility if they don't enforce government-approved viewpoint diversity represents an unprecedented government intervention into academic freedom and is equivalent to an 'institution killing' threat.
“when you start stripping people of their of their tax deductibility, that means you're actually redefining them as something other than a university. Yeah, that is true. That that's a pretty institution killing threat, right?”
Trump demonstrated precience in recognizing long-term structural shifts toward nationalism, populism, and conservative values before most political leaders in 2016, suggesting that seeing the future better than contemporaries is a key skill for navigating Fourth Turnings, not just reacting to them.
“I think also to to Donald Trump's credit some leaders see the future better than others and I think one of the things that's most impressive about Donald Trump when you consider his career is that He saw the future better than the leaders of either party when it came to this long-term this long-term move against globalization. um and the the uh and as well as this uh uh long-term move toward populism and and the populization that was going to that was going to occur in the Republican party and how the Republican party it's it its great opportunity was to steal the working class from the Democratic party even if it had to give up professionals along the way.”
Historically, long-term inflation is the primary economic concern heading into a Fourth Turning transformation, while inflation in a crisis is a solution (a way of distributing burdens) rather than a problem, making nominal bonds and fixed-income securities a poor long-term hedge.
“you know one of them is um I I certainly believe as a long-term trend over the next 10 years inflation is to worry about right inflation in a crisis is not a problem it's a solution uh it is a it's a way of sharing burdens and it's very important to understand that if we ever have to mobilize if we have have to start consuming less and investing more either paying back our debts or paying for defense or doing all the other things net exports or whatever we have to do. Inflation is a way of equalizing burdens. What do you do? You take away from creditors. Anyone who's purchased a nominal bond.”
The composition of the economy will shift significantly, with movement away from discretionary consumption and toward investment, particularly in defense and infrastructure—defense ETFs have performed superbly over the past 3–4 years and will likely continue, alongside energy and materials sectors that benefit from rebuilding activity.
“I also think this is a longer subject but I also think the the very um composition of our economy will shift and that has huge implications for what kind of equities to invest in. I think you have to think more about you know less um uh discretionary consumption um and uh a lot more investing particularly you know for instance you're mobilizing for conflict just think of all the manufacturing right think of all the defense ETFs have done superbly over the past three or four years Adam and and that trend is not stopped that's going to continue right”
Second Turnings (awakenings) are youth-led rebellions against solid institutional orders built by elders (e.g., 1960s-1980s rebellion against WWII-generation order), which degrade the establishment and create new individualistic values, while Fourth Turnings move in the opposite direction—from individualism toward rebuilding powerful civic institutions.
“that's the classic, you know, second turning, fourth turning pattern. ... We're going through in the fourth turning the opposite, right? Is where you have a world of individualism and you're rebuilding much more powerful civic institutions. So this is the the the second turning and the and the fourth turning, the awakening and the crisis are social dynamics at at the opposite ends of the cycle.”
Winston Churchill famously said 'Americans always do the right thing after they've exhausted all the alternatives,' and Trump is currently busy exhausting alternatives—which is a functional way to think about his trial-and-error approach if eventually leads to correct courses.
“And you know, coming from the business world and you and I, you know, guessing like it's not that different from the VC model. I mean, we've seen lots of analogies of that. you you try everything. Um and and in a way, you know, this is a famous, you know, quote by Winston Churchill. Um you know, Americans almost always do the right thing after they've exhausted all the alternatives. And you have to say that Donald Trump is busy exhausting a lot of alternatives, right?”
In Fourth Turnings, you rebuild the public world and build real physical things (as opposed to the experiential/service economy of recent decades), which aligns with Peter Thiel's vision of actually building things that will take us places rather than creating experiences.
“There's a fourth turning. We rebuild the public world. We're actually building things. This is Peter Teal's vision. You remember that? Yeah. Instead of just instead of just characters, we actually will be building those actual things that will take us places, right?”
During a Fourth Turning, there is a tightening of top-down control both because change agents and governments try to impose a new framework and because the populace demands more government to solve big intractable problems.
“during a forth turning, you get this um tightening of top- down control. Um, one because the the change agent and governments are trying to impose the their new framework on things, but also you get a you get a pull for it from the populace. The populace demands more of government to sort of solve the the big intractable problems.”
Peter Thiel's vision of actually building real things (not just digital experiences) aligns with the transition into the first turning, where the focus shifts from virtual/digital to physical infrastructure and manufacturing.
“This is Peter Teal's vision. You remember that? Yeah. Instead of just instead of just characters, we actually will be building those actual things that will take us places, right?”
Trump as a chaos agent and change agent who breaks down sclerotic systems to create new paths forward is classic Fourth Turning behavior, and while observers may be transfixed by the details of how it unfolds, Howe is not surprised by the script itself.
“To me, that feels like classic forth turning, right? You got this sclerotic system and so you get people in there that have to start breaking it down um to to then create a new path for things to actually get done... No, I'm not surprised at all... You would have expected whether it wasn't Trump himself, somebody like this eventually to get into the system during a fourth turning, right?”
A second turning (awakening) is characterized by youth-led rebellion against the solid order built by the previous generation and degrades the establishment; a fourth turning is the opposite—a rebuilding of powerful civic institutions in response to a world of individualism. These are social dynamics at opposite ends of the cycle.
“you have a youthledd rebellion against a system built by old people that frees up the system, right? Creates a new world of individualism, right? it it it degrades the establishment and creates a new more individualistic order. We're going through in the fourth turning the opposite, right? Is where you have a world of individualism and you're rebuilding much more powerful civic institutions. So this is the the the second turning and the and the fourth turning, the awakening and the crisis are social dynamics at at the opposite ends of the cycle.”
Plate tectonics is a good metaphor for Fourth Turnings—shifting of major forces that will happen regardless, and everybody else figures out how to play their role at the time these shifts are happening; the shifts are punctuated equilibrium with no change then suddenly boom, things shift quickly.
“when I think about the fourth turning and I hear you talk about it to me, it reminds me a lot of plate tectonics, which is like these are just the the shift the shifting of these major forces and they are going to happen, right? And everybody else is just sort of figuring out how to play their role at the time that these these shifts are happening... the potential energy builds up and then you have a an earthquake or a volcano you know suddenly things move. In other words, it's a punctuated equilibrium, right? There there's no change and then suddenly boom, things shift quickly, right?”
Personal resilience—gardens, community relationships, social capital—is the primary hedge against Fourth Turning disruption, and Howe is writing a book on what to do during this period, to be published next year by Simon and Schuster.
“So, so so you would then be long personal resilience heading into this future, you know, uh put put in a victory garden, you know, get to know your neighbors a little bit more, work on your social capital, that type of stuff. Absolutely. And in fact, I'm I'm uh currently writing a book on that. That's my next book sort of on what to do right this new period. So, Oh, really? Well, that'll be that'll be out next year that says Simon and Chester, just like my last book.”
Trump deserves credit for his willingness to brook near-term pain for long-term gain, but instead of spending the pain on cutting the deficit (which Republicans would hugely support), he's trying to work both sides—tariffs plus deficit expansion—which won't work well together.
“As long as as as Donald Trump and and you know, I I congratulate him for this is willing to brookke nearterm pain for long-term gain, which I think is a lotable idea, right?... why don't you spend the pain on cutting the deficit and and the Republicans would hugely back you on that, right? He would have no problem getting his entire party to vote for that agenda. You see what I mean? But instead, it's kind of he's trying to work one side on the trade and another side on the deficit. It It's not going to go down well together.”
Volatility will be continually underrated in the coming years, creating opportunities for tail-hedging strategies and straddles; the VIX can persist at low levels (even 12) before sudden large market moves, making out-of-the-money options far out on the curve cheap relative to realized volatility.
“um volatility is going to be continually underrated moving forward and that gives the opportunity for certain kinds of um you know tail hedging strategies you know certain kinds of straddles. I think the the idea of sudden huge moves in the market that we've certainly seen recently, right, both on the downside and the upside is something that if you if you know that the the VEX as high as it is could actually be underestimating the volatility over the next six or you know three or six months that actually gives you an idea of of trades you can make, right?”
The first turning will not emerge before the 2030s; while potential energy for crisis is present now, we cannot yet predict whether the catalyst will be internal (civil breakdown) or external (war), though the structure of possible outcomes is clear—this distinction between internal and external crisis was undetermined even during the Great Depression and WWII.
“Well, a golden age is is a first turning. But of course whether or not Trump secures it and when that will come about totally up for grabs. I I'm not saying it it's going to be. But could it be is it a contender to be a first turning here? No, because I don't even think the timing is right. I mean, the first turning is something that's going to happen, at least in my reckoning, something in the 2030s, right? And and I don't see we're close to that.”
Trump's approach to Ukraine policy (approaching negotiations, offering mineral deals, conditional defense support) reflects his opportunistic method—he 'banged on the door' to see if it would open, and when it didn't open the way he expected, he pivoted to a different approach (mineral deals).
“We saw that same thing recently with Voteir Zalinski in Ukraine. We banged on that door a little bit and said, "Ah, well, you know, probably we're not going to have the kind of peace I thought." So, I don't know. Let's do a deal. And that way then, you know, a deal on minerals, right? that way. Ukraine is partly ours and maybe now we'll defend it.”
AI is likely overpriced despite its long-term importance, because market enthusiasm is driven by discretionary economy applications (personalized entertainment, convenience features) rather than hard infrastructure needs; individual AI companies, especially those with astronomical valuations, may not offer good risk-adjusted returns even if AI itself is strategically important.
“Look, AI is important, but it may be overpriced. You know what I mean? Because everyone's been on AI. And I think people are on AI more because of the whole discretionary economy side. You know, all the ways it'll make our lives easier. It'll choose all our entertainment for us and choose our vacations and um and and AI will be important. It's just I'm not sure it's priced at a point that it makes sense to invest in separately.”
The first turning (prosperity phase of a generational cycle) in America is expected to begin sometime around the early-to-mid 2030s, not sooner; Trump's current policies may not produce the golden age he promises because the timing is premature and because contradictions in his policy bundle make success unlikely.
“Well, a golden age is is a first turning. But of course whether or not Trump secures it and when that will come about totally up for grabs. I I'm not saying it it's going to be. But could it be is it a contender to be a first turning here? No, because I don't even think the timing is right. I mean, the first turning is something that's going to happen, at least in my reckoning, something in the 2030s, right?”
Recession is a substantial near-term risk (2025), separate from longer-term Fourth Turning trends, and investors must manage the possibility that short-term market moves (interest rate declines, bond rallies) contradict the longer-term inflation narrative, requiring tactical flexibility.
“Now, let me just say these are all longer term trends, Adam. There is a possibility that this year we could be moving into a recession. Absolutely. And if that happens, you're going to have to judge these medium to long-term trends with the possibility that short term we may go into something where, you know, holding bonds temporarily might be good, right? Interest rates would go down.”
India's second turning involved Indira Gandhi (youth-led rebellion against establishment), demonstrating that the awakening pattern was not unique to Western countries but part of a global generational dynamic.
“You had it with Indira Gandhi and India”
Commodity investment should prioritize futures over spot pricing and use wide diversified indexes rather than single commodities to manage volatility drag, and this applies across inflation hedging and Fourth Turning asset allocation.
“there many various ways you can do it. At the very least, um you know, historically futures have done much better than spot and also you need to have a a very wide index because that you you have just tremendous volatility drag on a single commodity. So those are some basic rules, Adam.”
The Constitution is roughly two-thirds Article One, which is all about Congress and the powers of Congress, but no one ever informed Trump that most of the Constitution is about the powers of Congress and the president is supposed to enact what Congress and the executive agree on together, not act unilaterally.
“as many people have tried to remind Donald Trump, if you look at the Constitution, roughly twothirds of it is is article one. It's all about Congress and and somehow no one ever informed Trump that most of the Congress is about the powers of Congress, right? And the president is just supposed to, you know, enact and be the executive of what of what the executive and Congress together. um uh agree on, right?”
Presidents who do not face a major crisis often complain about their lack of ability to accomplish transformational change; Bill Clinton famously complained during his peaceful presidency that 'nothing happened' and that he never had the chance to address a major national crisis.
“some some some presidents to the end of their term always complain that they never had a crisis. I mean Bill Clinton used to do that. Oh my god. That you know what happened in the 1990s? Almost nothing. You know what I mean? Uh except just before well the end of the cold war just before Bill Clinton became president. But the point is he always used to complain. I never really could do much.”
Howe is currently writing a book on what to do in this new period, forthcoming from Simon & Schuster, which will expand on Fourth Turning preparation and personal/community resilience strategies.
“I'm I'm I'm uh currently writing a book on that. That's my next book sort of on what to do right this new period. So, Oh, really? Well, that'll be that'll be out next year that says Simon and Chester, just like my last book.”